Cheltenham Festival
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Theres a thread about Peddlers Cross, Menorah, Cue Card and Silviniaco Conti, so I thought I'd start another on Binocular.
Am I alone in thinking 9/2-5/1 is cracking value for the reigning champion hurdler?
Yes I admit he has been a little inconsistant in the past and was well beaten on his return but surely fitness was an issue at Newbury. Imo he travelled and jumped beautifully until the last where he just blew up and AP went easy on him. The connections have stated all along that there is only one race they care about and that is a repeat Champion hurdle success. NJH is a master at producing horses at their peak for the festival and I thought he was superb last year.
Menorah was very good yesterday and both Cue Card and Silviniaco Conti did their reputations no harm. Peddlers Cross is clearly decent, as can Solwhit and Hurricane Fly be at their best. But for me Binocular is still very much the one to beat in March.
I have backed him at various odds and have him tied up in numerous multiples for the big one but cant help but keep topping up if his price remains so high. Lets hope Go Native or Starluck out-speeds him in the xmas hurdle so I can get even more money on at even bigger odds because I genuinely think he's a different prospect come Cheltenham in march!
Am I alone in thinking 9/2-5/1 is cracking value for the reigning champion hurdler?
Yes I admit he has been a little inconsistant in the past and was well beaten on his return but surely fitness was an issue at Newbury. Imo he travelled and jumped beautifully until the last where he just blew up and AP went easy on him. The connections have stated all along that there is only one race they care about and that is a repeat Champion hurdle success. NJH is a master at producing horses at their peak for the festival and I thought he was superb last year.
Menorah was very good yesterday and both Cue Card and Silviniaco Conti did their reputations no harm. Peddlers Cross is clearly decent, as can Solwhit and Hurricane Fly be at their best. But for me Binocular is still very much the one to beat in March.
I have backed him at various odds and have him tied up in numerous multiples for the big one but cant help but keep topping up if his price remains so high. Lets hope Go Native or Starluck out-speeds him in the xmas hurdle so I can get even more money on at even bigger odds because I genuinely think he's a different prospect come Cheltenham in march!
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im with you woodworm gawnnnnnnnnnnn sonnnn
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Certainly sets a very high standard in terms of how well he won last March off what was a reasonably good time for the race (and he probably could have pulled out a bit more on the day if needed). You might get an even bigger price on Binocular, if the likes of KK, Go Native and Hurricane Fly return in good form after Christmas. He would still just about be my pick (though I have been very impressed by Menorah and there is something very taking about PC too). I might want to look for some cover nearer the time with one or more other bets in the race, in case the ground turns out a fair bit softer than it was last March.
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Once again I think the ground will be the key to this one in March. The closer it is to good and the stronger his chance in my view. If ity is soft he could be vulnerable.
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I agree.
I have never been a fan of bino. I was at newbury that day and i have never seen a hurdler ping a hurdle since the mighty istabraq. AP did not hit the horse once. Fools and their money. |
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Hugely impressive in the big one last year and will be primed for March 15 to the minute. Henderson and McCoy have raved about this horse from day 1 and last March he showed why.
For me not matter what happens in the build up it is just a smoke screen and it's only on March 15 where the real deal will turn up. Binocular will be the horse to beat when the tapes go up for the Champion Hurdle. |
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I'm not alone then; good, I shall keep backing him!
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For all his brilliance last March, I'm still in the doubting camp and I think he's vulnerable, though he is the obvious benchmark. I can't forget how he didn't produce at the previous two Festivals - the excuses were limp and he was beaten fair & square on both occasions.
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Certainly legitimate to question the consistency of the horse across the range of his runs, though of course a first, second and a third placing in three runs at the Festival is still pretty impressive form.
Just how important the ground is to this horse is something backers will need to think hard about, arguably. Hard to think it was more than coincidence that his one really excellent showing at the Festival so far was when getting the best racing ground he has run on at Cheltenham. |
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I backed him immediately after his run this season where he blatantly blew up , imo. At that point in time Korral were a standout 5/1 so I took. Since then they have taken some more support and are now 9/2.
You can still get 5/1 with 3-65 however. |
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Very interested if Go Native turns up at Kempton. If he beats, binocular and Khyber Kim there I will rule that the first three home in the champion are not as good as some people thought.
What other potential decent horses will run at kempton? Starluck obviously. Any others? |
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dont think Go native is going to kempton as he was late back in after his injury.
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I'm not sure how important ground is to Binocular but its usually pretty similar each year give or take. If it comes up soft I'll have an almighty saver on Solwhit who is seriously underestimated by many and could surprise a few on slower ground. I dont think his race last year reflects his ability!
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Hussard - in total agreement. Woodworm, in total agreement. Eternal Optmist - i accept the caveat about the ground.
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Agree about solwhit tbh, its preparation in the three weeks building up to last years champion hurdle was awful.
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Solwhit hasn't got the gears of at least six other rivals but the way the race is usually run, who's to say he'll need them? He's definitely got the ability and often toughness & stamina is more important. Last season's run is easily excused due to his interrupted preparation and like many others in a wide-open race, I couldn't put anyone off him. If there is a question of one of the main protagonists, then for me it's Hurricane Fly - I keep hearing how he'll be really suited to a strong gallop but I have grave doubts about him being equipped for that.
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If it was bottomless i think Solwhit could plug on into a place but think at least KK woudl beat it in those circumstances. Cannot have him in any circumstances.
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This race is sometimes won by the horses that really do have the pace, but the likes of brave inca and hardy eustace won most of theirs races over their careers through guts and determination.
I think solwhit and menorah are the two that fit into that category. Can't wait, its always my favourite race of the season, all be it last year being tarnished by binoculars apparent rising from the dead. |
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Hurricane Fly showed plenty of guts to beat solwhit at punchestown after a 6 month lay off.
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CV - I'm not questioning his hurdling, class, speed, guts or finishing effort but what I do have reservations about is his ability to get the trip AND produce his potent turn of foot off a searching gallop - furthermore, will he even make the line-up? Of the main protagonists, I think he's the weakest link.
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Hurricane flys head carriage just seems like it could really hinder it although i could be wrong as to how much this will harm it.
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Great news to have Hurricane Fly back.
It is hard at this stage to really get a grip on what type of horse he is, other than that he looks more than useful from the style in which he has won his races. Hopefully, he'll have a couple more runs in good open company before next March from which we should be able to glean a bit more about what his strengths and limitations might be. |
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Well he's running over 2m4f tomorrow fto and won over 2m4f as a 4yo in france. So he has plenty of stamina and if he can make go natives turn of foot look slow then he is easily the fastest horse in the race. While he travels like an absolute dream through his races and is so slick over his hurdles. He's won his races in all manners from guts to sheer class, there is nothing to not like about this horse.
I think he is special. If he can stay fit and run tomorrow and in the irish champion before cheltenham he'll be short order in the market I'd say. Top top horse. |
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Fingers crossed hurricane fly is 100% the horse it was before injury then.
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His win at punchestown would have me confident he retains his ability. From my many many watches of the race (you can see us celebrating at the winning post) he traveled like a dream, went 4 horses wide on the bend to go after solwhit, was still hard on the steel and just lack of fitness meant he couldn't put the race to bed. Guts got him up.
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CV - as I've mentioned about Hurricane Fly, I think he's a terrific horse but I have doubts whether he's equipped for the rigours of a Champion Hurdle. I'm aware that he's won over 20f at Auteuil but on bottomless ground they don't go a Cheltenham pace do they? There's at least half a dozen others that look suited by Cheltenham's C&D and a strong pace - they've proved it before and HF hasn't. It's that reason alone I think he's the weakest link because in any normal race, I wouldn't be confident of any of them mastering 'The Fly.' Sometimes when looking for an angle I'll concentrate more on how a race will be run (to suit my selection) rather than figuring out who's the best horse in the race. At this stage it's very difficult to have much confidence in any selection in the CH and I'm flummoxed - I think it's that open you could pick three and not have one in the frame! As for the Leopardstown destruction of Go Native, that was a long time ago and the runner-up's undoubtedly improved though the memory of HF bursting clear after the last is still fresh in my head - I can't remember the last time I saw a horse accelerate as instantly on such ground. Whether he's up to Cheltenham's demands is for me, open to debate.
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Hurricane fly has never raced at cheltenham so there is no way to know if it would every be a problem for him. But given how he has won his last three wins I'd be confident he can handle anything.
Putting 10l on go native after the last at leopardstown. Being boxed in and still managing to scoot clear in heavy ground at punchestown. Traveling like a dream, then going 4 wide to make the ground on solwhit, hard on the steel jumping the last and guts getting him home. three separate styles of victory. He can do anything |
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One of the most interesting things about HF is that he leaves the impression they haven't really go to the bottom of him yet. He has had to battle to some extent to beat Solwhit the last twice, but you still get the sense he has been running pretty much within himself. Those two races perhaps don't quite equate to the rigours of a CH, but he is interesting and an exciting contender for next March.
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HF the one to be most frightened of now imo. Was very good today.
I still like 5's on Bino mind :) |
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The Champion Hurdle is by far my fav. race of the festival and the picture is getting clearer. I think Hurricane Fly will be a serious threat come March if he stays sound. He looks a machine and the run over that bit extra today beating a horse like Solwhit gives the confidence he will stay up the hill. I think Binocular is still the one to beat and I am really excited about these two in March!
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MM - I must disagree about the picture getting clearer. I haven't got a clue who'll win the Champion Hurdle and it's getting even more difficult with every trial! We're still yet to see Khyber Kim, Go Native or Dunguib - how'll it affect the market if one of those bolts home impressively? Is there any news about Rite Of Passage or Casual Conquest? Throw in Soldatino, Overturn and a possible return to two miles for Celestial Halo and it's probably as competitive (with quality too) as it's been in the last three decades! PS - I'm assuming Punjabi's out of the race by the odds available.
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Pretty sure I read that Punjabi is out for the season Harchi.
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Sorry Harchi didn't mean it like that. I just feel that we are getting to see a few of the contenders out now and getting a bit of a picture. I agree Celestial Halo should definitely be running over 2. That is his trip whether good enough or not. I was never that confident he would take to chasing and I think it's a strange decision if they are going to take on their own horse in Big Buck's which looks an impossible task anyway. At the moment I'm not too sure about Soldatino I mean it was a funny Triumph last year what with Barizan going off like a scalded cat and some of the form not stacking up too well. I do think Barizan was a different horse last year mind and Soldatino still surely has a bit more to show as he's still relatively inexperienced. I would be surprised to see Rite of Passage over hurdles now seeing what he did in the summer.
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It is so competitive your better off sticking with the horse that has been there and done it and produced a very high rating in the race. [;)]
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MM - I can't say I'm a massive fan of Soldatino, especially as Barizan has been woeful this season. He was undoubtedly a good horse last season and Tom O'Brien rode them all to sleep - including Geraghty. For the reason that Soldatino was strong enough to be the ONLY real closer on the leader, he may well be much superior to Barizan and could be another capable of finding the improvement to win a trial against established performers. PS - the Weld pair are geldings so I can't see why they don't have a crack
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The Weld pair are not running over sticks this season. CC will be aimed at the Tatterslas in May and ROP will go to Ascot for a repeat. Weld has confirmed this.
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Sintonian - everyone knows that Binocular is the benchmark after last year's performance but I'm not convinced he'll reproduce that. He seems to find excuse after excuse. Obviously, if he does run to his best then he's an odds on shot to win it.
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are we at risk of over doing the excusing of sub standard performances from binocular because we all have in our minds what he came back to do last time in the champion.....bearing in mind that this years looks altogether a much better race than last years.......also i keep coming back to how confident pre race henderson seemed to be before newbury.....i think it is dangerous to simply disregard his defeats because the quick ground and fast pace on the day of the champion will see everything come good.
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Sintonian - thanks for that.....however disappointing.
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not sure which Newmury race you are referring to Duffy but if you mean the recent one NJH was anything but confident.
People are getting confused about the pre-race positives. The positives were all to do with his jumping and movement at home because like we all know he started last season jumping like a fish. Amazed people think it was to do with his fitness tbh. Entirley different. |