But they won't go as fast in the Ryanair so less chance of being so heavily disadvantaged at that point imo.

surely the 2m4f at aintree is alot sharper than the ryanair 2m5f wayward? and was beaten today by arguably the best 2 miler in training, not bad form for a horse that wants further and stayed like a train yet again. hasnt won at festival but would have if 2 lengths longer run in from last fence, ryanair this year then gold cup year after

I agree with flyingbolt I think 2 miles is this one's best trip. While I think he's run a cracker today, I've said before that I think he's just like ForPady. He won't improve for a step up in trip he just looks like he should becuse he keeps staying on at the end of two miles but at the highest level will keep finding 1 or 2 too good.

Somersby would be fav for the Ryan Air in my opinion, how can you turn that down?

As far as...
 
Wayward Lad Joined: 14 Dec 01
Replies: 160 22 Jan 11 19:17   

flyingbolt and autocue:
Somersby is yet to win at the Festival (from 2 attempts)

I'm taking a leap and assuming you watched those two races. Somersby should have won the Arkle, probably should have won today and probably will win the Ryan Air if the connections see the light.

All the best

Nothing personal, but to be fair the Aintree race was a bit of a non event. I remember the hurdle, pre festival run, was not strong in the betting 5/2 to 5/1 I think, Karabak won.

I backed him at 25's for the Arkle and 12 on here today, those fit and well steeplechase runs tell me the Ryan Air is there to be won.

The connections will assume, wrongly, that running MM close will mean the QM is up for grabs. For me BZ is a very strong favourite and I'm not too sure MM will place any higher than last year.

Masterminded just doesn't convince me.He doesnt seem to find a lot when the gun is put to his head didn't last year and didn't today imo

At the 2M point of the race yesterday MM was still a comfortable winner, at 2M1F of a strongly run race in soft ground at Ascot MM was clinging on and in a few strides more Somersby was in front.

The Arkle and re-scheduled Tingle Creek show how Somersby comes up that Cheltenham hill. The trouble is that in the QM on likelier much faster ground he will probably not be close enough turning in, as with both those previous races.

Will he stay the 2M5F in the Ryan Air? I believe so, indeed before yesterday this seemed the likeliest option and people were even talking Somersby up for the Gold Cup at the start of the season.

Should he run in the Ryan Air? He would have a favourite's chance in this versus a place chance in the QM. An interesting comment made was 'we can always go to the Ryan Air next year', just not something you would say if you thought you had the winner of the QM at 7yo. It seems an easy choice to me but nothing surprises me any more!

^
wasn't a strong finish

Interesting to say he definitely won't stay. Stamina is never something I am too dogmatic about. The likes of One Man, Edredon Blue, Antonin and Fair Along have shown over the years that trip is hugely relevant to ability and the class of race. For all that Somersby may not stay but people seem to be clinging to the irrelevant run at Aintree, not right, over the top, jumped shockingly, actually did well to come 2nd.

I agree Somersby should have won yesterday but to say he was not finishing well? Ignore yesterday and he has finished strongly in the Tingle Creek, Arkle and powered up the run in at Sandown. A primed and ready Somersby would be very interesting in the Ryan Air. However the QM is run, Somersby will need one or two to underperform on all known evidence.

I agree about his jumping at Sandown and think it's telling that it was the last time AP was on board. He needs a very positive ride in my opinion, unlike the one choc gave him at Cheltenham. It was a shame AP was claimed for Captain Cee Bee before the Arkle as Hen wanted to keep the partnership intact. I think the jockey did OK yesterday, the horse just hit a flat spot at a bad time then came up the straight really well. He is improving and could have a chance on soft ground in the QM though on better ground I would definitely go for the Ryanair.

In my initial post on Somersby, I wrote: "If it were guaranteed to reach the Festival in a condition to race then yes, it would have a 10/1 chance."
Should Be Studying has written: "A primed and ready Somersby would be very interesting in the Ryan Air."
To my mind, those statements say the same thing.

Henrietta Knight has only sent out 4 winners this season - from 112 runners. That suggests she's not doing her job properly. She's only had 1 winner at Cheltenham from her last 25 runners (over past 3 seasons).

RP Ratings have used Master Minded to rate Sat's race, with a basic calc of taking 7lb off his OR178 rating. Personally, I would suggest that MM ran a bit worse than that.
From what we've seen on the track, Somersby looks capable of running to 165, perhaps 167, but that level of performance over 2-mile won't win the QMCC, and it's debateable whether the horse can match that performance over 2m5f in the Ryanair, as he's not shown the level of ability required in previous attempts at trips beyond 17f whether chasing or hurdling.

Autocue: reading between the lines of your posts, it seems you may be closely linked in some way to Henrietta Knight or her stable and so you may not be able to look at her (recent) training record impartially. She is on record as being a trainer who "wraps her horses in cotton-wool" - so, highlighting that aspect of her personality is not an insult to her character.
And everybody, including yourself, uses a nom-de-plume; so you can hardly accuse me of hiding behind one.
Try typing "wayward lad" into google.

im still amazed that every punter who watches NH racing can see somersby needs that extra step up in trip, apart from the muppet trainer, over 2m you were knowhere near master minded , cant u see he needs the extra trip ffs

flying bolt what i meant was , 1f out somersby was 10lths behind masterminded , he only started to close the gap after that , we all know masterminded barely stays that trip n thats why somersby was catching him , a step up to 2m 4f in the ryan air is absolutly ideal for this horse m cant see how H K cant see it

Nick Mordin has written an interesting page on his website on the Master Minded / Somersby race.
He seems to be of the opinion that Somersby is best at 2-mile (rather than 20f+) and quotes Henrietta Knight as thinking along the same lines.
If Knight sends Somersby for the QMCC, then there will be a lot of wasted Ryanair antepost slips.

Imo this horse lacks tactical speed and therefore will always struggle to win in the top grade especially at the festival. It seems a pattern in his races that when the pace quickens he struggles and consequently pressure is put on his jumping and then he runs on when other horses are tiring and their strides are shortening. A step up in trip could be worth a try but I think it is likely he will prove tripless at the top level.

Cheers for that,Graeme.

I'll jack it in then after 40 years.

I feel like jacking it in all the while Flyingbolt....

Simple question, do any of the advocates of Somersby running in the QM actually think he can win it? It all seems desperate clinging to ante post hopes. You read it on other threads with people saying Time For Rupert or Big Bucks should run in the Gold Cup.

Somersby has run well in the two best '2M' chases in the England this year, of course the second one was actually 2M 1F on horrible Ascot soft. I do not think it was coincidence the latter showed Somersby in his best light.

Anybody holding a concrete view that he will not stay the Ryan Air trip is basing this on very limited evidence. A pre festival hurdle run two years ago and an over the top, everything going wrong Aintree run. If he does stay, it is very hard to see the likes of Poquelin or Tranquil Sea beating him. Of course they could take the easy option and try and beat Big Zeb, Master Minded etc over their best trip.

its no given that he can beat a bunch of 2 and half specialists,no way.its possible,but no more than that.
suspect that he will be a not quiet good enough 2 miler,who will probably step up next season in the hope that he can succeed over further.imo he will never be top notch at any distance.

So, on both sides of the argument no one really thinks Somersby can win the QM. This is also what any objective assessment of the racecourse evidence would lead you to believe. Stranger things have of course happened.

Everything I have seen suggest Somersby's best 'possible' chance for victory at the festival is the Ryan Air, for all it is a grade 1 it does not feature horses of the quality of Big Zeb or Master Minded.

I suspect that Somersby will actually benefit from the step up in trip, a personal opinion that can only be borne out by it happening.

For what it is worth I have backed Big Zeb and Kalahari King ante post for the respective races, I will also back Somersby if he runs in the Ryan Air, but not if he runs in the QM.