a faster pace we,ll see a 10lb better menorah

roll on champion hurdle

Yes I don't see the pace of a champion hurdle making the slightest difference to Menorah now.

What we were concerned about before his race yesterday was whether he would be anywhere near as effective in a smaller field where there was no pace as he seemed to just love a battle and need a test in the Greatwood Hurdle. Now he has simply sprinted away from them off a slow pace ir seems almost perverse to wuestionn wherther he would be as good in a faster run race.

More sensible is the question "what did he beat". The Nicholls horse looked very useful beating Zaynar, but he (Zaynar) seemed to be barking pretty loudly that day. Cue Card is a novice, albeit a pretty high class novice.

However the main form to go on may not be yesterday but his win in the Greatwood Hurdle, when he conceded all that weight to a huge field and battled off Bothy conceding about half a ton. The Racing Post rated Menorah 165 for that run and that was achieved on ground that he disliked and in a race that he was stuck out wide all the way so he is likely to be better than that. the Champion Hurdler, Binocular has run ratings in the 170'as only twice in his substantial career, and seems not entirely trustworthy, looking at his overall record. Peddlar's Cross' best ever effort was rated 163, and you just see him as a high class sitting duck foir Menorah at Cheltenham. Hurricane Fly's best ever effort is 164, not as good as Menorah and he seems unlikely to have the same scope for improvement.

I thought Menorah's Greatwood Hurdle win was top class at the time and of Champion Hurdle winning quality. The class he showed when really quickening without being asked a serious question just confirmed how much he has improved and how much serious class he seems to now have.

Despite the very classy impression he made yesterday, he did beat young pretenders whose merit in the top grade remains questionable, especially given the 4lbs SC was trying to concede the winner.

The relative proximity of Clerk's Choice, as I've mentioned elsewhere, raises further questions.  If yesterday's race is to be considered close to Champion Hurdle class (and 7/2 Menorah suggests a strong general belief that it does), then Clerk's Choice cannot possibly be an 80/1 chance.  Of the first four, he is the only one who not only handles an end-to-end gallop on the track, but relishes it. Given decent ground and a very hot pace, he'd easily be the value, for me, from yesterday's quartet.

What seems to be forgotten is that while Menorah beat some youngsters of unknown potential, Peddlers Cross beat the reigning Champion Hurdler with considerable aplomb at Newbury.  Granted, Binocular might not have been at his best, but, of the two races, which has produced the strongest form?

honestly people banging on about this 4lb he recieved from SC honestly he could of given him 14lb and still thrashed him hes been so good this season and he deserves his place as market leader for the CH

I would say it is a skinny price on whatever measure. It is certainly very short in terms of conventional form analysis. The price is a little more understandable in terms of what a good visual impression Menorah has made in his three winning runs at Cheltenham, and the degree of versatility he has show in winning those races. But even so, the price is too short at this stage in relation to the high standard Binocular and KK set in the renewal last season and in terms of there being some other contenders this year who have yet to show their hand.

I certainly wouldn't advocate ignoring conventional form analysis. But equally how many CH trials in recent years have proved a really good guide to what is likely to happen on the day in the CH? As far as I recall there wasn't a lot in Hardy Eustace's form before Cheltenham that would have marked him out as the most likely winner of the race. Katchit and Sublimity certainly weren't the form picks, and Punjabi definitely wasn't. Brave Inca could look less than impressive in some of his trials. And what about Binocular's form going into the CH last season?

You may need to keep one eye in the form book, but goodness you need the other one looking in the opposite direction entirely if you are going to spot the winner of this race if recent winners are any guide.

Well Katchit had an exceptional record at Cheltenham. He also had to give weight to Osana and was off a short breat from the Fighting Fifth when beaten in the bula.

Punjabi was one of those you had to accept he would have been going for the million bonus if not falling at Kempton and Henderson said he needed the Kingwell to get fit.

Binocular was impossible to pick. I even layed out of my bet on him after his win over Dee Ee Williams.

Sublimity I didn't give a chance at all. Inca was easy enough he was on fire and Hardy's 2nd he was fav and Champ. His first caught me by surprise too.

Yes, it was Hardy Eustace's form in the seasonal trials more than his Cheltenham Festival form I was thinking of, as with Katchit.

Punjabi was an odd one. There was enough in his earlier form that season, I would have thought, to have supported his price in the CH market much better than proved to be the case after falling at Kempton and running poorly in the Kingwell. Still hard to believe he was being matched at 40s and higher on here just before the race.

Hard to believe aka but as I said back then the 44's offerend on here on Monday night were insulting. Anyway one mans loss is anothers gain.

Feels like year on year the 2mile hurdle ranks are getting better and better.

Yes, there were clues to Sublimity. The one you mention, Budd, some of the noises from good sources in Ireland, the horse's quite good flat rating, an understanding of where things were with the horse's fitness and health.

Though, of course, none of those clues could be gleaned from the CH trials that season. It can be a bit of quandary. You can't afford to ignore the trials and need to study the form of those races carefully, but in doing so it perhaps easy (certainly for me) to become too honed in on that type of analysis and in the process miss some clues that are floating around in different spheres altogether.

Detroit City, Sizing Europe, Binocular (in 2009), and arguably Go Native last March(or maybe KK), were the form picks from the seasonal trials in the last four renewals, and not one a winner.

aka Go Native got injured in the champion and so did Sizing Europe in his year. So you can forgive yourself  if you backed either.

Punjabi and Katchit were perfectly goods e/w bets based on their form.

Sublimity was tricky, but could have been a vase made for backing him ew as budd says. Inca and Hardy were simple before that.

I watched the race again a few times. I think Menorah is a strong lay now. Despite the very positive visual impression, he rapped most hurdles with his hind legs, taking a panel out at least once.  He hung on the approach to several hurdles. The last was his cleanest jump.  Also,as the front three battled on the turn in, Menorah was scrubbed along for a few strides before picking up just as the gap came. I think a hot pace could easily find him out.

He's quite lightly made too and might well be muscled out of it if things get rough as they often do.  Finally, his trainer seemed surprised by the turn of foot - not a good sign imo.

I won't doubt him again - he's made me look foolish enough. Steeplechasing - I think strong lay is a bit harsh.....he looks a bona fide contender.

Steeplechasing - I think strong lay is a bit harsh.....he looks a bona fide contender.

He's a bona fide contender alright, but no 7/2 chance, far from it imo, which makes him a strong lay.

Steeplechasing - fair point then, as regards an ante-post proposition but I make a point of remembering when I've been stung - he's a top horse. PS - are you still cutting & pasting?
Alvarado - he dared to disagree with you? You just couldn't resist calling him 'a knob' could you? FWIW, I don't think the ground's an issue with Menorah at all, but 10lb improvement? Who's on the sauce did you say?

Alvarado,
he did rap a couple of hurdles and did indeed knock one right over,so he aint the best jumper you will ever see,although as he showed at the last he also can jump them well.
He is a major player though.

HE DID NOT KNOCK ANY HURDLES WATCH IT BACK AGAIN AND JUST WATCH MENORAH ALL THE WAY ROUND

When someone starts quoting ratings on here with regards a horses FUTURE target under the all important conditions of that target or giving you their hand-timed blah blah I ignore it.

Steeple - your post of 10.00 today. I think you raise some very interesting and worthwhile points to discuss there. I probably still see more points for Menorah than against him at this stage and having reviewed the race on Saturday several times.

I had some small concerns about his hurdling before the Bula and that remains the case now. How do you think he hurdled in the SN and the Aintree races? Those were probably the two quickest run races he has encountered, though he has yet to encounter a really strong end-to-end gallop comparable with that likely in the CH. His highest TS run was at Aintree. Do you think a stronger pace might see his hurdling in a better light, or are we talking about more fundamental problems in hurdling technique here?

You always worry about the lighter frame ones fighting for position and handling the hustle and bustle of a bigger field, though more so in chases possibly where pinching the right take off spot is so important for the jumping. There have been quite a few small ones among the recent CH winners though, including Binocular, Punjabi, and Katchit, all perhaps slightly smaller than Menorah. And the smaller ones often have the advantage of being that bit more nimble and quick footed to either avoid trouble in running or else recover well if momentum is lost through being baulked or finding a gap closed off.

The point about momentarily being scrubbed along (or would it be better described as shaken up, if that is not too fine a distinction) on the turn in, is interesting to analyse I think. Did the other two who were in front at that point just have the benefit of first run there, understandably leaving Menorah slightly outpaced for a few strides as he adjusted to what was happening in front, or do you think the horse might be one who has gears, but perhaps takes a little more time to access those higher gears than is ideal in the context of a fast run CH?

Do you see any comparisons/contrasts between what you describe with Menorah being scrubbed along momentarily on Saturday and PC being shaken up by his jockey coming around the home turn in the Neptune, before eventually finding his stride and powering on strongly up the hill to win that race? Both horses ran on impressively on the run in after getting a wake up call from their respective jockeys.

I thought there was a twinkle in the trainer's eye when he said he didn't think Menorah had such a turn of foot. I maybe wrong about that, but he doesn't wear that hat for nothing, I would say (he keeps plenty under it!)

I like the way Menorah keeps finding a way to win in somewhat contrasting circumstances and would give him some credit for not being significantly outpaced at any stage on a pretty good surface in the SN. I accept the SN wasn't run at the same end-to-end gallop as the CH, but all the same, when the pace picked up in the SN and came closer to the pace they go in the CH, Menorah withstood the test pretty well.

To summarise, the hurdling is a niggling concern for me; the idea that he might be vulnerable to being outpaced I would want to think more about - it warrants serious consideration; the fact he hasn't yet posted a really competitive Grade 1 time, does need factoring into his current price for the CH. He may well have no problem coping with a a really strong end-to-end gallop on the day, but we don't know that at this stage, unlike Binocular and KK who are proven under those conditions.

Marginally, I have a better gut feeling for Menorah than PC at this stage, though I see a great deal to like in both horses.

aka I need form lines with most of the runners to back any favourite in a champion hurdle and I need to be satisfied that the horses he beat were near their best.

So for me, Peddlers Cross has beaten starluck and an unfit binocular.

Menorah has beaten only one horse who will be opposing him again in March.

These two are unbackable at current odds given what they have beaten. You need to always look at things from the perspective of knocking what the horse has beat and then if this proves difficult then you may have the contender on your hands.

I believe it is vital to have form with most of the horses your selection will face especially  if he is short priced. As the race is littered with favs beaten by  horses they are facing for the first time.

As I said last year was an odd one, with the fav getting injured in the race to boot.

Punjabi had every right to beat CH and Binocular as he had no form with them

Katchit to turn around form with Osana given he was back on the old course, off levels and fresh. Sizing may have beaten both though.

Sublimity and Brave Inca to beat Detroit city.

Inca had confirmed himself the best of the irish, England had no good hurdlers.

Hardy was champ and had a great record at Cheltenham.

You need to know if your horse is worthy if his price given the opposition he will face, not given how good he looked in his trials beating horses he won't face in march.

it'll be no bet then