Cheltenham Festival
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Due to all the Postponed meeting over winter. Any one else think this year so hard to pick horses for Cheltenham due to lack of runs. 
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agree liam just posted a veiw on the champion hurdle thread and that race is a nightmare any one of ten could win it ,i have only just started to look at the other championship races and they are not a lot easier am going to take on all the favs and ill be betting in the world hurdle market without big bucks good luck
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Im on Hurricane Fly but like you said Foyleswar any one can win. Other races are so tough some horse are in there first season. Before you being able to recognise all the horses. Like Kauto, Denman and others.
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its always tough at cheltenham but i believe you have more chance of a big win at the festival than any meeting jumps or flat, start with the championship races i.e gold cup, arkle , champion chase ,champion hurdle ,,the reason being that in the championship races you have months to study form, the races are priced up months before so if you have the time to study the form rerun tapes of trials ect you can form an opinion also you can get big prices early doors on the less exposed horses, and at the festival you know that every horse is trained to the minuet and there are no horses having an easy time everything is trying so its a leval playing field ,read these threads there are a lot of shrewd posters who know what they are talking about.
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I will do mate. Least i have me account now so will be able to learn more for next year. I usually have most of the Summer of apart from one or 2 meetings i go to . Start saving up for Cheltenham every year around August time. Im only 23 so least i can learn alot for next year aswell and years ahead. Thanks for the help.
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The Champion Hurdle is the easiest race to work out.
Only Binocular, Peddlers Cross and Hurricane Fly can win that. Backed them at 5s,14s and 5s accordingly The rest is very hard - Mourad without Big Bucks at 6s is the other stand out ew. Zaynar's a dog, Karabak doesn't win often enough and Grand Crus is a handicapper. Jy'Vole in Ryanair is interesting at 12s also |
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Hey good luck Liam. I too have followed horses all of my life and now that I'm in my fifties I'm lucky inasmuch that I don't have to save up for the Festival anymore!
For what it's worth I've backed Time For Rupert in the RSA, with a saver NRNB in the Gold Cup. If he does go for the RSA I think that he's a good thing, he's got proven form around Cheltenham. My bet on him in the Gold Cup is an insurance. Remember though that these horses can - and do - make fools of all of us! |
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Remember too you don't have to have a bet in every race, or an ante-post bet in a race just because there's a market open on it.
Personally, I prefer the handicaps at Cheltenham, because everything is trying, certain trends work out really well and you can get some great prices (especially on the Tote) about some real livewires. Save your money until you get one you REALLY fancy as opposed to having a punt to nothing 'because it's the Champion Hurdle'. It's not a crime to just watch a race. |
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Ballydoyle,thats awful advice re the CH.
Liam wants sound comments not your opinion on a race that has 5 or 6 horses,possibly more with a chance of winning. Liam,i would ignore that if i were you mate. |
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The trick is to back Zaidpour, Realt Dubh, Hurricane Fly and Quevega in a nice little yankee to get the ball rolling on the Tuesday! [:D]
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When you look at the festival, love the price, not the Horse. Steeple went through some figures last year for me and proved that horses under 11-4 return less at the festival than they would at normal Cheltenham meetings, same for Royal Ascot.
Everyone wants to say they backed the winner of a big race, horses are overbet there, more so than at day to day meetings |
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with you there zilzal quickest way to poorhouse backing short priced favs at the festival ,my son works for billys and he said last year they were offering a special bet ,big bicks ,dunguib ,kauto,master minded ,15/2 all to win my son said there were loads of takers getting on; unbelivable; ,still at least they new thier fate early with dunguib
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zilzal that's the soundest piece of advice ever committed to pixel in this forum!!
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Same EVERY year. Well fancied bankers get mullered. Bit concerned cause I quite fancy a few of them this year though
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Just remember Dunguib
This time last year it was that punting Holy Grail of the 'banker bet' of the meeting....was going to get the Irish off to a flyer....a machine...can't be beaten.....any number of people willing to run naked up Cleeve Hill if it got beat etc. 3.00 pm on Festival Tuesday and it was all recriminations about why he was beaten.... the jockey's numpty....the ground wasn't right....his star sign was misaligned.....he was running across a ley line etc, which was all very interesting and of fk all help to anyone holding a betting slip with his name on. |
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I think far from being one of the hardest, this is the most straight forward festival in years! At the end of the day as punters we can only go on what we've seen, and from what ive seen there are several straight forward selections on every day! Whether they win or not is a different matter, but you can forgive yourself a freak result! Too many people im sure will not accept what they've seen and try to over complicate everything, but keep it simple and I think there's a big profit to be made!
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And always do a multiple if you strongly fancy a few, the reasoning being that horses priced at long odds are Good horses not unreliable horses with various ailments. is not as if you wont waste a score or fifty quid at sometime in your life
I was going to at RA in june 97 and didnt bother 2YO Shadeed filly(Won the queen mary) at 14/1 Rebecca Sharp at 25-1 Red Robbo at 33-1 All won, did i do multiple  |
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...if only for a cheeky fiver trixie eh!? Jesus!
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agree roger the but , a lot of hype encouraged by the media bookmakers ect,to overhype certain horses , my bottom line is at the festival never back a short priced fav as you say , flying machine ,cert ,only got to turn up, bull****t bookmakers love this and are happy to lay an underpriced hype horse anything can happen in a horserace that is why i will always look to take on a hot favourite especially at the festival
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Yeah but we as punters are just as guilty when it comes to hype.
Look at the number of posts there's been (and will continue to come) by us, supposedly clued up punters along the above lines. We'll invest not only our money but, seemingly our hearts, cojones and virginity of our first born in certain animals, wanting desperatley to not only be right in terms of our bank balance but also in terms of bragging rights in here and doubtless countless pubs and clubs in Cheltenham come festval week. Great when it comes off but you never hear about the countless times it doesn't, not unless you're a bookie talking about mugs who bet with their c0cks. Raeding Dave Nevison's biographies and one phrase he uses time and again that really struck home with me: when he's asked about races, he's generally asked what he thinks will win (to which he always answers 'the favourite') rather than discussing odds / chances / 'at that price' etc. |
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Yep, spot on Roger
If you watched the Breeders Cup coverage you would notice the difference in the US pundits, they will say that they dont like something and will use something as a banker in a exacta to get the fav out of the two, or in the pick sox they will "Go Deep" in one leg and hope for something silly Its makes more interesting viewing to me tbh |
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My rule at the festival is if you think something is going to win back it, favourite or not! Horse racing time and time again proves itself a very simple puzzle to solve, it's us punters who complicate it!
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Riger and Zilzal bang on the money here.
My first couple of festivals I bet like an addict you see in every High St bookies - every race without question. Unsurprisingly it wasnt that successful. The last few years i've been very selective to the point where I only had one bet last gold cup day! |
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One sentence made so much sense to me, cant remember where i even read it.
When looking at a card,instead of thinking what will win this or that, think "How can i make a profit from this card" |
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not according to some all 4 (major races) are going to win again and the mugs have taken 130-1 on it happening again.
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The problem I seem to have is that there's horses you like and have followed all season in almost every race, and inevitably end up backing them as much to have an interest as anything else! [smiley:crazy]
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We are all guilty of that slabster
im always inclined to take on short priced ones there, not laying, but getting them out of the f/c places if i think there are only a couple or three dangers via a rfc or comb, i managed to hit two f/cs last year opposing Dunguib and Kauto, but was 0-4 in 2009 |
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zilzal1 - Both Dunguib and Kauto Star had every right to go off favourite in their races last year, so on what basis were you trying to take them on, simply because of the price? I'm not having a pop im genuinely interested, im a pure student of form and so all these 'good things' catch me out!
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Cue Card this year for example; if anyone is thinking of taking him on, please explain to me why! Or is it just those that do will eliminate him from the race because of the price?
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good advice zizal regarding the multiples at the festival last year had a yankee+ £20 e/way acca on the tues sizing euro 13/2w
,weds,weapons amnesty 12s w,big zeb ,all running on to cooldine  won good money on the doubles trebles aso backed them singles ante post but the reality with multiples if you get one up i.e 4 winners at big prices you must make it pay bas it wont happen again very often good luck on your bets |
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DWM, price has something to do with it for certain, and i'll get more wrong
I opposed Dunguib because of his Hurdling and the pilot on the big stage, i thought that Menorah was rock solid and did rfc's with Get me out of here and General Miller as i thought that those were the second wave A losing bet was a Forpaddy/Kalahari King rfc, i was put off by Big Zebs previous visit to the UK, Master Minded imo will always be taken on if there is good ground, I thought the two i backed would be around the same horse on the Arkle runs Another Losing bet was Tidal Bay/Time for rupert rfc based on the Cleeve hurdle run, basically taking a shot on Big Bucks having a off day I took on Kauto because i thoguht he was oh so short because of the KG 09 Race and didnt (and still dont buy into the 193 rating) Took a IMP/Cooldine /Denman com Will post up this years on the days Another losing bet wa |
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Both Dunguib and Kauto Star had every right to go off favourite in their races last year, so on what basis were you trying to take them on, simply because of the price? I'm not having a pop im genuinely interested, im a pure student of form and so all these 'good things' catch me out!
This is really interesting stuff from DWM I'm genuinely interested in knowing that if you genuinely believe a horse will win, would you back it at 1.01? Put another way, I don't know how anyone can assess a race WITHOUT considering price as well as all the form you can handle |
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the festival is always tough for punting as finally every horse is fit/ready and connections arent looking for another day to get the win..
for myself i do my ante-posts during the summer(the ones i like and think could go for race x,y or z)then a few more once the national hunt is underway...then a week beforehand i forget all about them and study form like my life depends upon it...yes i bet most every race as its nice to have a interest when on-course as gives you something to cheer home sometimes...and without blowing my own trumpet(cant quite reach :P) i normally finish the week off up but always with a sob story or 2...absolutely love the jumps but emotion and early thoughts should play no part whatsoever in your selections on the day...best of british and lets make it a profitable one this year  |
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Well for me I decide on what I believe is the most likely winner and bet on it accordingly! If it's a short price I look for something to double it up with; I definitly don't look elsewhere because the price is too short! I don't back each way because I don't bet on anything I don't think can win, so if my selection in a race happens to be a short price then so be it; it's obvious that im not alone in fancying it!
I only ask because I get confused sometimes how people say I think so and so will win but at the prices im backing somthing else! An even money winner is always better than a 16/1 loser in my book! Why complicate things!? |
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dwm67 each to his own every one has there own ways of doing things the way i look at a race is to look at the fav first and try and assess the reason for its price ie form ,maybee with a high profile stable, top jockey ect, and then try and find a horse with a similar chance at a bigger price than it should be, this horse may have had a poor run last time out, be with an unfashionable stable ,not been heavily tipped by the trade papers ect,if say for instance i think it should be a good 5.1 chance and it is available at 8.1 then i will back it at 8.1 and belive i am getting value i may even back another in the race with a decent chance,let me give you an example in the race in ireland a few weeks ago mikael de haguenet was a hot fav and the most likely winner but the highest rated /most likley horses does not always win , had good form ,looked good thing ,top trainer & jockey tipped heavily by the papers but was odds on 4/7 i wont win a lot backing at that price and i would have to put a lot on to win money ,too much to lose not enough to win ,so looking deeper into the race ,I RECcONED THAT REALT DUBH AT 10S HAD A BETTER CHANCE THAN HIS PRICE SUGGESTED so i backed it £20 win and also had a £20 bet on another horse at the same price, anyway the fav dissapointed and realt dubh won, £220 back £180 profit what i am saying is if i had backed the fav and it won at 4/7 £40 what would i have won" peanuts " i will obviosly back a lot of losers but a 10.1 or 16 .1 winner will cover a good few losers so to me the price is a very important factor but if your system of betting works for you then stick with it and good luck with your punting
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Take the Champion Hurdle, if they lined up tomorrow as they were imo there would be no angle for a f/c and a bet would be totally dependent on ground conditions.
I would like to take on Binocular because imo he ran on from what i consider a below average champion hurdle, Menorah, although consistent could have been a overreaction in beating Two Novices . Hurricane fly could be the joker in the pack, talented but fragile. who knows what he might bring to the table. On the premis that Overturn is better on faster ground and he ran close to Bino, i would take Peddlars to win the Champion Hurdle. although if the going was similar to last year i couldnt not back Clerks Choice at 50-1 ew given the faster pace |
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with that reasoning foyles have you considered reversing your way of working through the card as in you start at the bottom of the market and work your way up finding a horse that can win the race rather than start at the top as this works for me as i try to ignore the prices although this is harder come cheltenham as am checking most markets/news daily but its how i work day to day stuff out..
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If i think the market is right at the top i would not have a bet in the race
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zilzal with you on the champion hurdle binocular was impressive last year but imo he may have just outspeeded a bunch of staying types ,zaynar,khyber kim ,celestial halo ,solwhit ect,i may be wrong he may be a world beater but at 5/2 id want to look for better value the 2 that are interesting me at the moment are dunguib at 16s ,and peddelers cross 6s unbeaten and proven at chelt, also a.kings salden lihgt he goes for the tote gold trophy and if he wins that off a big weight he could be in the mix as he was usefull on the flat and seems to be improving fast may have a few quid on b4 t.trophy at a big price, good luck
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gutfeeling, will certainly try your method , i t ry to only bet at the higher grade meetings , mainly at weekends or if there is a midweek high profile meeetings i think i have more chance of success in the better grade races ,good luck
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