Cheltenham Festival
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Reading between the lines of what Wille Mullins has said, I think it's safe to assume that Hurricane Fly will be a complete wreck come the start of the Champion Hurlde; with that in mind will Mullins want Ruby on board given his knack of settling horses into a race?
Also, be interested in your predictions for other jockey bookings!? Gold Cup im sure it'll be Ruby on Kauto, Sam Thomas on Denman, McCoy on Pride of Dulcote. Thoughts?
Also, be interested in your predictions for other jockey bookings!? Gold Cup im sure it'll be Ruby on Kauto, Sam Thomas on Denman, McCoy on Pride of Dulcote. Thoughts?
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Ruby will ride Hurricane Fly, Paul had to give up the ride to Ruby in the horses novice season at the Punchestown festival and im sure it will be no different here as Ruby gets 1st choice bar Golden Silver (as far as im aware)
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What a very stupid comment from you dwm, how on earth do you think hurricane fly will be a wreck by cheltenham. Nonsense comment, he has plenty of time to be given a rest and then tuned for cheltenham.
The horse has run three times in six weeks, he will have longer than six weeks to cheltenham. He will be spot on chime the day. I also believe townend will keep the ride. |
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IF what a friend runs, i would have sam thomas on him. then ruby i guess would want to stay on kauto with AP on denman, and maybe nick schofield on pride of dulcote (think he rode him at newbury from memory?) if not then probably the3 u sed DWM, unless ruby decides pride of dulcote has the biggest chance and might go with him
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scholfield on pod imo. if waf runs then ap might ride denman but if he doesnt then i dont think he will ride anythin with any chance in the gc
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While Townend has ridden HF in five of his six G1 wins, Ruby will ride at Cheltenham. I'd prefer to have Ruby on board anyway as he's second to none when it comes to the big race days and Townend still to ride a winner at the festival.
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Townend seems to think he is keeping the ride, he was talking about cheltenham in his interview with rte after his win on sunday.
Can I ask if any of you saw the interview or are you all from England? It was very informative about who will ride. It left me in little doubt. |
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CVByrne - When I say a wreck, I wasn't talking about the physical condition of the horse; im sure he'll turn up 100% fit and give a good account of himself, I meant wreck as in his mental state, given Mullins has said he's concerned the occasion might upset the horse and wind him up!
Oh, and stop critising people for negative comments against horses you fancy...I seem to remember you getting all worked up last year because people were voicing their opinion that Denman stood a better chance in the Gold Cup than Kauto Star...and look what happened there!! Paul4 I think I read somewhere Nicholls will keep What A Friend fresh for Aintree! Can't imagine with the recent positive comments surround Kauto that Ruby will abondon him! |
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fair enough DWM, just thought running in the AON would prep him nicely for gold cup. guess could just do job for aintree instead
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I've certainly not read anything confirming either way; I just remember seeing Aintree was the preference! I mean I spose he might run in the Gold Cup and if he doesn't get into the race then not be given too hard a time and still remain relatively fresh? Not sure.
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I saw the interview and i can't recall him saying he had the ride for Cheltenham. Ruby will surely have the option to ride but i would like to see Paul keep it, don't think he will though
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he certainly said in stable tour that would be going gold cup route dwm. also read somewhere that michel le bon would "be taking the same route as what a friend last season in going for totesport bowl at aintree with a view to go for the gold cup the year after", so assumed that meant what a friend would be this year. saying that he ran well at aintree and they do have a fair few gold cup candidates so could just go to aintree with him
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Yeah that's what I mean, if he's got three serious chances in the Gold Cup then why add a fourth when he can scoop another Grade 1 come April with a fresh horse! Racing is business after all and if he's going three handed into the Gold Cup id of thought he'd what to go double handed to the Bowl? Not sure, a lot depends on his AON run I guess; let's not forget the horse has it to prove in that race having been so dissapointing in the Betfair Chase at Haydock!
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yeh, again from my biased outlook :) but nicholls said at start of season that what a friend wasnt as far forward as the rest due to the wind op, and they didnt have a set target early on and decided to run in betfair as already had 3/4 in hennessy. i think (and hope) it should come on plenty for that run and if the op has worked (ruby said couldnt breathe after a race last year) then could be a different horse. i have said before i dont back anything short on here, only use it to get big prices for horses i think have a reason for which they may come in alot, so obviously when bet them they will have flaws etc otherwise would be shorter. im hoping he goes gold cup, but have pride of dulcote at a big price aswel so should get at least 1 run for my money
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dwm I was fair to criticise your comments "i think it's safe to say hurricane fly will be a complete wreck come the start of the champion hurdle" because they are stupid, they aren't pertaining to be opinion, you infer this as common well held knowledge when it is as far from it as could be possible.
I respect others opinions but I'll deride nonsense comments. |
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Fair point, but I know you think the horse will win the race (read in another topic), and so you're thinking it's safe to say he'll be ok come the day...you think he will, I think he won't! There's no difference in assuming a positive and assuming a negative; you just won't accept anyone's right to assume a negative about a horse you think will win!
What you still doing here anyway? I thought "all the best people had gone to ****!" |
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****!
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Why won't Betfair let me post the name of their rivals!? Pathetic lads, come on!!
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Why do you think he will be a wreck at the start? Is this just down to him being a Montjeu?
Has he ever shown a tendancy to get upset pre race or at the start before? I know Cheltenham is a different proposition to everywhere else and he will have not encountered crowds and noise like this before but im curious why you feel he won't handle this, as he has handled everything asked of him to date. |
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As I've state elsewhere I think binocular will win the race actually, but I think hurricane fly has a great chance too. I dont mind others having a different opinion, especially if they back their opinion up with a good reason and some evidence.
I don't tolerate nonsense statements, like the one below. Had you said you think ruby will ride because the horse might be wound up by the cheltenham atmosphere and a mental wreck, and ruby would get him to settle better I'd have no qualms with that opinion. |
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Well I think the fact he's by Montjeu doesn't help; Hurricane Run, Authorized, Papal Bull and Fame & Glory have all been known to get up on their toes when it comes to a big occasion!
I think another big factor is the age of the horse. At 4 or 5 horses are still young enough to be adaptable to change; a lot of things are new to them, some they take in their stride, others upset them. Now at 6 or 7 a horse begins to develop an understanding of it's environment and as such to move him from his comfort zone if you like, into a completly new atmosphere is asking a lot if he's to accept it straight away. My girlfiend through her education (a degree in equine science), and her current job works closely with horses day in day out, and she explained this theory to me, and ive seen it with my own eyes, it's remarkable! While the younger horses are curious enough to embrace change, the more mature horses get upset and have the confidence if you like to challenge it! What also makes me think this, is that Willie Mullins expressed a concern that the horse might not like the atmosphere of the festival, and for a trainer to admit this says to me that the concern is genuine! I might be wrong, but im convinced in my mind this will be the case, that he'll be unsettled, throw a strop, and not be the same horse we see cantering around familiar surroundings. In Ireland, as a 5-year-old, he ran at Fairyhouse, Leopardstown and Punchestown; since then, he's run at Fairyhouse, Leopardstown and Punchestown! In my opinion, Willie Mullins should of brought him over to England, if not to run at Cheltenham, then at least to get the horse experience of long travel and different surroundings, now he's matured! He hasn't done so, and I can only assume again that's because he's concerned the horse won't like it, and any Champion Hurdle bid would be questioned! He's really gambling on this one, and in a race so hot as this years Champion Hurdle, he'll need to be spot on come the day, and any sign of him getting worked up will be a massive blow to his chances! |
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interesting post dwm, obviously considered the "never been to cheltenham" and effects of travelling etc, but never considered the difference between young horses being open to the changes and more mature ones set in the way
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hahaha dwn you really are a first class muppet,i have never read so much crap in all my life
 the only thing i have ever read from you that makes any sense is in the above post where you say and i quote 'I MIGHT BE WRONG' Hurricane is going to make you look such a fool come march,please please please be my bookmaker |
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somebody change his nappy ffs
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^
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Townend.
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I think Townend should ride the horse, given the events of the season to date. I have seen the Fly in the flesh twice, the day he accelerated away from Go Native after the last at Leop shocked me it was so impressive, and also last season the day he beat Solwhit in a photo at Punchestown (Rabobank Champ Hdle, again very impressive.
He is obviously a very smart hurdler, but I would tend to agree with DWM that the cauldron of Prestbury Park will be a completely different day, against some very decent hurdlers. Everything will need to go right tactically on the day to win, and it is a hugh ask, but perhaps he is up to it. I have had no bet on the race, and would prefer at this stage to enjoy what promises to be the best Champ Hdle for many years. Ground will play a factor, but just hope the main protagonists stay sound so we can see who is the true champion at this stage. |
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would hope townend keeps the ride as imo is far better to have the man onboard who knows the horse inside out than the one who knows the course inside out,sure ruby will if not taking the ride give paul as much advice about the unique course as possible to aid him on his first festival ride....just hope if the fly doesnt win people dont crab him as he is still a young jock and one who i think could go right to the top over the next few years...real baptism of fire though and i dont envy him carrying the hopes of ireland on the biggest stage in nh racing on his first visit.
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[:D]
It's true gents, HF is a wreck |
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By the way, with regard to HF having never travelled abroad - He won in France after winning at Punchestown three years ago with Ruby up. And I think people are just looking for reasons to put down the horse by saying he'll ruin his chances on the way down and at the start come Cheltenham. He's never had any problems like that before so why should he now? Won In The dark didn't have any issues before he finished third in the Triumph three years ago. And he also won in front of a packed crowd at Punchestown last April too if anybody has any worries about factor
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I agree ^
There is nothing I am aware of in the horses past to suggest the occasion will get to him. Mullins brings loads of horses to the festival each year and his strike rate is second to none; the horses seem to compete at their best almost always (in stark contrast to certain other Irish trainers!) I dont think HF will win the Champion hurdle but it wont be the occasion that beats him imo. |
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TheFormMan - I would LOVE to be your bookmaker, because you see, unlike your name suggests, you pay no attention to form, and you pay no attention to race conditions, or anything really...you're clearly a toothless simpleton!
From what I can work out (from your previous posts) your two main fancies for the festival are Zaidpour (in a race he won't run in!!!!!) and Hurricane Fly...anyone else see the trend here!? Both are trained by Willie Mullins, and both are Irish horses!! What ammuses me is you have no arguement what so ever to back up what you say...you just say it! Agree or not, I have given you a detailed arguement as to why I don't think Hurricane Fly will run his race before the start at the festival; now what id like you to do is give me as detailed an arguement as to why he will please? Z |
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DWM, your reasons behind HF not winning the Champion Hurdle are definately unfounded. Four seven-year-olds have won the race in the past 11 runnings and just because he's by Montjeu doesn't mean that he'll boil over before the race. Never has this happened with him before so if you're going to put a case forward, you need the ammo to back it up!
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I'm a hurricane fly backer and neither the occasion nor the breeding are even slight worries for me.
Firstly the horse this season has become very professional and seems to relax and settle very well. Also Mullins uses ear plugs on many of his horses from a young age to great effect, they are used to them having worn them all the time. This helps remove one element from the equation. Secondly breeding,, only half the genes of the sire are in the horse. The record of montjue's is poor because all the horses who turned up were poor, they had trouble winning at most tracks. My worries are not about hurricane fly, I've no serious doubts about anything relating to the horse. My worries are the opposition, that they might be better horses. |
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ChildOfMine2 - Read what ive written before you comment son; im not saying 7 year olds can't win the race, im saying at 7 years old horses are less likely to embrace change than a 4 or 5 year old horse!!
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...and you haven't got the ammo to back up what you say, because the horse has never raced outside of Ireland before!!
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He has raced outside ireland before. Get your facts straight.
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Yes he raced in France as a 4-year-old, but if you read(if you CAN read) what I posted,im talking about the horse as a 6 or 7-year-old, when horses begin to mature!
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CV...even Hurricane Fly's own trainer has expressed worries about the horse's potential temparement at Cheltenham so give dwm a little credit here. He's by Montjeu also whose record at Cheltenham is 0 winners from 31 thus far...and they are well known to be quirky.
He'll have to be good to beat Binocular and Peddlers Cross. |
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You didn't say that in your below post, I was just correcting you on that.
Also it's rather encouraging that these are the best augments you can come up with against the horse. Very flimsy and points that don't worry me in the slightest. You need discussion to highlight potential things you miss and nothing as yet has come up that worries me much at all. I still only worry about the talent of the opposition. I'm confident Hurricane Fly will run up to his best on the day, if that's not good enough so very it. |