Fred Winter

He's not going to raise her more than 13lbs. That'd be very harsh. We'll see, if she's under 130 I'll be cuffed to bits.

Could mean that Henderson believes AML can't live with Grandouet, hence the Fred Winter still being the target

Good luck CV, maybe the hcper won't watch the video...

If she's under 130, i'll give up the game

If she's under 135 i'll give up the game.

She'll still win the FW off 135, calm down lads

It was a stupid idea to run against something rated 129 though, he should have tried finding a really bad race.

18l beating of a 129 rated horse getting 15lbs = 132 so anywhere in the low 130's is where she'll be at and run off around 11-8  in the fred winter.

an 18l beating of a pantxoa who is rated 129 but she was getting 15lbs i reckon 127-130 any more than that then they have to go for the truimph hurdle. imo thats where she should be anyway especially with the mares allowance the owners should have there say on this one she jumps brillantly she stays and in a very open year id rather be placed in a truimph hurdle than win a fred winter especially with a filly too

Far better winning a fred winter than placing in a triumph.

Plus when he already has the winner of the triumph, many decent horses have run in the fred winter in the past.

Excuse my ignorance but when will we find out her new mark?

CV I'd say the handicapper has been very harsh on the Juveniles as a crop this year, looking through some of the triumph hurdle entries and their respective best RPRs and the ORs they have achieved...

Architrave - RPR 121, OR 136
Danceintothelight - 110, 128
First Fandango - 110, 124
Houbon Des Obeaux - 137, 148
Local Hero - 130, 141
Marsh Warbler - 140, 151
Meetings Man - 114, 122
Pantxoa - 107, 129
Pullyourfingerout - 120, 130
Titan De Sarti - 113, 123

Through Two Kisses today she should get an almost identical rating to Grandouet of 145. Literally through Pantxoa she should 132, but she won very easily and taking the Grandouet/A Media Luz Newbury race as an example he usually gives a 'very easy' winner an extra 5lbs on top of the literal reading. This would of course leave A Media Luz off a mark of 137.

He could even raise Pantxoa from his mark of 129, as he's always been well thought of by the Kings and has obviously improved on his RPR judging by the distance back to Two Kisses and the rest.

I reckon she'll get an RPR of the high 120s for the race (With Two Kisses running a 5lb worse or so race than last time) meaning she'll probably get an official rating in all likelehood of the high 130s minimum.

She's obviously progressing very nicely and in my opinion something in the below the Mid 130s can be something connections should only dream of. Anything below 136ish is a massive bonus.

If NJH was keen on the Fred Winter, why did he not find a race about 5 days from the festival, win it and run with a penalty. I even thought they might have waited till the Imperial Cup on the sat and catch the bonus.
Hope it goes for the Triumph as I'm on at 20s but took the 10s for the FW as insurance

She settled nicely today duncers

Ekbalco - i don't think RPRs take into account WFA when they rate juvenile hurdlers. that's why they always appear so low, especially early season.

Extreme conviction not ekbalco.

Good point Dan. Cheers for pointing that out. Still can't get away from a mark above 135 though looking at how he's rated other inferior horses. 137 in my guess.

Off topic, but, hopeful of a good run on Saturday, dan ?

When you look at the rating of Mark Twain on an OR of 134(arguably too high imo). 3rd in the race behind A Media Luz and Grandouet I can't see her being any lower than high 130's. I'm not sure what Henderson was doing if he thought she was a Fred Winter horse. You don't run a Fred Winter horse against decent sorts and more importantly for the HC yard sticks and trounce them looking between your legs! There is no doubt in my mind she's good enough to battle it out for the Triumph and she will be ridiculuosly lucky to again get a leniant mark.

Yeah hopeful TD, Brian's happy with him. I don't think the ground will be soft enough for him to win a race like that, but i'm sure he'll give it a good go!

Best of luck with him, think he'll run a big race!

Cheers, fingers crossed!

new ratings will be issued at 8.30 next tuesday morning , looks like there will be alot of nervous triumph/fred winter backers until then im hoping for a rating close to 140 which would force her to run in the triumph, people must remember aswel that brampour won handy today, and it will be deep in handicappers mind that aml would have beaten brampour bar the fall so i reckon aml's rating will be higher than brampour, what will brampours be??? also today was a class 2 race, tried to find some previous ratings trends but last years winner sang bleu was only seen end of this year over fences, anyone any idea who won this race in 09'

Agreed, Ekbalco, she's definitely getting her act together....i do think another reason why NJH is preferring the Fred Winter is that the races are run on diferent corses (old and new) and the Triumph presents the slightly stiffer test of stamina....speed and jumping are going to be her main weapons, not stamina.

Given an RPR of 133 for the race. Something around the 140 mark looking likely.

If she's given a rating of 140 will NH aim her at the Triumph?

Given she would only need to find 10lbs to win a very good Triumph I hope so.

Where will the new rating be published at 8.30?

Ive just been on the BHA website & theres nothing on there yet.

there put up every wednesday morning at 8.30

Also in The Weekender/Raceform Update on Wednesdays

137. I'd probably want be a backer in the FW off that mark.

I made the mistake of backing Crack Away Jack at 5/1 before the weights were out a couple of year ago and he went out to 16/1 so I'm not making that mistake again.

This race was started to make the Triumph a less demanding race on 4yo's so you tend to get alot of horses who aren't quite up to top class.

A Media Luz is along way short of being Nicky Henderson's top novice and she'd be no certainty in this. I doubt if the handicapper will be doing her any favours.

I'd want to know what Steve Gollins decide to do with Local hero before jumping in. He's a real classy horse and I'd have him over her any day on the week.

Tough race to be stabbing an AP guess at as none that run will be considered world beaters by their trainers or would be running in the Triumph.

Topweights last year ran off 135 (both were geldings)....given that she will get allowance in Triumph, i'd say that mark makes it very hard to know which way they'll decide. If they go for Fred Winter, i'm absolutely certain you'll hear Mick Fitz say 'if she cant win this off 137, she'd have had no chance in the Triumph' at some stage (like that helps at all)!

yeah it might be easier for her to win the triumph than a FW off 137, but there are a fair few rated in the high 140s this season, and the facts she'd almost crtainly prefer the easier track and the yard have the triumph fav already - my guess is they'll go FW.

They'll probably still go for the fred winter but I'm pretty angry at henderson for costing this horse a serious chance of winning this race. She was on 119 and a penalty was all she needed to get in. she'll shoulder top weight and not win this race now.

Antepost book crumbling these past few days

They might as well run her in the Triumph IMO. To win a Fred Winter you need plenty in hand. Off top weight and with a sex allowance she has just as much chance in the Triumph. They certainly fcuked up her mark if the Fred Winter was always the plan.

Well henderson said she's not good enough for the triumph so that's pretty much it. He said fred winter is the aim and given she's now a 5/1 shout for the race and he already has the fav for the triumph it's a no brainer.

where is everyone getting the 137 from?? , is it not officaly known until tomorrow ??

It is 137.

I also backed her before her last run, and am quite disappointed. She would have a chance off 137, but there will surely be better handicapped horses in the field that have been properly plotted for it.  Just think how far she'd have won by under a penalty

A lot of people seem to be taking it for granted she will act on the track not to mention cope with the occasion.

Credit must go to Nicky Henderson imv, for dispelling the myth that is "plot jobs" in racing

Why is she still 5/1 for the Fred Winter? Who on earth would touch her at those odds?

If she's 5/1 on the day it's more than fair imo, it's difficult at the moment to see any credible opposition. Surely Sailor's Warn must get a similar mark, given he's achieved more than A Media Luz so she might not have to lump top weight round.

at 137 shell carry top weight in fred winter with no mares allowance surely shell go for triumph only carrying 10'7 , anyone any idea when the weights for the fred winter wud be known

I have to agree with CVByrne. Right now we would have no clue what's going to run in the race.

Not a race to be backing AP on. you could back A Media Luz today and by Monday be wishing you hadn't.

Best left alone for a couple of weeks and bet when we have more idea what is actually going to run

It's different taking the 14/1 on offer when she had a 119 rating, but there is no real upside to backing her now and waiting till nrnb.

Still with Henderson having the fav for the Troumph and with AML being the current fav for the Fred Winter you'd expect her to take her chance in this.

Why? I just don't know why you would go for the Fred Winter on 137!? She get's 7lbs anyway in the Triumph so she only has to find a few pounds to win it. Whereas she could go for the Fred Winter against a bunch of horses that have been campaigned for the race with a decent mark. She would have to run to a mark simular to what she would to win the Triumph to win the Fred Winter. If they think the track makes that much of a difference fair enough but if she's not good enough to win a Triumph she's going to struggle off that mark in the Fred Winter.

Agree with all those points Masterminded, but as CVB says, if they think Grandouet is better, they will want to try and win both races wont they? If you were NJH, wouldnt you think it was daft to have the two of them take each other on?

Ye I agree with that. I just don't agree with the she's not good enough so she will run in the Fred Winter theory.

yeah exactly carrying top weight in fred winter or 10'7 in triumph , its much an much, no way you cud say the fred winter is an easier option esp with so many horses unexposed, just on your point 'cant catch me' about henderson wanting to win both i was of this view also but then you have to remember its not hendersons choice if the owners think they have a chance of winning a grade1 i.e. triumph they will surely take their chance ,

Well Hendo thinks she isn't good enough and was always going to aim at the Fred Winter, he's hardly going to change his mind now given she's fav for the race and he has Grandouet as fav for the Triumph, he's out classed AML fair and square.

Think of the owners, Hendo is saying to them Grandouet is better than AML, I want to send her for the Fred winter. You're hardly going to argue with him especially when your horse is 5/1 for the race.

Take your point, but still think it seldom works like tha j2010. NJH will be advising the owners, and he is bound to try and talk them into a position where he has one in each imo. And not many owners would over rule their trainer...

I agree with that too MM.

"I'd like to go to the Fred Winter with her, that's always been the objective and I think that's where she belongs. Grandouet beat her at Newbury pretty comfortably and that tells you all you need to know."

Might be worth doing an e/w double on the two of them especially if AML can win of 137 then Grandouet must have a stonking chance in the Triumph. nrnb of course.

Though I do agree a 4 1/2l defeat by Grandouet followed up by what would have been to easy wins means she deserves to run in the Triumph. She is clearly a very good horse indeed.

Plots or no plots, class can tell in this race.
We know Sanctuaire last year was chucked in, but I also remember Crack Away Jack and Ashkazar finishing a mile clear of the field in this race and they, I think, were the top two in the weights.
I agree top weight is not ideal, but if NJH reckons AML has the class to win it, why not go for it when, as you boys have explained, you already the Triumph fav a couple of boxes along in the yard?

anyone know when the fred winter prices were available, i backed her end of november but it doesnt state the race , this is prob my only hope now at this stage  :)

cant believe there were any Fred Winter prices available in November

That would have ben the triumph. Fred winter only opened up this year.

Agree wholeheartedly with you CVByrne. wtf did NJH run her in a poxy egg n spoon nov race then pick up 18lbs when he could have waited for a 5lb penalty. Outragously bad training, imho

I think he was worried 124 might not be good enough to get in off given how high the juveniles are being rated this season, also if anything went wrong and he failed to win with her he'd miss the festival completely.

I think he thought the race is there, might as well go for it. I don't think he thought she'd go and win like that. 10-12lb rise might have been what he factored.

AP to ride Grandouet and BG will be on AML with 7lbs allowance.
Mares have a great record in race
AML is Gp3 placed on flat so jumping placed or winner in black type race is worth more than a winner in FW
She will stay alright

There's always the possibility that she doesn't handle races well enough to turn out again a few days later and so rules out the penalty option. I can't believe Henderson would be silly enough not to have thought it the best option, it makes most sense to me at least that she just isn't able to come out and give her true running again say 3 days after a race.

Read Hendersons comments below, he said those after the race. He doesn't think she's good enough for the triumph and since she's fav for the Fred Winter there's no reason for him to change his mind

CV do you really believe shes not good enough for the Triumph but she will win the Fred Winter off 137?

No, I think Henderson thinks Grandouet is better and that she'd be better off in the Fred Winter.

Why would she be better off in the Triumph though? As has been said before she would be better off placing in the Triumph. Fwiw Grandoet's beating of her at Newbury should not be taken at face value. I was there and she still was a very fizzy horse. She's very progressive so I think it's dangerous to believe that Grandoet is greatly superior to her. Anyway she runs where she runs but she would have just as much chance winning the Triumph and if I were an owner/breeder and she was mine she would run in the Triumph.

Yep Masterminded I agree

Masterminded have you backed her for the triumph?

'' Fwiw Grandoet's beating of her at Newbury should not be taken at face value. I was there and she still was a very fizzy horse. She's very progressive so I think it's dangerous to believe that Grandoet is greatly superior to her.''


Would agree with that whilst adding i'd still be a little worried about her temperament for Cheltenham...she's been calmer the last 2 but there's plenty of distractions at the Festival

Any chance they would stick Bass on her to take a few pounds off?

Albion Dan

Obviously NJH rates Grandouet a better horse, but you could also say Sam Winner is better the Gran as he thumped him at Cheltenham earlier in the season. But horses do improve and constantly make us look like fools. I do believe AML is much more settled and her jumping has always been superb from day One. If she was mine, I would opt for the Triumph with BJ on board

Can this please end the debate? From Barry Geraghty

I did travel for yesterday’s meeting at Huntingdon, where A Media Luz cantered up in the juvenile hurdle. She had been unlucky when she fell two-out at Kempton last time, and is a lovely mare. The Fred Winter Hurdle at Cheltenham is her next target.

CV have backed her in both. Admittedly at much larger odds for the Triumph. Fair enough if that's where she goes.

Thats trainer after the race and Jockey in his blog. Now just need to hype her up big time and lay my stake back on the day, I've a pretty decent sized bet on @ 14/1.

ok 'CVBynre' can u please tell me what blog ur quote from barry gerathy came from this is his quote from attheraces last saturday -
You couldn’t fault the performance of A Media Luz at Huntingdon on Thursday although I feel the form of the race is questionable as I’m not convinced the two horses in the race with form, Pantxoa and Two Kisses gave their true form. It depends on how the handicapper interprets the race as to where she goes next and whether the Fred Winter is an option
since then shes been given a mark of 137
where u getting ur quote from and when???

^ CV LINK PLEASE.

well lets give him the benfit of the doubt here but i hope hes not lying about quotes

C'mon I think I've posted on here long enough for people to know I'm not a liar.

Geraghty is the Irish Racing Ambassador and he has a weekly column on goracing.ie

here's the link to his blog I quote from. It's at the bottom of the 3rd paragraph

http://www.goracing.ie/HRI/Whats-On/Whats-Happening/Barry-Geraghty-Diary/Fri...

TBF that was b4 she got her mark so it's still up in the air IMO

didnt know about this blog can u post the proper link wudnt mind reading it

http://www.goracing.ie/HRI/Whats-On/Whats-Happening/Barry-Geraghty-Diary/Fri...

Sorry it's on the left there. The dates of his blog.

think its gone off the site , something wrong with the site, money for aml on here today in triumph market is very very interesting

Goes for Triupmh

on page 12 of the racing post she goes for the triumph

Triumph it is! BOOOOOOOOOM

Fcuking Henderson. Stupid to fcuk up her mark like that.

Anyway, not surprised given my luck at the moment.

I hope she gets smashed in the triumph, so hendo will learn his lesson

Get in! Who says he was messing up her mark? He's not exactly short of experience in getting them ready for handicaps. Perhaps they wanted to see how good she was. You can rule out her first two runs in this country as she was buzzed up and didn't settle. Since they applied the ear plugs she's improved dramatically. She'll have the best flat form in the Triumph, looks all class and with the mares' allowance I think she is still good ew value at 14/1 with sportingbet. Hope you didn't smash your toys when you threw them out of the pram[>o]

CV grow up and take it on the chin. That's antepost betting.

wats the link, cant see it ??

Binocular retains his crown then it's a winking A R S E till AML wins the Triumph

Nicky Henderson has effectively ruled Punchestowns out of the Cheltenham Festival and is considering giving the chestnut a run at the racecourse which has lent him his name.

Although entered in both the totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup and the Ladbrokes World Hurdle, Henderson is looking away from those events.

Punchestowns finally managed a win this season with a fairly unconvincing defeat of Pasco at Kempton last month.

"I think we can say Punchestowns won't be here," said the trainer at a Cheltenham press conference on Wednesday.

"I don't think he'll win a Gold Cup or a World Hurdle so we are better to stay out of it. There's Aintree and we've always said he should run at Punchestown one year. Maybe it could be this year. That would be over fences."

Henderson admitted the publication of the weights for the Festival handicaps had thrown him into confusion.

His Molotof is the top weight for the Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle while A Media Luz, who was to be diverted to the Triumph Hurdle instead, has 11st 4lb.

"Our plans have rather fallen out of synch, especially with the four-year-olds," he said.

"What we thought was sorted a fortnight ago has now fallen out of order - some are now in and some are now out - and we need to go away and have a think."

Henderson said it was "more likely than unlikely" that Riverside Theatre would contest the Ryanair Chase after a brief chat with connections this week while he has not made up his mind about a Cheltenham target for French Opera.

The Game Spirit Chase winner is top weight of 11st 12lb - 6lb higher than next best Tchico Polos - in the Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase.

However much the trainer would like to win the event commemorating his father, he is also considering the sportingbet.com Queen Mother Champion Chase.

"I haven't discussed it with the owner yet," he said.

"He and Mad Max are in both races. On the one hand it could help horses like Anquetta at the bottom of the weights, and I could claim off French Opera, but on the other they all have different owners."


I still reckon she will end up in the FW