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resner not lesnar
15 Jan 11 16:11
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Date Joined: 14 Oct 06
| Topic/replies: 1,899 | Blogger: resner not lesnar's blog
They say he's as good as ever at home, but I thought he showed his age today.
It reminded me of a boxer towards the end of their career, they just get old over the course of one fight. They can train as well as ever but when they get in the ring its just not there anymore.
I hope they retire him though I don't think they will. This worries me because of the way he can crash thru fences when under pressure. For me he is certain to come under pressure in the Gold Cup, I just can't see any reason to run him. He's a great who is now old and deserves a long retirement.

What do the rest of you think?
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Report CVByrne January 15, 2011 4:16 PM GMT
It's only one bad performance. He deserves to run in the Gold Cup and be retired after that whatever the result.
Report TINnotaTON January 15, 2011 4:17 PM GMT
of course you'll get both sides of the fence here, but im with you im afraid
Report denman85 January 15, 2011 4:26 PM GMT
imo- kauto will be back, was never travelling today  TM never got the horse in a rhythm like ruby  or others do, my main blame goes to  AP done the same on Denman asking for big jumps when these types of horses jump themseles, hes not used to riding top class chasers, hurdle different matter, but hes not used to this sort of horse over fences
Report resner not lesnar January 15, 2011 4:29 PM GMT
CV I know how you feel about Kauto and I feel the similarly, but he's gone. he can't produce the level of performance needed to win a Gold Cup so why run him. I appreciate it's only one run, but there was nothing there today yet at home he's as good as ever. It's time to retire him.
Report bring on chelt!!! January 15, 2011 4:31 PM GMT
It seems inevitable that Gold Cup and then retirement. I cannot see why a run which should have been 2nd in a King George means you have to retire him now...doesnt make sense unless he was injured
Report CVByrne January 15, 2011 4:35 PM GMT
especially given nicholls stanle is in shocking form, he's had 1 winner I think in the past week.
Report resner not lesnar January 15, 2011 4:35 PM GMT
I disagree denman85, Ap not at fault today, I think thats as goods as Kauto is now (tho I don't want to believe it). It's too easy to blame McCoy. FWIW I was concerned about how his style would match up with Kauto, but I don't think he did much if anything wrong today. I don't think you can say with much confidence that if Ruby was riding the result would have been different
Report denman85 January 15, 2011 4:41 PM GMT
i just thought McCoy never let the horse do the jumping like ruby does, several times he was pushed into fences when kautos style has never been like throughout itsd career, have a feeling ruby will be cringe at way mcCoy got on with horse today! and btw i never backed Kauto so no sour grapes here
Report Far From Trouble January 15, 2011 4:43 PM GMT
Champion Chase Silly
Report rogerthebutler January 15, 2011 4:44 PM GMT
Gold Cup then retirement
Report zilzal1 January 15, 2011 4:47 PM GMT
Kauto looks as if when the pace is turned up after a even gallop(Gold Cup last year as well) that he cant cope with it that well and his jumping suffers, esp in softer ground. If you think back to the highlight of his career 09 KG, Nacarat and Ollie went some pace from the start and middle, as a consequence, Kauto was able to keep the same sort of cruising speed for a lot of the race.

Depends on the ground imo, if he were mine id only run him on good ground at Chelt, maybe id like to see him try and dictate a pace for himself, obv with Denman there that wouldnt be a option though
Report Harchibaldy January 15, 2011 4:48 PM GMT
I think he should be given one more chance but after today's performance, I do fear it's looking like the end of the road for him. Father Time catches up with them all eventuallySad
Report resner not lesnar January 15, 2011 4:49 PM GMT
can i just ask those who think he should run whether they think he will win and whether they will be backing him. Because if not why then should he run?
Report CVByrne January 15, 2011 4:52 PM GMT
Who cares if he's beaten in the Gold Cup. He owes us nothing. But he deserves to sign off in that race.
Report zilzal1 January 15, 2011 4:53 PM GMT
CV, i wouldnt like to see him run on soft ground again, thats only my opinion though
Report resner not lesnar January 15, 2011 4:57 PM GMT
I'm not worried about his record or legacy, I'm worried about him getting round in one piece CV.
If he comes under pressure which he undoubtably he will make mistakes. Watching that fall from last years GC today again - I'm still not sure how he survived - I just don't see the point in running him when another bad mistake is a distinct possibility and certainly more likely than winning
Report gutfeeling January 15, 2011 5:08 PM GMT
gold cup/retirement and a long and happy life living comfortably in a field on clive smiths ample land for what has been probably the greatest national hunt horse in my lifetime,ran his heart out today but the torch i feel has been passed.
be nice to see him get his last run at the course he has given us so many heart stopping and jaw dropping moments and a great send off by those that not only applaude the winners but also those that have given us as fans of the sport so much pleasure be it watching or debating over the years.

see you in march kauto and win lose or draw you'll be remembered as a winner Happy
Report rymattock January 15, 2011 5:48 PM GMT
i didnt bk Kauto bt watchin the races, thought McCoy didnt ride him that well. from the off he was thowing him over thm asking him to jump. didnt get the chance to get in2 a rhythm.  shame Sad
Report mrplacepot January 15, 2011 6:12 PM GMT
10/1 cracking each way bet

Dont knock him hes been a brilliant horse
Report Ibrahima Sonko January 15, 2011 6:23 PM GMT
If ruby is fit then he should go for the gold cup.
Report resner not lesnar January 15, 2011 6:34 PM GMT
Not knocking him in the slightest Mrplacepot or questioning his brilliance, just think he's got old and would rather see him retired than run in a race he can't win IMO
Report R Carver January 15, 2011 6:57 PM GMT
I pray they retire him - nothing can be gained from running in a Gold Cup IMO. I love him and it is time to call it a day, he's still high class and I am sure the stable form is not A1, but I would rather se this superstar parading in front of me in Club before the off than having another hard race in a race I just cannot see how he can win..
Report call it a day January 15, 2011 7:05 PM GMT
.
Report bosra shame January 15, 2011 7:13 PM GMT
Please retire him now Mr Smith.Going for another Gold Cup when he appears to be going at the game would be sheer greed on your behalf.  You have had 6 great seasons with the horse and he owes you nothing. Get him out to grass now while you still can and we can all reflect on the greatest chaser we have all seen in the last 40 years.
Report Steamship January 15, 2011 7:16 PM GMT
He finished third today beaten by Henderson horses, if we should retire Kauto after todays run then what should we do with the 6 that finished behind him. He is allowed a poor run and there may be excuses for today ie stable form, ground, jockey or beaten by 2 from a good stable. I cannot see him winning the GC but did not before today. Nicholls knows what he is doing and will do the right thing.
Report asterisk1 January 15, 2011 7:23 PM GMT
If he had fallen today, I seriously think they would have called time and retired him immediately. However, the fact he didn't fall doesn't mean anything more to me because it was his usual guts and heart that got him out of the pickle once again. But to me it's just too much now. Fell at Gold Cup, almost fell today at Kempton a course he loves and breezes through previously like he's doing a mere workout. I love this horse more than anything and have done so since the very start but heart and guts is different when you are facing natural aging process and weaker strength.
Report resner not lesnar January 15, 2011 7:37 PM GMT
Don't misunderstand this, but I don't care as much about the others. That doesn't mean I wish them any ill, I don't. While most are 9 or 10 none are as old as Kauto, and if their connections believe they have something to offer, then its up to them. However not many are likely to run in the GC.
I view Kauto running again particularly in The GC as a big risk. He is showing his age, and with this is becoming more vulnerable. When he comes under pressure he makes big mistakes now and Cheltenham is less forgiving than Kempton. He was lucky to escape with his life last year, I don't want to see him make another potentially fatal error again, which given he will up against better horses at a course which suits him less is inevitable.
Report rogerthebutler January 15, 2011 9:05 PM GMT
If any other horse than KS was the reigning James Nicholson Champion and came 3rd in the king George, there would be no debate.

He has earned the right to run in the Gold Cup.

He has definitely earned the right to have what will probably turn out to be his swansong, at Prestbury Park, in mid-March, in front of 75,000 people.
Report Howdi January 15, 2011 9:23 PM GMT
^^^ oh not 75,000 this year was bad enough getting to the bog last year with 65,000
Cry
Report resner not lesnar January 15, 2011 9:50 PM GMT
Roger, I'm not saying he would be out of place or hasn't earnt it. He's earnt it more than any of them. All I'm saying is if he has little or no chance of winning why take the risk?
Report Howdi January 15, 2011 9:56 PM GMT
Be a sad day when its announced
Report magic carpet January 15, 2011 9:58 PM GMT
Got to be the end of the road please let us remember the good times forget the arguement that he was third in a grade one king george, anyone who thinks kauto can recapture the brilliance of past years is deluding themselves he was a shadow of his former glory today he deserves a long happy and safe retirement
Report aka January 15, 2011 10:16 PM GMT
You always want them to go out at their very best, which inevitably is very difficult to achieve. I wouldn't want to see him race again in the Gold Cup if the ground came up anything like it was for the 2010 renewal. On better ground, it would be good to see him again in a suitable final race in the spring, whether he wins or not.

I haven't looked at the sectional times yet, but Zilkal's point below about how the pace profile of the race today might have impacted on Kauto's performance is a useful point to make and something I would want to think more about. That may have been a more significant point than McCoy's riding.
Report duffy January 15, 2011 10:31 PM GMT
I think he deserves to run in the gold cup for sure, today he was not happy from the off but the ground would not have been to his liking whereas the winner loved the ground and long runs jumping was infinitely better than it had been previously....the thing is he never ran a shocker but as we have got to know kauto we can see from early on if he is having one of his off days or not as there is usually niggles from the saddle early on as there was today.

Considering that in effect he was beaten from a long way out , to finish where he did deserves a lot of credit, bear in mind also that it is still debateable whether that performance from long run will be replicated anywhere else.

Kauto is a great champion and as such deserves to carry on certainly to this years gold cup, we are not talking about a fallen hero who is being asked to carry on once he has fallen far below his great days...he's not as good true, but that doesn't mean he doesn't deserve his place in the field.
Report CVByrne January 15, 2011 10:35 PM GMT
Personally I don't really want to spend time here speculating or discussing the horses future. The owner and trainer know what's best for him and they I'm sure they will make the correct decision. This is certainly the horses final season, he'll have one more race or he won't.

I think I'm gonna look to the future now, all good things must come to an end. They did for my last great hero, Moscow Flyer. The do for all heros. Even the best of them, the Great Kauto Star.
Report zilzal1 January 15, 2011 10:36 PM GMT
A point i made on another thread is that its hard to assess how much a horse may have regressed if it only has two or three runs a year

counting todays run and discounting Down Royal he's had 4 meaningful raves since his gold cup victory of 09
One Brilliant
One Gutsy
last two on easy ground have been below par
pricewise using those you could put him at anything from 4-1 to 20-1 for chelt
Report Paul4 January 15, 2011 10:40 PM GMT
whats to stop him running in next king george on much better ground?
Report R Carver January 15, 2011 10:43 PM GMT
He'll be 12Sad
Report zilzal1 January 15, 2011 10:45 PM GMT
nothing, what would your Ante post price be though in oct for the event if he say was 3rd at Chelt though??


Its hard to say how a horse is until he comes off the bridle, he seemingly works well at home
Report Paul4 January 15, 2011 10:49 PM GMT
he'll be 11..?? and dessie won it at that age, and on much better ground (if got it) he would surely still have a chance ofbeing up to it if as well at home as connections report and loves the track
Report magic carpet January 15, 2011 10:55 PM GMT
Desert orchid was ten when he won the gold cup no horse has won the gold cup at any age above ten since the 1960s
Report R Carver January 15, 2011 10:56 PM GMT
Yes, sorry, only 12 if they run the KG in 2012! Still, too old was the point i was (trying and failing) to make!
Report resner not lesnar January 15, 2011 10:59 PM GMT
Did anyone see PN say after the race that Cheltenham would suit him more than Kempton now because he's slower. While I think I understand what he was trying to say, he was also basically admitting Kauto isn't the horse he was. If thats so he can't win at Cheltenham against better horse.
If he can't win, and therefore is going to come under pressure which could lead to a life threatening mistake why take the risk for the sake of another run in a race he can't win.
Perhaps some feel I'm being melodramatic but thats just how I see it.
Report inchcailoch January 15, 2011 10:59 PM GMT
I didn't lIke the way McCoy rode him, great jockey and all but his style didn't seem to suit the horse IMO
Report zilzal1 January 15, 2011 11:00 PM GMT
You can be well at home though and still regress

i remember Ruby being asked when he knew Kauto was on a off day, he said it was only when you had to ask him for something, then you knew within strides
Report duffy January 15, 2011 11:02 PM GMT
days like today really emphasises the difference between the flat and jumps....when perhaps we are on the verge of bidding farewell to a great that we've all ridden along with over the past few years and grown to really love it leaves sadness doesn't it...but we wouldn't swap it would we.
Report magic carpet January 15, 2011 11:02 PM GMT
He seems to have lost the change of pace of former years the king george is a speed favouring race i suppose the gold cup will be a different test,but as i stated earlier he isn't the same horse as in previous years and i hope they call time on a legendery career
Report Paul4 January 15, 2011 11:07 PM GMT
dessie not 11 in 1990 king george? either way i agree its a tough ask, but i would never write off a horse like kauto
Report magic carpet January 15, 2011 11:11 PM GMT
No he was 12 in the 1991 king george in which he ran behind the fellow,sorry i thought u meant the gold cup earlier
Report resner not lesnar January 15, 2011 11:12 PM GMT
I don't think you can blame McCoy, it's not like Ruby hasn't rousted him along or pushed him into fences when he's had off days in the past. I actually thought McCoy was rather considerate when he realised there was nothing there. Wouldn't have made any difference who rode him today
Report magic carpet January 15, 2011 11:14 PM GMT
R carver ignore me my friend its been a very long day crossed wires yet again he did win the kg in 1991 at 11
Report duffy January 15, 2011 11:16 PM GMT
why don't you two just settle with...."he was knocking on a bit"[;)]
Report R Carver January 15, 2011 11:17 PM GMT
Magic - i think that was for Paul, but i know what you mean anyway, it has been a long and trying day! GL MC. RC.
Report neill d January 15, 2011 11:18 PM GMT
Its tough to let him go, one more time Gold Cup then finish
Report brigust1 January 15, 2011 11:19 PM GMT
If the two NH horses hadn't run today then KS would have beaten Nacarrat quite easily with his other foes well behind, as usual.
Today he met two in form Kempton specialists he hadn't met before. The form may be right but would any of the 2 Kempton specialist who beat him today do the same in the Gold Cup? I don't think so.
I think there is too much knee jerking here.
A horse got beat ffs. There could be dozens of reasons yet most people seem to be jumping to the same conclusion without any back up.
If KS ran against horses he had already beaten at Kempton and they beat him I would understand it but they didn't.
And Long Run was backed off the boards by somebody.
Get a grip ffs.
Report Paul4 January 15, 2011 11:22 PM GMT
haha no need for apologies! i had togoogle it to make sure, before my time! :)
Report magic carpet January 15, 2011 11:25 PM GMT
sorry paul it was meant for u
Report eric_morris January 15, 2011 11:31 PM GMT
If it is good ground it will favour him in a Gold Cup and not a couple of the others. Long Run may not act at the track. If Ruby is back mid Feb he is way more suited to Kauto than AP. They can delay a decision pending these factors and also the horses condition nearer the time. There is nothing to be gained in making a hasty decision now. We all know he is/was predominently a speed over stamina horse however on quicker ground he would need less stamina as in the 2 Gold Cups he won. If a pace is on, on not so quick ground he has always struggled for stamina at Chelts.

Now they have equalled Desert Orchid's achievements in the King George you can be sure they will want to equal Best Mate's achievements in the greatest NH chase of them all, the Gold Cup.

Also Commander In Chief missed the King George, it is possible he or others could have a setback before the Gold Cup giving it an open look.
Report eric_morris January 15, 2011 11:33 PM GMT
Imperial Commander
Report resner not lesnar January 15, 2011 11:36 PM GMT
brigust, you could say that about any race. More to the point is if Kauto was as good as he was he would have finished in front of those two horses - but he isn't.
Mine isn't a knee jerk reaction, it's just my view, my argument against him running again.

Let's just say he runs, falls and is killed at Cheltenham running in a race he can't win how would we all feel then? Up until now altho it would be totally gutting I could have accepted that because he's race horse and thats what is supposed to do, but thats because he has always had a chance to win.
Now he doesn't IMO so whats the point.
Report eric_morris January 15, 2011 11:41 PM GMT
On good ground he doesnt have a chance to win? What if there are significant none runners? Why not wait until closer to the time and decide, it is only 8 weeks away, Ruby will be back and can school him to see how he is then, the ground, the opposition can be weighed up. Why be hasty there is no need.
Report neill d January 15, 2011 11:42 PM GMT
Brigust, I find it difficult to be objective about this horse to be honest, he gould place in a good ground Gold Cup I suppose......... I just hate seeing him beat, its like when Nadal beat Federer at Wimbeldon
Report brigust1 January 15, 2011 11:45 PM GMT
Resner exactly what form line are you using where KS finishes in front of Long Run and Riverside Theatre at Kempton. He has never met them before.
If, on the other hand, a horse he had easily beat in this race then beat him today you would have a case but on today's evidence you don't. Without the 2 Henderson horses he wins as expected, what would you be saying then? Favourite for the Gold Cup no doubt.
Put it this way.
If you were KS and you were lauded as being the next Arkle then you had an off day and a couple of new youngsters beat you. Would you not want one more shot to go out on a high note?
And please don't use the 'falls and breaks a leg argument'. No-one would ever do anything, ever.
Report neill d January 15, 2011 11:47 PM GMT
Ruby might be worth a few lengths as well.
Report magic carpet January 15, 2011 11:48 PM GMT
Even without the first two kauto struggled past nacarat who he slammed twelve months earlier
Report brigust1 January 15, 2011 11:55 PM GMT
Magic, Tom George thought Nacarrat blew it last year by going off too fast and paid the penalty late on. This year he said he had him in better form and has just done the best work he has ever done.
Plus PN's horses just aren't firing at the moment.
I'm not saying KS is, or was unbeatable, like some, but lets be a little realistic.
Report great grey January 15, 2011 11:56 PM GMT
ithink we have seen a really top class winner in long run. i firmly believe that the 193 rating for kauto star last year was a complete overreaction. last years field was the weakest i have seen for a king george. when kauto star is taken out of his comfort zone and rhythem he is vulnerable as his jumping goes to pieces as has been shown in the 2 fast run gold cups of 2008 and 2010.
Report magic carpet January 15, 2011 11:59 PM GMT
Fair comment your probably right
Report Paul4 January 15, 2011 11:59 PM GMT
im always willing to ignore one poor run, in fact usualy more likely to back as better price. but imo kauto ran poorly last gold cup, won a poor grade 1 at down royal, and was comfortably beaten today. however.... IF the ground was good, i would still be interested in backing him, as he is undoubtedly a class horse and nearly all poor runs have been on poor ground. i dont think he will win the gold cup if he goes for it, but i wouldnt rule out a small saver if he gets good ground at the likely longer odds that will be available on the back of todays and last years gold cup performances
Report tomdeane January 16, 2011 12:00 AM GMT
CV Byrne:

Personally I don't really want to spend time here speculating or discussing the horses future. The owner and trainer know what's best for him and they I'm sure they will make the correct decision. This is certainly the horses final season, he'll have one more race or he won't.

I think I'm gonna look to the future now, all good things must come to an end. They did for my last great hero, Moscow Flyer. The do for all heros. Even the best of them, the Great Kauto Star.


But, as others have mentioned, the point is that Kauto makes more mistakes when he is under pressure and as it looks likely that he is regressing (not based on today's run, but on his last three) it is almost certain that he will be under pressure in the Gold Cup. It seems to me it is not worth risking him. He does not need to bow out in front of 75,000 people to be remembered.

All good things do come to an end. But there are plenty whose ends come too soon (Doran's Pride being the best recent example). Please God make sure this majestic horse is able to enjoy a long and happy retirement.
Report Extreme Conviction January 16, 2011 12:02 AM GMT
Personally I've never been the horses biggest fan, but I too think there's been a massive over exaggeration after today's race.

Kauto Star's disappointed before and people are just writing him off because of his age which is ludicrous.

It just all doesn't add up to me. Baker and Nicholl's said before the race he was as good as he ever was and even though I was 100% impressed with his first run, better judges than me (for example Tom Segal) thought it was a perfectly acceptable first run. Today's run was just too bad to be true as to me he was visible in trouble going out for the second circuit and did remarkably well to end up where he did in my opinion with his class only enabling him to stay in it. If he was totally gone I would have expected a performance more Istabraq 2002 or Moscow Flyer 2006. There too are obvious excuses for today.

Firstly most of the stable are obviously not striking at the moment. Nicholls says his are usually quiet at this time of the year due to the flu jabs, but this year they seem worse than normal. Does anyone know what the situation was with Kauto and his jab? I guess he usually waits til after the KG but does anyone know if he had to have it before today or was waiting til next week? Nicholls said he thought the main danger was The Nightingale, who in the end was even worse with no obvious excuses (ground/course perfect), yet no one is writing him off. Also horses such as Brampour, Escortmen and Like Minded all ran totally flat races compared to what was expected of them.

Secondly, I'm sure Walsh being back on the horse will be a massive plus for the horse. I'm not criticising McCoy at all for the ride, as I thought he gave it a perfectly acceptable ride, but the horse has an obvious affinity with Walsh and his pilot know him inside out having ridden him for the past 5 years. Compare this too someone who's sat on him only in a couple of schooling sessions, then improvement should come. Two seasons ago he was beaten when falling behind none other than Snoopy Loopy at Haydock. I'm sure then people were already saying he was in decline after the battering he'd taken at Aintree/Cheltenham at the end of the 2007/2008 season, yet he bounced back with Walsh back on at Kempton. Today in my opinion he was never going and this run should be best forgotton.

First time out he ran too a mark of low-mid 160s in all likelehood. With the usual improvement I could still easily see him running low to mid 170s at least. In this year's transitional Gold Cup that could quite easily be good enough to put him thereabouts.

Looking at the contenders;

Imperial Commander - Has had an absolutely shocking preparation for the race since his win last season and his performances have hardly been up to scratch, yet even though he's 10, only a year younger than Kauto, people aren't writing him off because of his age. He was poor at best at Aintree, before coming to grief and only beat Tidal Bay by 1l last time. Nacarat was beaten 11l and today he was only 5l behind an obviously below par Kauto. Since then he's had an injury and it's anyone's guess how he is now. To be honest he's still probably the most likely winner, but I could easily imagine an on song Kauto beaten him.

Denman - Could easily of gone to the well one too many times. My favourite horse of all time but just don't think his last 2 runs have been up to scratch. No obvious reason why he should turn the tables on Imperial Commander from last year's race. Had another extremely hard race in the Hennessy and is another one you've got to have question marks about.

Long Run, Diamond Harry, Riverside Theatre - Personally would still all have massive question marks about their jumping. Waley-Cohen admitted he can't shorten into a fence well and so had to chuck him at his fences today, this will be so much harder at a course like Cheltenham with it's undulations. Hasn't jumped round properly twice before and I doubt he will again this year. A totally different test to the King George and the history books say 6 year olds struggle in the Gold Cup. Diamond Harry and Riverside Theatre have both jumped well at there preferred tracks this season but didn't handle Cheltenham at all last year and thus to my eye can't be bet on at the current prices.


Pandorama, Pride of Dulcote, Punchestowns etc. - Still haven't run a mark above 170, and although they have potential. I think it's an insult to Kauto how close in the betting they are to him.

All in all 12/1 seems good value on Kauto. Or perhaps 8/1 NRNB is better, as they surely won't risk him if he isn't 100%. And this is for the horse that has run in 26 chases in Britain and has gone off at least joint favourite in 25 (going off odds on in 13 of his last 14) of them and even in the one he wasn't he was 3/1. 12/1 = Silly price.

EC
Report Rampage Jackson January 16, 2011 12:04 AM GMT
I think a lot of the people who think kauto should run in the gold cup are the people who have backed him in that race and want a run! You've already done your money im afraid because he wont win another gold cup.

If youve no financial involvement in the race its clear to see he should now be retired.

There's no point running in a race you cant possibly win, let him parade before and enjoy his retirement!

Its like a boxer who go's on too long just one more fight.........
Report eric_morris January 16, 2011 12:05 AM GMT
Kauto Star has always made mistakes, hitting at least one fence in 1 in 2 races causing him to fall in around 1 in 4 races. Good jumper he never has been, he has been as good as he is despite his jumping. He jumps better on top of the ground.
Report R Carver January 16, 2011 12:11 AM GMT
EC - typically comprehensive and reasoned post, except this time I disagre with your analysis of the prospects of Kauto entirely. I agree entirely with Tom Deane. Its a credit to the horse's courage (which we've grown to just expect) that he was so gallant today. He has nothing possible to gain, and only everything to lose.
Report Extreme Conviction January 16, 2011 12:17 AM GMT
Absolutely fair enough RC. I just feel a run of around 175 could easily be enough to win this year's Gold Cup. Do I think there's a 1 in 5 chance or whatever the odds probably suggest of this happening? No - personally think it's probably more a 2/1 shot. To be honest, part of my bet is for a trading purpose, as if he gets there and the team says he's on form, there's no chance he's a double figure price.
Report brigust1 January 16, 2011 12:25 AM GMT
Rampage I haven't backed KS for anything and backed Long Run on here at 8.4, thank you.

I just think, from a lifetime involved in racing, this may be a massive over reaction. KS met 2 specialist Kempton horses, don't forget Long Run was just about the best horse in France last season, so he hasn't been beaten by a couple of mugs.

I don't say race him forever but they must give him one more chance to redeem himself.

The KG is a specialist race and, although KS has won it 4 times the form isn't blinding. Today's race was probably the best of them all by some way.
Report tomdeane January 16, 2011 12:26 AM GMT
I should add that I agree - from a betting viewpoint - that Kauto should be shorter than his current price. But to me this game is about more than betting and given that Cheltenham is probably not his favourite stomping ground at the best of times, the risk does not match the potential reward. His exploits will quite possibly never be matched, so why does he need to run in another Gold Cup?
Report tomdeane January 16, 2011 12:27 AM GMT
brigust1 > I don't think he "needs to redeem himself". Kauto Star has earned the right to more respect than that.
Report brigust1 January 16, 2011 12:33 AM GMT
If someone can read it wrong, so they do!

I would rather KS went out on a high note and not necessarily after a defeat.

He may well have to retire after a defeat but I can see few contenders for the Gold Cup lining up so why not?

He is a racehorse, he's earned that at least. 

Is that better?

The Gold Cup is in only a few weeks, he is fit and well and injury free, he can retire then for the rest of his life and the rest of history. If he lost then the history books would say he was too old. But if he won... well? That is not a forgone conclusion.
Report R Carver January 16, 2011 12:34 AM GMT
EC - yes, fair enough, i can see that POV. I'm a bit of a sentamentalist, so I hope the next time I see him is running past me in the stands parading whilst everything else is going to the start in March, and maybe that is making me see this 'call' more B&W than it is. Thanks for coming back. GL.
Report eric_morris January 16, 2011 12:43 AM GMT
They dont need to make a hasty decision there is only 8 weeks to the Gold Cup. They can judge his wellbeing/form at the time, whether the ground will be good, Ruby will be back to school him to help decide, there may be high profile none runners IC didnt make the King George for example. They can sit on it to see if he will get his ideal conditions and if there are high profile none runners nearer the time.
Report R Carver January 16, 2011 12:48 AM GMT
Imo the longer they sit and wait, the more likely they will be tempted (unlss signs of deterioration are obvious) and I am scared stiff for him so i dont want them to be tempted! Make a snap, hasty decision to retire him Mr Michols and Smith [;)]
Report resner not lesnar January 16, 2011 12:57 AM GMT
R Carver, while I think we feel the same on this, do you think they will make that decision? I'm afraid I don't, I'm 100% convinced they will run unless Kauto shows a decline at home which he doesn't appear to be doing yet
Report R Carver January 16, 2011 1:04 AM GMT
Hi Resner - I actually think common sense (as I see it anyway!) will prevail and they'll call it a day. Must be a genuinely tough decision for the immediate connections, if he were mine I might end up giving in to temptation. We'll see, but i think they'll pull up stumps.
Report rogerthebutler January 16, 2011 8:27 AM GMT
I hope they run him and personally I think it's a lot of nonsense to talk about 'going out at the top', like if they didn't retire him that could in anyway diminish the memory of a sporting great.

What do you remember about Istabraq? Him pulling up in his last Champion Hurdle bid or him tearing away fro his field three times beforehand. Ali? Getting beaten up by fighters not fit to lick his boots at the end of his career or him rope-a-doping George Foreman in Zaire?

On Kauto's form of this season he has every right to be there? 'Oh but what if gets injured?' Well, that's the pact you make as a National Hunt fan - honour and respect against the prospect of injury and yes sudden death; it was the same when KS made his debut and it's the same if he lines up for the Gold Cup.

For me, in any sport, the swing is more important than hitting it out of the park every time.
Report brigust1 January 16, 2011 9:29 AM GMT
Well said Roger.
One defeat, by 2 Kempton specialists, and the hearses are lined up. Ridiculous. He was 4/7 before the race so what happened there? Now everyone is saying he is finished.
With Istabraq he was tailed off before they started, there is no way KS will be tailed off in the Gold Cup.
He has a better chance than almost every other possible runner, including Long Run.
In fact with Long Ru's jumping there is more, or as much, chance of him coming to grief in the Gold Cup as there is KS.
Report MontyPanesar January 16, 2011 11:36 AM GMT
IMO, history means alot to Clive Smith. He realises Kauto Star's position in racing history. He is already one of the most successful NH horses there has ever been, and Cheltenham is the grandest stage of them all. The race would just not be the same without him. If he were fit, but retired before the race, we would all be thinking "I bet he could have won", especially if it turns up good ground and Imperial Commander gets turned over. If fit, I don't understand why you wouldn't run him. I'd also be amazed if his last race didn't feature Ruby in the saddle. He is probably the best horse most of us will see in our lifetime, and the Gold Cup will be his swansong. If he ran creditably, it would be a great way to go. If, somehow, he won, imagine the scenes.
Report Far From Trouble January 16, 2011 11:43 AM GMT
roger spot on imv.

If Kauto gets slammed in the Gold Cup then fair enough, he is past it, but he won't be remembered for the way he finished
Report CVByrne January 16, 2011 11:50 AM GMT
Paul sets the record straight following Kauto's King George defeat and targets a return to winning ways in the big one at Cheltenham.

I have just tweeted that Kauto Star "did have a small bleed after the race and will go straight for the Gold Cup now" - but I will expand on that here.

Firstly, I would like to thank all the people who came along to Kempton to cheer on Kauto Star yesterday. And all those who expressed their good wishes before and after the race.

It is an honour to be associated with the horse.

But I can tell you now that reports of his demise are somewhat exaggerated, and there is no talk of retirement here.

I have just spoken to Clive. We agreed that yesterday now gives us a bit of challenge with the horse - and hopefully we, and most importantly, the horse will rise to it.

He will be prepared for a tilt at a third Gold Cup victory in March - different ground, different track, different day - and we would like to aim him for a third victory at Down Royal in the autumn, too.

As long as he is enjoying his racing and running well, then he will continue - he is 11, not 13.

Yesterday, was undoubtedly a big disappointment. He was never travelling or jumping with any real fluency, but it wasn't as if he ran a poor race. Without his blunder at the second last, he probably would have been a fair second to a very good horse.

But that clearly wasn't his best form.

I am not making excuses but I can reveal that when he got back last night and stuck his head in the water bucket, he bled from both nostrils. He has never done it before, and will probably never do it again.

It wasn't a big bleed but it indicates that he probably bled during the race (possibly after his mistake at the second last, which meant he had to dig deep to get home), which would not have aided his cause.

But the horse was fine going into the race. You may have read this morning that he wasn't buzzing in his box yesterday. But he is like a seasoned human athlete these days. Experience of big races breeds a certain calmness, and I think he was A1 going into the race, so there are no excuses on that score.

So it is up to me and my team here at Ditcheat to get him right for Cheltenham; and we will relish the challenge.

We fancied The Nightingale to run well but he may have found 3m too far.

I can reveal exclusively here that he finished distressed and we have discovered that he has a fibrillating heart, similar to the problem that Denman suffered from.

More about him in Friday's column.
Report CVByrne January 16, 2011 11:52 AM GMT
Well said Roger, greats in all sport decline, football, tennis, boxing etc... As Long as Kauto can still win a Grade 1 race why should he stop?

If he hadn't made the mistake at the 2nd last he'd have finished 2nd despite never travelling from the start. 2nd to an excellent young horse who clearly excels at Kempton.
Report brigust1 January 16, 2011 12:42 PM GMT
Thank goodness an element of common sense from Paul Nicholls.
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