Cheltenham Festival
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
11 Jan 11
14:55
Joined:
Date Joined:
30 Mar 08
Below are a list of six horses that I have compiled that are worth keeping a close eye on in the run up to the festival to see if they can develop into serious contenders for the championship races. They are all relatively unhyped horses who, in my opinion, have put up better performances than either the press or bookmakers have given them credit for.
1. Gibb River - Supreme Novices (25/1 VC, SJ)
An above average sort on the flat who was rated 85 at his highest and ran at Royal Ascot at one point. Since then he has been moved to Nicky Henderson. He's won 2 out of 2, with the most impressive performance coming last time at Plumpton under a penalty. They went off a real gallop in the race and many struggled to get into it. By the end of it he had won easily by 7 lengths to Mr Muddle (who was recieving 17lbs). Third was Extremely So (beaten 10l get 7lbs) who had seemed a nice sort when winning first time out at Folkestone at big odds, those 3 pulling a further 15l clear of the field. He was then entered up at the 5 day declarations for the Tolworth last weekend, but was pulled out at the overnight decs, with the stable running Minella Class instead. Minella Class duly bolted up as is now 12s for both the Supreme and the Neptune. Gibb River was presumably pulled out because of the ground, having shown better form on a quicker surface on the flat. It most be a positive that the stable were willing to enter him into the race alongside Minella Class, meaning they probably think him to be of roughly a similar class.
2. For Non Stop - Neptune (89-1 BF), Alber Bartlett (39-1 BF)
Slightly less exposed than Gibb River having already ploughed his trade in handicaps and having already run in a Grade 1. Since joining Nick Williams he hasn't looked back. He first bolted up at Chepstow in what Nick Mordin described as a pattern class time. He then stepped up in class at the Paddy Power meeting at Cheltenham. He could only come 2nd to Grand Crus, but since then that horse of course has bolted up again and is now rated 32lbs higher (158) with the Cleeve hurdle next on its agenda. That race has had many winners come out of it. For Non Stop was given an RPR of 140 for that, but it could be argued given the exploits of the rest of the field it should be a bit higher. Over the same C+D the Neptune in recent years has alternated between very classy renewals (Peddlars, MDH and Nicanor) to the not so (Fiveforthree, Massinis Maguire and No Refuge).
This years looks like it could be falling into the latter category, with no obvious superstar around at the moment. In those 3 renewals the winners all achieved RPRs in to the high 140s. The fact For Non Stop has already achieved an RPR of 140(+) at an early stage in the season over the C+D suggests that his price is way to big. Since then, he was backed into favourite for the Challow Hurdle. He travelled well before tiring late on into 4th. However, it should be noted that Nick Williams has said in the build up to that he missed a vital bit of work, so there is obviously plenty to come from that. Interestingly, Nick Mordin suggested he might be better over 3 miles, so there is every chance he could step up in trip for the Albert Bartlett.
3. Gagewell Flyer - Neptune (40-1 SJ)
An average sort in bumpers for Willie Mullins achieving an RPR of 110 in all 3 starts. Since the beginning of the season he hasn't looked back though with 2 wins. He won nicely first time out over 2 miles, before being stepped up in trip for a grade 2 at Naas last week. This time, he was far more impressive and could have won by much further than the official distance of 4l. The second, Fists of Fury, had won first time out before coming 2nd in a grade 3 next time and the third, Pineau De Re had finished second to Zaidpout in a grade 1 last time. Both suggesting this is a strong bit of form. An uncomplicated front runner, he looks sure to put up a bold performance wherever he turns up next.
4. Sonofvic - Albert Barlett (25-1 365, Tote, 31-1 BF)
Trained by Paul Nicholls, he is a half brother to the stable's Forest Pennant, and a full brother to Aiteen Thirtythree. He's only had one run so far when winning at Chepstow in November. He won very easily and the form has since been franked by the placed horses. Ohio Gold, is a solid sort and was only beaten 3l by 150 rated chaser Ballabriggs this weekend. More importantly, the second Teaforthree, Won well next time out before being beaten only 3l in a grade 2 at Cheltenham in December. Sonofvic hasn't been seen since but that's not surprising as the trainer said after that he needs time between his races and wouldn't be out to around christmas. Both his siblings improved when stepped up to 3 miles, so there is every chance he could do so. However, if he goes to Cheltenham you'd imagine he'd only have one more start which would leave him very inexperience. Also his siblings were both backwards sorts and both have missed Cheltenham Festivals, so there is every chance connections may wish to do the same with him.
5. Oscars Well - Albert Barlett (16-1 freely availbale, 17-1 BF), Neptune (20-1 freely available, 22-1 BF)
Has already achieved an RPR of 148, which as I have already mentioned is enough to win a 'poor' Neptune. Since stepping up in trip he's won 2/2 over hurdles. Winning nicely at Punchestown before stepping up to Grade 1 company at Navan. This time he was even more impressive, scoring in a nice time easily by 8l. Second was Sweet Shock, who won a handicap hurdle of 119 the time before (now 125), suggesting this was a 140+ performance. The third, Fully Funded, beaten 19l had won a Grade 2 hurdle easily last time over C+D, suggesting also Oscars Well is a proper sort. On that form I think he should be near the top of the markets he's priced up in. However, the one worry would be all his form is on softer ground than he is likely to meet at the festival if he takes up an engagement.
6. Mossey Joe - Albert Bartlett (25-1 365, PP, SJ, 21-1 BF)
Put up an astonishing performance at Cork when winning a Grade 3 in mid December. After pulling hard early on he still won by 9l without being anywhere near extended. All the horses he beat were no mugs with 4 winners behind him. Since then the second, Fists of Fury, was beaten by a shorter distance by Gagewell Flyer in a grade 2. Also amazingly, his trainer said he wasn't even fully fit yet. He then ran 16 days later behind Mourad at Leopardstown when stepped up to open class. He once again travelled very well before finding nothing. However, given his trainer said he wasn't fit 16 days previously it's unlikely he would have been then with the cold snap and perhaps his previous race had taken far more out of him than before. If that run is forgiven, then he is one of the best prospects in the novice hurdle devision at the moment. One thing that I particularly like about him is his jumping which is usually foot perfect as he skips over them very quickly. Having won already on good ground in a hunter chase, he is sure to play a big part if he runs at the festival.
http://cheltenhamfestival2011.blogspot.com/
EC
1. Gibb River - Supreme Novices (25/1 VC, SJ)
An above average sort on the flat who was rated 85 at his highest and ran at Royal Ascot at one point. Since then he has been moved to Nicky Henderson. He's won 2 out of 2, with the most impressive performance coming last time at Plumpton under a penalty. They went off a real gallop in the race and many struggled to get into it. By the end of it he had won easily by 7 lengths to Mr Muddle (who was recieving 17lbs). Third was Extremely So (beaten 10l get 7lbs) who had seemed a nice sort when winning first time out at Folkestone at big odds, those 3 pulling a further 15l clear of the field. He was then entered up at the 5 day declarations for the Tolworth last weekend, but was pulled out at the overnight decs, with the stable running Minella Class instead. Minella Class duly bolted up as is now 12s for both the Supreme and the Neptune. Gibb River was presumably pulled out because of the ground, having shown better form on a quicker surface on the flat. It most be a positive that the stable were willing to enter him into the race alongside Minella Class, meaning they probably think him to be of roughly a similar class.
2. For Non Stop - Neptune (89-1 BF), Alber Bartlett (39-1 BF)
Slightly less exposed than Gibb River having already ploughed his trade in handicaps and having already run in a Grade 1. Since joining Nick Williams he hasn't looked back. He first bolted up at Chepstow in what Nick Mordin described as a pattern class time. He then stepped up in class at the Paddy Power meeting at Cheltenham. He could only come 2nd to Grand Crus, but since then that horse of course has bolted up again and is now rated 32lbs higher (158) with the Cleeve hurdle next on its agenda. That race has had many winners come out of it. For Non Stop was given an RPR of 140 for that, but it could be argued given the exploits of the rest of the field it should be a bit higher. Over the same C+D the Neptune in recent years has alternated between very classy renewals (Peddlars, MDH and Nicanor) to the not so (Fiveforthree, Massinis Maguire and No Refuge).
This years looks like it could be falling into the latter category, with no obvious superstar around at the moment. In those 3 renewals the winners all achieved RPRs in to the high 140s. The fact For Non Stop has already achieved an RPR of 140(+) at an early stage in the season over the C+D suggests that his price is way to big. Since then, he was backed into favourite for the Challow Hurdle. He travelled well before tiring late on into 4th. However, it should be noted that Nick Williams has said in the build up to that he missed a vital bit of work, so there is obviously plenty to come from that. Interestingly, Nick Mordin suggested he might be better over 3 miles, so there is every chance he could step up in trip for the Albert Bartlett.
3. Gagewell Flyer - Neptune (40-1 SJ)
An average sort in bumpers for Willie Mullins achieving an RPR of 110 in all 3 starts. Since the beginning of the season he hasn't looked back though with 2 wins. He won nicely first time out over 2 miles, before being stepped up in trip for a grade 2 at Naas last week. This time, he was far more impressive and could have won by much further than the official distance of 4l. The second, Fists of Fury, had won first time out before coming 2nd in a grade 3 next time and the third, Pineau De Re had finished second to Zaidpout in a grade 1 last time. Both suggesting this is a strong bit of form. An uncomplicated front runner, he looks sure to put up a bold performance wherever he turns up next.
4. Sonofvic - Albert Barlett (25-1 365, Tote, 31-1 BF)
Trained by Paul Nicholls, he is a half brother to the stable's Forest Pennant, and a full brother to Aiteen Thirtythree. He's only had one run so far when winning at Chepstow in November. He won very easily and the form has since been franked by the placed horses. Ohio Gold, is a solid sort and was only beaten 3l by 150 rated chaser Ballabriggs this weekend. More importantly, the second Teaforthree, Won well next time out before being beaten only 3l in a grade 2 at Cheltenham in December. Sonofvic hasn't been seen since but that's not surprising as the trainer said after that he needs time between his races and wouldn't be out to around christmas. Both his siblings improved when stepped up to 3 miles, so there is every chance he could do so. However, if he goes to Cheltenham you'd imagine he'd only have one more start which would leave him very inexperience. Also his siblings were both backwards sorts and both have missed Cheltenham Festivals, so there is every chance connections may wish to do the same with him.
5. Oscars Well - Albert Barlett (16-1 freely availbale, 17-1 BF), Neptune (20-1 freely available, 22-1 BF)
Has already achieved an RPR of 148, which as I have already mentioned is enough to win a 'poor' Neptune. Since stepping up in trip he's won 2/2 over hurdles. Winning nicely at Punchestown before stepping up to Grade 1 company at Navan. This time he was even more impressive, scoring in a nice time easily by 8l. Second was Sweet Shock, who won a handicap hurdle of 119 the time before (now 125), suggesting this was a 140+ performance. The third, Fully Funded, beaten 19l had won a Grade 2 hurdle easily last time over C+D, suggesting also Oscars Well is a proper sort. On that form I think he should be near the top of the markets he's priced up in. However, the one worry would be all his form is on softer ground than he is likely to meet at the festival if he takes up an engagement.
6. Mossey Joe - Albert Bartlett (25-1 365, PP, SJ, 21-1 BF)
Put up an astonishing performance at Cork when winning a Grade 3 in mid December. After pulling hard early on he still won by 9l without being anywhere near extended. All the horses he beat were no mugs with 4 winners behind him. Since then the second, Fists of Fury, was beaten by a shorter distance by Gagewell Flyer in a grade 2. Also amazingly, his trainer said he wasn't even fully fit yet. He then ran 16 days later behind Mourad at Leopardstown when stepped up to open class. He once again travelled very well before finding nothing. However, given his trainer said he wasn't fit 16 days previously it's unlikely he would have been then with the cold snap and perhaps his previous race had taken far more out of him than before. If that run is forgiven, then he is one of the best prospects in the novice hurdle devision at the moment. One thing that I particularly like about him is his jumping which is usually foot perfect as he skips over them very quickly. Having won already on good ground in a hunter chase, he is sure to play a big part if he runs at the festival.
http://cheltenhamfestival2011.blogspot.com/
EC
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 35
|
By:
Excellent write up, EC, thanks, and a very good blog. Well worth researching around this time in the season the promising novices that have been a bit neglected or overlooked in relation to their possible targets at the Festival. The ones that will go on better ground are particularly interesting, as the rotten winter so far may have contributed to disguising just how good some of these may turn out to be once we start to get some better ground around the time of the Spring festivals (hopefully).
Which of the six has most caught your imagination? |
|
By:
Gagewell Flyer.....will surely go for the Deloitte (entries close tomorrow !)
|
|
By:
Mossey Joe took my eye massively when winning first time out this year. He was pulling his riders arms out even after a circuit when they came down the home straight for a second time, before pulling clear of 4 previous winners with ease. You can forgive him the run last time as it came soon after his demolition job 16 days previously. It was also his first time off the bridle in his life, so it may have taught him a thing or two. He's won on good easily, but the problem is you have no idea if he'll run at the festival and if he does if it will even be over hurdles - Earlier in the season his trainer said the long term aim was the Irish National!
With regards to a possible festival bet, Oscars Well would be the one that stands out the most. He's looked ultra progressive and achieved an RPR of 148 last time - which has only been bettered by Cue Card and Zaidpour who have achieved a much greater star billing than him so far. After the race the jockey, Robbie Power, also said he hated the tacky ground. If he can do that on ground he hates, then one can only imagine what kind of performance he can put down with more experience on better ground. Being by Oscar gives hope for this as well, as although his progency handle winter ground, they are probably at their best on quicker ground - Big Zeb, Black Jack Ketchum, Snowy Morning etc. Also his trainer, Mrs Harrington, usually brings all her big horses over for Cheltenham (As well as her big guns like Moscow Flyer and Macs Joy, she has also often bought over horses in the past who have been similar or worse novices than Oscar Wells is already, for example Summit Meeting and Horner Woods in the past 2 seasons). At 20-1 he doesn't seem a bad price. What about you out of the list? Or have there been any other to catch your eye so far? |
|
By:
Chablais nicky henderson
|
|
By:
Horse not priced up but really impressed me on his british debut, Called Barbatos, 4 year old made only his 2nd racecourse start in a novice hurdle recently, staying on 5th at 50/1 despite stepping through it at the 2nd last, trainer says will improve for chasing next year but will definately improve for its 1st run over here.
|
|
By:
nicky hendersons got a horse called spirit son who actually beat barbatos in france very easily
|
|
By:
Hidden Cyclone
Big worry is he skips Cheltenham for Aintree. Also probably needs a bit of cut |
|
By:
dare me,hasnt beat much so far but has looked likely to be able to hold his own in better company.
court in motion,beaten by backspin lto but emma's horses havent had much work during the big freeze and i expect better nto.. good call with sonofvic though.....i'd say shot from the hip as well but i expect him to be some chaser so im awaiting next year already for him ;) great work ec |
|
By:
sorry forgot prince of pirates.....neptune player imo
|
|
By:
Yes, Prince of Pirates certainly worth a second look.
Hobbs has been very complimentary about Dare Me and the horse looks a strong galloper who ought to be able to hold his own in better company than he has faced so far over hurdles. Fast pace and better ground should suit. Need to see some improvement in his hurdling, but that may come with a faster pace. Possibly the BB would suit more than the Supreme Novices. Dunraven Storm is another one from the same stable that may be getting a bit overlooked. Appeared to have been sent out too soon for his last race where he faded away on the run-in. Before that he was the only one to give Cue Card any kind of a race when beaten by that one 8 lengths. Dunraven Storm might have got closer had he not blundered at the second last, though clearly Cue Card has the upper hand over him. Dunraven Storm ran very well earlier in the season to beat the very smart Recession Proof, with that one subsequently winning its next two races very well. Bigger field, better ground could see Dunraven Storm confirm his early promise at one of the spring festivals. Court in Motion, I understand, is being aimed at the Albert Bartlett. Very nice horse. Trainer prefers to run the horse on soft, so would be hoping there is some rain about for the end of the festival week. Kilcrea Kim is another that could be very interesting if aimed at the Albert Bartlett (not sure what the plans are for this one). His sire is Snurge. The progeny tend to be very consistent and often versatile ground and trip wise. We are seeing that with Kilcrea Kim. He has won on ground ranging from good to heavy, at both sharp and galloping tracks. He showed some speed in beating Drill Sergeant (104 top rated on the flat) at Bangor on good ground in what amounted to a sprint finish over a distance that may prove on the short side for Kilcrea Kim. He showed his stamina in winning on heavy ground at Uttoxeter, beating My Boy Paddy who went on to win next time out. Kilcrea Kim has run in two open handicaps since, winning at Ffos Las and finishing fifth in a much hotter race won by Ashkazar at Cheltenham on New Year's Day. The Cheltenham race was his first try at 24f. He saw the trip out well enough given the high quality of the older horses that filled the places in front of him and the comparatively brisk pace they went. He also seemed to handle the undulations well, making up some ground coming down the hill towards the finish. Chatreux finished narrowly ahead of him carrying the same weight and that one was ninth in the Albert Barlett last season on ground that wouldn't have suited. The softer ground for his last race was much more to Chatreux's liking. Gwanako in fourth and Junior in second, both have top hurdles ratings in the mid-140s and were running off similar weights to Kilcrea Kim. On that evidence, it is probably not unreasonable to think Kilcrea Kim is close now to being able to run to a mark in the low 140s. Last year's winner of the Albert Bartlett came into the race off an official mark of 142. The experience of racing in a competitive, big field handicap against good quality older horses should hold him in good stead when returned to novice company. It is also a plus that the horse has had four runs earlier in the season, before the weather interruptions that have denied other novices the opportunity to gain valuable experience on the race track. For the most part, Kilcrea Kim has jumped well and showed a willing attitude. He is not going to be a superstar, but he would be a pretty solid one to consider for each way purposes if taking up the engagement in the 3 miler at the festival. Spanish Treasure is one that may be creeping under the radar, from a less fashionable stable. He beat a couple of lesser lights from the Henderson and PN stables on soft at Hereford, making up ground well and digging deep to hold off challenges. They may be bringing him on slowly, so not necessarily one to consider for the Cheltenham festival. Endless Intrigue may be worth a second look. He ran well enough behind Shot From The Hip on debut on unsuitable ground. Top rated 95 on the flat, he should be capable of a much better showing on spring ground. His second to Cousin Vinny in the Punchestown festival bumper two seasons ago was a fair indication of his promise. Hidden Universe is another very talented horse who I am looking forward to seeing on better ground later in the season, after he made a sound enough debut over hurdles recently. |
|
By:
Nice work Aka, Spanish Treasure just missed out on my list.
|
|
By:
CHABLAIS
|
|
By:
BALLYHAUNIS
 Mullins said : "I think quite a bit of him and I think he'll make a nice novice for the winter. He has the option of going back on the flat for the Cesarewitch or we'll find a nice novice hurdle for him. Walsh said: "He had plenty of class on the flat. He jumped super most of the way and he'll go novice hurdling now. We've always thought quite a bit of him at home." |
|
By:
Bally is out tommorow at Naas isnt he?
|
|
By:
Yes he is Mr Eboue, against couple of decent sorts.
|
|
By:
against couple of decent sorts ???
|
|
By:
Chablais in to 14s for the Neptune good effort first time out.
|
|
By:
Well thats got the thread off to a good start
 |
|
By:
One to look out for is Recession Proof from the John Quinn yard.After beating trees at carlisle on his hurdling debut he improved 20lbs but was outsprinted by Dungarven Storm at level weights (now 150)at ascot in a slow run class3 (Organisateur now 154,behind) and given 134 by the handicapper. We took him to Lingfield for a third run to get him qualified for the Ladbroke handicap but it was heavy at lingfield and over an extra 3 furlongs but he handled it well and won nicely confirming his 134 mark. He had an easy time in a jumpers for bumpers at Southwell at the end of December making all and winning easily and has gone the right way over the Winter.John Quinn's horse weren't right during the summer and he is a lot better now than when beaten at Ascot. He will be in the Totesport (25/1) on 12th Feb and probably Supreme Novices.These fast run races should suit him down to the ground and he handles anything from good to heavy.
|
|
By:
Thats a horse I have been watching tbh. I backed it when it ran well behind Dunraven Storm and was quite impressed.
|
|
By:
Anyone know the plan for Rock On Ruby?
|
|
By:
Yes, i like Recession Proof...he hurdles like the wind...think the Organisateur reference is a red herring, though....that horse was turning out for second time in 4 days and i'd be far from certain he gave his running....in fact he cant have, or it would make Dunraven Storm a leading Champion Hurdle fancy!
|
|
By:
pretty sure rock on ruby is going for the neptune sinndar001 (and with a great chance imo)
|
|
By:
ttt
|
|
By:
post of the week
|
|
By:
Nice work PMT and congrats on today. Sonofvic out tomorrow at Ascot from my original list.
If only I'd taken my advice and had some of the 20s available on Oscars Well. Though managed to get some 7s last weekend - the one they all definitely have to beat. |
|
By:
Good work with Oscars Well, EC. With pmt's contribution as well, this thread is throwing up some winners already. Need to keep the thread near the top and hope for some more contributions also.
|
|
By:
good write ups extreme,aka ,pmt ect,some very good winners at good prices only recentley found this thread so missed backing some of them , but will have a close look at sonofavic tommorow ,keep up the good work lads its much apprieciated
|
|
By:
Posters of the like on this thread make the forum worth reading!great write ups galore extra thumbs up to ptm fantastic work
|
|
By:
Great opening extreme - Non Stop was on radar and you have now convinced me thanks pal , think Coral cup its race maybe.
|
|
By:
I've backed Dare Me to win a descent amount in the 2m 5f race.
Thought they might swerve Cue Card,but much longer odds here for the above race.Was slightly injured but is fine now by all accounts,anyone know his target for the festival? cheers. |
|
By:
Nice performance by SonofVic to take the first at Ascot today.
Takes the list to 4 runners, 4 winners (1/9f, 13/8f, 3/1, 7/1) |
|
By:
Excellent Stuff EC
 |
|
By:
yeah top thread this ,been on a nightmare run of late anything i backed got beat anything i fancied and ......didnt back won typical, anyway backed sonofvic 7/2 today after reading extremes exellemt thread... boom. cofidence back well done all posters keep upthe good work
|
|
By:
Oscars Well (4) , Bobs Worth (6) , So Young (13/2) , Rock On Ruby (13) , First Lieutenant (14) , Minella Class (16) , Day Of A Lifetime (25) , Habbie Simpson (33) , Macville (33) , Our Girl Salley (33) , Prince Of Pirates (33) , Tornado Bob (33) , Zaidpour (33) , Court In Motion (39) , Earlson Gray (44) , Al Ferof (46) , Gagewell Flyer (49) , Aikman (50) , Cavite Beta (50) , Dynaste (50) - Others 50 or more
|