Cheltenham Festival

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11 Oct 10 13:10
Date Joined: 23 May 03
| Topic/replies: 20,286 | Blogger: deadloss's blog
Entered at Kempton on Sunday.
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Report eric_morris December 12, 2010 12:12 PM GMT
Bumer winners poor record another reason why Cue Card is up against it in a Supreme Novices let alone a Champion Hurdle. He does hurdle well though and think he can win the Supreme to dent that stat.
Report Wicketd December 12, 2010 12:27 PM GMT
remember looking at the facts a few months back and i think only 5 horses that won the bumper have ended up in the supreme, with one winner. cue card's run yesterday was ridiculously good for a novice. looked to be travelling all over them too. the positive is that he'll have learnt a huge amount and that experience should see him well in the supreme. Much more confident in his supreme chances how he's had a harder race and been off the bridle.
Report aka December 12, 2010 12:51 PM GMT
Eric_Morris wrote: "The Supreme is by no means a walk-over for him they will need to judge it tactically spot on or he will be beaten in that. We saw what Menorah did in the race last season can he do the same?"

I think that point is well made. Horses with good flat speed are a big danger in the SN if they can travel through the race well, as the early speed in the SN is often not stamina sapping enough to draw the finish out of the quicker horses. In some ways, you could make an argument for saying Cue Card would be better served by the likely faster pace in the CH, though taking other factors into consideration I think the SN route is probably more suitable for him this year.
Report .Marksman. December 12, 2010 1:11 PM GMT
I don't think it is really a case of him finding nothing off the bridle.  He seemed to be staying on one paced at the finish.  Perhaps he would be better at a longer trip again.  As a rule of thumb, a 2 mile bumper horse (and a stayer from the flat) will be best suited by 2 1/2 miles over hurdles and 3 miles over fences.  I think that, this time next year, he will be running in 3 mile novice chases.
Report red and white December 12, 2010 1:23 PM GMT
"Cue Card is likely to head straight to the Cheltenham Festival without another run after confirming he is in the big league with a fine performance on Saturday."
Will be entered in Champion and Supreme and a decision will be made nearer the time. Sounds sensible.
Report aka December 12, 2010 1:27 PM GMT
Yes, Cue Card didn't really get chance to show what he could do off the bridle yesterday. Essentially, he was beaten by a horse that showed a superior turn of foot on the day. Menorah quickly put the race to bed when he accelerated past them going to the last hurdle. We didn't get to see a long, closely fought driving finish of the kind that would have tested how much extra Cue Card is able to find off the bridle.

Cue Card is a comparatively narrow horse. He is the kind that Mordin would say is likely to be best fresh and needs long rests between his races. That may be another point to consider when assessing his performance yesterday.
Report red and white December 12, 2010 1:39 PM GMT
It's a bit like the stock market isn't it? Emotional over-reactions. I like the idea that they're letting the dust settle now they've proved he's a contender. I repeat that I think Menorah deserves to be favourite for the big race as he's performed well at Cheltenham three times in a row and has improved each time. That applies equally well to Cue Card who is a year younger and potentially open to more improvement. If a horse's ultimate ability can be judged on one race as Alvarado suggests, then it would have been pointless Diamond Harry turning up at Newbury after the RSA, Binocular in the Champion last year etc. etc. and you can go back as long as you want. That's racing. The best horse on the day wins.
Report ReaseHeath December 12, 2010 1:40 PM GMT
Genuinely don't know the answer to this - which was the last Festival Bumper winner to win a championship race at a subsequent festival?

Indded, how frequently do horses who contest the bumper go on to win one of the four main raises at the festival?
Report red and white December 12, 2010 2:56 PM GMT
It wouldn't be difficult to look it up if you're that interested. I suspect you'll find a bumper winner has never run in one of the four championship races. Dato Star was entered in the Champion but was injured in his trial. You'll probably also find Montelado won the Supreme Novices Hurdle the year after his bumper in a faster time than the Champion Hurdle, Florida Pearl the Sun Alliance Chase and Monsignor the Sun Alliance Hurdle. That's as much as I carry in my head. I'm sure I'd remember if there was anything else of note as I study the bumper form every year. Like every other race at the Festival the quality of the race goes up and down. Last year's renewal threw up an exceptional horse.
Report geoff m December 12, 2010 3:04 PM GMT
Monsignor won the bumper then Sun Alliance Hurdle
Florida Pearl Sun Aliiance Chase
Montelado Supreme
Report ReaseHeath December 12, 2010 3:34 PM GMT
Thanks gents - don't get me wrong red and white - I'm a big fan of Cue Card and - if you take away the hype - yesterday's run enhanced his credentials for me.
Report eric_morris December 12, 2010 3:44 PM GMT
Every years bumper apparently throws up an exceptional horse but how exceptional they are over hurdles says they are not exceptional enough to win a Champion Hurdle and this season will be no different imo. Dunguib will have a better chance than Cue Card in a Champion Hurdle though dont think he has the trun of pace on fast ground either.
Report red and white December 12, 2010 4:43 PM GMT
Your first sentence is written in gibberish mr underscore morris so no comment. The second isn't backed up by any evidence. I think Dunguib should be chasing as his jumping style is more suited to fences than hurdles.
Report .Marksman. December 12, 2010 4:53 PM GMT
Besides the Supreme and CH, he is also going to be entered in the Neptune.  This could be a sensible option as he has already shown that he stays the longer distance.
Report Monsieur Bond December 12, 2010 5:14 PM GMT
I hope Cue card goes for the Supreme as he would be a cert, however if he does go for the Champion and is buried in the pack rather than asked to race so prominently then I really can see him getting closer to Menorah, he was racing from a long way out and the way the race was run from the top of the hill suited Menorah who just bided his time and then kicked after the others had carried him into the race.
Report red and white December 12, 2010 5:35 PM GMT
I see where you're both coming from and it has crystallised an idea I hadn't quite firmed up on. Despite someone on here saying he showed nothing off the bridle yesterday, I thought he was staying on well at the death. He either wants a faster pace with some cover in the Champion to help him settle before turning it on down the hill, or if connections feel he hasn't shown the necessary physical development over the next few months to go the CH route this year, the extra distance of the Neptune would not be a problem. I think that would be the better of the two novices for him.
Report Alvarado December 12, 2010 7:13 PM GMT
Report eric_morris December 12, 2010 7:30 PM GMT
With Menorah there is a lot more to come, he still has tremendous scope for improvement which must be frightening for Binocular's connections. When you compare 4s Menorah with 5s Peddlers Cross you know where the value doesnt lie.

Controversial but I dont think Cue Card will turn out to be top class as he doesnt have the turn of foot of a Champion ... think yesterday told us that much earlier than it would have taken to suss if connections had followed the novice preps. Must have a great chance in the Supreme but dont fancy him amongst the seniors in future unless they allow him time to develop that kick amongst novices if there is going to be one.
Report Can't Catch Me December 12, 2010 8:11 PM GMT
Cant believe anyone could write CC off afetr that run?!

The horse still didnt settle that well. He stayed on again well at the end. He has a full year to mature like Menorah has. Obviously its a guess how we will continue to develop and mature but he's still well on course to be a future Champion Hurdler.

I agree with red and white about the Neptune, and might get lucky with my AP bet on this race.
Report eric_morris December 12, 2010 8:14 PM GMT
We'll see.
Report eric_morris December 12, 2010 8:16 PM GMT
He is being pitched too high too early, that isnt allowing a novice horse to develop in my understanding.
Report Alvarado December 12, 2010 9:53 PM GMT
i never ever once believed he was this great wonderhorse and never ever believed he could win the champion hurdle ever and i saw nothing yesterday to change my mind

menorah YES
cue card NO
Report Far From Trouble December 12, 2010 9:57 PM GMT
Cue Card's run yesterday was comfortably better than anything Dunguib put in pre-supreme, and Dunguib wasn't far away

Cue Card is already good enough to win most Supremes imo
Report Alvarado December 12, 2010 10:00 PM GMT
exposed now
Report ReaseHeath December 12, 2010 10:16 PM GMT
^ so there's no further improvement in a 4yo with 5 career starts, only 3 over hurdles and two of those three arguably short of his optimum trip?

Poppycock to state he's exposed, frankly.
Report Can't Catch Me December 12, 2010 10:37 PM GMT
Poppycock is generous!

I think the horse will have learnt more yesterday than in any run he has had.
Report duffy December 12, 2010 11:48 PM GMT
i would have liked for cue card to have won but looking at the bigger picture long term for the horse....getting beat 5 lengths off levels in only his 3rd race and 1st real test against a leading fancy for a champion hurdle isn't at all bad......and if anyone wants to crab the run in any way will in turn be crabbing what menorah achieved yesterday also.
Report Alvarado December 13, 2010 12:51 AM GMT
not really  menorah destroyed him and was value for at least not against cue card i like him and yes he ran well better than i expected and he is probably a genuine 155-160 horse which is a good level but he is claerly NOT this wonder horse what people made him out to be and weather u like it or not he is vulnerable in the supreme novices
Report Brooksielad December 13, 2010 12:59 AM GMT
alvarado you make my eyes bleed :S the 2nd and 3rd will go onto better things than Menorah...(nap)
Report Alvarado December 13, 2010 2:11 AM GMT
can u get better than winning the champion hurdle 4 years o the spin
Report buddeliea December 13, 2010 8:35 AM GMT
As a 4yr old he should be in one of the novice races imo.
If you take a look at 4yr olds that ended up in the CHurdle,it dont make great reading for their future.Look at what Katchit has done since,also cel Halo,Crack away Jack,Detroit City,and Binocular has been rather in and out.
Now it may just be coincidence,but their looks to me a case of trainers trying to do too much too soon.Massive difference between a CHurdle with tough streetwise horses,and a Bumper,supreme or Triumph,and i wonder if these 4 year olds are ready for that sort of campaign.
Report Harchibaldy December 13, 2010 2:43 PM GMT
Eric - can you tell me your idea of a horse with a turn of foot? I've read several times (even on other threads, and made comments, that you've not responded to) your opinions on this, and you've been critical of Go Native, Dunguib & Cue Card. I disagree with you (they can't always produce every race) and there may well be more I'd like to hear about. FWIW, I think you talk a lot of sense in the main and I agree with you on most issues, though everyone's entitled to their opinion. I got the Bula wrong the other day as I didn't think Menorah had the 'gears' of the other principals - he's proved me wrong in spades as I've never seen him quicken like that before. I felt a bit better about it when Hobbs confessed to being staggered by that too. PS - my idea of a Champion Hurdler without a potent turn of foot would be Katchit or Punjabi. As for the contenders, I'd nominate Solwhit (obvious really, though grinders & stayers fare well in the race) though before the Bula I'd have said Menorah! At least I'm no after-timer!
Report red and white December 13, 2010 7:20 PM GMT
You've hit the nail on the head when you say you didn't appreciate Menorah could quicken the way he did. He surprised his own trainer. That is after 8 runs over hurdles. Underscore morris says Cue Card will never have a turn of foot and Alvarado beams in claiming Cue Card has now gone as far as he can. Their opinions are based on three runs so I take them with a pinch of salt.
Personally I think yesterday's form will prove strong and all three horses will improve. I think SC and Cue card are being underestimated as received wisdom says PN can't train two mile hurdlers and five year olds shouldn't run in the Champion. How much will each improve? How did the bizarre weather affect their respective preparations in the two weeks before yesterday's race? Only time will tell.
I think Tizzard has put himself in a good position with some shrewd planning this season. In three well chosen races he's proved his horse can jump, stay two and a half, run quickly over two miles around Cheltenham and compete with the best. He can give his horse a break and prepare him for Cheltenham with all options open.
Report unclepuncle December 13, 2010 7:47 PM GMT
I wouldn't have said Hardy Eustace or Brave Inca had a potent turn of foot either - they were just very tough, genuine and classy - which is why they beat the appraently better travelling but soft speed horses like Rooster, Harchibald and Macs Joy.
Report eric_morris December 13, 2010 7:50 PM GMT
Harchibaldy ... his turn of foot didnt surprise me at all as he has shown it before in lesser company. It was this race that really opened my eyes to him and the tremendous pace he has. He absolutely pulverised them at Kempton extending all the way to the line. Kempton is not a stayers track yet he had an easy powerful kick which stood out. Couldnt believe he lost next time think Hobbs may have been giving him a run before the Supreme where we all saw that kick again showing he could also do it up the hill on a staying track. That's what you want from a Champion Hurdler he has pace at any track imo. The others dont extend as easily as him in a finish and have less gears. Think Binocular has a big task to beat Menorah, a horse who has been under-estimated so far. If Dunguib had done what Menorah has recently the hype would be unreal.

Saturday December 26 2009
Kempton Park 12:45 - Result - Bonus25 Novices' Hurdle
£16000 added, 4yo plus, 2m, Class 2, £10019 penalty, 8 ran
Going: Good to Soft, Soft in places
Winning Time: 3m 59.9s
Pos. Draw
Dist. Horse Wt Jockey Trainer Age SP
1    Menorah (IRE)  11-5  R Johnson  P J Hobbs  4 7/2 
  tracked leaders, not fluent 2nd, led just after 3 out, drew clear approaching last, impressive opened 4/1 touched 4/1 
2   12 Bellvano (GER)  11-8  A P McCoy  N J Henderson  5 8/11 f
  held up in rear, headway 4 out, chased winner after next, soon ridden to challenge, one pace opened 8/11 touched 8/11 £800-£1000 £400-£500 £1600-£2200 £800-£1100 (x4) £727-£1000 £436-£600 £400-£550 £363-£500 (x2) 
3   19 Dr Livingstone (IRE)  11-8  J A McCarthy  C R Egerton  4 20/1 
  soon in rear, slow 2nd, not fluent 3 out, some late headway, never able to challenge opened 20/1 touched 20/1 £7500-£300
Report Harchibaldy December 13, 2010 9:37 PM GMT
Eric - you know the Kempton form (when Menorah quickened well) is a light year from top-drawer so that's easily dismissed. I was so surprised by what he showed at Cheltenham and I'm puzzled by his SUPREMACY over two potential superstars. Is he really THAT good? He's continued to surprise me and I won't be underestimating him again. I can't believe Cue Card & (especially) Silviniaco Conti aren't top-class and by that rationale, Menorah's produced Champion Hurdle form, albeit without being tested by any of last season's protagonists. FWIW, I think this'll prove rock-solid form and I'll be looking forward to seeing the fifth home, Cristal Bonus as he's already shown high-class form in France. Clerks Choice has looked more than useful too which adds credence to the form. PS - did the race (from just before the turn) remind anyone else of Best Mate's third Gold Cup? I know it was a chase and over much further but Menorah was electric at a crucial stage - like a real professional.
Report eric_morris December 13, 2010 9:43 PM GMT
You arelooking for hints small and large when betting antepost and experience told me that was a really good performance at Kempton, he can do it at staying tracks as well. You make a call antepost based on experience and gut feeling it isnt pounds and lengths that is for race after-timers called 'ratings experts' who still cant get it right after the event a lot of the time.
Report ribotman December 13, 2010 10:06 PM GMT
I like the way menorah strode to the line in bula.
he covers an enormouse amount of ground in his faster paces,with a beautiful stride pattern.
i have already backed pedlers and nothing will out game him but i have seen the light with menorah,and ithink nr no bet 4/1 with laddies is a decent price.
Report unclepuncle December 15, 2010 12:33 PM GMT
Zaidpour looked much more of a Supreme winner to me - the Champion Hurdle may be the easier option for Cue CardLaugh
Report Alvarado December 15, 2010 4:40 PM GMT
still think cue cards a certainty for the supreme ?
zaidpour is a monster and there will be plenty of others to come out yet cue card will be doing well to get placed let alone win
Report buddeliea December 15, 2010 5:46 PM GMT
Was that a great race today then?? million miles from Cue Cards race on Saturday,i know that.
Report Wicketd December 15, 2010 6:31 PM GMT
christ, alvarado slating cue card's form with dunraven but is happy to label zaidpour a monster after beating that field. Laugh
Report buddeliea December 15, 2010 6:58 PM GMT
He did it impressively today,but honestly he needs to face a decent horse before showering him with accolades such as i am reading on here.
Calm down lads!!
Report Alvarado December 15, 2010 9:40 PM GMT
surely there genuine 130 horses aint they
Report Brooksielad December 16, 2010 9:21 AM GMT
Avocado thinks Cue Card will be lucky to place in the Supreme yet thinks Menorah will win the champion hurdle...
Report red and white December 16, 2010 11:41 AM GMT
I've just watched Menorah's Kempton novice race. It seems to me that he was pulling readily clear of inferior horses that were already under pressure and I don't see how that 'turn of foot' was any different to what Cue Card showed in his previous race. Certainly it's nothing like the rapid acceleration Menorah produced against good horses on Saturday.
Report Alvarado December 16, 2010 2:08 PM GMT
Yes Next
Report red and white December 16, 2010 5:46 PM GMT
Next what? How about writing something to demonstrate you have at least one brain cell. I haven't seen any evidence so far but hope springs eternal and we have been evolving for a few million years after all.
Report Alvarado December 16, 2010 6:27 PM GMT
menorah machine
Report red and white December 22, 2010 11:14 AM GMT
Fair enough. I'd like to see him ahead of the Binocular we saw last year anyway. Credit to Binocular for his win but I don't believe he's a two mile superstar as I think he beat a lot of stayers last year. The force is currently with Menorah and he has his own thread.
Back on topic I think Cue Card is a bad bet for the supreme. There's no doubt in my mind that if connections think he's showing the speed of a two miler they'll go for the champion, and if not they'll go for the old Sun Alliance, a race for which they can't seem to settle on a name these days.
Report red and white December 22, 2010 11:19 AM GMT
If he was put in the longer race it looks like he'll be up against a lot of the horses he galloped all over last March. As for the betting in the Champion Hurdle it's a joke. People are taking half Cue Card's price for Dunguib. I'd love to see that horses over fences where he belongs.
Report red and white December 24, 2010 11:51 AM GMT
Cue Card now set to have another prep. before the end of January. Likely targets are the Haydock trial or the 2 and 1/2 mile novice trial at Cheltenham.
Report GI MAC December 27, 2010 9:58 AM GMT
4 b g King's Theatre - Wicked Crack.
Unbeaten both bumper outings last season culminating in Festival bumper at Cheltenham. Won novice hurdle debut impressively beating Dear Sam 13 lengths at Aintree in October then beat Dunraven Storm just as easily at Cheltenham in early November. Rated 160 on that and far from disgraced when going into highest grade and finishing four and a half lengths second to Menorah in grade two hurdle at Cheltenham December 11. Now 159. An outstanding novice.

"He travelled and jumped very well at Cheltenham but to my mind he didn't finish his race behind Menorah - but he still ran a cracking race. The only thing I would say about that - and I would not take one thing away from Menorah - is that there were ten days before that race when our gallop was frozen and in that time Cue Card would have gone real fast four or five times. That's not an excuse just a fact. Most of the horses I ran around that time ran similar races. By the time we got on to Newbury and Exeter the horses had been fast three or four times and it showed in the results. On the day, Cue Card was beaten fair and square but I think we can have him a bit better. I came away from Cheltenham saying he wouldn't run again before the Festival but I rode him myself on December 18 and he was so well that it seems a long time to wait to run him again. It hasn't been discussed with his owner, Bob Bishop, but it's in my mind to give him another run towards the end of January before whichever race he goes for at Cheltenham. It's an option. It's 50-50 where he goes at Cheltenham, but we are looking forward to having him over fences. I don't think there are any ground concerns so long as it's safe."

Stable tour from 21/12/10
Interesting comments on the horses preparation before the Bula.
Report eric_morris December 27, 2010 11:24 AM GMT
Hogwash imo, watch the replay you can see how gutted Joe Tizzard was after the race he didnt even shake Johnson's hand he was expecting to win the race that's for sure but the horses acceleration was no match for Menorah's end of. Anyone not seeing that is kidding themselves. I dont think Cue Card will turn out top class as he travels well but then stays on at one pace at the close. Typical 2m speed merchants like Binocular and Menorah will always have the gears to run past him. Also think of the grinders Peddlers Cross would outbattle him he wouldnt be in the first 6 in the Champion Hurdle. Also has a big battle to win the Supreme imo looking a hot year but maybe he can win that against fellow novice Zaidpour?
Report Far From Trouble December 29, 2010 12:57 PM GMT
So nothing to beat then? Silly
Report eric_morris December 29, 2010 1:21 PM GMT
The Supreme is the right race for Cue Card hopefully this will help them in their decision.
Report red and white December 29, 2010 1:22 PM GMT
Zaidpour monster Alvarado?
Report red and white December 29, 2010 1:30 PM GMT
If you bang on about it often enough they might just listen to your sage advice and give you a run for your money, not. They can judge their own horse without worrying about Irish horses running on bad ground.
Report eric_morris December 29, 2010 1:56 PM GMT
Mullins said Zaidpour would love the ground today perhaps he doesnt need your advice on what is best for him.
Report ReaseHeath December 29, 2010 3:45 PM GMT
The horse that beat Zaidpour today is one of Mark Howard's 40 to follow and it was intimated that stable see him as long term successor to War of Attrition.

So First Lieutenant might be quite good too!
Report Catch Me ifyoucan March 2, 2011 11:40 PM GMT
Cue Card (40/17) , Spirit Son (13/2) , Sprinter Sacre (9) , Recession Proof (10) , Zaidpour (10) , Al Ferof (16) , Gibb River (20) , Hidden Universe (25) , Unaccompanied (25) , Marsh Warbler (33) , Rock On Ruby (33) , Day Of A Lifetime (35) , So Young (38) , Act Of Kalanisi (50) , Aikman (50) , Dunraven Storm (50) , Earlson Gray (50) , First Lieutenant (50) , Gagewell Flyer (50) , Magens Star (50)  - Others 50 or more
Report fearless punter March 4, 2011 2:53 AM GMT
According To Joe it's 2nd mortgage time...
Report Rondetto March 4, 2011 7:26 AM GMT
Joe should stick to selling Esso Blue horse is a rag and wins nothing.
Report Rondetto March 4, 2011 10:32 AM GMT
All this horse did is run in the same race as Menorah. The fact is he was getting 8lbs from Silviniaco Conti and beat him 1/2 length .

Silviniaco Conti showed just how little he appreciates the shorter trip when beaten 24 lengths by Mille Chief and people want to take 5/2 about him??

He'll find the Henderson duo and a few of these very bit as good or better than Silviniaco Conti and he won't be getting 8lbs either.

Get the Menorah stars out of your eyes and keep your money guys, Cue Card wins nothing.
Report Dark Destroyer March 4, 2011 10:35 AM GMT
All this horse did is run in the same race as Menorah. The fact is he was getting 8lbs from Silviniaco Conti and beat him 1/2 length

Your dislike for this horse is well documented. At least get your fact right.
Report Dr Martin Luther King March 4, 2011 12:27 PM GMT
The cheltenham race that CC was beaten by Menorah means absolutely nothing in th context of the supreme.

The only form to address is his Cheltenham festival bumper victory when, in a race run at proper championship pace, he totally destroyed the opposition in a manner of a high class animal. Add to thst the fact that he has since proved that he can jump at pace and make the right shape over a hurdle and excellerate away afterwards then you have a recipe that no other horse in the race can bring to the table.

Report Goretski March 4, 2011 1:28 PM GMT
The Doctor has a dream! Anyone backing this horse in this race at this price wants their head seeing to imo.
Report Gashboy13 March 5, 2011 1:32 AM GMT
The Champion Bumper form is terrible. Getting 7lbs all round from absolute rags (bar Al Ferof). His beating of Dunraven Storm much more influential on his chance.
Report Dr Martin Luther King March 5, 2011 7:20 AM GMT
Never worry what is in behind as it may just be a tree Laugh

Dont ignore the obvious either. There is a time to look outside the box but this isnt one of them.

Roll up your sleeves guys and bet like men. You dont get this type of opportunity very often. Blush

Will mak or break the week for many and CUE CARD bursting clear off the home bend is sure to set many a pulse a racing.

Good Luck Layers !! Backers, just keep smiling. Silly
Report eric_morris March 5, 2011 7:46 AM GMT
More a case of drawing clear with Cue Card imo Tizzard has to get the pace right and fully use his high cruising speed to wind it up.
Report Johnny The Guesser March 5, 2011 8:24 AM GMT
It troubles me that he found little off the bridle last time.

I'll be laying 2 out.
Report sj March 5, 2011 9:27 AM GMT
Did he find little off the bridle? For me there was pretty much the same distance between Menorah and himself when Menorah made his intial burst and at the line. Just think people are really disrespecting the 2nd fav for teh champion hurdle, greatwood and supreme novice winner of last year
Report Goretski March 5, 2011 9:40 AM GMT
Sj, he found nothing! zilch! nada! watch the race again and if that horse quickens when asked to in the home straight well then i'm jesus
Report Dark Destroyer March 5, 2011 10:53 AM GMT
Amen Cool
Report eric_morris March 5, 2011 10:58 AM GMT
Hope Tizzard doesnt try for a head in chest job as that will end up with face palms all around when he gets caught up the hill.
Report sj March 5, 2011 12:21 PM GMT
Thats fair enough gorestki, I take it the others behind found nothing as well?
Report Dr Martin Luther King March 5, 2011 1:00 PM GMT
That race is a complete red herring lads. 4furlong sprint. Ignore it.
Report Goretski March 5, 2011 1:02 PM GMT
Sj , Cue Card is swinging on the bit turning into the straight and the only one still on the bridle. Ask youself this, how far are Astracad and Cristal Bonus behind at this stage baring in mind both are be pushed along and Cue card is still on the bridle??? You can clearly see then Cue Card asked to quicken, now how far is he ahead of the two mentioned horses come the line?

To my eyes roughly bout the same distance he is when turning into the sraight on the bridle and both of those off it. So have the three of them quickened to the same level? imo he doesn't quicken but that is just mine, everyone else is entitled to theirs.
Report barnesy March 5, 2011 3:47 PM GMT
Not quickening and not finding are totally different imo Goretski
Report festivalfanatic March 5, 2011 6:33 PM GMT
I haven't heard any of the professionals say that Cue Card isn't the horse to beat. Geraghty still hasn't made his mind up on which to ride...which probably means there isn't a lot between them. It would be some feat to have 2 in the same yard capable of beating a very worthy favourite.
Report cats-eyes March 5, 2011 6:48 PM GMT
It is hard to look beyond him so start lumping it, your look back and say what a right mug i was not lumping that lol
Report call it a day March 5, 2011 6:51 PM GMT
I have been an avid Tizzard watcher since his point to point days. I can't ever remember him trying to win a race with horse's head in chest. I can envisage him getting there cruising at the top of the hill, then gradually seeing off all comers with a protracted run to the line. Hopefully the opposition will be toiling in its wake!!
Don't forget we are talking about a 9-4 chance, not an odds on shot. There is obviously more chance that the horse will lose than win.
Report Rondetto March 6, 2011 9:00 AM GMT
Dark Destroyer I am a bit lost at what you are saying about getting my facts right SC did give Cue Card 8lbs when he was beaten 1/w length into 3rd please explain.

Fetivalfanatic I think you'll find BG will definitely ride Spirit Son.

Can't believe how many people think Cue Card is something special. Willie Mullins and Nicky Henderson both think he's very beatable and have both nominated their runners as their best chance of a Cheltenham winner because they can see right through the hype.

You really should ask yourselves what has this horse done over hurdles to even deserve being favourite for such a good race as the Supreme.

Silviano Conti 3rd went on to finish 24 lengths behind Mille Chief, Crystal Bonus beaten 35 lengths by Grand Crus, Astracad beaten 21 lengths by Bob's Worth. Attaglance turned over at 1/2 fav at Market Rasen, Dungraven Storm last of 4 to Toubab.

Something had to finish 2nd to Menorah who couldn't have won any easier if he tried. Apart from that his form is rubbish for a Supreme Hurdle fav.

Compare that to what Dunguib had achieved last season and he found not one but 2 better than him. Wouldn't be me as I said before.
Report JOCI Club March 6, 2011 9:24 AM GMT
Rondetto Joined: 20 Jul 10
Replies: 123 06 Mar 11 09:00 
Dark Destroyer I am a bit lost at what you are saying about getting my facts right SC did give Cue Card 8lbs when he was beaten 1/w length into 3rd please explain.

Thought it was only 4lbs.
Report chief dan March 6, 2011 9:26 AM GMT
if u watched the race at chelt when menorah beat cc u would of seen the race was ran at an absolute crawl turning for home any number of horses could of won an deff didnt suit cc as he was pulling for so long an at the end of the race when menorah went past i expected cc to fold but he didnt an finished 2nd imo menorah had a better kick at the finish i dont know how people can knock cc after all in the supreme they are bound to go alot quicker which will suit cc an with course form on his side it will take 1 hell of a beast to beat him imo ,as for conti this horse obviously didnt run his race latest having to give weight to decent animals over a trip far to short this horse deff needs further an only got so close to cc at chelt cause of the very slow race so imo u cant compare that form anyone backing against cc are only looking for value an i cant believe cue card is 9/4- 5-2 cause he looks alot more solid than Dunquib last year an is much better price
Report Dark Destroyer March 6, 2011 10:45 AM GMT
      Menorah (IRE) 7/4F     5    11-4     Philip Hobbs    162    *    *   
Richard Johnson
Tracked leaders, jumped well, switched and led approaching last, ran on strongly, ridden clear run-in (op 9-4)

«    2    4½      Cue Card 15/8    4    11-4     Colin Tizzard    160    *    *   
Joe Tizzard
Tracked leaders travelling strongly, joined leaders 2 out, shaken up to lead between last 2, headed approaching last, stayed on same pace run-in (tchd 13-8 and 2-1 in a place)

«    3    ½      Silviniaco Conti (FR) 5/2    4    11-8     Paul Nicholls    159    *    *    »
Noel Fehily
Chased clear leader, mistake 1st, led 3 out, headed between last 2, kept on same pace run-in (tchd 11-4)

4lbs in my book.
Report Rondetto March 6, 2011 10:48 AM GMT
I don't think I've watched any race as much as I have that one and hear what you are saying but there are other things to consider.

The difference between good horses and top class ones is, when they are fighting fit like the horses who took part in the International were. they can adapt to different situations.

Take Hurricane Fly for example or Big Buck's if you like. Doesn't matter to them how the race is run they don't stop like they just hit a brick wall.

If the horse had blown up I could understand it it but the horse was A1 according to everyone before the race.

I agree Silviano Conti never ran his race but he's a horse who was perhaps flattered by early season form. Either way nothing alters the fact he is not a 2 miler and already beaten Cue Card was losing ground on him all the way to the line.

Nothing changes the fact that for the first time in his life Cue card came up against a really good animal and the minute the pressure was on he cocked his jaw and found ziltch.

I have to disagree with you on Dunguib. Dunguib was regarded in many quarters as the greatest thing to come out of Ireland since Arkle and was being spoke of as unbeatable almost to a man. Many still think he would have beaten Menorah but for his jockey taking a guided tour and losing lengths at the top of the hill. He certainly was finishing better than the front 2 and it's hard to argue with that.

I just can't see Cue Crad getting hs own way anymore in this Supreme than Dunguib or Binocular did in theirs. Spirit Son is being spoke about at Sevenbarrows in the same breath as Binocular and some say Sprinter Sacre is better than him. Willie Mullins can improve horses a stone between races when he has Cheltenham on his mind and anyone who thinks beating Recession Proof will be easy think again. Get Me Out Of Here's Tote win was certainly no better than his.

It's all well and fine imagining all Joe Tizzard has to do is say go and Cue Card will leave them all for dead but when you got a cavalry surrounding you and coming at you from all angles you better be able to find more than you did when Menorah came at you.

There's an old saying among jockeys: You need to be 110% fit just to run at Cheltenham let alone win so be prepared to have at least a couple of surprise runners to be in the shake up. Add them to an already good field and you get a much better race than Cue Card has ever run in before including the International.

You may think that's bollox but make no mistake Menorah found winning against Get me Out of Here and Dunguib a lot tougher than kicking Cue Card into touch.

Nothing Cue Card has beaten would even be sighted in this race and that has got to be a big worry to anyone who has taken the plunge at short odds.

Talking of which you'll get 3/1 even 7/2 with ease on the day. The bookies will be fighting to take your money as they have all week to get it back should he win, but alas Sevenbarrows or Bellwood cottages will be the ones celebrating imvho.
Report Dark Destroyer March 6, 2011 10:57 AM GMT
I think we will have to agree to differ here.

anyone who thinks beating Recession Proof will be easy think again

Maybe not easy but the form suggests it is a very likely outcome. While I am a great fan of Recession Proof the fact is he gave Bothy a 1lb beating at Newbury. Menorah had previously given Bothy a 27lbs beating at Cheltenham. No-one, not even you, would suggest that Menorah gave Cue Card a 27lbs beating. Recession Proof may still be improving, even after 23 races. Cue Card has had just five and I get the feeling he probably has a bit more to show us in the event that there are any other 150+ novices in the race.
Report sj March 6, 2011 10:58 AM GMT
Rondetto Joined: 20 Jul 10
Replies: 125 06 Mar 11 09:00   

Dark Destroyer I am a bit lost at what you are saying about getting my facts right SC did give Cue Card 8lbs when he was beaten 1/w length into 3rd please explain.

Fetivalfanatic I think you'll find BG will definitely ride Spirit Son.

Can't believe how many people think Cue Card is something special. Willie Mullins and Nicky Henderson both think he's very beatable and have both nominated their runners as their best chance of a Cheltenham winner because they can see right through the hype.

You really should ask yourselves what has this horse done over hurdles to even deserve being favourite for such a good race as the Supreme.

Silviano Conti 3rd went on to finish 24 lengths behind Mille Chief, Crystal Bonus beaten 35 lengths by Grand Crus, Astracad beaten 21 lengths by Bob's Worth. Attaglance turned over at 1/2 fav at Market Rasen, Dungraven Storm last of 4 to Toubab.

Something had to finish 2nd to Menorah who couldn't have won any easier if he tried. Apart from that his form is rubbish for a Supreme Hurdle fav.

Compare that to what Dunguib had achieved last season and he found not one but 2 better than him. Wouldn't be me as I said before.

Of course you could flip it the other way and say how impessive was Silvinaco before that and not just one bad run [;)] You could also talk about the Dunraven and recession proof lines
Report Dark Destroyer March 6, 2011 11:07 AM GMT
Anyway I'd rather people made a detailed case for their views and presented them in a civil fashion, as Rondetto has done, than the forum lapse into a slanging match (hope I haven't stepped over the edge). We're still a long way from that.
Report sj March 6, 2011 11:33 AM GMT
Yeah I agree
Report chief dan March 6, 2011 11:43 AM GMT
dunquib beat nothing in ireland before he raced in supreme an was lay of the festival last year at the prices i know its east to say that after but menorah is unbeaten at chelt an is 2/3rd fav for champion there is no better form than CC in the race an if u look at tizzards form over xmas period it wasnt good there doing better now an the henderson pair form isnt anything to shot about Spirit son race latest wasnt a race he beat a 3 mile 4 year old chaser in making on very soft ground an rest of horse he beat in previous race have done nowt im sure CC would of done the same no problem think the ground will be total diff at chelt on the tues,as for Sprinter Sacre this horse is just like Fin Rainbow to me pulls very hard and is a big baby surely going to be seen better next year over fences an as for the rest the horse of value to me is the hobbs horse Dunravens Storm hobbs knows how to win this race an with forecast better ground an freshend up could be a good e/w bet without the fav
Report Rondetto March 6, 2011 1:47 PM GMT
Valid point on the form they take into the race CD but consider how many horses either couldn't run or were held up in their work due to a real bad spell of weather. I do wonder what people will make of Menorah if Cue Card is soundly beaten though.

Horses do improve and no doubt Menorah has but Jonjo's reaction to last years Supreme form was to immediately say GMOOH would go chasing. He obviously thought the form well below CH standard.

Since then Menorah has beaten a handicapper giving away lost of weight and won a race which may or may not be up to Champion Hurdle standards. The fact he has never faced any of the main opponents there is no real way of telling.

The thing is everyone is hinging their belief in Cue card on Menorah and really he was so superior to him I think it's foolhardy not to look at what the horse actually achieved and not what he didn't.

I am well aware of what Spirit Son beat but I am also well aware of the fact he is thought to be one of, if not the best young hurdlers in Nicky Henderson's yard. I've actually been backing him since day 1 when he was 20/1-25/1 after he kicked the fancied Palace Jester into touch so I've been following the market very closely. What was very noticeable was 3 days before he ran again the money came pouring in for him 20/1 to 10/1-14/1  unlike his stable companion who wasn't backed at all. His drop in price was down to the bookies cutting him after he won and not to any punt.

I'm betting they have a very special young hurdler in Spirit Son and he'll prove to be a much better than anything Cue Card has beaten to date.

Even if he is that is no assurance he'll win the Supreme. Most of us never had a clue who Captian Cee Bee was until he jumped to the front in the Supreme.

One things for sure for Cue Card backers:-looking at AP prices it always looks easy, but it looks a little bit harder when you see the actual racecard and then when they're at the postCry reality hits you right between the eyes and you realize there's more than one horse in the race with a chance.

Good luck to all.
Report sj March 6, 2011 2:54 PM GMT
Thats fine mate great prices on Spirit Son but has you said he COULD BE anything. He hasnt been round Cheltenham either, also I'm pretty sure Cee Bee was Co fav of 3 on the day I'm sure there were a few who knew who he was
Report FOYLESWAR March 6, 2011 3:09 PM GMT
i agree with you on this one rondetto cue card is looking lay material to me looks too short at prices imo
Report cats-eyes March 6, 2011 3:54 PM GMT
Didn't Charlie swan say Menorah could be the next Istabraq? if so   Cue Card must be a good thing in a Novice? and he know what he's on about i think,good luck to you layers [;)]
Report Rondetto March 6, 2011 4:46 PM GMT
WM thinks Binocular is the biggest danger to Hurricane Fly and Nicky Henderson makes Hurricane Flyy his biggest danger. Donald McCain thinks Hurricane Fly is his biggest danger and Philip Hobbs thinks Charlie Swan is his biggest dangerLaugh
Report sj March 6, 2011 4:50 PM GMT
Report geoff m March 6, 2011 5:23 PM GMT
FOYLESWAR Joined: 09 Jan 11
Replies: 322 06 Mar 11 15:09 
i agree with you on this one rondetto cue card is looking lay material to me looks too short at prices imo

If you are going to lay surely its an in running lay as he will be cruising coming down the hill.
Was tanking all over Menorah in the **** after jumping 2nd last in ****.
Think the problem he had was 1st time hes really been asked to race against tough hardened campaigner & that race will hace done him the world of good for experience.
Report sj March 6, 2011 6:11 PM GMT
Totally agree geoff think that race will have taught him a lot something which Dunguib didnt have
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