Cheltenham Festival
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What did we learn this weekend?
What did we learn this weekend?
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Given some of his past blunders RTB, I think it's a worrying sign. At his best he would spring over fences in very athletic fashion rather than hurdling them. I'd be very wary of backing him till he shows a consistent jumping style.
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That Betfair are a damn good company to hold an account with:
Went to Haydock, verified my account, and was given a Timeform racecard, 10 pounds worth of food/drink, a scarf, a chocolate bar and a half price voucher for a future meeting. Was much appreciated and made the day a lot more enjoyable. Also... Grands Crus is a big, strong tank of a horse and will not be one I'll take on without good reason. He was the most impressive winner of the weekend for me. |
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Rspect your opinion Steeplechasing but to me he looked nimble and economical
There we go. |
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Jumping low is fine but it has to be bl00dy accurate,and it would only take one fence a tad lower at that speed and its all over.Their could be a reason why he is jumping low,and its possible its not a good reason.
Nowt wrong with jumping normally, as most do, if they land without losing momentum,less likely to fall and no ground lost. |
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re. Dunraven - his run was so poor that I would n't read anything in it with regard to Cue Card - suspect either ground, the fact that he'd only run eight days previously or a combination of the two were to blame.
Nicholls horse clearly useful though and may be one of first to emerge to give Cue Card something to think about. |
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Re Dunraven Rease, it may well have been one of those reasons, but, it could be that CC is not as good as we all think. I aint saying he aint, I'm just stating that Dunraven has run a stinker and has not advertised the CC form
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Nicky Hendersun is bringing on
BINOCULAR Slowly to the BOIL For a Cheltenham assault  |
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Although some of you may have already known, I know know that Burton Port is a serious horse
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Binocular can't ever be trusted at a short priuce and is no Istabraq
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Big Bucks doesnt need Ruby
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Colin Tizzard is not a one horse wonder (in case anyone didn't already know that) but he does need to keep his feet on the ground. Mount Oscar ensured a good day for me yesterday and the novice that won at Chepstow looked very promising. Just hope he doesn't overface his horses now that they are going so well. Cue Card could have a very hard race in defeat in the Bula and leave the Supreme behind as well.
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Nick Williams is a brilliant trainer (we knew that bit) and now has contenders for both Champion Chase and Gold Cup.
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I thought Finian's Rainbow jumped well enough for his first chase.
It must be back to hurdles for Celestial Halo. Kid Cassidy was mighty impressive in the nov hurdle. Peddlers Cross looked very good and we still don't know how good he will be cos he has never been beaten yet. That said, NJH will be preparing Binocular for March and will no doubt come on a ton for the race. He reminds me of Rooster Booster in that he thrives in a strongly run 2ml and he will only really get that in the CH. Will Big Bucks ever get beat over 3mls in a hurdle race. Doubt it. He looked awesome, as usual. Why did I not bet Diamond Harry? I know he has some engine but I thought his jumping at pace would find him out. On the contrary. He was fantastic and, as Jodami proved, he can go on and win the GC. I don't think Burton Port will ever beat DH at levels. Another great weight carrying performance from Denman but I think that is his strength, giving weight to lesser animals in h'caps. |
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burton port already has beaten Diamond Harry at levels
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But with 11-10 on their backs would the form be reversed in the Gold Cup? Burton seems more of a stayer than Harry.
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Yes when DH jumped poorly in the RSA but it wont ever beat it, to win a race, ever again.
BP looked more of a stayer yesterday as it made up ground over the last 2 fences but at the festival, over the same trip and on lively ground, DH will finish in front again |
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Still don't think either will beat all three of Denman, Kauto and the Champ IC in March. Denman at the weights was far and away the winner yesterday.
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peddlers cross should now be considered a champon hurdle contender
tocca ferro is one to follow burton port is better than i thought big bucks has a leg in each corner still nothing in the hennessy screamed out gold cup winner to me so now im awaiting cooldine/joncol to show me something nto |
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Looking forward to seeing how Mikael D,Haganeut gets on on. Apparently schooled well and sure vive heard he might go for the Gold Cup this year. Ive had a small punt on here at 35s. I can,t see which 2nd season chasers are going to trouble the old guard as Denman came out best at the weights yesterday. Kauto and denman both 11 next year. Imperial Commander 10 to.
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IC still very much the one to beat in the Gold Cup, his form solidly franked by Denman's performance. If he'd missed out Aintree, as his owner wanted him to do, IC would be quite a bit shorter for the GC at the moment, imo.
He trounced Denman in this year's GC still staying on strongly at the finish to my eye. If the cut leg keeps him out of the King George, that will be a blessing in disguise, I think. It's to be hoped there are no long term repercussions from the cut - if he makes a full recovery and, even better, goes straight to the GC, I can't see what will beat IC. |
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giani ... where did you hear Mikael D'Haguenet might go for the Gold Cup, can you paste the link up here? thanks
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Denman comes out best at the weights from Saturday but can you take 26lb and 15 lengths literally? IC beat Denman fair and square in the Gold Cup and Denman will be 11yo on Jan 1. I still think that IC is the value in the Gold Cup market.
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Eric, heard Dave Duggan mention it on the irish angle on at the races. But with Willie Mullins, don,t think anyone will know till 5 minutes before the race lol.
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Steeple you do accept Kauto Star fell in the Gold Cup, Imperial Commander has yet to beat him when completing. Don't understand how you can say a line like "I don't know what will beat him". When Kauto has only been beaten once when completing in Grade 1 chases.
I do accept that it's unlikely any of these 2nd season chasers can improve enough to trouble the big three and I see no reason for Denman to reverse form with IC. So it's a straight head to head between Kauto and IC. That is why I'm very tempted by the 4/1 nrnb on offer for both. Dutching them gives 6/4 and that prices them at a 40% chance of success. Ignorning the benefit of one becoming a non runner (ie stake back plus contraction on the other). I can't see how they will only take up 40% of the book on the day. |
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Kauto has only won 1 of his last 4 runs at trips above 3 miles with just a 40% win ratio all runs above 3 miles.
In addition he has fallen in 40% of his runs around Chelts blundered in 20% and won 40%. They were when he was at his peak and not an ageing horse as he is now. |
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giani thanks. Think it is unlikely myself hope we see him strut his stuff in one of the novice races would be something to look forward to.
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I knew you'd fuking chime in kirk. Nobody gives a crap about your opinions have you not learnt that yet? Now get lost. Steeple has opinions I and others respect.
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id say a gc bet for kauto now and lay after the kg would be wise or just a bet on him in the kg. cant see him beaten there myself
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Really, he seems pretty clueless like you imo. aka both of you are not, he has v incisive insight into a horse and its qualities/ideal conditions ... he is in no way a fanboy like you and sees things objectively rather than subjectively like you. Your Grade 1 stat is meaningless compared to the ideal conditions for a horse.
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I agree with SteepleChasing re Imperial Commander think he will win the Gold Cup again as the conditions are ideal for him.
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Fair point on Kauto CV, but I think the demolition job IC did on Denman (making the general assumption that Denman was back to his best that day) was much more convincing than Kauto's trouncing of a still below par Denman in his 2nd Gold Cup.
I know you're a massive KS fan, much more so than I am (except at Kempton, where I think he's the best I've seen, and is massive value at 11/8 for the KG). |
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eric, with all due respect, i think that cvb is entitled to his views and the fact that they are different to you is probably not a reason to abuse him
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Well that is a particularly stupid statement when you read his opening gambit to me ... thicko.
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it has obviously started before this thread eric and giving the nature of your reply to me i find it understandable that cvb has issues with you. id say hes probably not alone either as others on different threads emphasise
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At the time I did n't think Denman had run at his best in the 2010 Gold Cup renewal but I was judging him by his 2008 standards - with the best will in the World it's difficult to see him reproducing that level so likely IC will have the call on him if they both complete.
Kauto harder to fathom but was n't the fall partly due to a mistake because IC had him 'at it'? There's always Tidal Bay of course [;)] |
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But it's fair to say Kauto remains unexposed even to this day. He's only ever been beaten once when completing by Denman and that was back in 2008.
IC is excellent fto, while Kauto most certainly isn't, so I think Kauto beating him in the Betfair last year gives me the belief Kauto would improve more than IC. Also it's fair to believe Nicholls looked at the betfair entries and felt he could leave some work to be done and still win the race. While NTD would be aiming IC at the race, knowing this was the last chance he'd have his horse be underrated. Regression is an unknown of course as is how many lbs IC is better at Celtenham. But look at it this way, I was expecting a 10l win for Kauto from Denman in March. Still it's between the two for me. I really don't know who will win between the two. So can see serious value in the 6/4 available by dutching them. Anyway, I should take heart you don't fancy Kauto. You're always underestimating him mate  |
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* to expand on the 3rd paragraph
Nicholls could easily of underestimated IC that day, but most certainly not the other way round. |
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Anyway, I should take heart you don't fancy Kauto. You're always underestimating him mate
But even the law of averages says that one day I'll get it right! |
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True, but if you're right this time at least I'll be a winner given I'm backing both :)
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And I would never wish to deny you that pleasure- good luck |