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Ballydoyle
14 Nov 10 09:45
Joined:
Date Joined: 23 Feb 02
| Topic/replies: 11,054 | Blogger: Ballydoyle's blog
People don't actually take bets like this do they?????LaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaugh
Pause Switch to Standard View CUE CARD AT 3-1 FOR SUPREME NOVICES????
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Report brigust1 February 17, 2011 11:30 PM GMT
I think quite the opposite has happened Gash. The Tizzard's clearly think it is not CH form but they also changed tack about when to run next.
But, whether you like it or not, everyone only has the available form to go on. It is not perfect but it is all we have.
Also no matter what has won their races, or how easily, Cue Card has never drifted only got shorter.
And no matter how many favourites have lost in the Supreme this is a new race on a new day. I an hardly wait.
Report ilikewavingatbuses February 17, 2011 11:37 PM GMT
theformMan IS rafa......................'FACT'Plain
Report ilikewavingatbuses February 17, 2011 11:38 PM GMT
im almost willing CC to rout them just to read the pearlers that'll be on this thread, could be a classic fellas, see u tomorrowLaugh
Report sj February 18, 2011 12:12 AM GMT
Ok so we'll pull apart the Menorah form, could the layers enlighten us as to what horse and particular piece of form make Cue Card a take on at 9-4? Also if I was that confident of getting Cue Card i'd go top price
Report Alvarado February 18, 2011 12:15 AM GMT
could be even better when he gets beaten.there is nothinbg wrong with menorah beating him im just saying it told us where hes at that might be good enough but i think it will not be good enough
Report aka February 18, 2011 12:39 AM GMT
Gashboy13 - good analysis of Menorah; if he gets the race conditions you describe in the CH, as likely he will, he'll be a big danger to all, imo.

CC I find very hard to judge in relation to the SN, though clearly plenty of ability there.
Report brigust1 February 18, 2011 6:59 AM GMT
I've backed Cue Card, a long time ago, and absolutely no regrets. I haven't backed Menorah and also no regrets.
Aka, you cannot claim Menorah has a good chance in possibly the hottest race at the meeting and then rubbish Cue Cards chances in a much weaker race. Whether you like it or nor not they are inextricably linked.
To put it in plain English. If CC wins the Supreme it will enhance Menorah's chances, if CC gets stuffed then Menorah's chances will lessen.
Report buddeliea February 18, 2011 8:04 AM GMT
Their is not one piece of novice form anywhere that can be compared to finishing just behind a CH contender,that cannot be disputed.
Whether that means CC will win the supreme i dont know,but it certainly dont mean he cant!!
As usual the race is full of unexposed horses that could be anything,and CC is one of them.
FWIW i have Sprinter and Day of a Lifetime at nice odds,but hopeful at best,in such a hard race to work out.
Report Rondetto February 18, 2011 8:11 AM GMT
Being a danger is one thing being good enough is another. His win over GMOOH isn't good enough form, if it was Jonjo would never have contmplated sending him over fences. His win from Bothy was good but Bothy would be tailed off in a CH.

What impressed most people was the way he accelerated past Cue Card only problem with that is when is Menorah ever show an instant turn off foot like that?

He ground both Get Me Out of Here to death he never accelerated past them but all of a sudden he's Nijinsky?

What we saw was a horse running on very strongly like he always does and another horse stopping dead in his tracks.

If you replaced him with Binocular or Hurricane Fly they'd have done what Menorah did without coming off the bridle, kid yourself not about that.

Menorah will run a good race in the Champion Hurdle for sure but  actually win it? Not on anything he's done to date he wont. I wouldn't be surprised if Dunguib reversed Superme Hurdle form with him after the crap ride he got last year.

As far as Cue Card goes, he was let down to give him a chance to fill out and strengthen up as more according to Tizzard. Obviously he was a worried man when his horse stopped like a horse who clearly never stayed or for the sake of not causing an argument lets say didn't have the strength to find any reserves.

The big question is has he shown any improvement for his rest? If he has it can't be much or Tizzard would be thinking he might be able to reverse placing with Menorah and win the Champion Hurdle.

The truth is we don't even know if Menorah is CH class and yet we are expected to take a gamble at 9/4 that this Cue Card is some sort of good thing based on the fact he finished a bad second to him.

My advice is when he's hack cantering 3 out push those lay buttons because he'll just do exactly the same as he did in the International the minute the pressure is applied.
Report aka February 18, 2011 10:02 AM GMT
Aka, you cannot claim Menorah has a good chance in possibly the hottest race at the meeting and then rubbish Cue Cards chances in a much weaker race.

Where have I rubbished CC's chances. Brigust1? I think you need to read other people's posts more carefully before commenting. I said I find it hard to assess his chances, which is hardly rubbishing the horse, is it?

My point about Menorah was contingent on him getting the type of race conditions Gashboy13 noted; that is, a big field, fast run race. He had almost the opposite conditions in the International. For that and other reasons, the International, imo, is a poor guide to anything that is likely to happen in the SN and the CH. Therefore I wasn't reading anything from the form of that race about either Menorah or CC.

Cue Card's run behind Menorah in the International neither elevates that horse's chances in the SN, nor reduces them, imo.
Report brigust1 February 18, 2011 10:17 AM GMT
I did read your views aka. Surely if you use the International as a guide then CC's chances are involved, that is why I said if CC wins the Supreme it will reflect on Menorah's chances. After all if he was beaten by the horse you think could win the CH it must be a good point?
Also I don't,as yet, see the fast race requirement. Menorah's best win, in my opinion, was the International. He only narrowly won the fast run races you think he prefers. In fact beating GMOOH and Bothy narrowly and fully extended are lower points than bolting up in the International. Aren't they?
Report Autocue February 18, 2011 10:30 AM GMT
Cue Card either wins easy or he has an accident on the way round which isn't out of the question given the nature of the race, fast early pace, some novices running free with some dodgy jumping. Connections of Dunguib lost their bottle last year by making the jockey go wide out of trouble. You could argue his jumping wasn't good enough to be in the thick of it. No problems with Cue Card in that respect though they will ride him handy to avoid trouble. Barring accidents he will pull away by eight lengths plus to win in a faster time than the later Champion. In doing so he will take a lot out of himself and will flop next time at Aintree if Tizzard does what he says he will do for a change and runs him there as well. There you go, crystal ball put away for another year.
If Cue Card loses the Supreme I hope Joe Tizzard is gracious in defeat, unlike the way he blanked Richard Johnson after the Bula. He behaved like a petulant kid and perhaps that's why he rides mostly for daddy.
Report toon4eva February 18, 2011 11:41 AM GMT
Get paid today and am gonna lump on him for SN but just been in bookies and no longer doing nrnb on the race anyone know if anywhere is nrnb .9-4 a steal now confirmed for race will be 5-4 on the day and can't see him getting beat.
Report aka February 18, 2011 11:49 AM GMT
I did read your views aka. Surely if you use the International as a guide then CC's chances are involved,

But I am not using the International as a guide, as I pointed out. Sorry if I left my original post open to that misinterpretation. Others may take a different view of the form of the International, which is fine. I don't rubbish horses though, and certainly not ones as clearly talented as Cue Card.

I would agree that it is by no means proven that Menorah would be better suited by a strong end-to-end gallop, though my own view is that he would be. Menorah has yet to encounter a race as fast run as the CH is likely to be. His TS ratings for the Greatwood and the SN were higher though than his TS rating for the International. In a more true run race, you would expect the winner to be fully extended or close to that in a competitive race, as Menorah was in winning the SN and when conceding weight in the Greatwood. Slower run races that develop into something of a sprint finish can more often exaggerate the margin of victory and may seem visually more impressive than the reality might be.

My personal judgement about Menorah is that the faster they go and the more competitive the horses are in front of him, the better he will perform. It is only my opinion, though, it is not something that can be fully supported with evidence from form reading or from an analysis of race times. I don't necessarily see him as the winner of the CH, but he is not one I would want to be underestimating.

Rondetto offers a summary below of points that have frequently been repeated on here about Menorah's chances in the CH from a form angle. The only point I would disagree with from that post is the idea that Menorah ground them down in the SN. The overall race time for the SN and the sectional times just don't support the idea that the race was won through attrition. If Menorah 'ground them down' in what was a comparatively modest time for the SN, there must have been some weak stayers behind him. I would have said that a good tactical ride and having just about enough speed to take advantage of getting first run on the other main contenders, were the main factors contributing to his win in the SN. He is not an especially fast horse for the distance, imo, but neither would I see him as an out and out grinder.

Sorry to get off the theme of the thread, which is about Cue CArd.
Report eric_morris February 18, 2011 12:01 PM GMT
Before the Bula I said on here Menorah was the biggest danger to Binocular retaining his hurdling crown ... havent seen anything that would change my opinion.

Cue Card needs to be ridden up with the lead if not making the running as he will intimidate fellow novices who come alongside into coming off the bridle he travels so well. He definitely doesnt want to be given too much to do as like Finian's Rainbow over fences, it is his natural cruising speed and rhythm that can burn them off from the front without taking as much effort out of himself in doing so.
Report aka February 18, 2011 2:15 PM GMT
Good summary, Eric. As you say, Cue Card has a very good cruising speed and. with the right ride and pace profile to the race, he likely will be a danger to all in the SN. Always hard to know what else is out there for the SN (as Recession Proof's run today is a reminder) and particularly so in a season that has been so interrupted by lost fixtures and with the ground conditions so often being that bit softer than we are likely to get at the Festival.
Report ilikewavingatbuses February 18, 2011 4:06 PM GMT
if someone thinks menorah can win the champion the CC must be a certainty in the supreme.

that is all.
Report Alvarado February 18, 2011 4:12 PM GMT
not really i think finians rainbow will but that dosentmean i fancy hells bay for the jewsonwin the arkle
Report Alvarado February 18, 2011 4:13 PM GMT
*will win the arkle
Report Alvarado February 18, 2011 4:14 PM GMT
ive had a nightmare here

lets start again
i think finians rainbow will win the arkle but that dosent mean hells bay should win the jewson does it
Report Can't Catch Me February 18, 2011 4:18 PM GMT
Alvarado Joined: 20 Sep 10
Replies: 1004 18 Feb 11 16:14 
ive had a nightmare here

Should have called it a day there imo Mischief
Report Alvarado February 18, 2011 4:25 PM GMT
u shud of called it a day on the 3rd of april 2003
Report Wicketd February 18, 2011 4:34 PM GMT
Alvarado. Cry

I agree with aka about the International though. It was run very slowly, something that the Supreme and CH will NOT be, so to take the form literally, ie, Menorah has a good chance of winning CH so Cue Card is a dead cert for the Supreme, is wrong. I still think Cue Card is a good price at 9/4, but not because of his run behind Menorah. The race is not true form and that will be proven over time.
Report aka February 18, 2011 4:36 PM GMT
Extrapolating from a small field race run at little more than a moderate early pace (the International), to draw conclusions about what is likely to happen in the CH or the SN, is fraught with difficulty surely?

It is quite possible that Menorah will run very well in the CH and Cue Card win the SN, but I am not sure their respective runs in the International make that any more likely to happen or provides some immutable guide to tying in the form each is likely to show at the Festival.
Report aka February 18, 2011 4:36 PM GMT
Sorry, Wicketd, you beat me to the post.
Report Wicketd February 18, 2011 4:38 PM GMT
Yours obviously worded much better, however. Blush
Report TheFormMan February 18, 2011 7:14 PM GMT
Tired of the CC debate,my last word on the subject is that if Cue Card wins the supreme i will happily admit that i know sweet fvck all about racing and that i am the biggest cvnt walking thge face of the earth!
Report brigust1 February 18, 2011 7:25 PM GMT
^^^^^drama queen.
Report call it a day February 18, 2011 7:27 PM GMT
Nice to see Bothy run well today, another advert for Menorah. I guess that means another advert for Cue Card. As for petulant Joe blanking Richard Johnson, that is probably the biggest pile of manure posted on here for a long time.
Report eric_morris February 18, 2011 8:35 PM GMT
He did blank him to be fair, I noticed straight away and have it recorded.
Report Autocue February 19, 2011 8:35 AM GMT
Thanks eric, call it a day should do. It was bleedin' obvious.
Report BJG February 19, 2011 1:52 PM GMT
Alvarado Joined: 20 Sep 10
Replies: 1018 18 Feb 11 22:39 
menorah is the best hurdler ive ever seen

hes got everything




So i take it this is ur first season ever watching some racing - everything makes sense now ShockedShocked
Report unclepuncle February 24, 2011 9:33 AM GMT
Shame that Topolski isn't in the Supreme - only just seen it's debut run at Sandown on Friday and it looked very smart beating two good yardsticks.
Report Alvarado February 24, 2011 11:41 AM GMT
bjg fuc k off u fat low life
Report Monsieur Bond February 24, 2011 9:39 PM GMT
Look at how Cue Card jumps the hurdle at the bottom of the hill in the International, thats more akin to the pace in the Supreme, also it was his first proper race where he came off the bridle and had to battle, he was going away from Silviniaco Conti at the finish, really can't see this being beaten, jumps like a stag, will settle in the pack and jump better than Dunguib last year :)
Report unclepuncle February 25, 2011 9:09 AM GMT
I can't believe how many poeple say 'can't see it being beaten'. I bet they don't remortgage their houses and put every single penny they have on these unbeatable selectionsCry

A bit of perspective would be nice - there are at least 6 horses in the Supreme betting that I wouldn't be at all surprised if they won - and of course theres always the chance a horse I don't consider might win as well (Artic Kinsman, Ebizayan etc)

With respect to Cue Card the current market suggests he is twice as likely to lose as win - so go figure??
Report Dark Destroyer February 25, 2011 9:34 AM GMT
Uncle

At the risk of repeating myself I firmly believe that if he was trained by Nichols, Henderson or Mullins CC would nearer 5/4 than 5/2. Still more likely to lose than win so I am definitely not in the "cant see him being beaten" camp. There have been many similarly priced Cheltenham favourites in the novice races over the past 20 years with the vast majority (IMO again) having far weaker claims (usually based on small-field performances at slower pace than festival races) than CC brings to the table this year.

Thats the closest I am likely to get to a sense of perspective!
Report festivalfanatic February 25, 2011 9:42 AM GMT
He is the most likely winner on the evidence to far. However, the winner of this race is going to need the ability to quicken off a fast pace. My recollection of the International is that Menorah went away from him off the final bend in a matter of strides. If the Henderson entries make it to the track along with Zaidpour and John Quinn's horse, then this will be a proper race, no question. I suspect Cue Card might even trade at 3/1 on the day.
Report eric_morris February 25, 2011 9:56 AM GMT
festivalfanatic ... they know to keep Cue Card close to the pace to use his very high cruising speed if not make the running. He will have some stamina imo as a bumper winner would normally so needs to use that high cruising speed and stamina to maximum effect to burn them off. imo that is how he will win the Supreme.
Report eric_morris February 25, 2011 9:58 AM GMT
Think Hardy Eustace but a higher cruising speed.
Report eric_morris February 25, 2011 10:00 AM GMT
..and a bit less kick than Hardy.

.. which is why he needs to be right up there and fending them off for cruising/stamina imo.
Report red and white February 25, 2011 6:40 PM GMT
He just has to repeat his November run. That was good enough to win any supreme.
Report Alvarado February 25, 2011 6:43 PM GMT
not really that race was horrendous for a grade 2 at chelts.

hes not that good the most over hyped horse ever he was thrashed by menorah and cue card is now exposed place lay for me cant have it on my mind at all rubbish jock/trainer exposed horse 2/1 no thanks
Report brigust1 February 25, 2011 6:49 PM GMT
No need to talk like that Alv. The 'rubbish jock/trainer' actually got him to 2/1f for the Supreme so they can't be that bad.
You think it's a lay well that's OK just no need to slag off a pretty good small outfit.
Report sj February 25, 2011 7:21 PM GMT
Alvarado Joined: 20 Sep 10
Replies: 1153 25 Feb 11 18:43   


not really that race was horrendous for a grade 2 at chelts.

hes not that good the most over hyped horse ever he was thrashed by menorah and cue card is now exposed place lay for me cant have it on my mind at all rubbish jock/trainer exposed horse 2/1 no thanks

And still we wait for the piece of form that a novice has bettered that this season, still we wait
Report Alvarado February 25, 2011 7:33 PM GMT
spirit son 31l beating of 130 rated cedre bleu better than anything done by cue card

zaidpour 50l win a grade 1 vs 125 horses also better
Report Leonardo February 25, 2011 7:36 PM GMT
One thing that Cue Card ain't is exposed ffs
Report chief dan February 25, 2011 8:15 PM GMT
spirit son beat cedre bleu who is a 3 mile chaser in the making an wouldnt get near menorah and as for zaidpour horse runs like wichitea lineman on an off the bridle all race an surely is better over further,Cue Card has the best form an course form by long way imo an his current price is better than i could imagine but the favs in this race have a bad ratio but im more than happy with 5/2- 11/4 CC if i can get it
Report sj February 25, 2011 8:26 PM GMT
Alvarado Joined: 20 Sep 10
Replies: 1154 25 Feb 11 19:33   


spirit son 31l beating of 130 rated cedre bleu better than anything done by cue card

zaidpour 50l win a grade 1 vs 125 horses also better

So Zaidpour is going to finish in front of him with what he's done since? Wow. You're discrediting CC for a 4 length beating by Menorah just admit that its nothing to do with form and you're taking him on blind cos he's a short fav. There is no method in your take on
Report TheFormMan February 25, 2011 9:06 PM GMT
Sorry eric,but if you think that a horse with a high cruising speed and a little bit of stamina can win a supreme then you are very much mistaken,this race is about a finishing burst of speed at the end of the race and that is one thing CC has proven not to have in his locker over 2 miles and whoever said CC was not exposed then more fool you,at this trip he has been very much exposed,all CC backers are going to be proven idiots come race day
Report unclepuncle February 25, 2011 9:28 PM GMT
Leonardo
One thing that Cue Card ain't is exposed ffs


I actually think he is exposed now - he is exposed as being a very high class novice with proven course form, so clearly the one to beatHappy

The question is whether the unexposed horses (in particular Sprinter Sacre and Spirit Son) can improve past him. I'm still hoping Sprinter Sacre is the 2nd comingLaugh
Report eric_morris February 25, 2011 9:36 PM GMT
TheFormMan you have a very valid point. The Supreme there is something breaks for pace you are right.

However I think, if ridden well to maintain a high tempo, Cue Card will play to his strengths and stretch them out as a bumper winner with some stamina and his high cruising pace made Menorah and Silviniaco look pedestrian at various points. All about the ride he is given imo.
Report Alvarado February 25, 2011 9:43 PM GMT
thats exactly my point uncle we know his limit now hes very good but certaintly not unbeatable and a shade of top class spirit son could be anything so too could sprinter

some idiot put up on here all he needs to do is run to what he did at chelts in november im sorry but beating a very poor field and dunraven storm by 8l will not even get u placed in the supreme there was a massive overreaction to that race timeform saying its the greatest performance ever no its not that was a shocking race i cant have al ferof but even he would beat dunraven 8l or more
Report red and white February 25, 2011 10:22 PM GMT
Funny that, I also remember an idiot on here spouting off about Zaidpour being a monster. What did he do, bite your wallet?
Report Monsieur Bond February 25, 2011 10:38 PM GMT
And doesn't this topic just go to show why betfair was created and why Cheltenham is so special, differing opinions that are stressed months and weeks before a 4-5minute race, bring it on! I said I couldn't see Cue Card being beaten, in the sense that the only dangers to my eyes are the 2 Hendersons and I'm of the opinion that neither would have done any better than Cue Card did against Menorah.....

I did back Dunguib mind, but lets not go there about the ride that got!!! ;)
Report cruise d February 25, 2011 10:43 PM GMT
Christ whats up with some of you lot? Interesting debate equals [:D]. But childlike tit for tat playground bickering equals Cry.

I have to say Cue Card is a better price than you would expect given what it's done this season compared with some of the previous favs of late and their comparative merits.

Alvarado I wouldn't be so quick to put down Dunraven Storm either. The race before getting beat 8 lengths by CC it beat Recession Proof 4 lenghts off levels. That form is pretty solid wouldn't you say? They have put Dunraven away because there was clearly something up when it ran last time out and I wouldn't be surprised to see it run a really solid race in the Supreme.
Report Alvarado February 26, 2011 12:25 AM GMT
why cant zaidpour be a monster i dident know he raced at a proper pace and on decent ground hes got scope unlike CC who was thrashed in the bula

dunravens decent but any horse out of the top 10 in beating would beat him just as easily as cue card did
Report cruise d February 26, 2011 2:18 AM GMT
Just because his last run against Toubab was below par it doesn't spoil Dunraven's previous form. This is from the RP in Dunraven's last run including a quote from Hobbs:-

As they travelled down the back, the pace remained sedate with the four runners closely grouped. Several slick jumps in the back straight saw Dunraven Storm jump into a share of the lead. However, the slow pace clearly hampered the favourite's chances and as they quickened in the home straight he was left behind.

"He lost his race at the start," said Philip Hobbs. "He boiled over beforehand and then pulled too hard in the race. He ran miles below his true form and we'll give him a break now."


Dunraven has already beaten Recession proof off levels and he's 4th in the betting ffs! That's a strange comment you have just made above. I find some of your comments in this thread a little peculiar if I'm honest, you knock  CC for being "a shade short of top class" and go on to point 2 horses out that could be anything as a reason for it's weakness. Just come out and say you are out to get it beat because your arguement for CC being a bad bet aren't too great at the moment. CC is a shade short of Champion Hurdle class at 5 ffs, that is rare for a novice and deserves respect. The form with Dunraven is very solid and there are always plenty of horses in the supreme that are unkowns that could be anything.

The race is very tough to win and just saying it's a hard race for a fav to win and I'd rather look elswhere for the value would be sufficient fella. Trying to come with poor reasons to knock a horse who is a very worthy favourite and probably a shade bigger in the betting than he should be given what stupid prices some favs have gone off at in the last few years seems a waste of time. I have always tried to get the fav beat in this race and I very much doubt I'll be backing Cue Card but I really fear him.

For me it's not a race to get too heavily involved in because of all the unknowns, I will probably back Dunraven's ew because he is amazing value for one below par effort. There is a small chance that 4 races in 6 weeks was too much for Dunraven so early in the season, it is also possible that he could be a good deal closer to CC than he showed in their race because he it was his 3rd race in just over a month a at the time.
Report cruise d February 26, 2011 2:21 AM GMT
That shouldn't read small chance that 4 races......

I got ahead of myself, I was thinking about Dunraven's form with CC and thinking there is a small chance that they are closer than the bare form would suggest and stuck the words small in ahead of where I should have.[smiley:crazy]
Report brigust1 February 26, 2011 7:02 AM GMT
For CC backers like me the defeat by Menorah was a good thing. His price would be 4/5 without that, whether he wins or not.
Trainers are still learning about these new novices just like NH did with Binoular. It took 3 seasons for him get it right.
The Tizzards did the right thing by a)running him fresh and b)not going for the CH.
Also with NH having so many easy winners helps the price. Pity the bookies don't push him out accordingly. Maybe on the day he will drift a little, Dunguib went from 4/6 to 4/5 on the day so, although I've backed him already I will top up on the day at BOG.
Unless he loses a leg first, of course.
Report sj February 26, 2011 10:13 AM GMT
Alvarado Joined: 20 Sep 10
Replies: 1157 26 Feb 11 00:25   


why cant zaidpour be a monster i dident know he raced at a proper pace and on decent ground hes got scope unlike CC who was thrashed in the bula

dunravens decent but any horse out of the top 10 in beating would beat him just as easily as cue card did

So CC was thrashed in the Bula> Four lengths is now a thrashing? Also Zaidpour can still be a monster? WOW blind faith
Report zilzal1 February 26, 2011 10:16 AM GMT
Imo its all about Cue Cards price on the day, if he's smashed into under 7-4 id find a couple to beat him at the current prices id probably give the race a swerve
Report Alvarado February 26, 2011 12:07 PM GMT
only four lenghts johnson stopped riding after the last could of been 20l if asked

he was thrashed and put in his place
Report brigust1 February 26, 2011 12:29 PM GMT
Alvarado

A recipe for  HUMBLE PIE

16 oz Self Raising Opinion
I pint Milking it
1 large tsp Humility

Mix well

Place in a warm oven and cook slowly for several weeks.

You may need this in a couple of weeks.
Report Far From Trouble February 26, 2011 12:30 PM GMT
Cue Card, was not thrashed. Is it not possible that Menorah is in fact a top class horse?
Report eric_morris February 26, 2011 12:31 PM GMT
There are no Menorah's in the Supreme. Charlie Swan has just compared Menorah to Istabraq. Said on here before the Bula that Menorah was the biggest danger to Binocular retaining his crown.
Report TheFormMan February 26, 2011 12:33 PM GMT
sj

I suggest if you are going to continue betting on this sport that you get a little more understanding of what you are watching,if you are of the opinion that CC was not well and truly destroyed by Menorah then you are very much mistaken,its not the winning distance that you need to focus on,its the manor and authority in which he desposed of him in a matter of strides.
Races must be watched and reviewed a number of times over on replay before coming to your final conclusion,perhaps if you did this you may change your opinion.
Big Bucks previous 3 winning distances were 6L,3L and 2 3/4L and im sure you will agree that he thrashed the opposition on each occasion.
The International win did nothing to enhance Menorahs claims,all he did was what was expected of him and breeze past 2 horses over a trip 'OBVIOUSLY' to short for them,his Greatwood win carrying top weight on ground that would not have really suited was head and sholders miles ahead.
Report brigust1 February 26, 2011 1:21 PM GMT
Is it fair to say that using Menorah as a guide can be hugely misleading because we don't as yet know how good Menorah is?

And we cannot wait for Menorah to run again before having a bet.

So leave him out of the calculations and you have CC beating SC and Clerk's Choice and he would be unbeaten in 5 races. Therefore he would be a shade of odds for the Supreme with the added experience of winning at a festival under his belt.
If you can get anywhere near 3/1 before the off I think that is a very, very fair  bet, win or lose.
Report TheFormMan February 26, 2011 2:02 PM GMT
I'm sorry but what the fu ck would Charlie Swan know abot Menorah,he has probably never been within 50 miles of the horse and what makes his opinion so special,we all know that Menorah is a very good horse,the point was that CC is anything but that over the 2 mile trip and to say there are no Menorahs in this years race is a bad statement as there are lost of unexposed horses who could be anything.
Taking out the International form brig,as you say and CC form is no better than any number of runners in the supreme,he is the price he is due to last years bumper win and its as simple as that,he has been a short price winner for this race ever since that day,but this is no bumper race,far from it and the current price is the worst value at the festival
Report sj February 26, 2011 2:08 PM GMT
TheFormMan Joined: 05 Dec 10
Replies: 232 26 Feb 11 12:33   


sj

I suggest if you are going to continue betting on this sport that you get a little more understanding of what you are watching,if you are of the opinion that CC was not well and truly destroyed by Menorah then you are very much mistaken,its not the winning distance that you need to focus on,its the manor and authority in which he desposed of him in a matter of strides.
Races must be watched and reviewed a number of times over on replay before coming to your final conclusion,perhaps if you did this you may change your opinion.
Big Bucks previous 3 winning distances were 6L,3L and 2 3/4L and im sure you will agree that he thrashed the opposition on each occasion.
The International win did nothing to enhance Menorahs claims,all he did was what was expected of him and breeze past 2 horses over a trip 'OBVIOUSLY' to short for them,his Greatwood win carrying top weight on ground that would not have really suited was head and sholders miles ahead.

We're going down the snidey remarks route are we? I'm surprised you dint put a "son" in there as well.
I have watched the race over and over thank you, and I would suggest that Menorah was ridden out to the line and won by 4 lengths. The horse has won the Greatwood and the Supreme Novice hurdle I sont see any shame in Cue Card being beaten by 4 lengths I'm well aware it s not just the distance Zarkava was one on the flat you couldnt take literally but in my OPINION and thats all it is YOU SMUG PR AT I dont see no novice who would of got within that distance that day.
I will try and have a little more UNDERSTANDING in future oh great one
Report TheFormMan February 26, 2011 2:30 PM GMT
'I dont see no novice who would of got within that distance that day'

you dont know what would have happened had the likes of Sprinter Sacre,Spirit Son or Zaidpour to name just a few,had run in the International,it is just guess work on your part to make the above statement.so in  your opinion,surely CC cant be value at 5/2 for a festival race on pure guess work in the hope that all the unexposed runners in the field are all rubbish
Report sj February 26, 2011 2:33 PM GMT
You're correct Sprinter Sacre and Spirit Son could be anything, Zaidpour? Really how many chances are we going to give this horse?
Did you see what I done there? Responded with out being a patronising wan ker. Your turn
Report brigust1 February 26, 2011 2:39 PM GMT
TheFormMan can I refer you above to the recipe for Humble Pie.

Everyone, and that includes both you and Charlie Swan, have a right to offer their views and we, as punters, will make our decisions.
Some we get right and some we get wrong but the journey must be as enjoyable as possible.
We know your views. You can back them with your hard earned and you can glory in the sunshine of success should you be right. But try not to slag off all and sundry along the way.
Report TheFormMan February 26, 2011 3:03 PM GMT
Do not slag off all and sundry,just amateurs who try and play at this game and post rubbish
Report cruise d February 26, 2011 3:15 PM GMT
^^^^^^ After some of the stuff you've posted on the CH thread, you are one to talk!

This thread indicates all that is wrong with the forums. People can't offer an opinion without it turning into playground bickering.
Report red and white February 26, 2011 3:43 PM GMT
Well obviously it's because money is involved so forget about idealistic hopes of honest debate, apart from on the occasional excellent thread. Take Alvarado for instance. Every comment about Cue Card he makes on here is aimed at slating the horse. He'll put up an opponent that is supposedly in a different league and calls it a monster on the basis of one run, then when it gets beat he moves on to another. You have to sort out the ulterior motive folk, especially the ones who spell didn't dident.
Report Dr Martin Luther King February 26, 2011 4:58 PM GMT
The menorah / cue card / conti race at chelt was a farce. Festival form is the only pre race assement to use in another festival race imo. Only one winner and I think we may even get a straight forecast with the hales runner chasing him home again ! bring it on.
Report cruise d February 26, 2011 5:08 PM GMT
Rather hard to use festival form in the supreme though Luther isn't it? I agree with you rpoint for a lot of other races to some extent but following the previous years NHF winner at the festival has proven a quick route the poor house of late.
Report Dr Martin Luther King February 26, 2011 7:06 PM GMT
Will be different this year as CC can actually jump well and will get a proper ride [;)]
Report bigtrucker February 26, 2011 7:58 PM GMT
MLK

Has Al Ferof been confirmed for the race
Thinking it will be shorter than 16s if it has been.

TIA
Report sj February 26, 2011 8:03 PM GMT
Amatuer's PMSL. Well done mate
Report red and white February 26, 2011 8:07 PM GMT
It's nonsense saying Cue Card can't win because Dunguib didn't, yet it's surprising how often that argument is put forward. He's a far better jumper of hurdles (I think Dunguib should be chasing)and IMHO the quickest bumper winner we've seen since Montelado.
I'm pretty sure Dunguib's jockey was riding to instructions last year Dr. as they knew his jumping was suspect, so I thought it was poor when he was blamed for the defeat.
The Bula form is suspect as there was no pace, it came after weather-interrupted preparations, and Silviniaco Conti ran like a drain last week, but you don't need it to make a case for either Cue Card or Menorah in their respective races. The former has by far the easier task though, and I suspect I will hold off from betting on the champion until after the supreme. I can't help thinking Hurricane is the Fly in the ointment in the big race and it would be great to see him get there at last.
Report cruise d February 26, 2011 11:22 PM GMT
red and white  When: 26 Feb 11 20:07

It's nonsense saying Cue Card can't win because Dunguib didn't, yet it's surprising how often that argument is put forward.


I agree. The problem is that some people in the last page or so want ignore the fact that some races are more likely to produce a winner from the head of the market compared with others and the supreme certainly is not one of them. First season hurdlers are by definition mostly unknown and many of them are very progressive, this fact makes backing the fav in the supreme not too great an idea IMO. Certainly in recent years anyway where in the last 6 years the average sp of the winner is around 16/1.

I really rate CC and I think he is decent value at his current price compared with say Dunguib went off at last year. But I don't want to get too involved in a race with so many unkowns especially not at the start of the week. For me this will be a small bet on what I consider to be a live outsider and wait for a better opportunity to back a shorty in a later race where I consider there to be less sleepers in the field.

Slagging CC and talking up the horses behind in the betting isn't necessary. CC has the best form in the race and is more than a worthy favourite. But there will be a lot of top yards pitching their best novice against CC and their will be a few of those yards that think they have something special.
Report cruise d February 26, 2011 11:26 PM GMT
I've used the wrong their where I should have used there aboveSad. I must go and flog myself[smiley:crazy]!
Report Stake & Chips February 27, 2011 11:05 AM GMT
Paddy Power refunding losing bets on the race if Cue Card wins.

Time to get stuck into Sprinter Sacre when non runner no bet appears Cool
Report Masterminded February 27, 2011 11:06 AM GMT
Cool
Report TheFormMan February 27, 2011 11:58 AM GMT
always knew that there was alot of brains at P POWER,i'm sure on there site it reads 'in the unlikely event that CC wins the supreme................'
Report sj February 27, 2011 3:57 PM GMT
Sorry? Brians at Paddy Power this is to attract money for horses other than Cue Card, jesus and you call me the amatuer.
Report Benjy February 27, 2011 4:48 PM GMT
Is this ante-post only or will it be day of the race as well?
Report cyrusdailami February 27, 2011 8:48 PM GMT
they deserve to get destroyed with this one. Different class to Dunguib.
Report brigust1 February 27, 2011 9:01 PM GMT
^^I will ignore that. It's late. Buy a form book fella.
Report Gashboy13 February 27, 2011 10:23 PM GMT
I am going thru the Supreme again as I often do with the Cheltenham races as it helps me find things I've missed or gives me different perspectives. Up until now I have been against Cue Card and am reassessing the reasons why. I seem to remember reading somewhere (maybe on here) that Tizzard's horses were out of form in December? This might not be true, but i have a vague fragment of doubt in the back of my mind. Could someone either clear this up for me, or possibly tell me where i could find Trainer stats per month as I've searched everywhere! Many thanks!!
Report davescrazy February 27, 2011 10:31 PM GMT
on sat tizzard had 2nd and 4th in the racing post chase, had a winner with coup roayle,another 4th in the last at kemp yest aswell,, looks to be coming into form at the right time
Report davescrazy February 27, 2011 10:33 PM GMT
http://horses.sportinglife.com/Trainer_Profile/0,12487,18881,00.html
Report davescrazy February 27, 2011 10:34 PM GMT
try the sporting life , click stats ,jump trainer season and then click on c tizzard brings up the season stats
Report Gashboy13 February 27, 2011 10:48 PM GMT
Thanks Dave, I've got all that. But looking for the stats rom December specifically.
Report davescrazy February 27, 2011 10:51 PM GMT
yea just noticed that , wat a piece of shhhiiit , says season stats and gives you until 1st jan wtf ,
Report Gashboy13 February 27, 2011 10:59 PM GMT
worked it out on the rp website - go to colin tizzard, then stats and search by month 2/23 in Dec
Report jamessurrey February 28, 2011 8:43 PM GMT
crickey, here's me thinking we're discussing CC's chances and it's turned into a pathetic scoring points exercise.  Remember it takes 2 views to make a market, if everyone thought the same thing it would be boring.  Everyone is entitled to their opinion, whether you agree with it or not it's their right to have it!

personally i think 9/4 is plenty short enough from a value perspective in a race which tends to bring improvers.  In MY opinion, when backing / laying you need to look at value, blinding backing something at ANY price isn't the correct thing to do, if CC was 10's then i'd say it's a great bet but 9/4 doesn't really appeal even if he has the best form so far.
Report red and white February 28, 2011 9:45 PM GMT
Where is the value in your opinion or are you not betting in the race? 10s with Cue Card's form is asking a lot, the sort of bet you wouldn't get very often. If you only took opportunities like that you'd die of boredom waiting for them. There is no doubt your point is correct though somewhat exaggerated.

A few of Tizzards performed below par around the time of the Bula Gashboy. He reported his gallops had been frozen. You'll remember the awful weather end November/early December.
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