yeah im not saying they were totally expecting him to get beat, that would be silly to say as much, but the fact is the horse has nothing to prove, whereas the other two do and would have been trained and ridden accordingly for that race.

If he gets beat in Kempton i'd not make excuses for him either tbh although it is still possible for him to improve again. NJH describe him as a big as a bull after the Newbury run.

*Doesn't

NJH is a rubbish trainer ? LOL.

One performance bud, he is not a horse to follow on every run.

Also Henderson hasn't a clue how fit his horses are. Bobby Dazzler had a go at him on here a few weeks back.

He has trained 5 winners of the Champ Hurdle and has won more races at the festival out of all the trainers who are currently active. So forgive me CVB if i were to trust Hendersons judgement before yours. You make some good points usually CVB, but your comment about a trainer with 3 decades experience in training is something i would expect from some teenage newcomer to the game who knows nothing about racing. I genuinely thought you must have been on the sauce, yet you stand by your comment.

Look, I'm just saying that last season he had an off year. Binocular, Punjabi, Long Run, Punchestowns. He didn't know how to get his team fit.

Bobby Dazzler who owns the gold cup winner has said this and I value his opinion quite a bit.

Before the fighting fifth he said he had binocular fit, after he said he needed it. He  doesn't know where his  horses are at.

I'm saying he is a brilliant trainer but somethings been up this past year. He lost a bit of mojo

For what its worth (probably not a lot!) I was at Newbury and watched NJH and McManus in the enclosure after the fighting fifth and thought they might look a bit disappointed or phillosophical. Not a bit of it; they were laughing and joking and totally relaxed, said it all for me!

Last yr had an off year - i think he is on record as saying it was his best ever season, with a 30% s/r (far higher than Nicholls) through the bulk of the yr...

Ok I retract my comments. I just felt a bit frustrated that he hadn't got a clue how binocular and punjabi were at all last season. I had an ap bet on both for the champion and layed out of binocular after his win over dee ee williams. So to see him win the champion hurdle hurt a bit. Then Bobby made comments that I agreed with to a  degree.

The man is clearly a great trainer and I apologize for my remarks and fully retract them. I was  wrong to say them.

Fair enough CVB, good call. We were going to send you for a random blood test there for a second [;)]

Yeah duffy, that's what I man about him. You can't follow him like you can with Hurricane Fly and have many great days. He's too quirky.

I'll probably back binocular on the day as I think he's the highest threat to my Hurricane fly and Go Native bets.

Can't have the two chasers in the making, Menorah and Peddlers. Also Khyber Kim is held.

Looks like it is not going to be an easy race to call next March, though certainly one to really look forward to. I would still narrowly have Binocular as favourite for this given the standard he set last March.

One thing I keep reflecting on is how Binocular's improvement in the 2010 renewal over his performance in the 2009 race can best be explained. There are three main factors to consider, perhaps. One, he got there in better shape in 2010 (despite the concerns about his well being in the weeks before), whereas the trainer seemed to think an interrupted preparation might have left Binocular a little short of peak fitness for the 2009 renewal.

Second factor would obviously be the ground; it was that bit drier in 2010. Third factor perhaps is the one that gets discussed less often, and that is that the horse was just physically that bit stronger in 2010. I saw him in the parade ring as a juvenile and then I didn't see him again until the 2010 Festival, As you would expect, he had clearly strengthened up considerably in that time, and I suspect a lot of that strengthening occurred in the year prior to his 2010 win in the CH.

I suppose the widespread assumption is that the better ground was by far the most important factor in bringing about Binocular's scintillating performance last March. I wonder if that might not though underplay the contribution made by the horse being that bit more physically mature for the 2010 renewal (and possibly even more mentally mature, as he certainly could be a bit buzzy when he first broke onto the scene). 

It is an important issue because if the ground comes up a little softer than it was last March there will be many who will need to decide whether to stick with Binocular or look for an alternative who might be better suited by the prevailing conditions. My inclination would be to say that if the ground is only slightly softer than it was last March, there is no reason why that should significantly inconvenience Binocular. And I say that because I believe that the horse being physically stronger, and not simply the better ground, was the key to Binocular's outstanding performance in the 2010 renewal.

Binocular has strengthened up well and, in the process, he looks to have become an even better stayer over the stiff two miles than many thought he would be (Mordin's initial verdict on Binocular from a couple of years ago, for example, was that he was a speed horse who might not see out the trip in a fast run CH). The better ground remains important for the horse, I have no doubt, but even on genuine good to soft I think, if in good shape, Binocular could still prove very effective in a high standard, fast run CH given how well he has strengthened up over the last year or so.

While a horse is strengthening up to the extent that Binocular has, I presume it makes it that bit harder for the trainer to keep up with them in terms of fine tuning their training regime and calculating exactly what work they need at home. That should be far less of an issue this season, now Binocular is pretty much fully mature.

Not if you followed HF, I have from his novice days to today. Seen him in the flesh on 4 of his last 5 runs and he won those four. Patient, that I am, but good things come to those who wait. I hope my ap of 12/1 doesn't go the way of my previous two.

His form is 11111311 plenty made following the fly, especially given his sp on his last two runs. Binocular is an expensive horse to follow so far.

Ah i did'nt see that comment mate,fair enough.

Binocular has won 7 races from 11,not exactly a poor return.I dont personally follow him,just back him when the price is suitable.

Me too,but i am open minded enough to think that horses such as Menorah and Peddlers Cross could be capable of winning a CH from what i have seen of them so far.They have improvement to come as well.

True but it's when you get on them Graeme, if you see Hurricane Fly has only lost once in his career over hurdles, while he was beaten on the flat in France. I'd disregard the flat losses, also you'd have to think about how much you'd be backing. I'm going to put more money on when it's a grade 1 as he's sure to be fully fit for that.


Bud I agree, I'm not discouting them from winning it, I just don't fancy them especially at current prices.

Soft ground does not overly concern me for Bino either. He has actually won on it Twice, albeit in lesser company.

A lot is being made of the 'better strength in depth' to this years renwal. Don't forget last years race had the previous CH 1,2,3, the supreme nov 1,2 the Triumph hur winner, the Irish CH winner and the ****/greatwood winner; not a race lacking quality by any standards!

correct chaps. And Kyber Kim is a seriously good yardstick imo.

Aka, yes I agree it is dangerous to underestimate Bino's physical improvement. He ran in his first cheltenham festival as a 4yo, and then placed in the Champion as a 5yo. If he lines up next march he will only be 7yo. If they think a horse could emmulate the great Istabraq then there is no need to put the gun to his head early in the season for the Fighting Fifth. Bino has plenty more time on his side.