Cheltenham Festival
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Champion Chase: Zaarito is a great bet for this at 130.0. This is his aim and if he gets there in one piece he will be vying for favourtism, take all the big prices about him.
Gold Cup: Kauto Star can't/won't win. Denman can't/won't win. Both great lays. Imperial Commander has to have a chance on last years performance and he loves the track. But I really like two of the younger ones, Punchestowns has a real chance and Somersby excites me so I'm dutching the two at 22.0 and 32.0 respectively.
Champion Hurdle: Binocular is the best ante post lay in years. Hurricane Fly will be backed if he turns up but is a no in the ante post market. I would like to see Peddlers Cross go this route instead of 3m if he does 16/1 is huge and I'll have a few pound down now on the chance that he does go this way. Small stakes.
RSA Chase: Mikael D'haugenet is a shoe in for this and barring disaster will line up short priced favourite. 12/1 now is a stand out ante post bet.
DN Mares Hurdle: I'd be laying Quevega when this market comes on board. 5/4 best priced at the minute. Tarla has injury trouble and probably won't make the festival so I'm going for an Irish trained mare in My Cool Lady who won a decent Punchestown bumper last season. Could get prices in the 100s early and I'll be backing her.
Ryanair: I'm hoping Somersby takes the Gold Cup route, if he does this is a penalty kick for Long Run (who will walk the King George at 6/1) I'm taking 10/1 on Long Run here already.
They are all my ante post bets, all worth money folks.
Gold Cup: Kauto Star can't/won't win. Denman can't/won't win. Both great lays. Imperial Commander has to have a chance on last years performance and he loves the track. But I really like two of the younger ones, Punchestowns has a real chance and Somersby excites me so I'm dutching the two at 22.0 and 32.0 respectively.
Champion Hurdle: Binocular is the best ante post lay in years. Hurricane Fly will be backed if he turns up but is a no in the ante post market. I would like to see Peddlers Cross go this route instead of 3m if he does 16/1 is huge and I'll have a few pound down now on the chance that he does go this way. Small stakes.
RSA Chase: Mikael D'haugenet is a shoe in for this and barring disaster will line up short priced favourite. 12/1 now is a stand out ante post bet.
DN Mares Hurdle: I'd be laying Quevega when this market comes on board. 5/4 best priced at the minute. Tarla has injury trouble and probably won't make the festival so I'm going for an Irish trained mare in My Cool Lady who won a decent Punchestown bumper last season. Could get prices in the 100s early and I'll be backing her.
Ryanair: I'm hoping Somersby takes the Gold Cup route, if he does this is a penalty kick for Long Run (who will walk the King George at 6/1) I'm taking 10/1 on Long Run here already.
They are all my ante post bets, all worth money folks.
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no way that somersby would stay the gold cup trip i think. I think zaarito would fall even if he was running on the flat and definately at cheltenham his jumping would be tested more than anywhere. I agree that imperial commander is a good bet for the gold cup. The rsa is ideal for MDH but i also think that reve de sivola has a chance.!!!
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Did you think Big Zeb would jump at Cheltenham before the CC last season? Zaarito is a year older and wiser, once he gets a clear round nothing can get near him. Somersby will stay the 3 1/4m I'd have no doubt in that, it's more a case of whether he takes the gold route. Reve De Sivola can chase MD home!
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I hope Reve De Sivola does continue to run well.
After all his form does tie in with Walkon! |
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walkon..... whats the deal with that lad?
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What injury has tarla fjc?
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think reve would beat walkon now?
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Arthurspooner - She has an injury to here near fore that has stopped her training on since Punchestown.
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Mikael D'haugenet will go for the Arkle [;)]
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mikael has too mush class for a rsa, arkle all the way
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Long Run for the Ryanair - agreed.
Not sure why you'd want to lay Quevega though |
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If Hen persists in dodging the Gold Cup I would fancy Somersby to finish ahead of Long Run.
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Penalty Kick in September - amateur im afraid
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quevaga nap of the meeting
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Three points.
Mikael D'Haguenet will go for the Arkle Long Run will certainly not "walk the King George at 6/1" Quevega will be nap of the meeting if she turns up sound for the DN Mares. The fact Ruby picked her over Big Bucks as his banker ride says it all, as does the manner of her two festival victories. |
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Mullins said Mikael DH would go to the RSA. How come so many on here think otherwise ?
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pandarama for the crab wereever he runs
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When did Mullins say he'd go for RSA, was it recent?
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Three points.
Mikael D'Haguenet will go for the Arkle Long Run will certainly not "walk the King George at 6/1" Quevega will be nap of the meeting if she turns up sound for the DN Mares. The fact Ruby picked her over Big Bucks as his banker ride says it all, as does the manner of her two festival victories. CVByrne - Mikael D'Haugenet is going for the RSA. If Long Run doesn't win the King George come back to me. He is a superstar and that race will signal the end of an old era and the dawn of a new one. When he wins impressively he will be close to even money for the Ryanair. The 10s is massive Quevega may well win at the festival '11 but I am willing to take her on at the current 5/4. She is not certain to go for the mares and there are a couple of exciting ones to oppose her this season if she does show up. I feel she is almost certain to drift at some point in the season which will enable you to lock in the profit. |
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Great post - how about Knockarra Beau at the current prices with a better jockey? for the Gold Cup.
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I agree ong Run is a great bet for the Ryanair, I'll be backing him antepost myself. He may be a superstar in the making but Kauto is the defenition of a superstar. To say of Long Run that as a 5yo he'll "walk the King George". Is simply a laughable comment given the performance Kauto put up there last year.
As for Mikael when did Mullins say he was going for the RSA, as last season he was likely going for the Arkle. |
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I will not have a penny on Mikael d'Haguenet until it sets foot again on a racecourse and completes a race. I reckon the Mullins stablelads made a packet laying the horse on here last year, and good luck to them.
Long Run has yet to show he stays 3-mile in top class company. Beating Tazbar in the Feltham proved nothing (as far as stamina is concerned) and he didn't stay the trip in the RSA. Lamb to the slaughter based on the formbook (as of today) if going to Kempton for the King George. Obviously it has talent, but may benefit from a "light" season and being some time to mature. Quevega is a mare with immense talent and I sincerely hope we have the pleasure of watching her race again at the Festival. However, the temptation to send her to the paddocks must be growing. |
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CVByrne he said it on ATR if you go to their site if you go to the right on the page under 'video news & info' and the part below it which says 'more'.
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Thanks Graeme.
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Wayward, agree on long run and with nacarat setting the pace the king george will be another stamina test for the young horse.
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One problem with long run is if he wins the king george over 3miles the pressure to run him in the gold cup will grow. Waley-cohen senior wants him in the gold cup by all accounts so then it may be hard for henderson to persuade otherwise?
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Rampage
That's the key reason I'm all over him here for the Gold Cup. It doesn't take a huge leap of the imagination to see him winning / running well in the King George. It's his stated mid-season target, and when was the King George winner never close to favouritism for the Gold Cup? Never mind Waley-Cohen, Henderson has never won a Gold either and I think he'd be looking at a crack at the GC given the above scenario - at which point I reckon Henderson starts pushing for Geraghty to ride in the GC. Okay, there's plenty of what if's in all that, but it's far from outrageous and as a back to lay proposition for the Gold Cup, I'm well-happy with my current position. |
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Everyone has there own opinion, but current odds of 6/1 about Long Run for the King George are a joke. Put it this way, Albertas Run is at 20's and that horse is probably a stone better than Long Run on known form. Popping 3 or 4 fences on the home gallops at speed is one thing, racing 3-miles with the best all-round chaser seen in the past 40-years is quite another.
And on that thread, the odds of 20/1 for the Gold Cup are equally silly; I mean Burton Port who beat Long Run in the RSA is at 25's. I'd be looking for odds of 25's at this stage for the King George, and at least 33's but more like 40's for the Gold Cup. Of course, if the horse wins a 3-mile chase beating top opposition between now and Xmas I'll revisit those odds. Please remember the odds put up by the bookies now are there to pay for their Xmas party - they are not doing you any favours, so don't accommodate them. |
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I still think that they know better than to put a six year old into a gold cup with Kauto, Imperial Commander and Denman.
He's six remember, he will have plenty of time to win a gold cup. Kauto is going to run in his fifth gold cup having run and won his first at the age of seven. There is simply no reason to run long run in a gold cup at six. Paddy power, King george then Ryanair like Imperial Commander did will do just fine. The horse is still growing and has plenty to learn about jumping fences, what's the rush? I'll be staggered if he goes for the gold cup and staggered if he wins the king george without kauto blundering at a fence or two. |
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I agree with you cvb and if he was mine that would be the plan, but people get greedy and the media hype will be enormous if long run wins the king george so much so i cant see them not going for the gold cup.
Wayward i think the point you are missing is long run probably has more improvement in him than burton port, however i wouldnt back him for the gold cup as i dont think he'l win it this year anyway. If you are a ryanair backer you need a good run in the paddy power and then an encouraging run without quite winning in the king george. |
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If they were greedy they'd take the easier money on offer in the ryanair. Henderson would be a hypocrite if after all his talk about taking care of long run he threw him into a gold cup at six given he couldn't stay an rsa the previous year.
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There's a very slim chance Long Run will go for gold after his impressive King George win. Henderson will bring Punchestowns to the gold cup and Long Run to the Ryanair before giving the gold cup a right go in 2012 with him.
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Remember Gloria Victis. McCririck bleating on saying it MUST run in the Gold Cup and then the poor beast ended up dead. 6yo in the Gold Cup is a no no.
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Sorry I still stand by my assertion that a good run (define that how you like) by Long Run in the King George - his stated target - will mean his odds contracting for the Gold Cup and as such he is a fantastic back to lay proposition at 28-33/1
That's not the same as saying I think he will win (or even be entered in) the Gold Cup |
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I understand RJ that there is an age difference between Long Run and Burton Port, but they are both at exactly the same stage in their career (2nd-season chasers) in 2010-11.
It is not necessarily certain that Long Run will improve with age but, even so, he not only has to improve in ability to beat Burton Port but he has to develop more stamina too! |
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Roger that is based off a belief that he will run well enough to make punters believe he should switch targets and run in the gold cup. Aside from FJC's alternate reality where an impressive win has already happened. Backing long run for the gold cup in a back to lay scenario would probably prove less profitable than a simple backing him to place at better than evens in the king george, our even going e/w at the current 6/1
There seems no merit in a gold cup back to lay as a confirmation of target by connections would also kill the bet regardless of how well he runs. Too many risks. |
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What's with the 'switch targets'?
Has anything been definitely ruled out or ruled in for the horse yet? |
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for me the gold cup is the best race to look at, at this early stage.
at the top of the market you have the legend kauto star. but can he really reclaim his title again. especially this being his 7th season chasing. i'm definitely taking him on denman is very similar to kauto but has had troubles and apart from his newbury win didn't show enough last year imperial commander looked very good last season but only a few horses come back to successfully defend their crown what a friend??? good luck cooldine is a nice horse but proved he isn't good enough last year then you have some very nicely priced novices from last year, where for me the winner lies |
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wouldnt dismiss what a friend - his trainer is a master and his aintree run was a very good one.
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and what a friend achieved what he did last year with a breathing problem, which has since been corrected.
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