Champion BUMPER ???

Dont fancy it at all myself - be very surprised if Raise the beat is nt the best of the irish

Hope your right bjg, id put allures race in the same bracket as raise the beats first win  in down royal, but i feel that RTB stepped up again in class at Naas. divine rhapsody could be the dark horse in the race.

The Cheltenham bumper has been an Irish benefit since its inception, with only last year’s winner, Cue Card and the ex-Irish Liberman, breaking the visitors stranglehold on the race over the past decade. Indeed ,the winner has come from this country on 14 of the 18 occasions the race has been run to date.

Willie Mullins has been responsible for an incredible six winners and is always the man bookies fear in the run up to the festival. Usually at this point each season, punters are busy guessing which is “the one” from amongst the large number of runners the trainer has to choose from. It may be different this time however, as Mullin’s two standout performers, Lovethehigherlaw and Samain look set to miss the race, as owner Michael O’Leary is not a big fan of bumpers. Killarney winner, Allure Of Illusion has been touted as the stables main hope in recent days, and has been backed accordingly.

A quick glance at this years market reveals the unusual sight of two English trained runners heading the list. The best of the Irish are the aforementioned Allure Of Illusion, Shark Hanlon’s Star Of Neuville and the Colm Murphy trained Raise The Beat.

Speaking to Sportsnewsireland on Thursday, Murphy was hopeful of a big run from his inmate: “He hasn’t really been tested at home and he really could be anything. Similar to Zaarito (3rd in 2009 bumper) he doesn’t take a lot of work and we just keep him ticking over at home”.

Owned by the Winning Ways Enigma Syndicate, the son of Beat All was highly regarded before making his debut in a Killarney bumper in May 2009. Having travelled strongly into the straight, the horse dropped right out, disappointing connections who had expected much better. Murphy believes that the race came too soon for the animal and he was given a break straight after.

“We were very disappointed after his debut as he had been showing us plenty. It probably came a bit early for him, and we decided there and then that he needed time to strengthen up, so we left him off for a year”.

A year later, Raise The Beat returned to the racecourse at Down Royal and was the impressive winner of a bumper. Given the summer off, he next appeared in a winners race at Naas over 2m 3f in October, where he showed a smart turn of foot having cruised throughout.

The step up to 2m 3f was never a worry for Murphy and having proved he stays that far, his trainer sees it as an asset with Cheltenham in mind: ” The Naas race just fitted in to our plans at the time, but I always felt he was a stayer and having shown his ability to get further than 2miles I would have no worries about him lasting home at Cheltenham”.

The group who own the horse, the Winning Ways Enigma Syndicate are one of a number of different syndicates put together by Dublin based accountant, Oran Crean. The latter has had horses with Colm Murphy going back a number of years and was one of the original owners of Brave Inca, along with the O’Tierney family. After that horses success in the 2004 Supreme Novices Hurdle, Crean bought another horse, Kimberlite King and has enjoyed plenty of success with him as well. Each new syndicate is named the Winning Ways Syndicate, but with an added designation, Enigma being the one in the case of Raise The Beat.

The ten strong Winning Ways Enigma Syndicate will be cheering loudly a week on Wednesday, as their pride and joy will be battling it out for festival honours and Ireland’s honour as the horses approach the gruelling uphill finish in the Cheltenham bumper.

Agree with the two posters on page 5 that Divine Rhapsody looks a great price at 33's in a weak Bumper year. Meets loads of trends:

Irish trained
5yo
LTO Win
Irish bred
32+ days SLR
Won a bumper with 14+ runners
Won a bumper of 4k value (his was a massive £52k race)

Clearly goes well fresh and in a hotly contested big field. He won by 3 lengths

"Towards rear, progress under 6f out, 3rd before straight, challenged and disputed lead 1 1/2f out, soon led under pressure, wandered about and quickened clear inside final furlong, comfortably"

'Quickened' and 'comfortably' are two good descriptive words for Cheltenham.

The 2nd won a 6k bumper next time out
The 3rd won a 4k bumper next time out
The 4th won a 6k bumper next time out
The 5th won a 5k bumper next time out (and then a 7k)

I think given good ground (possibly even gd/sft) this horse has a great chance and will surely be less than half his current price come the day.

surely though with a profile like his theres a reason hes 33/1. maybe not though, one things for sure hes a massive price. i could see him 10s on the day

Just watched Allure Of Illusions debut on ATR website - scraped home in a poor race. If that was trained by someone other than Mullins and hadn't been tipped up in all the preview evenings it would be an unconsidered 50/1 shot.

I'll be majorly dissapointed if that is the best young future NH prospect in training (which is what the festival bumper invariably should be about)

I remain to be convinced that there's anything special in Ireland for the bumper this year and at present can'r see past the favourite Knight Pass who has not done anything wrong...come the day 9s or 10s might look very big..

A new Winning Ways syndicate is looking for members if you want the chance at owning the next Raise The Beat!!

''Just watched Allure Of Illusions debut on ATR website - scraped home in a poor race.''


did you only watch the last 10 yds? the horse was short of room for much of the straight....would have been clear-cut winner if got out earlier imo

the champion bumper wrecks horses the winner never improves for going jumping

Dato Star
Flordia Pearl
Alexander Banquet
Pizarro
Monsignor

all achieved plenty over hurdles & fences.

Missed That & Total enjoyment both died as Nov hurdlers. MT looked very good.

Dunguib no back number either.

Yep, wrecks horses.
dc.

Does anybody fancy RAISE THE BEAT?

I think it has a decent chance. I remember Zaarito finishing 3rd in the Bumper, it should have won that day.

D.Russell had an awful ride on the horse, squeezed for room on the inner all the way and finished the race quite well but the early stages of the race finished him really.

I am convinced he would have beaten Cousin Vinny if given a decent passage throughout the race.

how many of them showed improved formover hurdles
cue card - ? looking unlikely
dunguib - definetly not
cousin vinny - no
cork all star - no
hairy molly - no
liberman - no

so the last 9 renewls 6 of them went backwards from there bumper form 2 died and ONE  did ok yeah sure sign of a race that dosent wreck horses

Raise the Beat looks decent.

I like the favourite Knight Pass, the trainer (who used to be head lad with Nicholson) says he's one of the best he has ever seen - that'll do for me.

And McCains 4yo Cinders and Ashes is another decent one it seems. I always thought the 4yo's had a decent chance in this with the allowance even before Cue Card.

Could be another Hairy Molly type race though  - they look much of a muchness.

Dunguib has won 5/7 hurdles starts including 2 G1s, and a G1 3rd.

liberman was sh.t, hairy molly was never that good.

CAS wasn't a fluent hurdler, but could win the Foxhunters this yr.

CV couldnt jump.

Cue Card - bit early to righting him off ffs.

^
Don't see how running in the CB ruined any of these??


How many future winners have come out of the last 2 CB's alone??
2010 - 80 runs, 25 wins (13 horses), 20 placed, 35 unplaced
2009 - 134 runs, 42 wins (19 horses), 38 placed, 54 unplaced

cork all star has joint problems

duncan idaho
did you only watch the last 10 yds? the horse was short of room for much of the straight....would have been clear-cut winner if got out earlier imo

No I watched the last 3-4 furlongs (and have just done so again) and stick to my inital view that he just looked very ordinary and he had all the time in the world to quicken away if he was heaps better than the opposition.

i dont know what you're watching, uncle...he only gets thru the gap with 1f to run. Whether he can win Fest Bumper is another matter entirely, mind. Good luck.

It is a funny track so maybe he was just unbalanced and green - but he didn't really take my eye at all and in fact I'd never heard of him until he was tipped up by Ruby the other night. He is pretty well bred though and obviously comes from a yard who know what they're doing so in a very open year it wouldn't surprise me if he went close

Good luck to you as well

lol. Apparently the RSA wrecks horses aswell.

It seems fashionable these day to label a race a horse wrecker.

If there is one race that you would think would ruin horses, it would be  something like the Gold Cup! Horses who place in that have a shocking record of following up, except for the winners.

no idea if hes even running in the bumper but my bet for the champion bumper at this stage (if i backed ante post) would be HIT THE HEADLINES, was v impressed with his 1st run, lets see if he can do it again. runs at newbury.

no joy with HTH but nicky stated it wouldnt be running in the bumper b4 the race today!looked a good bumper all the same and will no doubt provide plent of winners, the champion however is no clearer...to me anyway!

gl

below par run ilwab, looked a very promising type on debut i thought

backed Divine Rhapsody with PP yesterday 33/1 is huge imo,

Knight Pass wins. Give up on the rest.

thats it gashboy,go with the hype

i agree steve, huge price

Just looking at Cheltenham guide
24 max field in the Bumper

Would seem Divine Rhapsody is rated outside the first 24 limit
Gonna be tight if it gets in

Erichts a solid horse. Bygones In Brid is good at a price. Oscar Magic I really like.

why is nobody giving Cinders and Ashes a second thought?

He was beat a short head by, many peoples winner, Keys over 1m6f at Cheltenham on G/S on New Years Day and all the evidence suggests he would cherish the extra 2 furlongs.

Bhudda personally id wonder about any horse that hasnt at least won over 2m, imo this bumper equates to a std winners bumper over 2m 2f or 2m 3f, staying 2m wont win this race for you.

Imsoluckylucky what ratings are you basing divine rhaps exclusion? a link please if you have it. i would have thought that the win in punchestown would rate him high enough to get well in. cheers

'cherish'- love it bhudda

ballaman id have thought that myself. but who knows!

will divine rhapsody get in race as i have a few quid on him
anyone no ?

Not interested in the hype. backed it ages ago. I still think there is nothing that has shown the potential of Knight Pass in the race. The way he quickened up in both his races were astonishing for a unraced animal. I'd be backing him all the way down to 4/1.

Divine still on track for Cheltenham bumper and Paul Carberry will ride him - on Rothwell's facebook.  Nice and being bet....

form seems to be good too!interesting! will back something on the day!

''The way he quickened up in both his races were astonishing for a unraced animal. I'd be backing him all the way down to 4/1.''


i) he wasnt unraced the 2nd time [;)]
ii) would it not be better to have it all on now NRNB at 8s than to keep backing as the price gets less down to 9/2?! Good luck with it

Seriously, the one concern i have about Knight Pass (i backed him back in Jan) is that, aside from Sire de Grugy who pulled like a train to the home turn at Sandown, the form of both races has worked out terribly. He obviously did well to put daylight between himself and the rest given slow pace at Sandown but i'd still have liked the form to have a bit more worth to it. That said, i think Sire De Grugy being in there will mask that fact to the betting public and his price is still likely to contract further.

Knight Pass is owned by M.Demark who won the bumper in 1999 with Monsignor - who went on to win the Sun Alliance. So the confidence behind KP is not to be sneezed at as connections obviously know when they have a good'un on their hands

The comments about Sunday's gallop 'Let's just say he eased clear' against two good yardsticks indicate KP could be a star in the making

So you're willing to put your hard-earned cash on the owner being a good judge? Have you met many big owners? Clueless most of them. The horse may be a Worldbeater but i think he'd want to be beating Greatrex's workhorses on the gallops if he is the next Dunguib/Cue Card

duncan - I'm backing KP due to it's eyecatching style of winning as well as stable confidence. He looks the part as well - a very taking powerful individual. The fact that the owner has won it before with a very good horse is a plus regarding the confidence behind it

One of the horse it 'eased clear' on Sunday went off third fav for the bumper a few years back and the other is in this years Albert Bartlett - ie both Cheltenham horses. To have the trainer say 'Let's just say he eased clear of them' augers well for such an inexperienced horse, yes?

Throw in that this looks an average race in that there is no outstanding form on offer and if stable confidence behind KP is correct - he could be the banker/steamer of the meeting

Persian Snow set to run?

Ok smartar*e unraced over 2 miles under rules. The only other piece fo bumper form worth considering is that of Ericht, apart from the all the form in the race is terrible, I haven't backed him based on his form though. Bumper horses rarely quicken up in the way he did. I concede Sire de Grugy pulled ridiculously hard and yes he has beaten nothing, but most of the time bumper form is entirely useless as a guide anyway.

For example lets take the last 4 winners of the Bumper...

Cue Card - Various horses came out of his first race, including the 2nd, 3rd and 4th and won next time


Dunguib - Was beaten first time out, but the 1st race he won, nothing at all in the race won next time out.

Cousin Vinny - Nothing came out of his first win and won next time out.

Cork All Star - 2nd won next time out, bar that nothing.

So I would almost completely disregard the form and back the horse in the bumper who you believe has the temperament and ability to win the race. And without question Knight Pass has demonstrated not only clear ability, yet a professional and straightforward temperament to go with it.

Knight Pass - BEAST!

The bumper is all chinese whispers and I always get sucked in. There was massive stable confidence in Dunguib and CCard.

Knight Pass is one of the best the trainer has seen and he used to be with Nicholson.... all bets are down both here and over the water so if they is any positive info it is an indicator.... i.e. there is no reason to suppress any good news now.

Dunguib beat a filed of last time out winners before his run over here.

There is not one horse from KP's bumper runs that have franked the form.

Sire De Grughy has been running over hurdles.

It will be interesting to see which runner starts fav.
The highest price in the eighteen years of the Champion bumper was 4/1.
The previous two years have seen substantive drops in price for Rite of Passage and Shot From The Hip.
Beware though, because only three favs have won this race.
Those three had something in common but so did two losers.
The fact that Knights Pass has something in common with 13 losing favs is enough to put me off.
So if it does start fav, I'll be laying it.

lol nuts. please see post further down! BUMPER FORM IS (mostly) IRRELEVANT. I can see the worth of stats, but they can lead you away from the most obvious sometimes.

Each to his own way.
We are all right - until the result.

Stats are useful, but I agree, not the end all.

Here are the ratings for the champ bumper. Obviously some won't get in at the bottom.

Ericht 133
Raise The Beat 129
Bygones In Brid 128
Knight Pass 128
Persian Snow 127
Double Double 123
Go All The Way 123
Aupcharlie 122
Cheltenian 122
Cinders And Ashes 121
Divine Rhapsody 121
Lord Gayle 120
Star Neuville 120
Dark Glacier 119
Twentyfourcarat 119
Dynamic Approach 118
Knockalongi 118
Mount Benbulben 118
Destroyer Deployed 117
Oscar Magic 117
Saint Luke 117
The Tracey Shuffle 116
Master Murphy 115
Maytide 114
Cousin Khee 113 (14)
Fleix Younger 113 (14)
Tusa Eire 113 (14)
Allure Of Illusion 112 (12)
Broadbackbob 112 (12)
What A Warrior 111 (8)
Way To Finish 111 (8)
Rocks Rule 111 (8)
Triptico 111 (8)
Grabtheglory 110 (7)
Noble Perk 109 (6)
Awaywiththegreys 107 (5)
Crystal Swing 106 (3)
Solaise 106 (3)
All For Cash 103 (2)
Willow The Rose 95 (1)

''BUMPER FORM IS (mostly) IRRELEVANT.''


IYO

Like most of the races next week we do not have a lot to go on formwise this year. The top 2 are both English trained and are obvious enough. The Irish are deemed "Not Of" this year but may I suggest a left field selection at 25-1. His name is Divine Rhapsody. Won his only start at Punchestown last April. He was very very green but quickened well at end. The race has worked out well and his trainer PJ Rothwell is top class. Will appreciate good ground (don't water to much Simon) and jockey booking should be of interest.

2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th all won next time too...

delius jockey booking is rothwells second choice.

I'm certain no horse goes into the race with better form in the book than Divine Rhapsody. There is every chance he has improved since last year as he looked gangly and green despite outpacing subsequent winners as has been mentioned.

Form working out very well for Divine Rhapsody but I'd be concerned about lack of run.

delisu, did you read the thread ? People have put that up mate and are keen on it. reads the trainers website, pjrothwell.com

The trainer has had a mare with a pretty sick yard but looks like turning the corner at the right time. Has apparently got a serious gallop so hopefully fitness and the hill will not be a problem. The reason I am curious about the jockey booking is because bumper races are restricted to amatuer's in Ireland but obviously this in not the case in uk. DR remains 20-1 and still think fair value, also feel better ground will help.

Paul Carberry asked to ride

Confirmed i think???

Yep.

intereesting jockey booking. didn't he ride Hairy Molly a few years back ?

Donald McCain was saying he really fancied Cinders and Ashes earlier.

Every trainer thinks they are winning.

If P Carberry is indeed jocked up this is very positive sign. I appreciate he is very much a marmite jockey but his sympathetic style and ice in the veins approach are made for an inexperienced horse. Said jockey is also 40-1 for top honours next week! But please please don't anybody mention Harchibald....oops.

im on divine rhapsoday at 33/1 nice few quid on think they r keeping him for the race they no they have a good one go on my son get up the hill

I'm also a big Divine Rhapsody fan. 20/1 is a nice price too.

Here are the ratings for the champ bumper. Obviously some won't get in at the bottom.

Ericht 133
Raise The Beat 129
Bygones In Brid 128
Knight Pass 128
Persian Snow 127
Double Double 123
Go All The Way 123
Aupcharlie 122
Cheltenian 122
Cinders And Ashes 121
Divine Rhapsody 121
Lord Gayle 120
Star Neuville 120
Dark Glacier 119
Twentyfourcarat 119
Dynamic Approach 118
Knockalongi 118
Mount Benbulben 118
Destroyer Deployed 117
Oscar Magic 117
Saint Luke 117
The Tracey Shuffle 116
Master Murphy 115
Maytide 114
Cousin Khee 113 (14)
Fleix Younger 113 (14)
Tusa Eire 113 (14)
Allure Of Illusion 112 (12)
Broadbackbob 112 (12)
What A Warrior 111 (8)
Way To Finish 111 (8)
Rocks Rule 111 (8)
Triptico 111 (8)
Grabtheglory 110 (7)
Noble Perk 109 (6)
Awaywiththegreys 107 (5)
Crystal Swing 106 (3)
Solaise 106 (3)
All For Cash 103 (2)
Willow The Rose 95 (1)

i dont like star neauville. on the day il be layin for a place[:(]

thats ok reve if he loses ill be down 1 ten euro eletronic transaction, wouldnt be putting much money on bumper runners!minefield!

tis that no doubt. i dont think il back anyfin. i wonder will we have a cue card this yr?

yeah had to know isnt it!!i backed the 2nd to cue card in his first bumper and i remember seeing paper tipster had him in as his nap, i was like why would he nap a 5/1 shot unraced bumper horse, i suspect he was on for chelt!! i remember seeing his name at the end of the list on the day thinking'ah theres cue card' of course not giving him a 2nd thought, u just dont know!

nope. knights pass debut win against sire de grugy looks savage now alri but 7/1... the boat has left long ago. going by the way joe tizzard rode him id say he didnt know what was under him. they always said he was the best bumper horse they had but he lets him have a bit of reign at the top of the hill and he goes so he had to keep some to himself. cant wait for it all to start

Been very impressed with the way Ericht runs away from the field, think the hill will be ideal for him

Star Neuville hasnt many supporters here but he beat a pretty decent field when winning at Leopardstown and was backed from 13/2 to 7/2 when the race was abandoned at Newbury . He has also been backed from 33/1 to 11/1 on here for the Bumper and i believe they are trying to get McCoy to ride, so there there must be some confidence about

Deptford - I agree and is a decent bet for me - just think he is the forgotten horse too as no one really mentioning him - if he was Mullins trained what price then?

Star Neuville nicked that race and was getting weight. I don't like him at all.

yep, nicked it. mullins caught asleep

same weight as the 2nd horse and got 3lb from the 3rd horse, won by 4 lengths and 22lengths respectively, so hardly nicked it

nicked it at the start by going clear. 2nd horse is the one to take out of it and he isn't going.

if patrick mullins did to star neauville what his jock did then hed have won by 6 lengths imo. stole a 4 length run on the bend and beaten 2

"nicked it at the start by going clear"

if he does that again on wednesday , then i will be quids in[;)]

http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=521389&r_date=2010-12-28&popup=yes

Not sure 11-11 is the same as 11-4 (+ the 7lb Hayes takes off) he's actually getting a stone.

http://horses.sportinglife.com/Arch_Race_Pup/0,13215,412110,00.html


Sportinglife has them level weighted
but you are right about the 7lb Hayes takes off
i can still dream though

Star Neuville did not 'nick it from the start' - he was settled just in behind and then won by quickening aobut 3f out as they approached the home turn - he took about 10 lengths out of the field in less than 1/2 furlong. My worry for him is the ground.

yeah exactly he nicked it.

Mc coy does ride star neuville

Bygones In Brid defo goes for the bumper. King thinks he can reverse form with Ericht now he's had some experience under belt.

star neuville,horses who win the champion bumper usually have unblemished records going into the race imo

Not sure about unblemished records, in the last ten years im pretty sure that missed that, hairy Molly, liberman and total enjoyment all experienced defeat before the bumper

As had Dunguib.
SN wins this.

I like Bygones in Brid a lot. Except he is owned by Redknapp who is the biggest crook going.

mccoy told harry that bygones in brid was his best chance of silverware this season

I had a tip for one in the Bumper today-excuse me while i nip and back it and i"ll post it on here within the hour--watch this space!

cheers, ill put a monkey on it!

why do you have to nip to back it use your computer

it's gonna be Tusa Eire,the one that flatters to deceive.IMO

Sorry bout that! I was just making sure i got some of the 40/1 available with billys-The horse i was told is COUSIN KHEE of Hughie Morrissons-Apparantly it came back sick from Cheltenham last time but is working well with a couple of his good flat horses? Make of it what you will--Dont shoot the messenger

Allure of Illusion doesnt get in

Riccki will be FUMING

thats there own fault for running at killarney[smiley:crazy]