Chepstow is an undulating track imo,Sintonian.

Boilsports ffs

it's not like Cheltenham or Punchestown, for example, Flyingbolt.imo

2011: Fred Winter 
2012: World Hurdle
2013: World Hurdle
2014: Sun Alliance

sintonioan

chepstow is an undulating track.

@The Sawyer

hmmmmmmm...You're right - I don't do the entries!! They change age on Jan 1st don't they...

This has highlighted a weakness with the Festival programming - there isn't a non handicap hurdle for these forward French types him other than Champion or World... nothing over 2.5 miles...and if the owners want to make use of him and fill their boots between now and March he'll get crucified by the handicapper...

County?
Pertemps Final?

Coral Cup, I guess ...  but it could be the Champion by default

Just to be provocative... would there actually be any theoretical reason why he couldn't run in the bumper??!!

Could skip Cheltenham and go straight to Aintree for the Dick Francis over 2.5 miles, but I couldn't see a Punchestown race for him either...

So perhaps after ALL of that it's time to take a price now for the Arkle???

if he were mine i would go for the CH.Why not? Could be anything,no point in having regrets.Not getting carried away,after all he beat a load of stayers yesterday and Zaynar was beaten after a mile!! But he was very impressive,and he has to be tried at the top level now imo.I would imagine they know he aint going to beat BB,so CH has to be the target imo

What have I missed?  No entries listed yet on RP...

yep,makes complete sense to me.

I was astounded by Silviniaco Conti's win at Ascot on Saturday - in fact, I got up at 5am this morning to watch the race again to make sure I wasn't seeing things!

Not normally a trainer who entertains angels unawares, which would strike a note of caution for me

I'm personally not sure that what Nicholls thinks of the horse is particularly relevant in this case. What he has done on the racecourse is more important and he has looked terrific.

Obviously he does very little at home.

Just laid him for the Champion to my maximum at 11.5, only to see him down to 10.5 What's going on? Ascot had no relation to a Champion Hurdle; Karabak and Restless Harry not top class even over their preferred longer trip and Zaynar running appallingly, yet still not far adrift, giving weight. Yes, SC is a lovely prospect, but not in a Champion Hurdle. The trainer is clearly surprised and I expect more realistic targets to come into view after the Bula. There are always horses who come into the Champion picture early after early season wins (Zaynar and Detroit City being obvious examples) yet who are clearly not going to be contenders. SC is the second this season, following Peddlers Cross, and I'd be surprised if either runs in the Champion, let alone wins it.

If you were constructing a book on the CH market, I would say, all things considered, Silviniaco Conti is a very layable price now. If you were just looking to take him on as one horse in isolation (as opposed to constructing a book), I think personally I might want to wait until I had seen (thought I'd seen) some clear weakness in the horse as regards his CH chances.

Detroit City and Zaynar both won some races impressively before their respective tilts at the CH, yet in both cases it was also clear that each could hit flat spots and neither possessed the ability to engage top gear with the ease typical of a CH winner.

SC may not have beaten much, and he hasn't been tested yet even to the extent that Zaynar and Detroit City were at the same stage in their CH preparations, but visually at this early stage I have not seen anything to put me off the horse. He looks as smooth as silk over the obstacles, though for the most part he is yet to jump at typical CH pace in a large field. Temperament looks good; travels and quickens well; probably reasonably versatile in how he might be ridden. These are clearly strong qualities to have for any horse being touted for the CH.

For sure, he still has it all to prove.  But equally doubters don't have much to hold against him at this stage either, other than that he is a short price currently for what he has achieved by comparison with other proven CH class horses in the ante-post betting, most notably Khyber Kim, but also arguably horses like Go Native and Solwhit too.

My main reservation about SC would be, as with Clerks Choice, we have only really seen them shine at a time in the season when there is often a considerable disparity between those that are really ready to run (or may have had a flat or summer jumps campaign)and those that are on a slow burner. The Bula should be much more informative about prospects for the CH, as it has been so often in previous seasons.

I think they take the view he could of won by much further.

At Ascot on Saturday, you could hear a pin drop... The crowd were stunned by how easily Silviniaco Conti won. Noel Fehily did not touch the horse. I think my mother could have won on it, whilst carrying my father, sister and brother. Fortunately, I backed Silviniaco each time since the horse started out at Bangor. You will get odds against again in the great company that it will race with. This horse will do again what it did on Saturday so save your pennies or notes for it.

Desmond does make a good point. The markets do indeed panic and do often run frightened. Equally if a horse loses, people say it's finished- like at Cheltenham, everyone around me in the Gold Cup was saying "Ah Kauto, you're finished mate" and "Donkey!". Crazy stuff.

Backed Silviniaco Conti on a standard day at the races a couple of months back when I went to Bangor. Had a little more at Chepstow and more still at Ascot.

Supreme animal and the fact Ruby hasn't even had a go yet excites me hugely

10/1 is a price imo

Really gutted i didn't get stuck in to the tasty odds before the coral. But i'm thinking its time to back him now before he wins easily at cheltenham when up against Menorah and Cue Card, bah 10/1 it is.

Hi Cyclops. I think you are right that in calculations about the CH market a premium needs to be given to horses that have clearly displayed the qualities associated with a specialist two mile hurdler. Binocular demonstrated those qualities very well in the CH last season. He sets a very clear standard on the back of that run for what the promising younger horses need to be able to do if they are to join the top table and make a lasting mark in the two mile division.

I would agree that it is easy to underestimate how difficult it can be to drop back to two miles in good company over hurdles for horses that initially raced over, and appeared more suited by, the intermediate distance. A lot of talented horses won't make that transition effectively and so I can see the sense of your strategy of betting against such horses as SC and PC, on that basis, as your edge into the market.

You certainly need an edge, as it is a tricky market to get right, I would say. Part of the reason for that, I think, is that the CH is such a unique test of both speed and stamina, that not surprisingly we have seen the race won in some quite contrasting styles over the years. Some of the renewals have opened up in ways that played to the strengths of the speedy horses (Sublimity, Binocular), other renewals had to be won with a good deal more grinding alongside the fast pace (Katchit and Brave Inca, would be examples of such in recent times). And then there was Hardy Eustace who was able to win in part through the benefit of being ridden in a very enterprising, tactically astute way.

Little details seem to determine the style in which the race is won each year. On balance, I would say the odds fall in favour of the high quality specialist two mile hurdler winning the higher percentage of renewals, which gives some encouragement for opposing the ones who ideally perhaps would be suited by a bit further or might be chasers in the making. Though, of course, the grinders (generally horses that might be equally at home over slightly further than two miles, while having enough basic speed to hang in there over the minimum trip)have had their share of victories in the CH. It often gets called a poor renewal when the grinders win, but that way of looking at it probably conceals more than it reveals about the nature of the race. Even the term 'grinders' is kind of damning with faint praise horses that actually often have a lot more about them than just sheer effort and staying power.

The pace profile of the race determines so much. Macs Joy was well primed to win in 2006, it being the only time really that his preparation for the race went reasonably well; unfortunately for Mas Joy, the German horse took them off at such a relentless pace, there was little chance in that particular field that anything other than a dour stayer (which Macs Joy wasn't) would prevail. Brave Inca, who won the race, ran in some ways like a 20f horse. His hurdling was no better than adequate, he hit a couple of flat spots. got outpaced and had to be rousted along by the fourth hurdle, and yet he ground his way back into it. The way the race unfolded handed the advantage that year to the strong stayer over the speedier horse who arguably was also the more fluent hurdler. The time of the race wasn't that far off the course record set by Istabraq on ground that was a bit livelier.

If SC turns out Hardy Eustace like in his talents, and PC can ape Brave Inca without the latter's lazy inclinations, that would make for a very interesting renewal in March, with Binocular having such a sharply contrasting style of running to the other two. So from that point of view I am kind of hoping those you have chosen to oppose initially are the wrong ones, though I think we have seen over the years that it often does make sense to take on the early steamers in the ante-post market, particularly the less experienced and tested horses.

aka, I agree with much of what you say, though one thing I've always thought about this race is that it's usually such a relentless test that you really need a horse that has at least shown itself capable of staying two and a half miles when you are looking for the winner...