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I'm on Binocular, Peddlers Cross and Hurricane Fly at nice prices but that's the order of their chances in my opinion.
Aside from the possible temparement isues, Hurricane Fly has no Cheltenham experience and has been beating the same nag all season, in a country where there are no top 2m hurdlers. It is a proven major trend in the last 20 years that a Champion Hurdler has Cheltenham experience. |
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CV - I have other reservations against the horse; I don't think he'll find anything off the bridle, and like Ballydoyle I think his form is nothing to shout about, but that's just my opinion! I'm not trying to push my opinion on to anyone, I was merely stating why I have concerns about horse being able to handle the atmosphere of a festival!
Everyone has their own opinion on this, but no obvious way of backing it up, because the truth is, having never run at the festival before, no one knows how he'll react to it, and while people can guess that he'll be ok, I have it good authority from someone who knows more about the nature of horses than any of us that there is a good chance he won't! If people want to take anything from that, they should be allowed too, but in all honesty I find it a touch offensive that the point I made is being argued against by people like yourself, who although obviously a horse racing fan, know very little I suspect about the nature of horses and their behavioral patters! When you have a first class degree in equine science, and have worked with horses day in day out for three years, you are then qualified to argue against this theory. |
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Cheltenham experience isn't that important, especially when it comes to Willie's runners. All ofhis six Cheltenham bumper winners had never run at Cheltenham before they won. Quevega had never run before she won her first Mares Hurdle, Mikael never ran at Cheltenham before he won his Neptune Investments' Hurdle, Rule Supreme had never run at Cheltenham before he won his RSA Chase etc.
So all of the points you have put up are invaled. Seven-year-olds not having the 'right attitude' to win the CH = crap. The fact that HF hasn't run outside of Ireland for the past two years = absolute garbage. And the fact he hasn't run at Cheltenham before = Just like at least half of the winners at each festival year in-year out. I've no problem with somebody knocking a horse's chances legitimately but these reasons are definitely unfounded. |
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You've still not understood my point. Nevermind.
I'm not talking about 7-year-olds not having the right attitude to win the Champion Hurdle, I am talking about horses aged 6 or 7 not having the same capabilities to adapt to change as those aged 4 or 5. If you're not going to read what ive written properly, then stop wasting everyone's time in replying to it! |
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What do you mean adapt to change? Running at Cheltenham for the first time when he's seven? If anything, I would have thought that's an advantage as he now has plenty of experience, both mentally & physically, heading to Cheltenham for the first time.
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How old was Quevega!? 5.
How old was Mikael D'Haguenet!? 5. Rule Supreme was 8 but i'll think you'll find he ran over here at Kempton before hand, and finished 3rd. |
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That's a fair point Childomine - add Cooldine to that list also I believe.
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Cooldine ran in the Bumper behind Cork All Star.
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Oh I respect your opinion. Everyone has opinions, but discussion throws up things one has overlooked. It's up to everyone to rate how much those opinions of others matter.
For example, I've a masters degree in statistics so I always look to trends and see if they apply to the official or not. For example it's not surprising that most champion hurdle winners gave raced at the festival before. It is because if you have a horse who's that talented 99% of the time he'll have gone to the festival rather than skipping it. So I'd say talent is the main factor here and talent is highly correlated to appearing at the cheltenham festival and running well. It's this reason why I am not worried by this stat in relation to hurricane fly. He was unfortunate not to make the previous two years, his not featuring there is not due to lack of talent. |
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excuse the predictive text mistakes below.
official = horse |
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yeh he may not off raced but would he even have won the races he was going for, bumper, supreme, if he had ran at chelt i think he would be a bigger price by not winning his races
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Interesting stuff, dwm. Good read.
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denman what are you talking about? Hurricane Fly? Bumper?
He's french so was racing on the flat before coming to mullins. He annihilated the supreme winner and last years champion hurdle fav go native twice in his novice season. So he would have likely won the supreme given his level of superiority over the actual winner. |
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here is your detailed arguement 'CLASS CLASS CLASS' that is why he may win,simple as,anyway unlike you dwn i just cant be bothered putting in the effort to write page after page of thoughts on here (have a life you see) i will just post my selections and let them do the talking as to how well i know this game,you are right in assuming that Zaidpour is my nap for cheltenham and i can 100% tell you that he will be running in the supreme in which he does not have one serious rival in the race and i am including cue card in that who will never in his life win a championship grade 1 race over hurdles at 2 miles,it is laughable to me that 90% of so called racing people can read a horse and one piece of form so wrong,he needs a trip and you will learn this come march,i have also backed hurricane like you say,but by no means think he is a certainty as i am terrified of binocular who i have also backed and again i can promise you that this is a 2 horse race between the 2 of the and the others have nothing like there ability,they will finish 1-2 in the champion hurdle 'FACT' and by the way ruby will be riding him along with zaidpour if he wants,he is the number one jockey for both mullins and nicholls yards and gets first choice of all there horses in every race,if both trainers have a strong fancy in the same race then ruby simply picks the horse he thinks the best chance of winning,he is not tied down to one stable rather than the other,it is 50/50 and both trainers accept that.
SUPREME NOVICE HURDLE-ZAIDPOUR ARKLE CHASE-GHIZAO CHAMPION HURDLE-HURRICANE FLY/BINOCULAR NEPTUNE HURDEL-MINELLA CLASS RSA-TIME FOR RUPERT/MIKAEL D'HAGUENET CHAMPION CHASE-BIG ZEB MARES HURDLE-QUEVEGA GOLD CUP-IMPERIAL COMMANDER write them down dwn,watch them win and then come back and show me some respect come march when its all over lastly i will finish with the sort of thing that i would expect you to post dwn767 'spoke to paul nicholls this week,told me that big bucks ate 3.6 grams of grass on wednesday,checked my record books and no horse who has ever eaten 3.6 grams of grass on the 26th of the month before the festival has ever won the world hurdle' lay lay lay ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
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A lot of sense there FormMan.
I agree about Ruby but my selections are: Supreme: Zaidpour Arkle : Mikael D'Hagenet (ground will be at its softest because they will ensure it isn't too dry on the first day) C Hurdle: Dunguib. Savers on HF and Binocular Neptune: Cue Card Ryanair : Somersby Ch Chase : Master Minded Mares : Quevega Gold Cup : Denman ( I think Sam Thomas will repeat his tactics when he won before and string them out like washing with over a cicuit to go. IC, LR and KS won't stay and the others aren't good enough). |
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TheFormMan, would you care to tell me how you found Ghizao, Imperial Commander, Time For Rupert, Mikael D'Haguenet, Binocular, Big Zeb and Quevega? What form entitles them to win?
![]() Cheers. |
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It's an easy game formman, you seem to know a lot more than the rest of us, bookies included.
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Absolutely brilliant comment lolololol
dwn767 'spoke to paul nicholls this week,told me that big bucks ate 3.6 grams of grass on wednesday,checked my record books and no horse who has ever eaten 3.6 grams of grass on the 26th of the month before the festival has ever won the world hurdle' lay lay lay Moving on.... Unfortunately for dwn, i too am a massive hurricane fly fan. I think the form from last years CH is questionable? Also HF absolutely, beyond all doubt smashed Go Native TWICE as a novice. Go Native has also beaten Binocular twice, but people fail to mention this? This form, as well as beating the 6x G1 winning hurdler Solwhit is why i think he is the best horse in the race and i think he will win. I always take trainers/jockeys interviews with a pinch of salt anyway. Mainly because they are all different and some are very negative and some more positive. Imo, from the interviews i've watched over recent years, Mullins always comes across quite negative/respectful about his horses chances in big races. So maybe this is a reason for him questioning how HF will handle Cheltenham? 1. He's won 8/9 starts over hurdles in IRE - the only hurdles race he's lost was when he wasn't race fit and finished 3rd to Solwhit on his seasonal return - who he has subsequently put in his place. 2. He will clearly get up the Hill - Having won over 2m4f at Fairyhouse in Soft ground 3. He finds plenty off the bridle having been pushed out in nearly all of his races and clearly he has then accelerated away from rivals numerous times. 4. He will be even better on good ground!!! 5. Previous Cheltenham form - not worried because he clearly has the class to win at Cheltenham and most of this stat is about having the class/talent 6. ? No-one knows for sure, how he will handle the occasion. But he's never been a problem before, so how can i suddenly make this assumption? This myth is purely based on the fact he is a Montjeu and his trainers comments. Dwn - If you have a First Class Degree in Equine Science then i am sure you will agree that all horses are indeed individuals, much like humans? And that even though they will each undoubtedly inherit certain tendencies. Whilst most Montjeu's are very head strong - not all are and i have seen no evidence to think this of HF? Horses are in fact each individuals, are they not??? Just a though, i put it to you sir? P.S. All other runners beware - There's a Hurricane coming through!!! |
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dwm, I may have a differing opinion but please ignore pointless useless antagonistic posters like theforeman.
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Yeah we're definitely going off the topic here. The only thing I reckon HF will have going against him come Cheltenham is the fact that it looks one of the best renewals in quite some time. I still think he'll win though and given his form on the Flat, albeit mostly on soft ground, I actually think he'll be lengths better on good ground and his turn of foot will be seen to much better effect!
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I'd have a lot more question marks over any of his rivals than I would over Hurricane Fly,(Binocular included). Ruby aboard on the big day is a major plus
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The formman
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well wicketd,regarding your smart mouth comment,yes it does look that Ghizao,Imperial Commander, Time For Rupert, Mikael D'Haguenet, Binocular, Big Zeb and Quevega have now all got very strong and obvious form claims,but the key word there was 'now' and whilst you were sitting around waiting for these horses to prove themselves and there prices to collapse i was already on,thats what classy antipost punters can do you see,i have serious bets on zaidpour at 22/1 for the supreme,backed him again at 16's 14's and 10's and i have even put further bets on at the current price of 8's which is still huge!!! i am on Minella class at 26/1 for the neptune and again have continued to back at the current 12's,i am on Ghizao at 33/1 for the arkle,Time for rupert at 14/1 for the RSA and Mikael D'Haguenet at 28/1 also for the RSA,i'm on Hurricane at 12/1 many times over and Binocular at 9/1 so taking into account the prices that i'm on at and looking at the current prices 'inchcailoch' it would seem that i do as you say 'know more than the bookies' add to that i'm in my 20's set up for life (all due to sports betting) then i would say-yes it is an easy game for anybody who does not have a problem/addiction with gambiling.today was a perfect example of just how easy it is 1;45 at GP MOURAD was an unbelievealbe price 10/11 this morning and there was no way in the world that he could ever be beaten barring a fall,even idiots could have read that form,anybody could have put whatever money they wanted on him and almost doubled there money just like that.
as for you dwn,you asked me to come back with a detailed argument for Hurricane,well i dont have to now as wanna-be-pro has just done it for you,word perfect and 100% on the money,i agree with every word |
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lololololol.
Mourad wasn't available anywhere at 10/11 genius. 8/11 was the best price which I took a chunk of last night with PP. you even say he was 10/11 this morning! drift did he? ![]() All you've done is listed a lot of obvious favourites and told us you're on at smart prices. You're an utter genius. You got Binocular at 9/1 for this year's CH did you? ![]() In your 20's, set up through sports betting yet you only joined betfair in December. ![]() You've gotta laugh. ![]() |
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This clown is 2nd only to Mayweather.
I have Binocular backed heavily at 9/1 for the Champion Hurdle too, problem is that was in a dream ![]() When telling lies try make them believable. ![]() |
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I have been backing Bino (and following his price) since he won last years race. He has been 3's since march, drifted to 5's after the fighting fifth, contracted to current price after the delayed xmas hurdle.
Was NEVER 9's for this years race ever! |
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I too think that Hurricane and Binocular are the two to beat and will most likely dutch them backing Hurricane on the day and Binocular as soon as there is NRNB as he'll surely shorten,though I did think there was great mileage in the 4 places stan james were offering, not sure if they still are, at around 3's Bino looks a cracking each way bet to me. Slight worry about HF is that he jumps slightly to his right which could cause a few problems in a big field
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neill he only jumps to his right when he's on his own, he's straight and slick when there is a horse beside him so it will not be a problem in the champion hurdle.
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good to know I'd only really noticed it the last day tbh, he should handle the track well as he's a real handy type but all quality as Ted Walsh said, I wonder at all do they regret gelding him as he ran a few times over hurdles before he got cut, though he was hard to settle. Might have been a fine sire of hurdlers
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Theformman
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Yep he was gelded the summer after his novice hurdle season. He lost his only race after that. But then settled realt well in his last four runs. He's very professional now
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Think we are going to see a lot of Montjeu stock going hurdling in the next few seasons
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actually genius i think you will find that as you say only pp and B 365 were giving prices last night,both opened up 8/11 but w illiam h ills opened him up at 10/11 this morning,held for about 30 minutes,do your homework kid and as for binocular genius,i got that 9/1 last year straight after he was declared a non runner for last years race,was willing to write off that season and start a freah with him the following year,its called anti post boys,you should start planning ahead,might even win something for a change,the bet is worthless anyway as Hurricane is going to bolt up!as for 'only joined betfair in December' what difference does that make? there were such a thing as bookies before betfair you know,still are believe it or not
i can tell you to this day i have still never placed a bet on betfair,only joined up as most firms wont let me get much on anymore and limit me to low stakes. |
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![]() I'm sure after to comprehensive defeats and an average win against dee ee williams you thought **** it, he'll come good again next year and went in big. ![]() William Hills opened at 4/7 with Mourad. ![]() Stop it you utter laughing stock. ![]() |
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two*
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has a life but is on bf forum on a friday night although in his 20's and extremely well off spouting a fantasy book that puts j.r.tolken's efforts to shame lmfbo
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Form man you should go and have a word with yourself.
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'2 comprehensive defeats and an average win against dee ee williams' you see this is where we are going to disagree again,i suppose like most people you think that binocular for 3 runs last season had lost himself along the way somewhere and he was not the horse of old or indeed present? when in fact there was nothing at all wrong with those 3 runs,i would advise you to go back and watch those replays again,just like i did a few weeks ago before i napped him all over this forum at 11/4 for the christmas hurdle using words like certainty and unbeatable,everybody knows that he needs alot of work to get fit and right and that was the case in last years fighting fifth,he was way undercooked and massively needed the run that day and that was the reason for such a poor showing,as for his next race,that was a great run in last years christmas hurdle,may only have been 90% but was tanking round and jumping brilliantly until hitting the ground very hard at the 3rd last,a mistake that completley knocked the stuffing out of him and cost him any chance of winning,yet still stayed on to finish a length 3rd to go native with AP taking it easy on him once the race was lost and as for the sandown race,well we must have been watching different races because that was anything but an average run,it was soft ground and he went round easy as he liked never coming out of first gear and never off the bridle to win with any amount in hand,yes the form book says he beat dee ee williams by 1 length but it would have been 40 if he had wanted,i promise you if you go back and watch those replays you will see it exactly as i have described and i never said 'i went in big as you state,i simply said that i backed him
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