Cheltenham Festival
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Ive never really looked to much at cheltenham in the past but i know someone who does.
Last year he gave me Cue Card 80/1 on betfair, Imperial Commander at 10s fortnight prior to race.
i would like your opinions on a horse hes telling me to pile into ew for the 2011 Gold Cup, now i should trust him as he did the same thing about 4 years a go with a horse called Turpin Green which was a massive 40/1 to place then 30s then 20s leading closer to race
this tip for next year is Tidal Bay, now he is adamant that tiday bay is gonna be the best 3m2f chasers around come march when they put blinkers on the horse, hes made several arguments
which i cant recollect is how he makes a case
Last year he gave me Cue Card 80/1 on betfair, Imperial Commander at 10s fortnight prior to race.
i would like your opinions on a horse hes telling me to pile into ew for the 2011 Gold Cup, now i should trust him as he did the same thing about 4 years a go with a horse called Turpin Green which was a massive 40/1 to place then 30s then 20s leading closer to race
this tip for next year is Tidal Bay, now he is adamant that tiday bay is gonna be the best 3m2f chasers around come march when they put blinkers on the horse, hes made several arguments
which i cant recollect is how he makes a case
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Replies: 54
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does anyone think he is completley off the hook here with tidal, and could you tell me why?
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if he fancies it and dosent get himself too far back early on which he tends to do now purely on natural ability definetly got a good chance
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Tidal bay has the ability but he's mercurial. So he could run a stinker or a blinder. But at the prices on offer I wouldn't be advising against it. So good luck, he's worth a shot on his natural ability and that betfair run alone.
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Has the raw ability to do it. It could prove to be an open renewal. Denman and Kauto might be feeling their age a bit, Weapons Amnesty doesn't run, Diamond Harry doesn't like Chelts. The likes of Long Run, Punchestowns and What a friend still have much to prove. I can certainly see why Willie Mullins might be tempted to run Mikal De Higenet and I'd be quite interested if he did, otherwise I'd be sticking with Imperial Commander myself but certainly wouldn't put anyone off a speculative punt on Tidal bay who could have a right crack at it if he's in the mood
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He would have a better chance if they took out all the fences.
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its definately less ludicrous than midnight chase. he needs to travel well and have softish ground. i dont thinkdiamond harry dislikes chelters, its just that as a novice, both hurdling and chasing, races were easily won and so he raced a lot. cheltenham comes at the end of the season when harry is at his worst but will be fresh this year. if the big three dont run to their official rating, there are plenty of horses capable of challenging such as last years rsa runners
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I think I have more chance of riding the winner than this winning the CGC. Anyone who reads Haydock literally needs their head testing. One of the rides of the season IMO, that is all.
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few more strides he would of won at haydock
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Imperial Commander was dossing about in front imo, and Tidal Bay was severely flattered.
TB has never gone on to deliver the promise he showed in his novice season, and i'll be amazed if he comes close to winning a Gold Cup Can't exactly put anybody off the price though! |
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paddy was hardly tearing strips out of ic was he alvo
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he wins the Gold Cup be the most bizzare winner for some time.
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As i said Alvarado - Anyone who reads Haydock literally needs their head testing.
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IC also got injured in the race too.
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should run in whurdle,but this time without running in the cleeve before.Maybe take in a chase somewhere just after xmas,then straight to chelt.horse needs a bit of kidding along,he dont like fences,so will appreciate back over hurdles.
psycholigical stuff with this one,just might get the best out of him then,as he definitely has the talent if he decides to show it. |
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Would consider a punt in the Grand National on this one, but not the Gold Cup.
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Mon Mome came 3rd this year at huge odds. If something were to happen to one of the big 3, then an outsider could easily take a place again.
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and tidal bay would be at least 3 stone better than mon mome
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dont think so. wont finish in front of punchestowns/diamond harry/burton port
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Irrelevant alvarado. MM certainly isn't better than the likes of Carruthers and Cooldine over 3 miles, but that's the price you pay for trying to go with the likes of IC, Denman and Kauto around Cheltenham.
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exactly the way tidal bay runs the gold cup is perfect for him off a strong gallop id be amazed if he wasant placed .one thing is for sure imperial com wont beat him ever again
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Thanks for all the comments,
ive posted below some of the point raised in some small snippits that can give an insight to his opinions. its profile is absolutely spot on,it was 2nd beaten 1/4 lth to pangbournr in a 2 mile 1 f g2 hurdle at tghe aintree meeting,it was beaten a neck in the 2m 5f ballymore hurdle at chel 07,it won the arkel in 08 by 13 lths in 08,it was 2nd beaten 10 lths by master minded in the 08 tingle creek,staying on,it was 4th staying o strongly(jockey wasnt trying,unreal ride)in the ryanair chase 09 at chel to imperial commander,it was 2nd staying on to monets garden beaten 2 1/2 lths over 2 m4f,it slaughtered time for rupert,in the g2 cleeve hurdle(the 2nd was beaten 3 1/2 lths by big bucks in the styaersthis year),it was recently 2nd staying on like a train over 3 miles to imperial commander,now if thats not a profile of speed ,stamina and class,i dont know what is! "the horse that wins the top graded races is the one that shows the best form that season,old form means zill,and i think interpreting that haydock race ,that tidal is the best horse weve seen this season! "imperial beats denamn in last years gold cup by 7 lths,another 2 furlongs and tidal would have beaten imperial by 10,that makes him the best horse around in my book! " these quotes aside, he has made me look at the way the the trainer and connections have campaigned the horse since the obvious apparant competition of Big Bucks in the world hurdle. Whilst it doesn't have the obvious profile of being a plausable contender for the gold cup "pre haydock" , there are snippets of form that show it to be really high class, i backed it in the cleeve last year and i swear i called it the winner a mile out because of its scope. Now my initial thoughts were that Tidal wouldn't be able to travel around that final corner in next years GC.. and the ability to be focussed on keeping hold of the bit and giving its all....but after some thought ive realised that i dont really have any justified reasoning in believing that, i think ive just been conditioned by the way that the trainer has had to campaign the horse, now the horse is 9yo it could be the year that the trainer has realised its got everything needed to have a chance if trained for the gold cup. well, if he doesnt show this year then i will will have more on for next year! I'm sold on him being a definte GOLD CUP contender before he retires. good luck everyone , great to read your opinions, appreciated |
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You do realise I have already told you Imperial Commander got injured in the Betfair Chase? So a horse in pain was being eased down at the line with the race well won at that stage when Tidal Bay came storming along. Imperial Commander has missed the King George because if the injury.
If Tidal Bay beat IC in a Gold Cup on merit, I'll give up the game. Seriously. |
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Firstly CV , IF he did get a cut the jockey wouldnt have known about it whilst in the middle of the race.
He was NOT pulling up "a horse in pain" , thats simply misleading and just a plain lie. sorry to be so blunt but it is. 2 extra points on your comments 1. look at the race again ...In your opinion then ..when do you think paddy brennan realsed the horse was in pain?, 2 metres from the winning post? because thats what it is ! 2. Paddy Brennans comments on the Sunday at aintree watching over the replay, i quote" I dropped my hands at the the end which im a little annoyed with myself for , i wish there was a rule in racing that would stop us doing that" ( now how would those comments tie into your statement then CV Byrne?? didnt hear him saying he pulled up the horse because imperial was wailing about a little cut! you also have to remember that the gold cup is 2f longer than this race at haydock, |
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Ok my comments are misleading a bit, he was in pain as he had a nasty cut, while paddy brennan was easing him down and was critical of himself for doing so given Tidal Bay finished like a train. The two things are seperate events. Do not believe IC was tired, the horse has won a gold cup beating Denman after all, in the betfair the race was totally and utterly won and Tidal Bay is certainly flattered to get that close to IC.
Tidal Bay could well run into a place in the Gold Cup, you never know there is a long list of horses who have done so at big odds. But please don't start making a genuine case for Tidal Bay reversing for with IC in March, he's ten times the price of the Champ for a reason. Say what he is, he looks some e/w value given the price. To which I'd say he may well be. |
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i think paddy eased him down because he thought he was clear of everthing else
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Well on that run he will reverse the form over 2 furlongs longer.
Know what you mean though. I've not come on here to make a case for it ...ive posted this topic to get opinions on a horse that i think raises a lot of questions, the more i look at how Howard Johnsons has campaigned the horse in the last 3 years just fasinates me. Im trying to see if anyone agrees with me on why it wouldnt be such a surprise as we would initially think on why it would be to run a massive race ...even ignoring that Haydock run! i mean imagining myself at the end of the race in march justifying a good run, and with Tidal i seriously can, even woithout Haydock run, at the end of the day he won the arkle by 13 lenghts , cheltenham form I take the Gold Cup very seriously CV BYRNE as do the syndicate i know who analyze the runners in late december, we have had several placed horses including horses like mon mome, sir rembrant (which should have won), hedgehunter, and Turpin Green, no winners yet just couldnt get these favs beat. |
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RozelKid, TB has never finished worse than 5th in 15 steeplechases and, despite his sometimes appalling jumping, has never failed to finish any race. High priced horses placed in the GC are a reasonably regular occurrence and, place only, it is probably not the the worst bet you could have.
Having said that, if you trust and follow a 'tipster' who claims the jockey wasn't trying in the Ryanair, then you will find yourself in the poorhouse before the thaw. |
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ok schasing,
i think hes saying that with a pinch of salt, you have to watch last years ryanair to get where hes coming from ( not about not trying but not giving the horse the chance to win |
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he has major problems jumping fences,gets himself out of the race cos of that,and his class gets himself going again too late.he is an enigma,just look at his cleeve run to that of his WH run,just no reason except the horse himself.
i firmly believe to get the best out of him and the best chance of Chelt glory,the trainer has to get him in the same frame of mind and form that he was in on Cleeve day this year.Not really sure how he does that,but thats his job,and if he can achieve that he could give Big Bucks a real good run,but not imo IC,Kauto and Denman.Yes he could just run into a place,but unlikely given the strength of those 3 just mentioned,and surely better to have a fair chance of glory elsewhere,cos believe me he could upset BB if right on the day. |
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All his form shows him running on like a train so i think the gold cup trip round cheltenham is what he wants. Biggest downfall of tidal bays is the trainer.
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IMO he must have soft or Heavy ground nowdays, there could still be something hurting him that is yet undetected and would be interesting for a place at big odds if it did come up a mudbath and they did go off a few strides too quickly in the conditions.
He's certainly a horse to back under those conditions and easily opposable when he doesnt and is a shorter price. |
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"All his form shows him running on like a train"
Over a few different trips. I think even in the national he'd probably stay on from the last to take 3rd or 4th. Not a trip issue but an attitude problem imo. |
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Also just add that in a lot of his races he seems to drop himself out so badly either due to jumping or acting like a dog, and then runs through beaten horses that have been putting it up to the class horses in the race. He clearly has ability, but I do think he has been flattered in a lot of his races.
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i actually think Tidal is a machine, the penny has just dropped with me .
Jeez, the Trainer has been playing us all within the last couple of seasons i think, he's got to the bottom of this horse and i think its going to piss the Gold Cup. Thats it from me Good Luck! |
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No offence but that last statement is completely bonkers.
Still though good luck with your bet., |
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don't think the horse is ungenuine - think something's hurting him which is why he's better with give in the ground and why he runs on at the end when he's completely warmed up.
Just a theory, no evidence whatsoever!  |
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He was running on like a train in the cleeve and was ahead of everything else. He battered time for rupert, then in the world hurdle Tidal Bay didn't show. Its a shame because on a form line with Time for Rupert Tidal Bay should of been there.
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He's just a nut job like Twist Magic (rip mate) and many other horses are. You have to persist with them because they have top class talent and one day they will decide, sure I'll have a go today. Other days they just couldn't be bothered. Twisty's 2nd Tingle was awesome, he was top class and could have served it up to the Mighty Moscow that day.
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ive done him and think he has a squeak in a national too!
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