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Cheltenham Festival
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These 296 comments are related to the topic:
Champion BUMPER ???
Champion BUMPER ???
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Ok smartar*e unraced over 2 miles under rules. The only other piece fo bumper form worth considering is that of Ericht, apart from the all the form in the race is terrible, I haven't backed him based on his form though. Bumper horses rarely quicken up in the way he did. I concede Sire de Grugy pulled ridiculously hard and yes he has beaten nothing, but most of the time bumper form is entirely useless as a guide anyway.
For example lets take the last 4 winners of the Bumper... Cue Card - Various horses came out of his first race, including the 2nd, 3rd and 4th and won next time Dunguib - Was beaten first time out, but the 1st race he won, nothing at all in the race won next time out. Cousin Vinny - Nothing came out of his first win and won next time out. Cork All Star - 2nd won next time out, bar that nothing. So I would almost completely disregard the form and back the horse in the bumper who you believe has the temperament and ability to win the race. And without question Knight Pass has demonstrated not only clear ability, yet a professional and straightforward temperament to go with it. |
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Knight Pass - BEAST!
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The bumper is all chinese whispers and I always get sucked in
 . There was massive stable confidence in Dunguib and CCard.Knight Pass is one of the best the trainer has seen and he used to be with Nicholson.... all bets are down both here and over the water so if they is any positive info it is an indicator.... i.e. there is no reason to suppress any good news now. |
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Dunguib beat a filed of last time out winners before his run over here.
There is not one horse from KP's bumper runs that have franked the form. Sire De Grughy has been running over hurdles. |
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It will be interesting to see which runner starts fav.
The highest price in the eighteen years of the Champion bumper was 4/1. The previous two years have seen substantive drops in price for Rite of Passage and Shot From The Hip. Beware though, because only three favs have won this race. Those three had something in common but so did two losers. The fact that Knights Pass has something in common with 13 losing favs is enough to put me off. So if it does start fav, I'll be laying it. |
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lol nuts. please see post further down! BUMPER FORM IS (mostly) IRRELEVANT. I can see the worth of stats, but they can lead you away from the most obvious sometimes.
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Each to his own way.
We are all right - until the result. Stats are useful, but I agree, not the end all. |
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Here are the ratings for the champ bumper. Obviously some won't get in at the bottom.
Ericht 133 Raise The Beat 129 Bygones In Brid 128 Knight Pass 128 Persian Snow 127 Double Double 123 Go All The Way 123 Aupcharlie 122 Cheltenian 122 Cinders And Ashes 121 Divine Rhapsody 121 Lord Gayle 120 Star Neuville 120 Dark Glacier 119 Twentyfourcarat 119 Dynamic Approach 118 Knockalongi 118 Mount Benbulben 118 Destroyer Deployed 117 Oscar Magic 117 Saint Luke 117 The Tracey Shuffle 116 Master Murphy 115 Maytide 114 Cousin Khee 113 (14) Fleix Younger 113 (14) Tusa Eire 113 (14) Allure Of Illusion 112 (12) Broadbackbob 112 (12) What A Warrior 111 (8) Way To Finish 111 (8) Rocks Rule 111 (8) Triptico 111 (8) Grabtheglory 110 (7) Noble Perk 109 (6) Awaywiththegreys 107 (5) Crystal Swing 106 (3) Solaise 106 (3) All For Cash 103 (2) Willow The Rose 95 (1) |
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''BUMPER FORM IS (mostly) IRRELEVANT.''
IYO |
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Like most of the races next week we do not have a lot to go on formwise this year. The top 2 are both English trained and are obvious enough. The Irish are deemed "Not Of" this year but may I suggest a left field selection at 25-1. His name is Divine Rhapsody. Won his only start at Punchestown last April. He was very very green but quickened well at end. The race has worked out well and his trainer PJ Rothwell is top class. Will appreciate good ground (don't water to much Simon) and jockey booking should be of interest.
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2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th all won next time too...
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delius jockey booking is rothwells second choice.
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I'm certain no horse goes into the race with better form in the book than Divine Rhapsody. There is every chance he has improved since last year as he looked gangly and green despite outpacing subsequent winners as has been mentioned.
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Form working out very well for Divine Rhapsody but I'd be concerned about lack of run.
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delisu, did you read the thread ? People have put that up mate and are keen on it. reads the trainers website, pjrothwell.com
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The trainer has had a mare with a pretty sick yard but looks like turning the corner at the right time. Has apparently got a serious gallop so hopefully fitness and the hill will not be a problem. The reason I am curious about the jockey booking is because bumper races are restricted to amatuer's in Ireland but obviously this in not the case in uk. DR remains 20-1 and still think fair value, also feel better ground will help.
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Paul Carberry asked to ride
Confirmed i think??? |
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Yep.
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intereesting jockey booking. didn't he ride Hairy Molly a few years back ?
Donald McCain was saying he really fancied Cinders and Ashes earlier. Every trainer thinks they are winning. |
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If P Carberry is indeed jocked up this is very positive sign. I appreciate he is very much a marmite jockey but his sympathetic style and ice in the veins approach are made for an inexperienced horse. Said jockey is also 40-1 for top honours next week! But please please don't anybody mention Harchibald....oops.
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im on divine rhapsoday at 33/1 nice few quid on think they r keeping him for the race they no they have a good one go on my son get up the hill
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I'm also a big Divine Rhapsody fan. 20/1 is a nice price too.
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Here are the ratings for the champ bumper. Obviously some won't get in at the bottom.
Ericht 133 Raise The Beat 129 Bygones In Brid 128 Knight Pass 128 Persian Snow 127 Double Double 123 Go All The Way 123 Aupcharlie 122 Cheltenian 122 Cinders And Ashes 121 Divine Rhapsody 121 Lord Gayle 120 Star Neuville 120  Dark Glacier 119 Twentyfourcarat 119 Dynamic Approach 118 Knockalongi 118 Mount Benbulben 118 Destroyer Deployed 117 Oscar Magic 117 Saint Luke 117 The Tracey Shuffle 116 Master Murphy 115 Maytide 114 Cousin Khee 113 (14) Fleix Younger 113 (14) Tusa Eire 113 (14) Allure Of Illusion 112 (12) Broadbackbob 112 (12) What A Warrior 111 (8) Way To Finish 111 (8) Rocks Rule 111 (8) Triptico 111 (8) Grabtheglory 110 (7) Noble Perk 109 (6) Awaywiththegreys 107 (5) Crystal Swing 106 (3) Solaise 106 (3) All For Cash 103 (2) Willow The Rose 95 (1) |
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i dont like star neauville. on the day il be layin for a place[:(]
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thats ok reve
 if he loses ill be down 1 ten euro eletronic transaction, wouldnt be putting much money on bumper runners!minefield! |
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tis that no doubt. i dont think il back anyfin. i wonder will we have a cue card this yr?
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yeah had to know isnt it!!i backed the 2nd to cue card in his first bumper and i remember seeing paper tipster had him in as his nap, i was like why would he nap a 5/1 shot unraced bumper horse, i suspect he was on for chelt!! i remember seeing his name at the end of the list on the day thinking'ah theres cue card' of course not giving him a 2nd thought, u just dont know!
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nope. knights pass debut win against sire de grugy looks savage now alri but 7/1... the boat has left long ago. going by the way joe tizzard rode him id say he didnt know what was under him. they always said he was the best bumper horse they had but he lets him have a bit of reign at the top of the hill and he goes so he had to keep some to himself. cant wait for it all to start
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Been very impressed with the way Ericht runs away from the field, think the hill will be ideal for him
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Star Neuville hasnt many supporters here but he beat a pretty decent field when winning at Leopardstown and was backed from 13/2 to 7/2 when the race was abandoned at Newbury . He has also been backed from 33/1 to 11/1 on here for the Bumper and i believe they are trying to get McCoy to ride, so there there must be some confidence about
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Deptford - I agree and is a decent bet for me - just think he is the forgotten horse too as no one really mentioning him - if he was Mullins trained what price then?
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Star Neuville nicked that race and was getting weight. I don't like him at all.
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yep, nicked it. mullins caught asleep
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same weight as the 2nd horse and got 3lb from the 3rd horse, won by 4 lengths and 22lengths respectively, so hardly nicked it
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nicked it at the start by going clear. 2nd horse is the one to take out of it and he isn't going.
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if patrick mullins did to star neauville what his jock did then hed have won by 6 lengths imo. stole a 4 length run on the bend and beaten 2
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"nicked it at the start by going clear"
if he does that again on wednesday , then i will be quids in[;)] |
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http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=521389&r_date=2010-12-28&popup=yes
Not sure 11-11 is the same as 11-4 (+ the 7lb Hayes takes off) he's actually getting a stone. |
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http://horses.sportinglife.com/Arch_Race_Pup/0,13215,412110,00.html
Sportinglife has them level weighted but you are right about the 7lb Hayes takes off i can still dream though |
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Star Neuville did not 'nick it from the start' - he was settled just in behind and then won by quickening aobut 3f out as they approached the home turn - he took about 10 lengths out of the field in less than 1/2 furlong. My worry for him is the ground.
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