Cheltenham Festival
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For a long time the Triumph has been my most successful race at the Festival and as such is the race I concentrate on from an ante-post perspective. I don't usually expect to make an investment until after Christmas, but Sam Winner's performance today fully justifies favouritism and warrants a bet imo.
On my clock he produced a performance about 10lbs behind a decent Triumph-winning performance, but that was his first run for over 6 months, his first in the UK, he had a fair bit up his sleeve and he has the scope to improve. To put it in perspective, I rate that as good a performance as any that Detroit City put up prior to winning his Triumph.
2pts win Sam Winner
On my clock he produced a performance about 10lbs behind a decent Triumph-winning performance, but that was his first run for over 6 months, his first in the UK, he had a fair bit up his sleeve and he has the scope to improve. To put it in perspective, I rate that as good a performance as any that Detroit City put up prior to winning his Triumph.
2pts win Sam Winner
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If you got at least 16 s
GL But looking at his physique made me think he might be better as a CHASER ps:I note Nichols main triumph hoss is supposed to be Empire Levant  |
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im finding it hard to think that nicholls has one better than that , i havent checked the distances but he must have beaten the third horse by 40 lenghths , and that was 1st time out , after changing stables and he wernt even shown the whip, i wonder how far he could havewon by
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I think the horse has a great chance, and as you say should improve throughout the season, but I am just weary of backing horses, generally but not always, that have the size and frame of a chaser. This horse is over 16hands, I think.
Other than that all looks good. Blue Squire went 8/1 but they took business and had to cut to 7's, fwiw. |
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Plenty more to see at this early stage
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I was seriously taken by this horse. Absolutely loved him.
But not sure I'd back him in a triumph. A very exciting prospect over fences imo. |
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He looked a 160 horse if you judge the race on the ones that have got handicap marks already. A mark of 145 seriously underplays this horses performance the other day
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A 160 horse, where have you got that from? I can make a case for his RPR being TOO high?
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The RPR never take into account WFA - therefore its near impossible for a juvenile to have a RPR too high surely ?
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I rated him on the Chelt performance in the high 140s (maybe a bit more) if you include the WFA at this time of year.
The problem is whether he will mature in a predictable way or whether he is almost fully grown already. Many of the young French breds are far more advanced than the UK and IRE 3/4 year olds and as people have already stated (not that I have seen him) he is a big sawt! So if that is his "grown up" form he is not good value at 16/1. But if he progresses in line with the prescribed WFA scale, then 6/1 will look good on the day. |
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I didnt realise but it appears i named my 2yo filly after the thread originator. LOL
I cant even start to go into the french bred thing here, when SW is by a son of Kingmambo by a night shift mare |
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That's not really answering the question is it, how is he a 160 horse based on what he's beat there? Think it would be completely false to suggest that Two Kisses has run to 123 (or anywhere near when she clearly needs a sharp track as she is very much a doubtful stayer, based on flat speed and form. Would suggest she's very over rated based on a couple of summer juvenile hurdle wins also. He's a useful prospect no doubt, but I don't think he's as good as some think.
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A MEDIA LUZ
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I really liked the topspeed of 133. If you allow for WFA which isnt added on for some reason for Juvenile horses then hes ran to 150 ish there without being extended.
I dont see how anyone can think its overrated there. Its not just Two Kisses, use Pena Dorada, palawi's Haydock form with Gulf Punch, Zakeeta possibly. Either all of those ran 20lb below form, not just Two Kisses or the winners being let in light off 145. 145 for me, using the handicappers methods seems to underplay the strength of the form. 160 was maybe being a bit ott. But its gotta be a 150 horse hsant it |
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Koo, can't argue with the above, just thought suggesting he was a 160 horse implies he's got it in the bag already. Do feel juvenile form is hard to assess early season and think there will be horses that come through this season that are capable of doing similar to what he did there. Who they are though I couldn't say!
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I was at Cheltenham for the 3 day open meeting and this horse is a serious beast. Still looked raw and a bit green but slaughtered a few well touted horses. What you attend racing sometimes you see things that you just don't see when you watch it on the telly. Over my 3 days at cheltenham this is the one horse I keep coming back to. See it is around 5/6s which I guess is short enough given it is early in the season and plenty other quality horses will come out. However I do think this is a special horse.
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2 words empire levant
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Be great if me and dan won it with one from a selling race though. All those 100k+ buys and a few prob over 250k all beat by a poxy plater
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6 words
you are obsessed with empire levant |
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Has Sam Winner got an official rating right now? Compare him to Barizan last season who gained a rating of 140 in September for a 3yo hurdler. I can't remember an early season juvenile gaining such a high rating in September though I'm sure a few aficionados can correct me if I'm wrong! I must admit, that I thought he was way over-rated but in hindsight, the handicapper was right. As for Sam Winner, he's bladdered a field that comprised many winners and although the form of the race is difficult to gauge at the moment, I'd not be too keen about laying SW for the Triumph Hurdle - I hate backing ante-post, but I'd be surprised to see that performance rivalled. His rating has to be well in excess of Barizan's mark. I remember many moons ago, Broadsword was deeply impressive before Christmas and he was a short-priced favourite for the Triumph but alas, a rag, in Baron Blakeney managed to nail him at Cheltenham! Caveat emptor - there'll be dozens running for the bookies!
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I thought sam winner would be rated in the 150s after that, if he met the lot he just beat in a hcp off their ratings next week he'd be odds on!
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Harchi - Sam Winner rated 145
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Harchi
It's strange what you say about Barizan as at the time (last August) I rated it at 118 plus 19 for the WFA making it 137 and there has never been a juvenile that I can recall posting that figure so early. In the Triumph I had him running to around 135 (plus 7 WFA) giving 142. So the WFA scale was pretty near right it its improvement of Barizan, but will the same apply to the big french bred Sam Winner. I gave him a figure of 132 (WFA +16) resulting in 148. Now if he doesn't progress along the same lines as Barizan over the next few months, the 132 or even 140 probably won't be good enough. |
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Why wouldnt the Flat bred sam winner progress like the flat bred Barizan ?
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No reason at all Koo. I have not seen the horse in the flesh, but the comments above suggest he is a big lad (16 hands?), definitely not like Barizan
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16.2 or something like that, perhaps more.
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16 is about average isn't it ? He looks a big bugger anyway on the Video.
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I liked Alan Kings Smad Place at Newmury today and had an eachway poke at 16/1. Chepstow is the next stop for him imo.
He saw the trip out very well and a stiff 2m at Cheltenham will be righ up his street imo .. he was in receipt of 10lb from Dolatulo, but he beat him 27 lengths and looked like there was more to come imo. |
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Does anybody know where Sam Winner goes next?
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Nicholls said yesterday it will be unlikely to see him again before Xmas. ''We have all the time in the world'' something like that Dan, will probably be in his column on here..
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cheers sint should have thought of that! says he will probably go back to cheltenham next, guess that will be the opener on **** gold cup day.
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spoilsports
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Triumph Hurdle favourite Sam Winner is unlikely to be seen too often this season.
Owner Angela Yeoman is keen to tread carefully with the exciting three-year-old, who earlier this month at Cheltenham made a terrific winning debut for Paul Nicholls. She said: "I don't want to do too much with him too soon, but we think he's a lovely horse. "It all depends on the weather as to where he'll go next, but I don't want to rush things - we've got all the time in the world with him. "I'd have thought it unlikely we would see him before Christmas." The classy French recruit is the general 11-2 favourite to claim Cheltenham Festival honours after winning the Grade Two Triumph Hurdle Trial by an effortless 15 lengths. |
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Hmm, well he'd probably scare everything off at cheltenham especially with there being a more valuable race at donny the same day.
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The Sawyer - I don't get what you mean when you mentioned the Barizan comments were strange. I've just checked on the RP & ATR sites and he DID achieve a very early season official rating of 140. I'm glad you too couldn't think of a juvenile rated so highly after a performance in August. As I mentioned, I dismissed his form and he proved me wrong at three Festivals!
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Harchi
I was not saying your comments were strange, far from it, as they are most accurate and relevant to the point I am trying to get across: just strange that you brought it up when you did as I had typed out a similar piece in my post of 19/11 only to delete it before posting. Barizan seemingly progressed in line with the BHA's WFA scale - if Sam Winner does the same he will take some beating next March. |
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Smad Place heavily backed today, top price 12/1 now.
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Out tomorro, has to give A Media Luz a stone
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if henderson's horse is as good as they say then Sam Winner will have to be a machine to beat it giving it that much weight
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Geraughty giving her the full treatment on his BLOG
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