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Menorah needs to be held up longer, imo - almost a Sea Pigeon ride.
Was in front too long at both Cheltenham and Liverpool in my opinion, and as Ascot and then Aintree showed, this is the way to get him beat... |
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deadloss Joined: 23 May 03
Replies: 64 15 Sep 10 09:50 Kauto-Kauto. Where did you hear that please? Just from a lad i know that rides out at Kings i know a few lads from certain stables as i have nvq 1 2 3 in work riding and went to riding schools with a few people that are now riding out at big yards. sorry if you didnt want anything about your horse posted on the forum. |
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millhouse, really disagree with you - i love this horse, but doubt he's quite good enough to win a champion. he was brilliant at warwick and kempton when in front plenty long enough. At liverpool he was surely just over the top against a smart horse. The ascot defeat happened to coincide with the worst ride Johnson has ever given a horse (which may be attributable to the earlier fall on planet of sound).
The horse just wants a strongly run 2 miles. I dont think he wants to be in front too long but only in the same way as many horses ideally dont want to be in front too long, but he doesn't need a sea pigeon ride surely. He was held up and oozed class in his bumper but i dont accept he has to be held up as a necessity. I imagine he'll fall just short of top class in the champion. |
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RC - he nearly lost the Supreme because he was idiling in front, he got beaten at Ascot because he was in front too soon, and at Aintree he was again kicked on too early, and got sucker punched up the long run in.
All of this is in my opinion of course, but I think it might be at least worth a try holding him up for much longer. In my view this horse has the potential to go all the way, but I don't think he's being ridden to maximise his ability at the moment. I'm not blaming Johnson, it looks to me that he often can't believe how well he's going on this horse, and understandably he wants to get the job done - but imho I really don't think Menorah is suited to being in front for too long... |
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Agree with you Millhouse think the longer they hold on to Menorah the better he will look also think Bobby Ewing who beat him over 2m 4f at Doncaster will be top class if he's recovered from his injury.
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seem your being undermined deadloss lol :D
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millhouse, to some extent i think you may be right about holding onto him for longer, arguably he was coming to the end of his tether or idling at the festival against the stayer GMOOH (its a while since i watched the race tbf), i am sure he has the class to travel in behind and try and pick off opponents. His bumper run showed he could be held onto, he travels well enough.
However, as i say, i dont think he had a problem kicking early at warwick and kempton and i dont think he has any more of a problem being out in front than most other horses. As you say though, its defo all opinions and i dont pretend to 'know' any more than the next person. The ascot race was a funny old race. This was (imo) basically a pre festival pipe-opener. Johnson makes it early, the horse pulling fairly hard, then prince buster and sophies trophie get lit up taking each other on gaining a big lead over menorah down teh back. Johnson for some reason panics miles out and chases thornton (prince buster was imo always going to fold after getting lit up). By this time the horse is having a harder race than was intended (it was only intended as a supreme prep imo), he clatters through the last and then gets outstayed by the stayer lush life. I just think that day Johnson gave him a spectacularly bad ride. I dont think he got beat through idling, just possibly getting tired after a bad ride in testing ground when only being run to get ready for the festival. The Doncaster run was also idiotic - trying to give lumps of weight over too long a trip agaist a proper stayer in Bobby Ewing, he never had any cover and pulled too hard - again, i dont think johnson was inspired on him and i think hobbs made an error running him in the wrong race (distance and trying to give weight). Imo that would explain those 2 defeats and i believe at aintree he was over the top against a smart horse who was fresh from the early supreme fall. as i say though, its defo all about opinions. On your main issue, i would love to see him held up. If he runs in something like the greatwood early on, be interesting to see him held up. I dont think that tactic would work against the likes of binocular in the cham,pion though as i dont think he'd be quite good enough to do it in that company, much like KK wasn't in march. Interesting debate though Millhouse! |
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To be fair Big Bucks, deadloss has always said on here they would keep him over hurdles to see if he's good enough for the Champion and if not they'd switch to chasing. It's not a secret.
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i thought briefly coming down the hill...peddlers got tapped for toe momentarily...but then stayed on strongly, i wouldn't want to see him drop back in trip...rather step him up to take on big bucks.
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wont stay against big bucks and wouldnt beat him anywya . his optimum will be 2 m 4 on decent ground. hed win a soft ground champion hurdle no doubt. if it was bottomless i think big bucks could win a champion
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No problem kauto-kauto. I have not hidden anything on here and what you said only followed up from what I had said elsewhere.
I was just interested in your source (IE if I knew you!!) |
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okay deadloss.yeah i just know a few lads that work at the yard not yourself.
Is good what iv been hearing regards walk on and if the plans go well could be there or there abouts come the champion if you look at the form of zaynar. good luck this year. heard you bought Franklino, looked good in winning two flat races in france,any targets with him for november or just hoping for a good horse again? |
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Im guessing you know Vinny then. He looks after Walkon all the time and I think he would have taken him on his honeymoon if he could.
Franklino has been bought and fingers crossed he stays fit and well. I think targets for Juveniles are some of the hardest to make. Ultimately, he will tell us when hes ready to run and after that who knows. |
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buddeliea
Joined: 19 Mar 04 Replies: 1515 13 Sep 10 06:09 Howdi, i take it you are implying that cos he wins at further he is too slow at 2m? Do you know that for a fact? I have no problem in backing a horse that wins the neptune in the following CH,and as been mentioned its proved successful before a few times. In my eyes PC could really be anything,and whilst i dont expect him to beat Binocular or HF,thats not to say he wont!! No Ive been aroiund too long for such a simplistic view and of course I dont know it as fact |
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Heard on good authority this week that Peddlars Cross IS going for the Champion as number one /two and three plan !!!!
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It's surely an advantage to be capable of staying 2m4f in the Champion Hurdle - the race is almost always a brutal test at the trip, and you have to genuinely get home or you are dead in the water, imo (Ekbalko, Harchibald etc)...
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Surely on the evidence of last year the only horse that could trouble Binocular is Hurricane Run ?? I sometimes think people read too much into things when trying to get a horse beaten. Binocular was so impressive last year he will have to be on a off day not to be in first two !
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Hurricane Run? Also go native had a legit chance, wasn't his true running in the champion.
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I'd be laying Peddlers at present. The money that has forced his price down probably means that the Champion is the first route that will be aimed at for him, but he doesn't look a two miler to me at the top level. Definitely pushed along before the home turn at Cheltenham, which isn't what you want to see, given that 5f shorter and a classier opposition awaits if he's to be a Champion contender. Furthermore, his wins last season over two miles were all in soft/heavy ground, which reduced the premium on speed. A really good horse, but I don't think the Champion will turn out to be his race. Yes, we've had Istabraq and Hardy, but they're the only two winners of the 2m5f novice race to have successfully reverted in trip. Look at all the other winners and very few ever won over two miles subsequently.
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I have Hurricane Fly at 14's and wouldn't swap it for anything.
Willie Mullins says hes the best hurdler he's ever trained and that is good enough for me. He is not ground dependent because he has won on all types. To beat Solwhit in a battling finish after months out shows he's got the right attitude and like a fight - I think he would love the hill. He has comprehensively beat Go Native in their novice days. IF (and thats a big if) he can stay fit he would be my banker of the festival. |
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Bang on the money there wellchief, I just hope we get treated to a Binocular vs Hurricane Fly. My money is on the latter. But I hope we get to find out if I'm right or wrong.
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I'm a huge Binocular fan and have been since his very first race over hurdles. Backed him in all his races he's won me bundles.
Now that's out of the way AP rode an awful race when he was beaten by Punjabi. Not AP's fault, no ones really, the plan which proved to be the wrong one was hold on to him as long as you can. They put the record straight by kicking on at the top of the hill and using Binocular one burst of speed at exactly the right time. Horses like Solwhit and Go Native simply can't cope with that. The odds that the up and coming Menorah will improve enough are massive. The step up is massive, Grand Canyon massive, so big it's undescribable and very few novices progress to that standard in a normal year. To do it this season with the good hurdlers that are around is bodering on the impossible. If anyone wants to get rid of some money he's their best bet. As big a fan as I am of Binocular I can't see them getting way with it against Hurricane Fly. This horse like Binocular has an amzingly high cruising speed and if and when AP kicks on Binocular he'll be right there with him. The difference is he will find that 3rd extra gear that Binocular simply doesn't have and it should win him the day. Have to face facts when they are staring you right in the face, Binocular is up against it if Hurrcane Fly turns up 100% on the day. |
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The odds that the up and coming Menorah will improve enough are massive. The step up is massive, Grand Canyon massive, so big it's undescribable and very few novices progress to that standard in a normal year. To do it this season with the good hurdlers that are around is bodering on the impossible. If anyone wants to get rid of some money he's their best bet.
Rondetto, I'm pretty sure that Gaye Brief, Dawn Run, See You Then, Royal Gait, Alderbrook, Istabraq, Make a Stand, Hardy Eustace, Sublimity and Katchit were all novices during the season they won or the season before they won. This is unequivocally a young horse's race, imo, and I would bet that a horse that is not even in the current ante post lists is very likely to be one of the leading fancies on Champion Hurdle day - previous seasons' form very often do not mean all that much when it comes to this race, in my humble opinion - a year is a long time in NH racing... |
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binocular will win it!!
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Hurricane fly, that win at punchestown last season(2010), was brillant, after the injurie's to come back and win a group1 like that was special....if, BIG IF, but if it has a injury free season, should be a big threat come march...wouldn't be prepared to put my money where my mouth is at this stage though.
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ttt
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