Cheltenham Festival
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Why so quiet about Master Minded?
Why so quiet about Master Minded?
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Interesting post Steeplechasing.
I can't agree about that ground description though - if you remember it was the year of the storms when there were eight race cards on the Thursday and Friday, and there were some strange results that year, as mentioned in my post above. The Champion Hurdle and Gold Cup were both absolute wars of attrition, with both races won by the horse you would have picked out at the start as the one likely to want it the most, and in Katchit's case at least, the form has never been repeated again. For me this was because of the conditions. I've no idea why, but some horses just couldn't act on the going at that meeting, imho, and my reading of it, fwiw, is that this is why Voy Por ran so badly in that QM, and why Master Minded's performance looked so devestating. As for Voy Por, I take your point, but it's worth noting that his career record in Championship two mile races at the Cheltenham Festival reads 112. What's really sad is that 08 QM changed Voy Por's whole career - connections ducked a rematch with Master Minded in the QM the following year, and on his fine second to Imperial Commander in the Ryanair at the same meeting he surely would have given Master Minded loads to think about had his connections been braver - I for one was devestated at that decision, as I thought he would have been a fantastic value bet at the likely odds to beat Master Minded, in what ended up little short of a one horse race... |
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Fair enough millhouse, I think the key sticking point between us is much more the value of VPU's form than the ground issue. Once again, a wonderfully consistent horse at his best (over 20f in my view), but those Cheltenham figures you post are devalued, I think, by the actual form of the races, especially the QM victory.
I feel for the horse in that he should have been retired before the end of last season. His jumping has gone under pressure and connections have been messing him around with trip, right-hand, left-hand theories etc when the horse owes them nothing. They owe him the dignity of preserving his memory as a high class and most consistent steeplechaser. I hope they see sense and find him a nice field somewhere and a comfortable box for the winter. |
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Anyone know how Paul Nicholls rates Master Minded relative to Azertyioup? The inference from most of his quotes relating to MM in the past are that he is the best 2 miler he has had, if he's some way above Azertuiop, then that possible must put him up with Moscow Flyer, if not above. Just the trainer's oppinion of course.
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neill d, with the two you mention being owned by the most 'sensitive' owners in his yard, I think Nicholls would do all he could to avoid trying to compare them . . . though someone might prove me wrong by posting a quote!
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Talk of Frankel's astonishing work on the gallops had our man reminiscing about the best he'd seen at his Ditcheat yard...
"Master Minded simply made Kauto Star - a dual Tingle Creek winner - look pedestrian." I was reading about Frankel's outstanding gallops ahead of Saturday's Dewhurst Stakes, and it got me wondering... what is the best piece of work I have seen at Ditcheat? Well, it has to be Master Minded's piece of work with Kauto Star two days before he won the Game Spirit. At that point, we didnt know what we had with Master Minded, who had only won a handicap chase off 145 at Sandown. But his work that day left Clifford Baker on Kauto Star. absolutely speechless - quite literally. Master Minded simply made Kauto Star - a dual Tingle Creek winner - look pedestrian. I have never seen a piece of work like it before or since. PAul nicholls... betfair. quite decent PN on betfair you could do alot worse....apparently MM has had a wind op. |
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Scoop6, with the greatest of respect, I'm sure you would agree that gallops mean absolutey nothing in the grand scheme of things.
If races were contested at three quarter pace without coming off the bit then Harchibald would probably have won five Champion Hurdles... |
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Agreed
I'd want to know the weights carried and the instructions to the jockeys before I put any credence on works reports |
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That clipit was taken the year MM won QMCC at the festival... just to show how good PN thought he was that year...
i was reporting that he had a wind op...  which from certain quarters, say they do not work???? |
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They just don't mean anything, unless it was a gallop over two miles at level weights with fences in front of them at racing pace.
It's a bit like judging who'll win the Olympic 100 meteres on the way they warm up jogging down the track... |
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I remember them quotes from PN before his first Queen Mother win. He also said he'd never had a horse improve so much between races as MM did.
Perhaps he did all his improvement in on go ? I still think he'll be back tbh. |
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* one go
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PFN's quote kind of confirms part of what I posted earlier:
As mentioned MM's huge reputation centres on his demolition of the field in his first QM. That was a stunning visual performance and undoubtedly his best; it was just his 4th run for the yard. his third completion, after easily dispensing with Hasty Prince at Sandown and VPU at Newbury: he was a horse on the up, getting maximum benefit from the impeccable set-up at Ditcheat - a real improver who reached his zenith on QM day. He was never quite the same after that first QM |
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^ agree
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i remember reading a quote from PFN after this years champion chase, where he said MM comes from a family who have peaked at an early age and decreased quite quickly. and he feared that might be happening to MM.
the breathing op might be a last throw of the dice |
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I have always thought this must be nonsense - that horses can be predetermined to wane in ability at an early age because of their breeding. Isn't it just that French-bred horses often peak sooner than English and Irish horses as they start jumping earlier? This often leaves good French-bred horses weighted up to the hilt when they are comparatively young, which leads to them failing to win for a while, which leads people to assuming they have regressed.
When you get real French-bred superstars like Kauto, they don't regress - they either hold their form or, in his case, carry on improving. As I said in the first post on this thread (I believe), my point regarding Master Minded is that he had excuses for one bad season but is still young enough to recapture his best. Kauto Star was written off by a huge number of people after he finished second in a Gold Cup and he has since gone on to prove his doubters incredibly wrong. As I've said all along, I am not sure if we will see Master Minded back to his best. But there is a good chance that he might bounce back. He is after all trained by someone who knows a thing or two about horses. Maybe the wind op is a last resort, but maybe it isn't. How could anyone second guess this? Let's just wait and see - hold back your judgement until MM has been out again. I hope we see him back to his old self on the track this season. |
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Meant to add that it would be interesting to know when that Nicholls' quote about fearing MM was on the downgrade was taken. I recall him saying a near identical thing about Kauto after his defeat in the Gold Cup of 2008 but that worry soon evaporated.
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Imo he's the only horse capable of demolishing the field, so the price is good. If they all run to their best, MM wins and it's a lottery behind him.
Such a fine line that separates say MM and big bucks who've both been odds on certs for their last 8 or 9 races. But ones had setbacks and maybe one bad day and the other didnt. The game spirit says to me hes not on the downgrade and it's still a huge horse to have on your side. all imo |
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Thats just it,i dont think he is capable now of demolishing the field.Big zeb is now a better horse imo.But keep touting MM,and ignore last season,fine with me.
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^ That's basically what it all comes down to, I agree. You have to either forgive MM last season - or at least be open minded to forgiving him that season - or you get behind Big Zeb after he was an impressive winner of the QM.
I am in the former camp, many are not. My beef with Big Zeb is that he ran a shocker in the Tingle Creek, when good jumping from his competitors left him out with the washing at a track that puts real emphasis on accurate fencing. He has always been a liability at his fences and for that reason I would not be at all surprised if he reverts to type in this year's QM. As an aside, it is slightly odd that Colm Murphy has another similar, talented two-miler in his care in the shape of Zaarito, who also seems not to have learned how to jump fences. |
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Is interesting for me to see if they decide to have a look at a longer trip with MM. He has been written off as a non stayer due to one failure over 20f at Aintree, in a race that came 3 weeks after he won his first QM, at a time when he was still a very young horse. For me the non performance that day could be put down to bounce or simply tiredness. Maybe he doesn't have the explosive pace he once had over 2 miles but when he won his first QM he looked like he was ready to go round again. If a step up in trip is successful at some point this season he could become a lively ditcheat contender for the GC
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Tom,i really hope most agree with you my friend.
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I wanted to post two points on this thread; one about MM being the youngest horse in this years QM and why people are so quick to think a lightly raced 7 year old is on the decline. And I also wanted to point out that Nicholls did not want to run MM in the 2009 game spirit (had it survived the snow) as he 'wanted him fresh to defend his crown' which, considering his hand was slightly forced to run him the 2010 game spirit (to 'find out where we are with him') may have helped to explain the QM performance.
but... Nicholls does seem really pessimistic about this horse doesnt he? As brandy pointed out, the immediate after race interviews are all about how the mares foals didnt train on and he'd always suspected MM might go the same way. For a trainer who often gives reasons for failure he hasnt made many positive noises about MM at all since last March. |
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We might only see the top 2 milers on very few occasions this season. Big Zeb is reportedly having a light campaign, geared to defending his title; Master Minded might only have one or two races prior to Cheltenham (should he make it); Tataniano is very ground dependent.
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JOCI, plans for Master Minded are Tingle Creek, Game Spirit and Queen Mother.
That came from Nicholls. |
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Yesterday's Haldon Gold Cup didn't exactly do a lot for the young brigade did it?
Possible excuses for Somersby (can jump better and didn't look completely fit), but the fact Twist Magic gave them all well over a stone and nearly won suggests the up-and-comers still have a lot of improving to do to beat those established at the top of the tree. |
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Nicholls said in his stable tour he'll be starting over 2m3f at Ascot on November 20th. Will be interesting.
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He bounced in last years QM Chase imho
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cant resist throwing a couple of quid at him for gold cup at massive odds
Same story with Kauto who nobody believed would go further and look at him If Kauto suffers from the effects of that fall at Chelt Denman is in and out with his well publicised heart problem Maybe they could throw this into the mix at nearly 400/1 am prepared for the worst but maybe we might get a runner at further |
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It would be very interesting to see how Kauto would get on in the QM. His best 2 mile form would laugh at the rest of the current crop but don't suppose he will ever go back to shorter.
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tomdeane Joined: 29 Jul 04
Replies: 105 03 Nov 10 12:05 Yesterday's Haldon Gold Cup didn't exactly do a lot for the young brigade did it? Possible excuses for Somersby (can jump better and didn't look completely fit), but the fact Twist Magic gave them all well over a stone and nearly won suggests the up-and-comers still have a lot of improving to do to beat those established at the top of the tree. Still early days, but at this stage very hard to see where any strength in depth for the QM this season will come from. The current top four in the market look well ahead of any of the others. However, of those four, two come with concerns about them physically (Master Minded because of the wind op and loss of form last season and Captain Cee Bee for having bled significantly twice now in major races; Tataniano looks promising but remains largely unproven; and Big Zeb, though a very good horse and worthy champion, imo, has shown that tendency to lose concentration and make jumping errors as a consequence in some of his races. Reminds me of the QM market early season 2007/8 i.e. before Master Minded burst onto the scene and dramatically blew open the betting. If we are to get another one coming from left field to radically alter the QM market, as Master Minded did in 2008, I've not a clue who it might be at this stage. I would be struggling to put a case forward for Long Run as a dark horse for the QM, but maybe it is worth keeping the door slightly open for the possibility that this talented horse might have been better off in the Arkle than the RSA last season, and that he could still be a little unexposed in terms of exactly what he might be able to achieve over two miles in top company. I've no confidence at all that Long run could make into a top two miler. My point is more that if Long Run did show any promise over 16-20f this season in good company, he is one whose price for QM could drop dramatically from the very long odds available at present. Any hint from Henderson that he might target Long Run at the shorter distances later in the season, would then shake up the QM market more than most things I could imagine happening in that market this season. |
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^ Interesting, especially after Saturday. Long Run is a horse I have never really taken to, but he is plainly very talented and there is something about him that suggests he could well improve for a testing two miles. Would surely be a better option than the Gold Cup as a six-year-old. Could very well be a good shout.
But, most interesting to me and some of his other fans is Master Minded's return at the weekend. I don't think 2m3f will be a problem to him and would expect him to win well at ascot, really. The comments of connections in the build-up have been notably low key, but I get the impression they don't quite know what to expect. |
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Well, what do we think after Saturday?
Have to admit my own personal opinion is that the jury remains out - he could easily go on from this but I was not 100% convinced he finished the race with as much in the tank as some believe. It would have been interesting to see what would have happened if poor old Alberta's had stood up. |
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I thought he looked like a previous champ back in love with what he does best, flying over fences quickly and amazingly economically, and although I'm sure Alberta's would have given him summat to think about, if you'd have to back/lay both just before the fence AR fell at, I'd be backing MM. Certainly as long as there's some decent juice in the ground come March I'd be hesitant, if not feeling somewhat foolhardy, taking him on in the QM.
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Now I am convinced he is back to his best. Good opportunity for QM ante-post players to lay off now with the other major pretenders not having had the chance to advance their claims.
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