Weapons Amnesty - Gold Cup

* was

Bit like Solwhit out of Champion Hurdle trust this outfit at your peril?

i knew this would happen

has any news come out re WA chaps or is it just the market move on here ?

it was always a possibility with these banditos [:x]

Weapons Amnesty wasn't the best 3-mile Irish novice chaser last season, so reckon (IMO) that there is better value looking elsewhere (in Ireland) for the Gold Cup winner.

Surely the best 3-mile Irish novice chaser on good ground.

i take it your thinking Pandorama

Pandorama is an interesting horse. Is this the one you mean, Wayward Lad? If so, what do you make of the idea that he would need soft ground to be competitive at the highest level? I am not so convinced he is that ground dependent, though I would accept that the type of ground that seems to bring the best out of Weapon's Amnesty wouldn't necessarily be ideal for Pandorama.

Was thinking of several actually. It was a real shame that poor CITIZEN VIC lost his life in the RSA last March. He was cruising at that point and had he not fallen he would have gone very close to winning. PANDORAMA has to be a strong contender; as is JONCOL. We know Joncol stays 3-mile (just) and would want it soft, but then we have no idea how he'd cope on good-to-soft. Could be a better horse, could be worse.

If Joncol only JUST stays 3m then how would you expect him to stay the 3m2&1/2f up hill finish at Cheltenham.

Yes, agree about Citizen Vic.

It'll be interesting to see how Glencove Marina fares this season and whether a step up to three miles might be on the agenda. Horse ran well in his final race of last season and I think we saw the first real signs that day that the injury setback possibly hasn't left a lasting mark.

When Pandorama beat Weapon's Amnesty at Leopardstown last season, the ground was only just on the yielding side of good. After going a crawl to start with, they came home pretty quickly. It was the first time I had cause to think Pandorama may have a bit more pace (or not be as one-paced) than he had been credited with. I rate Weapon's Amnesty highly, so Pandorama is certainly one I'll be watching with interest when he returns this season.

abbott: pretty much the same way that Best Mate did when he first ran up the hill to win the Gold Cup, and Kauto Star when he did it, and Imperial Commander last March (all of which were unconfirmed stayers when they won their first Gold Cup). Of course, I could keep on putting my money on Kauto Star and Denman until they drop dead with old age, but I prefer to look to the future.

JONCOL is a 7yo, and horses generally (not always) get better stamina as they age as they run SLOWER and pace themselves and jump BETTER so they don't lose energy when they clout a fence. JONCOL has already proved himself to be a top class chaser, so he will stay the Gold Cup trip - just depends on whether (on the day) another horse stays better than him.

aka: Pandorama is an interesting contender with only 3 unbeaten chases to his credit.

I fully agree with looking to the future for the winner of the Gold Cup. Im just not that sure Joncol is where to look. As you said yourself you know he just stays 3m, that 3m is a whole lot different test than the gold cup and I fear if running in the race he will be found out. He could well be the new Florida Pearl.

Weapons Amnesty is tailor made for Cheltenham,travels nice throughout a race,jumps well and stays,big threat to all if fit.Would definitely have him out of the up and coming types.

I'd have thought both Joncol and Pandorama are very ground reliant and therefore make little appeal from an ante post perspective. Neither have ever run at Cheltenham either.
Whereas Weapons Amnesty is unbeaten there,seems to act on any going and is ideally suited by the goodish ground he's likely to encounter on Gold Cup day.
Obviously we need to be sure he's recovered but if he has a run beforehand I'd be interested in him.

abbott: If Joncol is as game and consistent and talented as Florida Pearl over 3-mile then I'm going to make a lot of money this season off him, and his connections will be mighty pleased. But if Joncol can stay 3-mile on soft, then he's likely to stay another couple of furlongs on good-to-soft.
At the moment, the Gold Cup market is full of "ifs" and "maybe's". Nobody knows whether KS or Denman will return within 20lb of their best this autumn. Will Neptune Collonge return with ability intact? Is Imperial Commander about to become the dominant champion staying chaser? How about What A Friend?
I've yet to have a bet in the race (I'll wait until the eve of their seasonal debut) but the two I am most likely to follow to the Festival (barring unfortunate upsets) are Joncol and Pandorama.

My thoughts on Joncol are that his trainer is being careful with the big horse by not running him unless he has soft ground. Not that the horse actually needs it to perform. I've followed Joncol since his first chase and lost an ap bet on him for the RSA last year. This years Gold Cup has been what he's trained for. The previous two seasons are prep for this. I've an AP bet on him for the Gold Cup.

I'm also a big fan of Pando, need to see him race left handed on decent ground to make my mind up if he's ground dependent.

Weapons Amnesty would be a horse to back on the day as he required good ground so he'll lose a load of races over here over the winter before performing at Cheltenham.

I don't agree with the he just stays 3miles re: Joncol abbott. They had the wrong tactics in the Lexus and know that. He made the running up there with Notre Pere, went wide and faded at the end. That was his first run at the distance. He has plenty more to come in my opinion.

I would agree with Buddeliea and Flying Bolt, that if Weapon's Amnesty were able to get to the Gold Cup this season fit and well and off the back of a successful prep, you would have to be thinking he would be justifying single figure odds given his excellent Cheltenham record so far. I think he acts well enough overall on a range of going conditions, though good ground was probably a big factor in bringing about the improvement in his jumping we saw in the RSA last season. His jumping might be more of an issue out of sticky ground.

Joncol, and even more so Pandorama, have that bit more to prove, both ground wise and in terms of not having been to Cheltenham before. But a lot of that is in the antepost GC price already, presumably. Without the trainer's announcement that WA is likely out for the season, that one would probably be trading around 9/1 at the moment for the 2011 Gold Cup, against (justifiably) much bigger prices for Joncol and Pandorama.

I haven't given too much thought to Joncol yet. I think Wayward Lad makes a good point about avoiding being too ready to dub the horse a non-stayer over the GC distance.With that bit more physical maturity and experience for the coming season, he may prove his doubters wrong about his ability to stay a strongly run 3 miles plus. He is a big horse and not all of those take to the undulations at Cheltenham. I would have some similar concerns about Pandorama too.

You only get the big prices antepost though if something important about a horse has been overlooked by the majority. I just think it is interesting that Pandorama beat Weapon's Amnesty on ground that was a long way from being soft. It would be wrong to read too much into that result about either horse, but I would just be wary of pigeon holing Pandorama too much as a soft ground horse or underestimating his class. I am not convinced yet he is a Cheltenham type, but if he stays fit and well, he'll probably be carrying my money quite a few times in future, in Ireland especially.

CV Im not saying that he does or doesnt but if Wayward think he only just stays then he surely doesnt scream out as a Gold Cup bet.
I hope he does stay but even if he does I doubt he is good enough though I am prepared to be proved wrong.

I have antepost vouchers on both Pando and Joncol. I feel that there will be a new winner this season and have felt the prices available for both are good enough to expect one or both to improve and act on better ground. I think Kauto and Denman will have to regress as 11yo's and punts need to be taken early while their prices remain short.

I agree but im just not sure that those 2 are the right ones. If it came to it I'd rather be with Burton Port and Weapons Amnesty if fit but Im looking a bit further afield pricewise.

isnt wa out for season?

Seems from above that he might not be.

Roll on another season of ...

eric_morris Joined: 27 Jun 10
Replies: 192 12 Sep 10 00:33   
...threads trying to persuade connections to redirect their horse from their announced target to another of their choice of 20 races at the Festival from people with a speculative £5 at 100.0 on here. Also invading meaningful threads to try and make a ridiculous case for said horse for the alternative race when it would have more chance of winning the Boat Race.

...Irish connections horses having injuries before an antepost race followed shortly after by miraculous recoveries that would make a cure from a Lourdes visit look believable.

...owners on here kindly delivering lots of good information on their horses who unfortunately dont make the race too often due to injury.

From memory (haven't looked at re-runs to check) I seem to remember thinking that Joncol had a bit of a problem jumping right at his fences which wouldn't suit at Cheltenham, and this got worse as he reached the end of the races.

,

if you look closley at the field you can see next years winner, and it'll be a new one [;)]

massivly overpriced!

Following on from the post above, I think Carruthers has a chance - young enough to improve and put up a great effort at Aintree on the back of his Gold Cup run.

It's all about opinions but if Carruthers wins a Gold Cup I'll give the game up.

Villaboy: this has been mentioned before, and I've watched all JONCOL's races last season, and I don't think he jumps right (on left-handed circuits) at all. He ran down the fence was when he was 3rd in the Lexus and did the same in the Hennessey, but that (IMO) is not the same as jumping right. It is not uncommon for horses that are tired and under pressure to run down the fence at the last (or 2nd last if very tired) fence. Joncol jumped every other fence in both those races, perfectly straight. Joncol's biggest problem is his size (he looks massive) and he tends to get caught "flat-footed" when the pace quickens and he loses a couple of lengths, so he has to make an extra effort to recover the leeway.

Which is why I think he's prefect suited to the Gold cup course and distance. WL, big strong horse that has the speed run out of his rivals in a gold cup.

I don't disagree CV, JONCOL is my idea of a Gold Cup winner in waiting.

Wayward Lad - I can certainly confirm that re Joncol's size - seeing him for the first time in the flesh (Naas, Feb 09) me and my pal both nearly dropped our racecards when he came into the paddock - a really athletic big horse. for a horse with relatively few miles on the clock he's already putting together a pretty decent CV.

would be fascinating to see him over a distance at Chelts - surely the Pillar (or whatever its called now) at the end of Jan is crying out for him, hopefully followed by the big 'un.

He will be staying in Ireland until the Gold Cup, that's for sure. Nolan will continue to take extra special care with him. Prep race then Lexus and Irish Hennessy before the trip to Cheltenham.

is that the plan CV Byrne? fine line between special care and dear-old-Hen style kid gloves - surely tricky to have a serious go at the Gold Cup without seeing the place before.

Well Nolan has skipped the Cheltenham festvial twice with Joncol. He almost surely will only go over there this term for the Gold Cup. He is a very lightly raced horse so this isn't his only chance to win the Gold Cup. I'm almost certain he'll go for Lexus and Hennessy here rather than make the trip over for any prep.

true CV - for what it's worth I've v much understood Nolans reasons for not going over before, and as you say he has time on his side still (hopefully). I imagine though that he has minded him to hopefully make a Gold Cup horse - his time for that is coming but it's my view that his chance of running well in it would be compromised if he follows the route you mention.

Would be nice to have another Paul Nolan documentary on BBC 4

if fit? surely a tilt at King George kempton Boxing Day must be a serious consideration

Would be very surprised if Joncol is not in the GC field this season.
I think Pando is slightly more ground dependant than Joncol.

People reading too much into Weapons Amnesty and his trainer imo, they told the truth about Solwhit last year - he should never have run last year. The trainer is a cr..k but the keep their plots close to their chests. The best ones are the ones no one sees coming, not a job revolving around the GC ffs!

Kempes is another intersting 2nd season chaser, bolted up at Punchestown first try over 24f.

But imo the Irish winner of the Gold Cup will be Sizing Europe, following the same route as Best Mate, Kicking King and WOA. The trip doubts just add to the value.

downallstar: that's an interesting suggestion!
Nobody seems to want to forgive Sizing Europe for not winning the Champion Hurdle in 2008, and he's constantly slagged-off. Me? I think the horse is a dependable, solid jumper, with a bit of pace at the business end, and a great cruising speed.
Current odds for the Gold Cup of 20/1 tho' are a joke. He should be treble that at least and so he just is not value at all.
All the same, a good suggestion.

Wayward - he's  a very good leaper imv. Not even going to get in the CH. I have a few shillings on at 100s-120s on here, but the problem with his AP price is that he runs over 2m6f next week, he pi$$es up and he's 16s on the books. I can't see any good reason his price would go out, unfortunately.

Yes, 20/1 for Sizing Europe with the bookies would seem to offer little value at this stage, though currently around odds of 40 on here is a bit more like it. Hard to fault what he achieved last season. Jumped soundly (back problem reported after the CH run appears to have been overcome)and easy enough to form the impression he would get further than the minimum trip in good company (though there was a good discussion on here a couple of years ago about the horse's pedigree and whether or not the indications were good for him staying much further than two miles).

If all we knew about Sizing Europe was what we saw last season, you would think he was one of the most robust and hardy animals around. I am wary of forgetting though that his record from the previous two seasons is more that of a fragile horse, who has had absences and setbacks to overcome (and missed a number of engagements due to delay in recovery and various niggles). Trainer did so well with Sizing Europe last season in light of the horse's earlier physical problems, that counters to some extent concerns about soundness to compete at the top level in the stayers' division. Nevertheless, I would still need a bit more convincing that the horse is now more robust than his earlier record would suggest.

I agree that Kempes, as a very long shot, is interesting, though suspect he will always be one to catch right in staying races won by those just short of top class. Whether Pandorama proves more ground dependent that Joncol will be interesting to see. I like the look of Pandorama and I think he would handle genuine good to soft well enough in top company, as indicated by his victory over Weapon's Amnesty at Leopardstown last season. A bigger concern for me with Pandorama would be the type of track. A flatter track that suits the strong galloper, such as Newbury, might play most to the strengths of the horse. He strikes me as a strong stayer, strong battler, well capable of winning conceding weight to good horses if it comes to it. At a track like Cheltenham, unless it is pretty sticky underfoot, he might just be found out for a lack of tactical speed in a race like the Gold Cup and I would just need a bit more convincing about how well balanced he would prove to be under pressure on a steeply undulating track (he looks to be particularly well built at the front end and that conformation presumably is easier to keep balanced on a flatter track).

WA won the Albert Bartlett and RSA because??

Not just the ground. He is a thorough stayer and needs a fast run race. The only place u can guarantee that is at Cheltenham.
Wont win many small field chases.

Looks like we'll soon start to get the pieces of the jigsaw - Pandorama and Sizing Europe could meet in the Irish "Akle" next Thursday.

http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/punchestown-pandorama-could-clas...

Mouth watering stuff!!!