Desert orchid was ten when he won the gold cup no horse has won the gold cup at any age above ten since the 1960s

Did anyone see PN say after the race that Cheltenham would suit him more than Kempton now because he's slower. While I think I understand what he was trying to say, he was also basically admitting Kauto isn't the horse he was. If thats so he can't win at Cheltenham against better horse.
If he can't win, and therefore is going to come under pressure which could lead to a life threatening mistake why take the risk for the sake of another run in a race he can't win.
Perhaps some feel I'm being melodramatic but thats just how I see it.

You can be well at home though and still regress

i remember Ruby being asked when he knew Kauto was on a off day, he said it was only when you had to ask him for something, then you knew within strides

He seems to have lost the change of pace of former years the king george is a speed favouring race i suppose the gold cup will be a different test,but as i stated earlier he isn't the same horse as in previous years and i hope they call time on a legendery career

No he was 12 in the 1991 king george in which he ran behind the fellow,sorry i thought u meant the gold cup earlier

R carver ignore me my friend its been a very long day crossed wires yet again he did win the kg in 1991 at 11

Magic - i think that was for Paul, but i know what you mean anyway, it has been a long and trying day! GL MC. RC.

If the two NH horses hadn't run today then KS would have beaten Nacarrat quite easily with his other foes well behind, as usual.
Today he met two in form Kempton specialists he hadn't met before. The form may be right but would any of the 2 Kempton specialist who beat him today do the same in the Gold Cup? I don't think so.
I think there is too much knee jerking here.
A horse got beat ffs. There could be dozens of reasons yet most people seem to be jumping to the same conclusion without any back up.
If KS ran against horses he had already beaten at Kempton and they beat him I would understand it but they didn't.
And Long Run was backed off the boards by somebody.
Get a grip ffs.

sorry paul it was meant for u

Imperial Commander

On good ground he doesnt have a chance to win? What if there are significant none runners? Why not wait until closer to the time and decide, it is only 8 weeks away, Ruby will be back and can school him to see how he is then, the ground, the opposition can be weighed up. Why be hasty there is no need.

Resner exactly what form line are you using where KS finishes in front of Long Run and Riverside Theatre at Kempton. He has never met them before.
If, on the other hand, a horse he had easily beat in this race then beat him today you would have a case but on today's evidence you don't. Without the 2 Henderson horses he wins as expected, what would you be saying then? Favourite for the Gold Cup no doubt.
Put it this way.
If you were KS and you were lauded as being the next Arkle then you had an off day and a couple of new youngsters beat you. Would you not want one more shot to go out on a high note?
And please don't use the 'falls and breaks a leg argument'. No-one would ever do anything, ever.

Even without the first two kauto struggled past nacarat who he slammed twelve months earlier

ithink we have seen a really top class winner in long run. i firmly believe that the 193 rating for kauto star last year was a complete overreaction. last years field was the weakest i have seen for a king george. when kauto star is taken out of his comfort zone and rhythem he is vulnerable as his jumping goes to pieces as has been shown in the 2 fast run gold cups of 2008 and 2010.

im always willing to ignore one poor run, in fact usualy more likely to back as better price. but imo kauto ran poorly last gold cup, won a poor grade 1 at down royal, and was comfortably beaten today. however.... IF the ground was good, i would still be interested in backing him, as he is undoubtedly a class horse and nearly all poor runs have been on poor ground. i dont think he will win the gold cup if he goes for it, but i wouldnt rule out a small saver if he gets good ground at the likely longer odds that will be available on the back of todays and last years gold cup performances

Personally I've never been the horses biggest fan, but I too think there's been a massive over exaggeration after today's race.

Kauto Star's disappointed before and people are just writing him off because of his age which is ludicrous.

It just all doesn't add up to me. Baker and Nicholl's said before the race he was as good as he ever was and even though I was 100% impressed with his first run, better judges than me (for example Tom Segal) thought it was a perfectly acceptable first run. Today's run was just too bad to be true as to me he was visible in trouble going out for the second circuit and did remarkably well to end up where he did in my opinion with his class only enabling him to stay in it. If he was totally gone I would have expected a performance more Istabraq 2002 or Moscow Flyer 2006. There too are obvious excuses for today.

Firstly most of the stable are obviously not striking at the moment. Nicholls says his are usually quiet at this time of the year due to the flu jabs, but this year they seem worse than normal. Does anyone know what the situation was with Kauto and his jab? I guess he usually waits til after the KG but does anyone know if he had to have it before today or was waiting til next week? Nicholls said he thought the main danger was The Nightingale, who in the end was even worse with no obvious excuses (ground/course perfect), yet no one is writing him off. Also horses such as Brampour, Escortmen and Like Minded all ran totally flat races compared to what was expected of them.

Secondly, I'm sure Walsh being back on the horse will be a massive plus for the horse. I'm not criticising McCoy at all for the ride, as I thought he gave it a perfectly acceptable ride, but the horse has an obvious affinity with Walsh and his pilot know him inside out having ridden him for the past 5 years. Compare this too someone who's sat on him only in a couple of schooling sessions, then improvement should come. Two seasons ago he was beaten when falling behind none other than Snoopy Loopy at Haydock. I'm sure then people were already saying he was in decline after the battering he'd taken at Aintree/Cheltenham at the end of the 2007/2008 season, yet he bounced back with Walsh back on at Kempton. Today in my opinion he was never going and this run should be best forgotton.

First time out he ran too a mark of low-mid 160s in all likelehood. With the usual improvement I could still easily see him running low to mid 170s at least. In this year's transitional Gold Cup that could quite easily be good enough to put him thereabouts.

Looking at the contenders;

Imperial Commander - Has had an absolutely shocking preparation for the race since his win last season and his performances have hardly been up to scratch, yet even though he's 10, only a year younger than Kauto, people aren't writing him off because of his age. He was poor at best at Aintree, before coming to grief and only beat Tidal Bay by 1l last time. Nacarat was beaten 11l and today he was only 5l behind an obviously below par Kauto. Since then he's had an injury and it's anyone's guess how he is now. To be honest he's still probably the most likely winner, but I could easily imagine an on song Kauto beaten him.

Denman - Could easily of gone to the well one too many times. My favourite horse of all time but just don't think his last 2 runs have been up to scratch. No obvious reason why he should turn the tables on Imperial Commander from last year's race. Had another extremely hard race in the Hennessy and is another one you've got to have question marks about.

Long Run, Diamond Harry, Riverside Theatre - Personally would still all have massive question marks about their jumping. Waley-Cohen admitted he can't shorten into a fence well and so had to chuck him at his fences today, this will be so much harder at a course like Cheltenham with it's undulations. Hasn't jumped round properly twice before and I doubt he will again this year. A totally different test to the King George and the history books say 6 year olds struggle in the Gold Cup. Diamond Harry and Riverside Theatre have both jumped well at there preferred tracks this season but didn't handle Cheltenham at all last year and thus to my eye can't be bet on at the current prices.


Pandorama, Pride of Dulcote, Punchestowns etc. - Still haven't run a mark above 170, and although they have potential. I think it's an insult to Kauto how close in the betting they are to him.

All in all 12/1 seems good value on Kauto. Or perhaps 8/1 NRNB is better, as they surely won't risk him if he isn't 100%. And this is for the horse that has run in 26 chases in Britain and has gone off at least joint favourite in 25 (going off odds on in 13 of his last 14) of them and even in the one he wasn't he was 3/1. 12/1 = Silly price.

EC

Kauto Star has always made mistakes, hitting at least one fence in 1 in 2 races causing him to fall in around 1 in 4 races. Good jumper he never has been, he has been as good as he is despite his jumping. He jumps better on top of the ground.

Absolutely fair enough RC. I just feel a run of around 175 could easily be enough to win this year's Gold Cup. Do I think there's a 1 in 5 chance or whatever the odds probably suggest of this happening? No - personally think it's probably more a 2/1 shot. To be honest, part of my bet is for a trading purpose, as if he gets there and the team says he's on form, there's no chance he's a double figure price.

I should add that I agree - from a betting viewpoint - that Kauto should be shorter than his current price. But to me this game is about more than betting and given that Cheltenham is probably not his favourite stomping ground at the best of times, the risk does not match the potential reward. His exploits will quite possibly never be matched, so why does he need to run in another Gold Cup?

If someone can read it wrong, so they do!

I would rather KS went out on a high note and not necessarily after a defeat.

He may well have to retire after a defeat but I can see few contenders for the Gold Cup lining up so why not?

He is a racehorse, he's earned that at least. 

Is that better?

The Gold Cup is in only a few weeks, he is fit and well and injury free, he can retire then for the rest of his life and the rest of history. If he lost then the history books would say he was too old. But if he won... well? That is not a forgone conclusion.