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buddeliea
06 Jan 11 17:54
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Date Joined: 19 Mar 04
| Topic/replies: 15,799 | Blogger: buddeliea's blog
Trainer said today he is ready to run.Would have liked to have run in xmas hurdle next week,but will probably go to Haydock to take on Peddlers Cross.
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Report Paul4 January 6, 2011 6:01 PM GMT
just beat me to  posting :) glad he is, really like this horse, hope he goes champion hurdle
Report Howdi January 6, 2011 6:19 PM GMT
gl beating the cross
Report Paul4 January 6, 2011 6:22 PM GMT
not saying would win it, but would like to see him run in it. anything can happen on the day
Report Brooksielad January 6, 2011 6:22 PM GMT
Interesting, even though the Triumph hasnt really worked out, I still think he's a lovely horse, He has lots of reserve the way he picked up barizian in the Triumph, think henderson is really looking after this one, and might see him as a major player if not now deffo in the future.
Report Paul4 January 6, 2011 6:25 PM GMT
also gave toubab 7lbs and beat him 7 lengths
Report buddeliea January 6, 2011 6:48 PM GMT
A race against one of the main CH horses will certainly tell them something,whatever else its interesting for those that were wondering about the Horse,like me!!
i knew he was being careful with him,he told me at the Open day last Easter he would be,but have no idea how much he thinks he is capable of.Hopefully we will find out soon.
Report Paul4 January 6, 2011 6:52 PM GMT
yeh cant wait to see it run again. still think every horse in champion hurdle market has points to questions their credit, makes it even more open
Report buddeliea January 6, 2011 7:00 PM GMT
indeed they do,not one of them is foolproof,part of what makes it so fascinating,and bl00dy tricky to work out!!

Soldatino could just turn out to be a lively outsider.
Report Paul4 January 6, 2011 7:10 PM GMT
i dont bet big, but use BF to back things i personally think have a chance (in all the races tbf) when they are longer prices, so obv not backed binocular, HF etc, but took 80s on soldatino and 110s on oscar whisky, which i still think could both run :)
Report buddeliea January 6, 2011 7:21 PM GMT
got those 2 as well at big prices so hope you right!!
Report Steeplechasing January 7, 2011 2:14 AM GMT
He's a horse who has every chance of springing a surprise.  Assuming he's fit and well, he is probably very good value, although I'm becoming steadily convinced Hurricane Fly is the real deal.
Report brigust1 January 7, 2011 8:22 AM GMT
My worry about Hurricane Fly is that Solwhit was beaten miles in the CH last year and I'm not sure HF is that much better than Solwhit. Is he 20+ lengths better than Solwhit? I'm not so sure.
And, of course, that is assuming last year's CH form is the best in the race.
Report alexmillwall January 7, 2011 9:31 AM GMT
solwhit wasnt right and hasnt been since.

Gutted i took so much of soldatino in the 30s last year.. taken loads around 80 too to get a decent average, aslong as he isnt more than 4length sbehind peddlers his price will shorten to mid 20s
Report CVByrne January 7, 2011 11:58 AM GMT
5yo always find one  better. Katchit won a terrible renewal and sizing got injured in the race too. I will oppose 5yo every time. Even binocular found punjabi too good.

In solwhit, he was sick before the champion so you cannot use his run there as a form line. Use Medermit, he was a consistent performer last term and ran at punchestown after cheltenham.
Report R Carver January 7, 2011 12:14 PM GMT
Cannot have Soldatino either & agree with CVB about the 5yr/o record (actually think Binocular would have won but for his interrupted prep).
Report CVByrne January 7, 2011 12:41 PM GMT
Yeah but Punjabi and Celestial Halo are hardly top class hurdlers, especially given the crop around now.
Report buddeliea January 7, 2011 12:48 PM GMT
Dont think anyone is saying that Soldatino has a big chance in the CH,but it is possible his current price is too big.A good run against peddlers Cross sees those odds vanish,thats for sure.And who knows what level he will be at this year??
Report CVByrne January 7, 2011 1:07 PM GMT
Yeah but there are so many horses this year in the champion. We have to rule some of them out. No 5yo   will win a champion hurdle on his fifth start. especially the winner of a rubbish triumph.

I'm just ruling him out now.
Report Paul4 January 7, 2011 1:16 PM GMT
fair enough. i just think of last years winners and how many of the top few in the markets won? maybe worse year than most (i dont know, just guessing) but we'll always be siding more with the favourites, otherwise they wouldnt be favourites, but cant see them winning all the big races
Report alexmillwall January 7, 2011 1:17 PM GMT
soldatino was a class above everything else, while still a baby, after only just moving over to NH... at current odds hes value.
Report CVByrne January 7, 2011 1:22 PM GMT
Obviously not all favs will win. I think I only fancy one fav at this stage Hurricane Fly, but I'm loaded up to the eyeballs on him at 12, 10 & 8/1. Wouldn't touch him at 4's.

Opposing Ghizao and Time For Rupert.
Report Paul4 January 7, 2011 1:28 PM GMT
i can see hurricane fly, master minded, ghizao, cue card, time for rupert and imperial commander being beaten (only my opinion of course) which is what makes it so amazing.... just hope they're beaten by horses i've taken at big prices! :)
Report alexmillwall January 7, 2011 1:31 PM GMT
pretty much the same although i would like MM to win..
Report Paul4 January 7, 2011 1:34 PM GMT
i like big zeb and have in my ten to follow so prefer that to win. like woolcombe folly but took price on ryanair as thought would go further, then ran a blinder at cheltenham :( the way soldatino beat toubab gives him a decent claim imo just needs to run with credit in champion trial
Report R Carver January 7, 2011 1:45 PM GMT
CVB - Yeah but Punjabi and Celestial Halo are hardly top class hurdlers, especially given the crop around now.

I agree, a 5 yr/o winning that renewal would be different to one winning this renewal which appears far stronger.
Report Alvarado January 7, 2011 3:02 PM GMT
COULD BE ANYTHING JUST LOOK WHAT HE DONE TO TOUBAB LAST SEASON
Report Albion Dan January 7, 2011 3:07 PM GMT
Walkon also running in this trial, so his odds will plummet if he goes close too.
Report CVByrne January 7, 2011 3:17 PM GMT
Walkon is going chasing next year because he was late back this year. I wouldn't expect too much this season over hurdles.

Also Alvardo, who cares what he did to toubab, toubab is a novice. We're  talking about the champion hurdle here.
Report buddeliea January 7, 2011 5:28 PM GMT
Personally i aint ruling anything out in January that has potential or i have been impressed with,too early imo,especially with horses that i have no idea what they are like this season.By mid Feb i will know,but not yet.
Report Liam23uk January 13, 2011 6:57 PM GMT
For a £3 bet does any think at 70/1 is good value still if he runs well next week against Pedlers Cross.
Report Paul4 January 13, 2011 8:01 PM GMT
i do, not that it's worth much
Report buddeliea January 13, 2011 8:10 PM GMT
if he runs well agaist PC he will be at least half that price
Report Liam23uk January 13, 2011 8:11 PM GMT
I didn't wana put any more on until he runs.
Report abbott January 13, 2011 8:19 PM GMT
I wonder if he may just have a blow and go for a handicap at the festival of 148???
Report Gashboy13 January 13, 2011 8:41 PM GMT
I smashed Soldatino up for the Triumph last year. However, that race just has not worked out at all. Ho could've improved further, but he is going to seriously need to. I don't think I'd be backing him off 148 until he proves he is capable, but then he wouldn't be 148 anymore would he ;)
Report Steeplechasing January 13, 2011 10:06 PM GMT
I smashed Soldatino up for the Triumph last year. However, that race just has not worked out at all.

Maybe not the greatest Triumph but 2nd, 3rd and 4th have won since, albeit have been beaten since too.  To my eye, Geraghty gave Soldatino an awful lot to do and it says much more than the bare form line suggests that the horse won it. Also, I believe Barizan might well have been soured after some very hard races last season, so wouldn't crab Soldatino too much on that front.

Against him is the fact that it is a very hot race indeed this year but he and Overturn would be the potential shocks for my money
Report CVByrne January 13, 2011 10:10 PM GMT
IF a 5yo binocular found a more experienced horse too good in Punjabi then the hugely inexperienced Soldatino certainly will given how hot this race is.
Report Paul4 January 13, 2011 10:14 PM GMT
also the fact that mille chief would probably have gone off favourite and has since come good, 2nd to that would look decent enough form
Report aka January 13, 2011 11:25 PM GMT
I have been impressed with Soldatino, albeit on the limited evidence we have from his runs so far. Probably a year too soon for the CH and may prove better over further than two miles in due course.

If he runs in the  CH this time, there is at least one circumstance in which I could see him perhaps running well above his likely odds, and that would involve there being an odd pace profile to the race, possibly as a result of the main protagonists engaging with each other a little sooner than ideal. A horse like Overturn, if he is sent off very aggressively from the front (not necessarily the case that he would be raced in that way), could just shake things up enough to take some of the other horses and their jockeys out of their comfort zone, making it potentially harder to judge pace and execute tactics, particularly if the going is also a little hard to gauge for the jockeys. A quieter, less forceful ride for a younger horse like Soldatino that has shown it stays on well, could reap some dividends if the pressure gets a bit too much for some of the shorter price contenders of whom more is expected in relation to the race.

It is an unlikely scenario, I think. However, as we sometimes see in very competitive big field handicaps, where you have a number of horses evenly matched and up for it, you can get some odd developments occurring with the pace and pattern of the race. Occasionally, this allows a stealthy outsider through almost by default. Often the outsider in such a case has managed to remain partly immune from the impact of the hustle and bustle of the race, which some young horses have a knack of being able to do more than many older horses.

Sometimes the biggest turns up occur not in a comparatively weak field of horses, but in a field where there are some very good horses at the front of the market who are evenly matched. The competitiveness of the field in such races can have an unbalancing effect on how the race unfolds.

But that fairly unlikely scenario aside, I would be surprised if Soldatino were sufficiently experienced and physically mature to match it with the older horses this year and I would just wonder if he has quiet enough natural pace to cut it against the likes of HF and Binocular if the ground is anything like decent.
Report alexmillwall January 14, 2011 12:28 PM GMT
Hopefully hes matured after his time off, def think hes got a chance after the way he quickened in the triumph so much better than everything else.
Report buddeliea January 14, 2011 12:33 PM GMT
Cannot be dismissed,none of us know what he is capable of till we see him run in senior company.
Report mintymonster1 January 14, 2011 9:39 PM GMT
Good comment Budd. Backed him antepost over 40-1 and saved my week on last day when went for all 4 days. Never going for all 4 days ever. Prefer going on Tuesday then early train on Wednesday for best three days a man can have while missus is at work
Report eric_morris January 15, 2011 1:58 PM GMT
The way Hendersons are going now this one will push Peddlers all the way.
Report eric_morris January 15, 2011 2:41 PM GMT
The way Hendersons hurdlers are going now, Binocular looking every bit the Champion there, can we expect Soldatino to cause an upset next week against Peddlers Cross?
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