Cheltenham Festival
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21 Dec 10
21:06
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Date Joined:
15 Nov 09
Any views on where Medermit will turn up? I really fancy him for The Arkle
and I've got stuck in around 16s, but worried he may end up in the new 2m4f
race now. With my ante-post track record I expect the latter! ;-)
and I've got stuck in around 16s, but worried he may end up in the new 2m4f
race now. With my ante-post track record I expect the latter! ;-)
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Replies: 35
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I'm in the same boat Pentlands.
This new race is a pain in the a**e. |
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Surely a fast 2m around Cheltenham is tailor made for this horse (jumping aside).
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Being aimed at a 2.5 mile novice chase at Chelt new year's day according to trainer in w/ender. Think they're making a big mistake when the arkle is looking weaker than usual, but it seems connections have different ideas. Likely he'll get outstayed over this trip by the the likes of Reve De Sivola
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Albion Dan Date Joined: 08 Apr 06
Add contact | Send message When: 22 Dec 10 15:28 Surely a fast 2m around Cheltenham is tailor made for this horse (jumping aside).  The only race it would have any chance in (were it eligible ) would be the Bumper. CANNOT JUMP. |
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thanks harvey... il take that as a compliment
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ha panto that's why I added that caveat as I knew many would scoff at his jumping. I personally don't think he's been that bad, only made one mistake lto in what was basically his second chase. you may think his jumping is a problem, but I don't think the trip is.
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The 2m 4f race is best suited to him imo as he doesnt have the turn of pace at the close to be considered an Arkle horse. He runs on at a good pace but takes time to get into top gear. The problem with that over fences is they break up a horses momentum more than hurdles so horses in his mould will always need to be rousted to get up the gears again after a fence regardless of mistakes.
You need horses with a quicker turn of pace after their fences and fluid jumpers in an Arkle or you will be left behind while the quicker accelerating horses go on. Medermit hasnt been a fluid jumper and in his last run though he travelled well it was noticeable how Thornton wanted to get at him well out to assert superiority, he wasnt going to rely on a turn of pace late to win the race ... not what you want in the context of an Arkle. |
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I was deeply unconvinced by its debut over fences - very guessy in places.
I seriously dont think it is a G1 novice chaser - however if it wins at the Festival fair play to you |
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agree with panto,i cant see it winning at fest either
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2m4f race will put less pressure on his dodgy jumping.
Cant see him running in the Arkle and chance he is back over hurdles by the time cheltenham comes around. |
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hmmmm, not the kind of responses I was hoping for but thanks anyway!!
Although I do remember that Tidal Bay couldn't win the Arkle because of its jumping and MWDS was too slow so I'm keeping the faith!! |
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Looked ideal for the 2m 4f novice chase which he is fav for now, had time to get into the race yesterday and not being rushed his jumping seemed to improve with it also.
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yep,looked far happier at the longer distance yesterday,no doubt the new race if he were mine
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I would not lose faith yet Pentlands. Hacked into the straight yesterday and yet Hells Bay won comfortably enough taking the last fence mistake into account. HB form is looking rock solid in this years novice division. It was comparatively a good time yesterday so Medermit definitely ran well, without to my eyes rattling home a la his cracking supreme novice run.
My suspicion is that the new race is initially going to attract more RSA than Arkle types, even more so if TFR scares a few away. Choc would be best placed to comment but maybe Medermit does not stay the 2m5f as strongly as will be required in March. Medermt has good 2m festival hurdle form and his chasing experience in this weather curtailed year includes jumping a clear round in one of the hottest novice races so far, at Cheltenham. If Medermit were mine he would definitely run in the Arkle. |
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umm,i actually thought he got home ok yesterday,just beaten by a better horse
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King said today he is keeping both Options Open.
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I think the Medemit got in some much needed match practice of jumping round cheltenham, but i honestly dont think he quite saw the trip out. I would send him to the arkle as he definitely has the speed and class for the race.
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The trainer is obviously thinking Arkle and looking to play his hand late however Medermit will be unplaced he just doesnt have the finishing pace for 2 miles and should be going for the 2m 4f chase.
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Topweight, yes it was much better from Medermit yesterday, and I think King is right to keep his options open. He may think there could be one or two in the Jewson race which will have copperbottomed stamina and thus see the trip out better. The 3rd horse yesterday, Reve Di Sivola is a rubber stamped stayer though imo so perhaps Medermit just got beaten by the better horse ? That is the way it looked.
If the ground were to come up Soft,officially, for the Arkle, then I think Medermits chances of winning would increase. They would not go quite so quick, and I recall him sluicing through the mud one day at Haydock. Perhaps King will wait and see what the ground is like or just wait and see what the potential opposition is. |
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I would send him for the Arkle myself. Fast run Arkle will be ideal he has the pace and stamina. If they send him for the new race like some people have said you can see something out staying him.
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If you take a look at Medermits passage through the race you would have to say If Medermit had Hells Bay passage he would of won the race yesterday.
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My feeling is that he will have insufficient speed on decent ground over 2.
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buddeliea Joined: 19 Mar 04
Replies: 2269 02 Jan 11 14:11 umm,i actually thought he got home ok yesterday,just beaten by a better horse I made no reference to the horses relative ability. I backed Hells Bay yesterday, nothing clever, just overpriced on the 2nd to TFR. HB is beatable in a finish, and made a mistake at the last. That plus the way Medermit travelled into the straight leads me to believe Medermit does not truly get this trip. Stamina is linked to ability, quality horses get further in grades below their level but the 2m5f race at the festival will likely be run at championship pace. Any stamina issue will be exposed. I would be surprised if Medermit does not run in the Arkle, his best form is all over 2m and it got another little boost today |
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He will be left for dead 2 out in the Arkle. Finian's Rainbow left Hells Bay for dead recently over a shorter trip and there are a few more will have too much speed for Medermit over 2m on fastish ground. Captain Chris will improve for faster ground in the Arkle and is the horse likely to show the most improvement for the conditions. Ghizao looks v good in all aspects and obviously has shown great 2 mile pace also.
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Brooksie,HB was cantering all over them till the last,had he jumped that well he imo would have won pretty easily.
To me Medermit looked much more comfortable at a slower pace which he would get in the longer race,and the Arkle would find his jumping out big time.If connections think he will struggle to stay the longer race,then imo they should skip Chelt.To me he has no chance in an Arkle,but if he stays,which to me he does,he has a fair chance in the longer race. |
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agree totally with the above post
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medermit is too good of a horse to be resigned to the new race.....somehow they have got to find a way to get him to travel and jump like he did the other day back down in trip in the arkle......personally don't think he'll be good enough, but that is beside the point......the golan ways of this world (no dis-respect) can be left to contest the new race!!!
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^ one reason why the new race is a good idea - might give one of the smaller stables better chance of getting a festival winner.
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travelled beautifully the other day 2nd to finnians for me at this stage.
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Eric Hells Bay out stayed Medermit yesterday, he didnt out quicken Medermit. You seem to be implying because Hells Bay beat Medermit this now makes Medermit slow on the basis that Finians Rainbow beat Hells Bay over a trip blatently to short for Hells Bay.
I would much rather be taking 16/1 + about Medermit for the arkle as opposed to 6/1 about Finians Rainbow. Buddeliea he will most likely be the top rated hurdler if he lines up that for me gives him more of a chance than no chance. |
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Thats a fair point Brooksie,but imo he fences better at a slower pace,and the Arkle will bring out his jumping flaws,but thats just my take on him.
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depends on the ground though, if it is Soft ground it would suit him a lot better.
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16's very fair now Pentlands
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Thanks SBS, currently going over the 'do I lay off dilema'.
Not used to it, mine usually drift sharply after an ante post bet! |
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Injuries aside, I see no need to lay off just yet, wait until FR runs on Saturday. Even if FR super impressive hard to see Medermit drifting out too much, if FR does not win Medermit will be shorter.
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