steamship: 'He only picks in the hardest races'

That very much depends on your point of view! For me, Championship races are the hardest to judge because you're dealing usually with very limited form, as the leading contenders often have only a handful of runs a season between them, every horse has been tuned to the second, and usually on their day they're all capable of beating each other! Tom Segal is very good in handicap races, where if anyone takes the time to go through the form with a fine tooth comb, a winner is often not that hard to find!

frankie57 - Fair enough he did put those two horses up at prices, but if you read his column from this Saturday his comment on Long Run was, and I quote, "capable of giving the great one a race"...now that's not a tip, he's covered his angles! He's not saying..."look Long Run is the one to be on here, that's my selection in this race, that's where my money's going"...I think everyone knew Long Run was capable of sticking in a performance on Saturday, the question was would it be good enough to beat Kauto Star...Tom Segal did not answer that question, yet on Sunday morning on the front page of the RP, Pricewise Does It Again! Does what? Gives a chance to the second favourite in the race? Big deal, so did I!

I suppose my gripe is for the admiration he recieves I want selections of strong conviction, because at the end of the day we can all give a horse a chance in a race, and on it's day it'll win, so how does that make him any different to you, me, or anyone else on here! Again, with Captain Cee Bee and Pride Of Dulcote, he's not saying 'I strongly fancy them to win the race!', he's saying at the prices they're worth an investment because they've got a chance! Every horse that lines up at the start of any race has some sort of chance, he's telling us nothing!

The problem is as his reputation's grown he's become keener to protect it, and so his tips are now more focused around getting value in a race than winners; if you were to back Captain Cee Bee to win the Champion Chase and he finished 4th, and I was to back Master Minded and he finished 5th, you've done no better than I have, we've both collect Sweet FA!

frankie 57 ,if you are winning money like that then stick with it if you say you would never have backed those 2 winners   otherwise then he has done you a massive favour, if he picked a winner once every pancake day then i would say o.k it must be all down to luck but he picks a lot  of big priced winners so he must be doing something right , must say i dont follow him blind i havent backed pride of dulcot as i fancy diamond harry more and have had a decent amount ( for me any way )on him ,but i have backed some fantastic priced winners  of tom seagles when i havent had time to make an assesment myself. evens and odds at 33s in a big sprint comes to mind  i would never have backed this it was only down to reading his column and thinking hes right this has got a decent chance at the price  we need all the help we can get this game is hard enough as it is well done with your bets and good luck

You don't have to answer that Slabster, if you don't want to.
I've just noticed that you said your QMCC selection is Big Zeb, same as me.
With a rating of 155, CCB would have come 6th in last years QMCC.

great thread

Fascinating thread as it develops.

Wayward Lad - I agree completely with Slabster regarding last year's fall behind Sizing Europe. However you interpret that race, to my eye Captain Cee Bee was cantering all over Sizing Europe and that is what I base my speculative punt on him in the QM around. That suggested to me he has the ability to progress way past his current rating, and although 10-year-old's don't win many Queen Mother's, he is very lightly raced. Granted, he obviously comes with a bit of a health warning as he's not the easiest to train but we are talking about a horse that was 16-1 when first making these points.

As for the Binocular point - I am not saying hurdles form translates directly to chase form. But Festival form translates fantastically well - nobody can deny that you have to possess a stack of class to win any championship race at Cheltenham.

As for the Big Zeb fans, nobody could argue with you regarding the way he won last year and he has been doing everything right recently. I still find it hard to shake the memories of his poor jumping and disappointments in big races away from Ireland. He has, in my opinion of course, only won that one top-notch race, which just might not be that great anyway (Forpadydeplasterer has not done much for the form since and Master Minded was clearly way below his best). I like the horse a lot, but he is 4-1 and shorter and not a 16-1 or 20-1 (Tataniano) shot with scope to improve.

With regards to the Big Zeb vs Master Minded debate, for this year's form, it is very difficult to seperate them.

Big Zeb continues to beat the same horses in Ireland over the past 18 months (Golden Silver, Mansony, Watson Lake, Made in Taipan etc), and Master Minded has, on the whole, continued to beat the same horses in England (Mahogany Blaze, Petit Robin etc).

This is the first year that in my opinion both are at the top of their game (apart from MM's first QM win).  Big Zeb has cut out his jumping flaws and Master Minded  has had an injury free season.  Therefore, I beleive it's hard to choose between them as they haven't been sufficiently tested so far, and probably won't be until March.  It's a shame they won't run against each before the festival.

I think they should be closer together in the market than they are.  I don't see why Big Zeb would be 7/2 and Master Minded 6/4 and 7/4.  I'd have Master Minded shorter than Big Zeb, but only just.  As I've said previously in this thread, I think 8/11 coupled vs the field is outstanding value.

In terms of the opposition, I can't see too much to worry the big two.

Woolcombe Folly - beat a 135 chaser by 6 lengths off 154 in his last race.  Surely Master Minded or Big Zeb could have easily have done that as they are both rated in the 170's, plus his flop in the Arkle last year for me is a worry

Sizing Europe - still nobody knows what his best trip is and this must be a concern.  Henry de Bromhead must believe that he hasn't got the speed for the QM otherwise he would be geared towards this all season, so that must be a worry

Captain Cee Bee - I think everyone can agree that barring his fall he would have easily beaten SE last year.  But the point is he didn't.  He then burst a blood vessel again.  He obviously has class as he had Binocular, Khyber Kim, Kalahari King, Tranquil Sea and Muirhead behind him in his Supreme Novices win.  However, I don't think he's shown that level of form over fences; I'm not sure how much improvement is in him at 10.

Tataniano - for me is too ground dependent.  Also, last year Nicholls didn't put him in the Arkle and put him in the Grand Annual instead (only to be withdrawn because of the ground).  For me, if he was that good he would have ran him in the Arkle, especially as the first few days of last years festival was on good ground.

The rest I think are much of a muchness, and can't see any of them posing a threat to the big two.  I know it's not very original (and I like backing a long shot), but the front two are miles ahead imo.

He did ok on his last trip to England.