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Steeplechasing
17 Jan 11 19:13
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Date Joined: 18 Jul 03
| Topic/replies: 220 | Blogger: Steeplechasing's blog
TFR goes for the Argento Chase on Jan 29th at Cheltenham, regularly a decent Gold Cup trial.  If he wins, connections will be sorely tempted to have a tilt at the Gold Cup.  16/1 is available NRNB and it strikes me as value simply because he will shorten should he win the Argento and miss the GC if he doesn't win.
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Report magic carpet January 17, 2011 7:18 PM GMT
I can see the angle your coming from. Eric Morris will probably go into a meltdown if he does go for the gold cup and will probably accuse you of having an agenda for even raising the topic steeple
Report Paul4 January 17, 2011 7:22 PM GMT
i think this means there is value inthe RSA market as anything u back now will shorten by a hell of a lot if he runs well/wins the argento and looks like a gold cup contender and if he doesnt go gold cup then u still have a nice price on a horse/horses in the RSA
Report abbott January 17, 2011 7:23 PM GMT
Steeple what else do you think will head for that trial?

Poss The Midnightclub, Pride Of Dulcote, Caruthers?

By the way I have found the perfect venue for the Preview Night will email you this week regarding it.
Report tweedledumbtweedletwat January 17, 2011 7:23 PM GMT
is the 16s with laddies?sensible bet coz if he doesnt win or go close in the argento then he,l revert to rsa.
Report Paul4 January 17, 2011 7:27 PM GMT
pride of dulcote is heading for irish hennessy weekend after
Report Steeplechasing January 17, 2011 7:29 PM GMT
Yes, 16 with laddies.  abbott - that's good news mate.  Don't know what else will go for Argento but according to TFR trainer, he goes there unless it's abandoned.  Things might get a bit scary for him if Bobby D decides to send IC there.  I'd expect Pride of Dulcote to run but we will see.
Report abbott January 17, 2011 7:31 PM GMT
My only worry with your bet would be if a below par field turn up. He beats them and is still available at a bigger price.
From memory weve not had a top class winner for a number of years, maybe exotic dancer?
Report ftm January 17, 2011 7:37 PM GMT
didnt joe lively win it?
Report Steeplechasing January 17, 2011 7:40 PM GMT
Quality of last three winners might be questionable but overall, pretty sound trial:

1997    One Man    9    Richard Dunwoody    Gordon W. Richards
1998    See More Business    8    Timmy Murphy    Paul Nicholls
1999    Cyfor Malta    6    Tony McCoy    Martin Pipe
2000    Looks Like Trouble    8    Norman Williamson    Noel Chance
2001    See More Business    11    Mick Fitzgerald    Paul Nicholls
2002    Rince Ri    9    Ruby Walsh    Ted Walsh
2003    Behrajan    8    Richard Johnson    Henry Daly
2004    Jair du Cochet    7    Jacques Ricou    Guillaume Macaire
2005    Grey Abbey    11    Graham Lee    Howard Johnson
2006    See You Sometime [1]    11    Andrew Thornton    Seamus Mullins
2007    Exotic Dancer    7    Tony McCoy    Jonjo O'Neill
2008    Knowhere    10    Paddy Brennan    Nigel Twiston-Davies
2009    Joe Lively    10    Joe Tizzard    Colin Tizzard
2010    Taranis
Report abbott January 17, 2011 7:41 PM GMT
Thats kind of what I mean ftm. He was a cracking horse but never a gold cup candidate.
Report Far From Trouble January 17, 2011 7:41 PM GMT
No doubting the quality of Taranis on his day imv
Report ftm January 17, 2011 7:44 PM GMT
he would have beaten nortons coin....but i agree .perhaps its too close to gc.only gives them 4weeks with no room for error,injury etc.id be shocked if ic didnt go straight for gold cup now
Report dwm767 January 17, 2011 7:46 PM GMT
If I wasn't convinced he will win the RSA Chase by multiple lengths I would agree; connections would be foolish to miss out on a wedge of prize money when they could just run him in the Gold Cup next year, which will be minus Denman; a horse im sure novice chasers should avoid!
Report abbott January 17, 2011 7:56 PM GMT
Steeple just emailed you.
Report buddeliea January 17, 2011 8:11 PM GMT
what price TFR for GC if he wins a weak Pillar??
not convinced it will be that much difference to what it is now,or would be on the day.
Fair way behind the big boys,and winning a weak Pillar chase would not get me rushing to back him to beat the likes of IC and Denman.
Report Far From Trouble January 17, 2011 8:14 PM GMT
Are they seriously considering this? RSA looks rotten and he's a stand out performer
Report stormey1 January 17, 2011 8:15 PM GMT
Only defo runner i can think of is Tidal Bay
IC defo goes straight to Gold Cup
Report Howdi January 17, 2011 8:18 PM GMT
what price will he go off in the pillar do you think boys?
Report buddeliea January 17, 2011 8:20 PM GMT
no midea till i see the opposition
Report Far From Trouble January 17, 2011 8:21 PM GMT
Taranis again?
Punchestowns a possible?
Report Far From Trouble January 17, 2011 8:22 PM GMT
Or Pride Of Dulcote Silly
Report stormey1 January 17, 2011 8:22 PM GMT
TFR
Tidal Bay
Taranis
Carruthers

id expect them to run
any others confirmed?
Report Steeplechasing January 17, 2011 8:27 PM GMT
Stays, has class, is young, jumps superbly (touch wood) 3 from 5 at Cheltenham (2nd to Big Buck's and Tidal Bay in other two). Denman and KS 11 years old (49 years back to last 11-y-o winner).  IC is 10 just two 10-y-o winners since 1990.

I'm not saying he'll win or even run, just that the bet appeals.
Report Far From Trouble January 17, 2011 8:28 PM GMT
What about Midnight Chase?
Weird Al any news?
Neptune Collognes Plain
Report buddeliea January 17, 2011 8:28 PM GMT
Aah Tidal,the ol rogue himself,one of my fav hoeses though,just love the way he just does what he likes!!
Report stormey1 January 17, 2011 8:28 PM GMT
Punchestowns goes for AON (tho is entered at Haydock saturday)
Pride of Dulcote Irish Hennessy.

I can see NTD running Ollie Magern and Henderson Barbers Shop
Report Far From Trouble January 17, 2011 8:29 PM GMT
cheers stormey
Report stormey1 January 17, 2011 8:32 PM GMT
Midnight Chase wont run til Festival trainer says
Report Paul4 January 17, 2011 8:34 PM GMT
weird al had breathing op so a case of how quickly they can get it back fit to race. sounds like neptune collonges is being targeted at grand national. midnight chase going straight to festival. willbe interesting to see pride of dulcote against pandorama (think latter will win on soft) in irish hennessy, and what a friend against punchestowns in the AON. starting to heat up alot :D
Report Far From Trouble January 17, 2011 8:37 PM GMT
So it's a match between Tidal Bay and Time For Rupert again then? ffsLaugh
Report stormey1 January 17, 2011 8:46 PM GMT
FFT-Strangely i think even the weights are the same as last years Cleeve!!
TFR 11 4
TB  11 0

Think itl be a diff result tho!!
Report Far From Trouble January 17, 2011 8:49 PM GMT
Aye ;)

TFR would still have to absolutely muller whatever field he's up against to be considered for the Gold Cup imo
Report stormey1 January 17, 2011 8:52 PM GMT
Well im spuds deep on TFR for the RSA at prices from 12s to 6s and to be honest id sooner he wasnt running in this as a win is only gonna increase the pressure to go for Gold
Report Paul4 January 17, 2011 8:53 PM GMT
lay it off at 3s/4s stormey1?
Report Far From Trouble January 17, 2011 8:54 PM GMT
I wasn't overly keen on Time For Rupert for the RSA to begin with, probably because of how keen I was on the previous year's Stayers Hurdle runner up Sad

Been proven utterly wrong with him so far. The RSA is his to lose imv
Report stormey1 January 17, 2011 8:57 PM GMT
Paul4-not my style to lay off.suits some and not others im in the latter camp
Report Paul4 January 17, 2011 8:57 PM GMT
i still like wymott, and think the minack could be something special tbh
Report Paul4 January 17, 2011 9:03 PM GMT
stormey1 im not a layer, i only bet small stakes so just lay off to get my stake back to put on something else :) good luck anyway, im not the biggest time for rupert fan (i rate it, just dont love it) but if it wins then would be deservedly
Report buddeliea January 17, 2011 9:11 PM GMT
Stormey,if Tidal decides to put in a performance he will win against TFR over hurdles every time,fences not so sure though,but i would wager his engine is as good as anyones,his attitude to the game however unfortunately is not.
Report stormey1 January 17, 2011 9:11 PM GMT
Cheers Paul4.to be honest i dont bet much on here mainly deal with regular firms.
As for TFR deep down i think theyl use common sense and go for RSA.
His chance is an obvious 1. Rated 166 over hurdles,loves the track,taken really well to fences,form looks strong.
If he turns up in March and runs his race will take a good 1 to beat him imo.
Report Paul4 January 17, 2011 9:17 PM GMT
i used to, but now figure i may aswel take double the odds or use half the stake (although will cclearly regret that choice when i have 2nds and 2rds at the festival) didnt work out u cud lay with forecast profit until last week (thought u had 2 make new bet laying and wudnt have had enough) which has meant i've wasted a chance to lay as most have come in loads from the prices i took. a lesson learned for next year i guess :(
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