CV, you say there's no reason to think he won't win one, then you also say you can't back a horse for the CH unless they have form tied in with CH yardsticks. Surely you can't make exception for either doubt? HF may well handle the hustle and bustle of the CH, but you don't know he will. I think the price is quite skinny at this stage.

With regards to Go Native, I said when this forum first opened I can't ever see him winning a CH. IMO doesn't have the stamina to win a truly run race, and Meade's record at the festival is dire. Go Native isn't a battler, and where he's known to 'idle', I think it's just his stamina giving way. Peddlers pulled clear of Starluck whenever he challenged, Go Native was losing ground all the way to the line in the Xmas Hurdle. The race at Newcastle can be discounted completely as it absolutely played into Go Native's lack of stamina. He does have an exceptional burst of speed but it doesn't last long, and in a truly run race I can't see him finishing in the top three.

CVB -  Why do you say that RC? Supreme winner, Fighting Fifth and Christmas hurdle winner, was fav for the champion in march and got injured. Can't really knock him to be fair.

Hi CVB, just a v quick reply, but IMO the FF last yr was a farce, the Christmas Hurdle not much better (as a CH trial) and his supreme win (from memory) saw Medermit (and non-runner HF) as an unlucky horse. I agree, it would be silly to put a question mark against his CH run, as he got injured. I like the way he is being campaigned this yr, more lightly and a later introduction (the run against Voller FTO was a hideous mistake last yr i thought). But the level of his form for me does not make him a CH player.

HF is though, like i've said, he is a terrific horse, visually v impressive, i just think on all evidence so far the weight of his form falls slighlt short of a binocular CH 2010 style run. Do i think his (or GN's) current level of form to be good enough? No. Can he step up? Of course. Will he? Quite possibly, yes. Would i back him at this stage? No. But those with AP  vouchers, like yourself, i can understand your confidence.

[move]GAWD[/move]

I just looked through the ATR videos of the Fly's races - except his Rabobank CH win as the link is broken.  In his favour he travels well and, for the most part is a fairly fluent jumper. He also has a fine turn of foot off a moderate pace.

There are no provable negatives yet; he did not look right in his defeat on heavy ground, unsettled throughout, head very low, then raised, then low again.  His action looked OK on the ground, but it seems likely he was not himself.  Perhaps the lack of cover in the smallest field he's run in did not help.

He does not look the most straightforward ride and Townend seems to suit him very well, not least in his icy nerve, unafraid to let the horse become surrounded by rivals in the closing stages of a race, always confident HF will deliver when asked.  That repeated tactic suggests the horse requires holding up to produce his best. 

For all the electrifying appearance of his finishing kick, the slower the pace, the more impressive that looks, and there must be a suspicion that a hot-paced Champion Hurdle might draw that sting from him, especially with the hill to face.

I don't accept the validity of this stat about Montjeu's stock never having won at Cheltenham.  I had a look at it in detail last season and, from memory, I think Montjeu had only had 22 runners at the course, the shortest price of which was 11/2.  The 'failure' of his progeny to win there is much more likely to be attributable to their overall ability rather than any fear of the hill.

Nonetheless, it is the first time HF will have been confronted with such a stamina-sapping finish.  I suspect he has only one run in him (part of the reason Townend covers him up so long).  Whether, off a very fast pace, that run can be both delivered and, more importantly, sustained, we won't know till the day. 

It's also worth noting an earlier quote from the trainer after he won at Leopardstown in Dec 08: "He got quite worked up in the parade ring today but once Paul got on his back he was fine. You would worry a bit about how Cheltenham and the huge crowds might get to him."  Well, that was two years ago, you might argue, but he's had only four races since then.

We should also bear in mind that he has never raced outside Ireland or France.

As with Menorah, Peddlers Cross and the other first-time Champion Hurdle participants, let's hope he gets there safe and sound and we find out what he and the others are made of.  From an ante-post viewpoint, at the current price and given his soundness difficulties as well as the potential issues mentioned above, I'd be a layer.

Good post Steeple.

Since then Montjeu has continued to have no success at the course. In the 09 festival he had Alexander Severus who travelled all over the field at 5/2f but found nothing up the hill. Also since then Monetary Fund has been beaten twice as favourite at the course, the second time weakening up the hill.

The worry is not just that he's 0 from 30 or whatever, as that would be too black and white, but that many of them have visibly struggled up the hill after travelling well (Alexander Severus, Monetary Fund and Gloucester for example) even though they have finished there races elsewhere very well in the past. Also the one time Hurricane Fly has run in a strongly race well (Ireland in April) he travelled all over them and looked to win very easily but only just held on in the end. That day he only beat Thousand Stars by 2l who's 4 previous RPRs were 138,140,141,142 which brings the form down a bit.

woodworm - 'a splint injury' was the reason he missed the festival in 09. I can find nothing specific about the ailment that ruled him out of it in 2010. (more on Splints at the foot of this post).

EC, that's interesting info which might add some weight to the Montjeu stock theory.

CV, although the Silverburn Denman comparison seems a fair argument, there's no question which is the better horse. But the comparison doesn't address the issue of getting up the hill.

As I said, there are no provable negatives so far with HF but it is not unreasonable to speculate.  I am not questioning the horse's ability or potential, only the potential value of backing or laying.

(A splint injury seems a fairly vague diagnosis when mentioned by trainers or the press.  It could be inflammation or a fracture. If it was a recurrence of that which kept him out this year, it is not necessarily bad news long term as it seems that as a horse ages, calcification makes further splint injuries less likely.)

There are two main conditions which affect the splint bones. The term "splints" commonly refers to an inflammatory condition and a calcium lump on the bone, while the term "broken splint bone" refers to a fracture of the splint bone and a calcium lump where it is trying to heal. When lameness in this area occurs, the above conditions may be confused and need to be differentiated.

CV, best hope it was not a suspensory ligament problem as it lies close to the cannon bone which is the bone affected by splint injuries, which suggests a weakness in that general area.

At least you got a decent price and have the option to protect your stake and still leave a healthy profit

I remember someone saying that before after he got the ligament injury that's why I remembered it. But it was just a sprain. Hopefully he'll be fine though it's about now when get usual gets his injury.

Also being a believer in Hurricane Fly I had to take the view that value will be in taking the risk on him ap while his price was so big given the time he gets to Cheltenham his price will surely be far shorter than that.

Interesting stuff. 'Splints' don't bother me; basically equates to 'growing pains' experienced by teenagers. Once a splint fracture has fused or or the inflammation has settled the problem is not likely to recur. Suspensory ligament damage is of more concern but would be unconnected to the previous splint problems. The main concern with ligament and tendon damage is the repair tissue is often less strong than original. In my understanding tendon injuries are the most serious although enforced rest and advanved veterinary techniques have improved recovery rates no end. (for what its worth I am a vet but i stopped treating horses some years ago!)

It is the Montjeu angle that slightly concerns me about Noble Prince, who in other respects I rather like as a long shot for the Arkle. And I won't get chance to see how Hurricane Fly goes in the CH before the novice chase.

The temperament that sometimes shows with this line wouldn't help in terms of seeing out the trip in a demanding race. But as CV pointed out, the influences of breeding are not so fixed as to rule out exceptions, and some of the great champions are just that - they surprise somewhat in terms of what breeding might suggest.

I don't think we will be talking about 'great champions' in relation to Noble Prince, though if he has not been unduly held up by a setback, he may go to the Arkle a little underestimated. With HF, no reason yet to rule out the possibility of him proving exceptionally good, though fair points have been made in this thread in speculating about what his strengths and limitations might prove to be in relation to the CH. Surely will do better than Won in the Dark and Blue Bajan, who both took in the CH with no great impact.

Where's that from CV?

Ta

My love for this horse gets greater he laughed at them today...I cant see nothing living with the class of the fragile fly if he turns up at Cheltenham

Laddies have the market right at 4s for each of Binocular, Menorah and Hurricane Fly. You cant make HF clear fav after beating plodder Solwhit (why isnt he being stepped up in trip there must be bad 2 milers without HF over there to make it worthwhile) who struggled to get 2nd there and on ground a Montjeu would love which is far from March Cheltenham ground where the pace is much stronger.

I just watched the replay on the ATR website and all 5 runners were hard on the bridle coming into the straight. Yes, HF left them for dead after the last and was still on the bridle, but as a trial for the actual Champion Hurdle this was a non event.

I still hope he can do the same at Cheltenham - it would be great if he can come there like Harchibald but then bound 10 lenghts clear, but until he faces a truely run race at a stiff track we just won't know.

I like the horse but I am a layer at the price.  He looks impressive but is beating trees in Champion Hurdle terms.  He hasn't yet beaten a single serious Champion Hurdle contender and until he does, I will lay.  If he wins then fair play and I lose but in my reckoning, he will have to run a 10 lbs above any form he has shown before, which doesn't make him a the price he is currently.  Good luck to the backers but there is a huge leap of faith involved in backing this horse in my view

On paper beating Go Native 10 lenghts is really good form  but on that day, the 3rd and 4th were only a length behind and the 4th is only rated 120!  So GO NATIVE beat an average handicap hurdler by 1 length which must make you think that it wasn't GO NATIVE at its best. I am not knocking HURRICAN FLY, I am knocking the value of his form and whether it merits a short price for a Champion Hurdle.