The Arkle - early season ramblings

Be a lay tomorrow if it keeps raining, doubt they would have run it on this ground usually if they wern't so desperate to get a chase run into him

Apparently not raining at the moment.
Last run on soft ground was at Haydock over 17f where he was beaten half a length by Mr Thriller. Mr Thriller had bolted up in his previous race and tried to make all. Timmy took Starluck wide before challenging 2 out led after the last and went 2 lengths clear, weakened and caught close home.

That form would be plenty good enough to win tomorrow given that Mr Thriller was rated much higher than tomorrows opponents and he is getting weight.

I know it is probably irrelevent but in the above Haydock race over 17f on soft ground Mr Thriller bt Starluck half a length and completed in 3m 57s whereas over the same trip and on the same ground Medermit bt Punjabi in 4m 4s.
Just a point, that's all.

Really looking forward to Starluck tomorrow,fascinating latecomer to the Arkle,just hope he jumps well.
if so,single figures,has to be with his hurdles form.

There is no opposition so all that will be learned is whether he can jumps fences at half pace as if schooling at home.

difference is Eric, we can actually see him jump tomorrow.whatever pace it is we should be able to form an opinion on his jumping ability at least.

Not when he is asked to race and the pressure is on him to find a stride...a head in chest win is all you will get.

brigust that Medermit Pubjabi race turned into a sprint tbh

Brookie, I think you will find Afsoun led at a fast pace.

Noble Prince shortened right back down to 18

Comments re winning in small fields with head in chest also apply to current Arkle favourite Eric, don't they? You still haven't told me which horse they've beaten who is top class. I'm still waiting.

No, they beat fellow Arkle aspirants (Ghizao and Medermit) in truly run fast pace Graded races or Hells Bay (Finian's Rainbow) not just Shank's Pony in todays race.

Cant Catch Me that seems to be someone playing games, only 2 quid last matched and a speculative few quid asking to back which is probably the market makers money. May be spoofing going on we have already had that on Ghizao, Hurricane Run, Wymott and others.

Whats the matter with you Eric,argue for the sake of it??
even if he wins as he likes,we will still get to see how he jumps ffs!!!

Good morning Bud, another big day for me today. I've already laid off my stakes+ at 1.44 just in case. If he bolts up the dream is still alive and kicking. If he falls, gets brought down or run out by loose horse, I haven't lost anything and he may still run.
Difficult decision but we'll see if it was the right one or not.

He will have to jump extremely well in this poor race to go for the Arkle but even if he jumps he will be in a totally different race in 2 weeks time with the hill he hasnt got up on several occasions over hurdles in his way.

All bad luck aside Medermit is banker material, the race is won before the home straight in the Arkle, he will have burned them off by then. No amount of good jumping can evercome the latent talent Medermit has.

I would be concerened about a Well Chief type performance from Starluck IF he was a 5yo and receiving 4lb weight allowance (and remember the fav fell) like WC did, he has to get a lot right in a very short time but if he does he is the danger.

Beat Medermit out of sight in the CH where Medermit tried to be up there forcing the pace but, in the end, wasn't good enough.

I get your point pal but King was out of form that year.

Starluck has not won a graded race. Medermit has won at G1 and G2 level.

way hes jumped over 2 miles so far,medermit is far from banker in my eyes

if he tries to burn them off he will end up in a heap from what i have seen of him!!

Medermit, and burn them off, shouldnt be in the same sentence imo.

The only way he will win is by grounding it out and getting up late. Imho of course.

Don't get me wrong Medermit has a lot of class and if he puts it all together he is a major player.
Starluck may fall in a heap today but this is a very open race that is why there is so much interest in it. If you manage to find the winner it is likely to be a decent price, favourite or not.

He cant possibly fall in a heap today, that is most likely to happen on March 15.

Dan Breen out tomorrow, lets see if he's really an Arkle horse

hope he is,and i really think he will prove it tomorrow,well as far as i am concerned he showed that at Bangor lto

Good morning Bud. Had a bad day yesterday and lost it a bit at times. It got messy. Apologies all round.
Never mind, it's only a bet. Maybe I just got it completely wrong, who knows.
Good luck with Dan Breen today. He ran a stormer in the Supreme, if my memory serves, and bolted up at Bangor.
Looks like I'm relying on Finian's in the Arkle but not with as much hope as I first thought. I started with him, Flat Out (injured) and Thousand Stars (not entered) and Starluck (who knows) so I'm still in with a shout at some kind of recovery. Take care.

Morning Brig,
Yeh hoping for another bold show of jumping from DB today,dont want a repeat of the last fence though!! Got him at a big price,same as Starluck,although 50-50 he runs in Arkle at best,it seems.

Yer did alright yesterday,we all get passionate about Chelt and feelings can run high,but we all know its part of it.Sure nobody has taken offence,be sad if they had.
cheers
oh by the way,i think you won our exchange of words re Dunguib,looks a big player now,much better jumping from him the other day. Good luck.

Hi.
It's funny how the mind works. After AP said missing the Arkle may be a good idea, or words to that effect, I have to say I wondered why. I know he is riding the CH favourite in the next race, could be a reason. I also read today that Georgio Quercus and Bellvano (JP McManus) are still in. Funny how the old mind works. And I am an AP fan.
Good luck today.

Don't beat yourself up Brigust.

You made  a good call and every thing connections said leading up to yesterdays race suggested the Arkle would be the plan if he won nicely - which he did. Not your fault that they may change their minds.

They never said he was definitely going for the Arkle. They gave warnings he may not.

McCoy has advised them the Arkle will be too soon for him and who are people with 50s to argue with him it is obvious he has the horses best interests at heart and the people with 50s dont.

These are some trainer quotes -

"He's going to run over fences either next week or the week after and then, if all went well, he could run in the Arkle," said Fleming.

"We'll just have to see what happens on his next run as that will tell us if he likes it or not. We'll play it all by ear."

If they are using their ears AP his jockey has told them he needs to go give the Arkle a miss as it comes too soon for him.

If AP thinks Starluck would be better served by wating for another Noivce race and then to Aintree, rather than going straight to the Arkle on the back of one run, then that is exactly what he genuinely believes. To think he'd want to divert that horse somewhere else just because he might be riding a JPMcManus horse in the race is cynical to the extreme. It would be deeply biased and unfair on his part.

I feel sorry for punters who backed him, given then indications from trainer, but before he ran we all knew he would have had only one run over fences, which is not ideal preparation for an Arkle.

to be fair i have no problem with Starluck not running for the right reasons,as in they think it could harm his future,makes perfect sense to me.And reading other posts from those with prices like myself,they seem to understand as well.
Eric,you are just stirring things up again,and acuusing people of putting their cash before the horses welfare.
From what i have read on various threads,that is simply not the case.
Dissapointed not to get a run? of course,but thats as far as it goes i believe.

Well they are putting their cash before the horses welfare if they are completely and arrogantly ignoring AP McCoy's advice to connections that the Arkle will come too soon. Dress it up as you want it seems you all know more than the best jumps jockey to have ever ridden ... still the airbags on here know no bounds when it comes to pocket talking.

Some of the comments made on here about this horse running in the Arkle.Bring to mind the name of the horse running in the 3/40 at Lingfield.Malice or Mischief,which will win.We are punters not trainers or jockeys.We are gutted when things go wrong, when we think we have found some some value.Chill guys.

Nice one Coupers. What about the Arkle? Bit harder?

I have been on the Fin for a while now.Thats why i followed you guys on Starluck.I just about crapped myself when i found out they had declared this.

Ditto. I backed Fin, Flat Out, Thousand Stars and Starluck at various intervals. Looks like my first thought will be the only runner. Hazards of Ante post.

Dont give up on Starluck.I believe it will run.Tony always leaves some doubt in the publics mind,after all we dont pay the bills.I saw that smile after the race.If he lost a fiver and found a tenner he would still look as if he was sooking sour plums.

^^Your tenner is in the post.

You guys obviously have Starluck's long and short term wellbeing in mind ... not.  It isn't you that are the martyrs here it will be the horse if it goes wrong bearing in mind AP's advice. Your 50 quid or whatever slip will be crumpled and forgotten quickly, if the project went ahead and went wrong connections would be left with a lot worse which is why they and AP have said they will do what is best for the horse. A gradual process of giving him experience over fences before being pitched in at a course he hasnt excelled at is obviously best.

Good morning Bud. Did you see my earlier post regards Georgio Quercus and Bellvano?
It looks like Georgio goes for the Grand Annual while Bellvano, who NH thinks could be an Arkle horse, schools before racing at Kempton.
I wonder if the outcome of that schooling session will reflect on the Starluck situation?

Brigust1, what a desperate character this Eric thing appears to be. He is obviously bricking it that Starluck runs else he'd just move on. How many times can he repeat McCoy's post race comments; like all of a sudden McCoy is the oracle on what should run and where....him being the jockey who thought it best to run Gloria Victus in the GC. Much in the same way he is banging on about Starluck shouldn't run he is making the same noises about why the exposed and winless (over fences) Captain Chris should run in the Arkle when clearly it needs further. What a hideous little character he is.

Of course I totaly agree Brownes.
Apparently he has changed his user name several times to get around being blocked which, in my opinion is crazy.
If you want to be involved in a constructive and rewarding debate where opposing views are put forward in a positive manner, surely there would be a lot to be gained. This character is just destructive, negative and ridiculing for no obvious reasons.
I'm a punter so I know first hand what it is like to be wrong but I like to think I gain substantially from promoting and defending my views before the event, then evaluating them after the event.

Brwon, ERIC always defends his financial positions, this is why he keep ramping MDH,CC and many others. He's one of those punters who finds it very difficult to accept a loss and will clutch onto a bet right until the last minute. He'll even go as far to say certain jockeys should be removed from the ride,and it given to someone esle. We all know this is a tell-tale sign of a losing bet, when punters start blaming jockeys.

re Starluck though, I have to say the suggest that AP advised against Cheltenham because he could be riding Bellvano is complete b0llocks and very cynical. It doesn;t take a genius to work out why they may have changed their minds.

Eric is away with the Fairies

Sintonian....agreed with what you say re McCoy and the Bellvano bit. All I am saying is that pretty much every jockey will have an opinion after each race they ride. The point I am making about McCoy is that sometimes they are right sometimes they are wrong, effectively I am saying what McCoy says (or any other jockey) ha little relevance (although I wished he'd jumped off and said 'I love to ride this in the Arkle').

Sin my thoughts were just that, thoughts.
Starluck's trainer said he wanted the jockey who rode him in his first chase to ride him in the Arkle. I have no idea whether Bellvano's participation or otherwise has anything to do with it.
Let's just say AP told the trainer he was trialing Bellvano today so could not give a decision until afterwards that may go some way to explain why they won't make their decision until tomorrow or Monday. After all he met the owner yesterday.
Also if he wants to keep to the same jockey the fact Bellvano might run in the Arkle could sway him to missing the Arkle with Starluck.
I'm not saying anything scurilous is going on with AP, far from it, but Starluck did bolt up on horrible ground and Aintree is also a very difficult chase course.
Add to that Bellvano may be going with only 1 chase run under his belt and then he was beaten.
Add to that NH in his stable tour said Bellvano was really tricky and benefitted greatly from AP being aboard so JP will be reluctant to let him get off.

Hope you understand my reasoning.

Bellvano would have a lot more than Starluck to worry about. Actually, if there was a horse that you wouldn't want going to Cheltenham due to inexperience Bellvano would be high up the list; its nose touched the ground a couple of times on its debut, the last thing you'd want to do to that at the moment is subject it to a competitive race. Additionally, the only way Bellvano can win, seemingly, is on the bridle; I doubt that will happen at Cheltenham. I am just hoping against hope that they allow Starluck to run as I think it has an outstanding chance in what, to me, looks the weakest of Arkle line ups.

They are galloping Bellvano today at Kempton at 12.45 before making a decision, Brownes.
I don't know if you knew.

fairpoint Brigust.

I'd agree about Bellvan as an Arkle candidate. He'd have to be a massive outsider and always thought he was better on flatter tracks. He needs to learn to settle aswell.

I think AP's other possible ride was likely to be Georgio Quercus who now goes for the Grand Annual. Who knows, if Bellvano doesn't put himself in the picture today the possibility of Starluck running may improve?

Classics above lmao .... Rock Noir.

This is the strongest Arkle for years.

Realt Dubh is a dual Grade 1 winner over 2 miles fences yet is only the 4th fav. In a normal year he would be fav.
There is a horse in the race who Ruby Walsh thinks could be special and according to the trainer has an outstanding chance in Ghizao. You have Medermit and Captain Chris who were well clear, head and shoulders better than the rest of the field in a Graded race last time.

Browne's Gazette will obviously last ten minutes antepost on here if he calls that a weak Arkle he must walk around with his eyes closed and his single brain cell switched off.

This Arkle will produce the best winner since Azertyuiop imo.

Eric only time will tell how good this years renewal of the Arkle is if anyone walks around with their eyes closed it is you.You continue to offer one sided financially biased gush based on your own warped theory which you try to pass off as writen in stone fact.You could not care a damn about Starluck or his future over fences you simply don't want him in the race because you are involved with other runners in the Arkle you aren't kidding anyone

It is really only possible to say how strong an Arkle was sometime after the event. However, speculating, this does not look a strong Arkle field. Captain Chris is clearly not a atar, Finian's Rainbow is clearly no world beater, Medermit looks ok but I'd be astonished if that progressed to running with a chance in a Queen Mother. The race, to my single brain cell, does not look a vintage renewal; time will tell. However what I won't do, should I be proved incorrect, is hide for a little bit then change my username and come back as eric-morris!!

I dont bet as simply as you mate and can therefore offer objective views on horses antepost. I dont simply huddle with others on bandwagon threads with rose-tinted glasses on which is the norm on here and is why most of you are resorting to tenners at 50s tbh.

Eric, the next time you post something sensible will be the first time.

I don't even know who that was aimed at.You really make me laugh though you don't have the faintest idea of how i bet Eric!And finally stop calling me mate i'm not your mate never have been never will be!

eric ...... surely you are not turning this into a 'my bet is bigger than your bet' topic. Each to their own regarding whether they want to risk £2, £222 or £22,222. However, I will state as a valued commission earning customer of BF I do tend to get invited to every meeting going so please don't attempt to patronise me. Also, I don't jump on bandwagons either, it is just that I don't agree with you and your desperate punt on Captain Chris for the Arkle; give it up, it's sunk fella. Good luck whatever though, it is all about opinions.

LOL ... fkin clueless.

Eric, could you explain your latest post please. Also, weren't you having a dig at somebody yesterday for using 'childish' emoticons. Now, attempt to grow up little man.

Why was your justification of your poor judgement on the quality of this seasons Arkle to state you were a commission earning customer of BF getting invited to meetings completely stupid?

Please tell me the answer.

It was in response to your 'why most of you resort to tenners at 50s' quote. Complete t1t. Now stop winding me up. You'd be better off going to watch your Captain Chris demonstrate at long odds on just why he isn't an Arkle horse.

You didnt answer the question th1cko. Commission has fk all to do with antepost backers on here at this stage because there isnt enough money in the markets the layers wont tie up large amounts on here for so long. Therefore you made yourself look a right charlie with that statement you are clearly clueless as an antepost backer on many levels. Now disappear back to the obscurity your knowledge demands.

fk me give a monkey access to a keyboard and the internet ... result ... a monkey with a keyboard on the internet

Captain Chris is not my only bet on the Arkle. He has a very strong chance in that hated the ground today will love a strong 2 miles on quicker ground as pointed out by Wiseprice on the Morning Line today though I pointed that out months ago on this very thread.

Eric, you do make me laugh! It is so obvious that you are now seething as your latest anti-post bet has gone west. You should have backed it for The Jewson fella; it was always obvious it wanted more than 2 miles. Cheer up and move on.

Dearie me th1ck isnt the word with you lad. You would stare into open space words going over your head if I tried to explain my Arkle position and others to you.

If Captain Chris doesnt run in the Arkle it wont affect my chances in the race ... look up at those words flying over your head

Your position is affected if it doesn't run yet you've backed it......now I am confused!! Oh wait, now you are going to say you've backed it NRNB.

No, you just dont understand antepost you have amply demonstrated that. Carry on with the guessing lad you wont be learning anything from me you obviously know it all already like many others on here.

That is why I am asking....I'm intrigued. You say you've backed it ante-post and at the same time you have also stated it isn't NRNB. You clearly haven't laid it back so hence why I am puzzled as to how it doesn't affect your position if (when) it doesn't run. Now, rather than come back with more insults, enlighten me oh master, I am your pupil.

As I thought.

read again: you wont be learning anything from me.

As I thought. I can only presume you've been thinking to yourself 'bollocks, I've talked myself into a right position here, how the hell am I going to get out of this one?'. Don't worry Eric, I'll not embarrass you anymore. Sleep tight little man.

ive just returned home after watching racing.
has hobbs given any ideas regarding cc intended target plse?
incidentally apart from getting in close to 2fences i thought his juming was improved today,actually jumped straight.i guess having that rail on his inside may have helped ..something which would be missing at chelt!
punchestown would be the target if he was mine

Hi, he said they wouldn't decide between the Arkle and the Jewson until the Monday before. I think he was erring on the side of the Jewson because he said it was an easier race and CC had already been beaten by Ghizao and Medermit.

Cannot see this horse winning going left handed and if he runs in the Arkle he wont have sufficient speed IMO.

R Carver....agree on both points. While it jumped ok today you can see that it won't be suited going left handed. Infact I'm coming around to a place lay on whichever race it goes for (more likely the longer one).

GL Browns.

He is a lovely looking horse, high class, but those are my feelings about him and I can imagine in December they will be targetting the king George rather than the Tingle Creek. Punchestown may suit better.

Finians Rainbow (4) , Medermit (4) , Ghizao (5) , Realt Dubh (10) , Starluck (12) , Captain Chris (15) , Dan Breen (33) , Mikael DHaguenet (33) , Rock Noir (33) , Noble Prince (35) , Bellvano (40) , Giorgio Quercus (49) , Blazing Tempo (50) , Stagecoach Pearl (66) , Williams Wishes (66) , West With The Wind (100) , Tullamore Dew (103) , Cadoudalas (119) , Pepe Simo (119) , Phidippides (150)  - Others 224 or more

Rock Noir

Looks like he is now in the mix.

Cant see that many runners in this race. Probably go off in single figures.

Why not Bellvano? Same owner, schooled at Kempton last week with this in mind.
Anyone know anything about this one?
I've taken the 40's NRNB with Sid's just in case. Will be a lot shorter if it runs, and if not, money back.
NH and JP were late with Bino last year.
If I find there is a punt being lined up I will not be a happy bunny. (Starluck).

County Hurdle

Rock Noir

Looks like we are in business.

Must admit, I agree with Eric Morris that this looks a decent Arkle on paper.
Last year, only 4 of the 12 starters went into the race with an OR greater than 150.
Top rated with OR157 was eventual winner Sizing Europe.

This year there are 5 with greater than 150 ratings.
Top rated being Ghizao with OR157.
(If Mikael d'Haguenet had not fallen at final fence when about to beat Jessie's Dream, I reckon it would be rated 160+).

from 5th Oct. Page1, Post1.

The one horse, at this stage, i'm most eagerly anticipating making his debut is Captain Chris. He struck me as something special lto, time will tell.

Cheers and good luck all.

Don't say i didn't tell you. [;)

Great call

And Finians traded at 1.5 in running

Eric - I know you mentioned you had backed 3 horses for the arkle, and have been saying all along that CC should go for the Arkle,  but is there anywhere on this thread where you actually state categorically you have backed Captain Chris.

i feel fully vindicated in my opinions on Finians,all along i said he was a proper 2m chaser and a good jumper at speed when allowed to run at his pace.
where i made the mistake over the season was thinking Captain Chris was running in the longer race,and never really considering him.mind you i Got the other fancied ones correct though.
my brother started talking about him yesterday,and thanks to him i had a saver on CC,but all those who had faith in CC running in the race and backing him have done very well.

Reyes - inspired

Great call

a great thread comes to an end well done all who backed the winner was on the 3rd myself e.w at 25s so not too dispondent good luck all for the rest of the festival

It's hard to dsitinguish on this thread what Eric backed, but nevertheless, i'll give him the benefit of the doubt and say well done. Well done eric.

And Reyes, or course.

As for FR .. he ran an absolute screamer.. forcing the pace.

cracking call reyes,hope u cleaned up,deserved to with that shout,well done

unclepuncle
When: 23 Jan 11 13:43

Noble Prince would be my leading fancy for the new 2m4f novice race if they aim him there, he just lacks the gears at 2m in the top company. The 16/1 available would be huge if thats where they aim him'

Great thread to read back and see who was right and who was wrong.

Only disappointment is Reyes deserting Captain Chris, thinking he should go to Punchestown instead on another thread.

i mentioned finians first back at the start....shame that when the race came round i thought medermit was a cert

We need to get an epic thread like this started for this years Arkle!!!! This year’s renewal is much better, so I can garauntee there will be some heated debate as we nearer March!

Between various Peddlers Cross, Al Feorf and Sprinter Sacre threads, we must have about 400 replies already!

Looking back on this thread now, there are some great quotes – a selected few

“captain chris looks a big slow horse that would probably be suited to 4 n half mile in time :)”

This is my fav from Eric Morris

“This is the strongest Arkle for years.

Realt Dubh is a dual Grade 1 winner over 2 miles fences yet is only the 4th fav. In a normal year he would be fav.

There is a horse in the race who Ruby Walsh thinks could be special and according to the trainer has an outstanding chance in Ghizao. You have Medermit and Captain Chris who were well clear, head and shoulders better than the rest of the field in a Graded race last time.

Browne's Gazette will obviously last ten minutes antepost on here if he calls that a weak Arkle he must walk around with his eyes closed and his single brain cell switched off.

This Arkle will produce the best winner since Azertyuiop imo.”