Cheltenham Festival
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Is Webber going to ruin Time For Rupert?
Is Webber going to ruin Time For Rupert?
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Replies: 73
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Dont think Gloria Victis is a fair comparison , at least TFR can go left handed .There are plenty of stats on various Chelt races that favour novices against their more seasoned counterparts , ok not in the GC , but that requires something special in a novice that we have yet to see . Doesnt make it an absolute no no in my book .
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ok i mentioned on the "what have we learned about the rsa this weekend" thread that if he wins the argento he may be aimed at the gold cup and it seems to have stirred up some thoughts so here's the go.....trainer wants to go rsa/owner fancies gold cup,told by a friend who is very close to the yard and visits quite regular(weekly) as has known webber for a long time..personally i think the rsa is the better option as has time on his side but i dont own the horse and neither do any of you so its down to webber to convince owner otherwise as i doubt they log on and let these threads decide anything for them,would like to see him hack up in the argento myself then publically state they are staying within the novice ranks this year but right at this moment it is all up for discussion...if i hear anymore i will pass it on.
best wishes. |
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I don't think its a great year for staying novices and I dont think Rupert will be winning any Gold Cups to be honest, he jumps nicely but I don't think he has the engine of a Gold Cup winner. Not really relevant exactly but if Quevega and Rupert met in a 3mile hurdle I'd fancy Quevega. As I say don't think the staying Novices are up to much, If Hells Bay is taking high rank it says it all really.
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Personally I think TFR should run in the RSA,however after Kauto's performance today I just wonder if connections will go the Gold Cup route.....(Before you ask Eric, the answer is yes I have backed TFR for the Gold Cup.......£3.34 @ 303.59 [;)]
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Cant believe they are even talking about the GC
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looks a wide open gold cup considering the age of the main players..
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Maybe they will have to learn the hard way it is the wrong thing to do but I doubt it am pretty sure they will take the Denman and Long Run route to the Gold Cup by learning his trade in the RSA before taking on the seniors.
Long Run will be a bigger threat to Imperial Commander than Kauto would have been anyway he is a young up and coming horse who has the experience of a novice season and RSA behind him as the foundation for his current jumping ability. He looked dodgy at times last season but his novice season has got that together and their patience is paying off as it did with Denman. They'd be crazy to go Gold Cup this season when they can try and win the RSA then come out as next seasons Long Run ready to go for Gold for a few seasons. |
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ok folks - the reason rupert is running in the pillar (argento or whatever it is called this week) is that the horse adores cheltenham. where else does he get a 2m 5f+ novice race for him in advance - the Reynoldstown at ascot wouldnt suit and as the horse runs best fresh is too close to the festival. there is a race at wetherby but why travel all that way when the pillar is up the road and in all likliehood what will be in it? Barbers shop/tidal bay/deep purple maybe - thats about it. The 2 softest races pre cheltenham will be the pillar and the grade 1 betfair at ascot. Albertas, planet of sound et al got a proper gruelling today - so webbers decision, albeit outside novice company, is absolutely the right one - if he wins he will be evens for the rsa (mikael or no mikael) and they will have to go there. webber is a sensible man and wil do right by his horse
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agree they wud b crazzy to go for the gold cup. rsa will b no walk in the park and the gold cup looks like a strong year. imperial commander is very lightly races horse for 10 years old. he guna b very had to stop.
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Denman came out of his novice season after victory in the RSA Chase and won the Hennessy and Gold Cup. Long Run just came out of his novice season from the RSA Chase and won the King George. It could be they might try to rush Time For Rupert which history shows is a bad idea. Has a great chance to win the RSA then follow in the footsteps of Denman and Long Run next season. The Pillar is a lousy Gold Cup trial anyway they must be mad if they are going to go unplaced in a Gold Cup or worse.
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I agree that TFR should be in the RSA come mid-March but more because it looks as though next year's Gold Cup will be wide open whereas I don't see Kauto Star, Denman and Imperial Commander all running sufficiently below-par to make this year's race a weak one. I'm not as against novices taking on their elders as some - at least not per se.
Out of interest, what are the stats for novices running in the Gold Cup? Are we sure this isn't another one of those "5-year-old's have awful records in the Champion Hurdle" quotes? How many novices running in the GC have had realistic chances? |
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Stays, has class, is young, jumps superbly (touch wood) 3 from 5 at Cheltenham (2nd to Big Buck's and Tidal Bay in other two). Denman and KS 11 years old (49 years back to last 11-y-o winner). IC is 10 just two 10-y-o winners since 1990.
16/1 NRNB available. If he skates up in the Argento he will shorten for the GC. If he struggles he won't run in GC - money back. |
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The Pillar is a lousy Gold Cup trial anyway
Not brilliant last 3 years but pretty sound trial overall 1997 One Man 9 Richard Dunwoody Gordon W. Richards 1998 See More Business 8 Timmy Murphy Paul Nicholls 1999 Cyfor Malta 6 Tony McCoy Martin Pipe 2000 Looks Like Trouble 8 Norman Williamson Noel Chance 2001 See More Business 11 Mick Fitzgerald Paul Nicholls 2002 Rince Ri 9 Ruby Walsh Ted Walsh 2003 Behrajan 8 Richard Johnson Henry Daly 2004 Jair du Cochet 7 Jacques Ricou Guillaume Macaire 2005 Grey Abbey 11 Graham Lee Howard Johnson 2006 See You Sometime [1] 11 Andrew Thornton Seamus Mullins 2007 Exotic Dancer 7 Tony McCoy Jonjo O'Neill 2008 Knowhere 10 Paddy Brennan Nigel Twiston-Davies 2009 Joe Lively 10 Joe Tizzard Colin Tizzard 2010 Taranis |
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The answer to the original question has to be no, nothing wrong has been done so far and the Argento could well prove a good move. In recent years it has become a second division type of trial but TFR will benefit more from this than a 3 runner 1/4 stroll somewhere.
If he wins the Argento, as he may well do, he will likely be a 6/4 shot for the RSA and still a 12/1+ shot for the Gold Cup. TFR only has one chance to win an RSA, will probably never have a stronger chance to win any festival race and the connections are not regulars in the festival winners enclosure. Bearing in mind that the last three high quality winners of the Gold Cup and the impressive KG winner Long Run will be in the 2011 race, add in a decent Hennessy winner Diamond Harry, quality grade 1 horses like Pandorama and Punchestowns and that does not even take into account untapped horses like Pride of Dulcote. Does anyone really think TFR will run in the 2011 Gold Cup? People may be talking this up to suit their own purposes, but it would be astonishing if TFR ran in 2011. In 2012 the three titans will be too old, and most of the new pretenders this year will have proved they are not going to win a Gold Cup. Enter TFR!! |
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I would put all those hoses ahead of him as more likely winners as well should be studying, He doesn't have agood enogh chance in the GC to justify missing his one chance at a novice win at the Cheltenam Festival
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didnt read yesterdays r post but some1 told me that webber said that whatever time for rupert does the weekend the rsa will still be the main agenda ???
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apparently owner has cooled off on the gold cup idea......but the words used to describe the horse earlier to me was he is "bouncing" at home....they are very confident for saturday and should announce then that its rsa all the way from here.
i'd say unlucky any who took those fancy prices if they wasnt nrnb but there's always next year. |
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They should keep the option of the gold cup till the last minute though. Always leave yourself options.
It might go backward next year and be useless. The youve missed your best shot of winning it. Needs careeful consideration imo |
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Very weak in the antepost markets right now...
Anything up? |
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Out of saturday - Bad Scope, and apparently going straight for GOLD CUP [:o]
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Has this been reported yet?
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All over Twitter, including people in the industry "reporting" it. Don't shoot the messenger if its BS tho.
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People now saying straight to RSA????
he is defo out of Saturday tho! |
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http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/cheltenham-festival-paul-webber-rsa-fancy-time-for-rupert-out-of-argento/812701/top/
Apologies for RSA scare. |
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Surely more likely to go straight to RSA...hope so anyway.
Betting suspended on Argento with PP. |
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Its on the R Post website now - straight to RSA
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3 words - blessing in disguise - Bolts up in the RSA!!!!!!!!!!!!!1
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If this is the case they have been telling whoppers all along re the Gold Cup. Scared of getting beat on Saturday (bad scope yeah) which is very likely imo against Punchestowns, Hendersons horses on fire and the fact he goes means Hendo fancies him strongly imo, so Rupert's connections giving it a miss as it would take them off course for the Gold Cup. They must be mad they are certainly going to ruin him if the rumour machine is correct, lets hope not.
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5/2 still available Punchestowns bet365 if anyone wants it.
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Weak in the market because of talk of the GC this was a great opportunity for the spoofers to lay the few quid on here to get a better price. Happened with Ghizao last week turned out to be spoofing.
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Time For Rupert was second to Big Buck's in the Ladbrokes World Hurdle last term and is unbeaten in two starts over fences.
Webber, who trains him for the Littlecote Racing Partnership, added: "He'll have five days on antibiotics and a quiet week, then we'll build him up and look again. "He'll go straight to Cheltenham for the RSA Chase." |
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Blessing in disguise as if Henderson has done as excellent a job on Punchestown's jumping as Long Run's I think we are going to see an impressive performance from Punchestown's on Saturday. You wouldn't want a novice to have a test against him and Tidal Bay with only 6 weeks to Cheltenham. Think it was Wayward Prince's connections said they themselves wanted a run pre-Festival that wasn't going to rip the guts out of him which is understandable. Blessing in disguise for Time For Rupert this scope imo.
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agreed
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shows how fast things change eh....a day ago was fine,get home from work to hear the news....least we can expect a fresh tfr in the rsa which can only be a good thing for the horse and of course us backers.
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