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My Two Pence

Sunday 21st November

21 Nov 10 13:15

Bet 1 - Blackburn v Aston Villa - Barclays Premier League, kick-off 13:30

Although Villa are ravaged by injuries with many regulars missing and youngsters replacing them, I feel they represent value @ 4. Clark, Hogg and Bannan all play from the start for Villa. Although Blackburn are no mugs, I still think a small punt on the Villa win is worth it.

Bet: 0.5pt Aston Villa @ 4

Bet 2 - Fulham v Manchester City - Barclays Premier League, kick-off 16:00

City manager Roberto Mancini is starting to come under serious pressure from the fans and, you would think, the club's bigwigs as well. Two 0-0 draws in a row (although one was against rivals Man Utd) are not acceptable for a club with Champions League ambitions. Meanwhile, Fulham have enjoyed a decent start under Mark Hughes, although nothing special. Their home form was always going to be the foundations for their season, much in the same as last year under Roy Hodgson, and they have only lost once there so far against Tottenham. Man City's away form will have been frustrating for them so far, beating the likes of Blackpool and Wigan but losing against Wolves and Lech Poznan in the Europa League. I expect Man City's struggles to continue today, surely bringing the end of Mancini's tenure ever closer.

NAP: Lay Manchester City @ 2.4 (1.5pt liability to win 1pt)

Bet 3 - Sevilla v Mallorca - La Liga, kick-off 18:00

Sevilla have really started to improve recently under Gregorio Manzano. They have now won their last 3 home games, and those games have come against good teams, including Bilbao, Atletico Madrid and Valencia. Luis Fabiano is back in form now Alvarez has gone, and he and the rest of Sevilla's strikeforce should have more than enough firepower to beat a Mallorca side with only one away win this season. The 1.75 on offer for Sevilla is quite tempting, but I'll go one better and take Sevilla -1.0 on the Asian Handicap @ around 2.2. Sevilla's last 3 against Mallorca have been by 2 goals, and 2 of their last 3 in the league have been by 2 or more.

NAP: 1pt Sevilla -1.0 on AH @ 2.2

NFL Bets:

Bet 1 - Houston Texans @ New York Jets - NFL, kick-off 18:00
NAP: 0.5pt NY Jets -6.5 @ 1.98

Bet 2 - New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles - NFL, kick-off 01:20
NAP: 0.5pt Eagles -3.5 @ 2.08

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Arsenal v Tottenham - 13 or more corners 1pt @ 2.34
Arsenal and Tottenham could not come up with enough corners in this one.
Result: -1pt

Blackpool v Wolves - Blackpool win 1pt @ 2.48
I said Blackpool would be looking to win this one and they never looked like giving the 3 points up after Luke Varney's goal 3 minutes in.
Result:  +1.4pts

Birmingham v Chelsea - Lay Chelsea 0.74pt to win 1pt @ 1.7
Chelsea struggled to break down a resilient Birmingham side who nicked a goal against the run of play in the first half.
Result: +1pt

Villarreal v Valencia - Villarreal win 1pt @ 2.06
Redded out of Villarreal after the late red card, as the Yellow Submarine reached 4.1.
Result: -0.5pt

Almeria v Barcelona - Lionel Messi to score 1pt @ 1.69
Messi took only 17 minutes to score in a match which you could probably say was dominated by Barca.
Result: +0.65pt

Real Madrid v Athletic Bilbao - Real Madrid Clean Sheet: No 1pt @ 1.94
Despite dominating the first half, who else but Fernando Llorente popped up with a kind-of offside poacher's finish late on in the opening 45.
Result: +0.9pt

A good day's punting has seen us almost recover from our bad start.
Running Total: -1.55pts
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Bet 2 - Blackpool v Wolves - Barclays Premier League, kick-off 15:00

Neither of these teams have had much luck lately. Blackpool's last match against West Ham could have seen about 6 or 7 goals in, but instead there were none due to some woeful finishing from both sides, and the midweek before they also walked away with nothing from Villa Park after a late Marlon Harewood equaliser was cancelled out a few minutes later by Richard Dunnde at the other end. Wolves have had no luck on the road for some time now, with their last point away from home coming on the opening day against Everton. Since then, they have lost all of their 5 away matches, despite some good performances, in particular against Chelsea where they managed more shots on target than the champions. However, I can see more frustration for Wolves when they travel to Bloomfield Road. Blackpool have been playing well at home recently, beating West Brom and holding Everton and Fulham to draws. If Blackpool are to stay up, these are the type of games they have to win and I think Ian Holloway will have his lads up for this one.

NAP - 1pt Blackpool win @ 2.48

Bet 3 - Birmingham v Chelsea - Barclays Premier League, kick-off 15:00

Chelsea are going through an injury crisis at the moment. Alex will return for them on Saturday, but they are without big players in John Terry, Michael Essien and Frank Lampard. Last Sunday's 3-0 loss to Sunderland showed us that even with the likes of Drogba, Anelka and Malou da in the team, they are not the same players without their usual midfield behind them. Birmingham are struggling at the moment and in the bottom three, however their strong home form remains, with their only loss in 21 games at home coming a few weeks ago against a resurgant Everton. Birmingham have drawn their last seven games at home against the "Big Four" and I can't see a depleted Chelsea coming away with three points in this one.

NAP - To Win 1pt Chelsea Lay @ 1.7 (0.74pt liability)

Bet 4 - Villarreal v Valencia - La Liga, kick-off 17:00

Villarreal's home form has been a joy to behold at El Madrigal this season. 5 wins at home this season, all HT/FT, and only conceding one goal altogether against good teams such as Atletico Madrid and Athletic Bilbao. Valencia are a decent team, but they are just too inconsistent. I can see this game going much the way of their recent away game against Sevilla which saw the home side triumph 2-0, so it's a Villarreal wbein for me here.

NAP - 1pt Villarreal win @ 2.04

Bet 5 - Almeria v Barcelona - La Liga, kick-off 19:00

Last week's 3-1 win for Barcelona at home to Villarreal saw Lionel Messi get a double, meaning for the first time in his careen he has scored in seven consecutive matches. If Xavi starts alongside him there are no reasons to suggest he won't extend his run to 8 in a row.

NAP - 1pt Lionel Messi to score @ 1.7

Bet 6 - Real Madrid v Athletic Bilbao - La Liga, kick-off 21:00

Well, Jose Mourinho's teams simply don't lose at home, but I still won't be betting on them at 1.2. Instead, due to the form of Fernando Llorente I will be taking a bet on the hosts not keeping a clean sheet. Despite Jose's defensive nature, his defence have been caught out at home on a few occasions this season, conceding to Racing Santander, Deportivo and Real Murcia in the cup.

NAP - 1pt Real Madrid Clean Sheet - No @ 1.94
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Saturday 20th November

20 Nov 10 11:46
Scotland decided to get to 3-0 before backing off the Faroes, resulting in a broken 2.5 goals barrier and a losing bet.

Running total: -4pts from 4 bets

Bet 1 - Arsenal v Tottenham - Barclays Premier League, kick-off 12:45

Arsenal's 6 home games have averaged 13.3 corners this season, while Spurs' away games have averaged 12.5 corners. Being a derby match, we will not see much sitting back from either team from the kick off, and I think both teams profilicy on the wings from the likes of Gareth Bale on the left for Spurs will see lots of corners in this one.

NAP - 1pt 13 or more corners @ 2.34
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Tuesday 16th November

16 Nov 10 00:03
Not a great start to the blog as we start with three losers on the trot. Everton and Arsenal could only muster 11 corners between them, Chelsea were destroyed by Sunderland by halftime and Real Madrid chose Sunday as the day to end their recent scoring spree.

Running total = -3pts from 3 bets

But on with Tuesday's bets.

Bet of the Day - Scotland v Faroe Islands - International Friendly

While other countries have high profile friendlies against the likes of France (and possibly Norway, if you include them in that list), us Scots' glamour friendly is against: the Faroe Islands. It is a game which we should win, however I can't see it being a rout like the last time we faced them at home (6-0). The Faroes are not exactly the pushovers they once were, beating Lithuania in September 2009 in what was their first competitive win in eight years and recently holding Northern Ireland to a 1-1 draw at home. Meanwhile, Scotland's last 5 home friendlies have all been low scoring with less than 3 goals in each. Our last 2 strikers to score for us in Kenny Miller and Steven Naismith have both withdrawn from the squad, and this lack of firepower and Faroe resurgance should see a low scoring game.

NAP - 1pt Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.6 (to trade out for 1pt green when unders reaches 1.26)
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Hello Betfair Forum World.

I have created this blog in an attempt to create a structured and organised method of punting, having been a bettor and avid football fan for many years. Hopefully I will be able to put any knowledge to good use and make some money for myself (and any followers ;) ) along the way.

In this blog I will be bringing you bets from many football leagues, including the English Premier League, Championship and Spanish Primera Division. Being a Scottish football fan and Rangers supporter I know just how unpredictable the SPL can be and so I will, in general, be staying away from that league. I also enjoy watching how my bets get on, so usually you will be able to watch my picks on live TV or get a live stream on the internet somewhere.

Depending on the match, bets may be from popular markets such as Match Odds or Over/Under Goals, or special markets like corners and bookings (two types of market which helped produce a steady profit from the world cup). I will also be keeping a running total througout each blog post.

Anyway, it's time to crack on with my recommended bets for Sunday the 14th of November.

Bet 1 - Everton v Arsenal - Barclays Premier League, kick-off 14:00

I feel that this one could be difficult to predict with regards to Match Odds and Goals, so I will be staying away from them and instead going for a bet in the Corners Odds market. Due to their attractive style of play, Arsenal are a side who always produce lots of corners so it will be no surprise that 4 of their 6 away matches have produced 13 or more corners. Although only 2 of 6 Everton's home matches have had 13 or more corners, their two matches against top 4 opposition in Liverpool and Manchester United produced 15 and 12 respectively. I think we should see an open game with lots of corners, so I think that that is the way to go in this game.

NAP - 1pt 13 or more corners @ 2.4

Bet 2 - Chelsea v Sunderland - Barclays Premier League, kick-off 16:10

Chelsea will almost definitely win this game, but backing any 1.24 bets is a quick way to get a seat on the poor bus. Although they have won their last 9 games with a clean sheet, I have a bad feeling about this bet due to the form of Asamoah Gyan, and the fact that all good runs have to come to an end sometime. A bet I am more comfortable with comes in the Half Time/Full Time market. In the league (discounting their 4-2 defeat to Manchester City), Chelsea have won all their home games in 2010 at HT and FT, with the last time they didn't being their 28th of December clash against Fulham. Chelsea/Chelsea is available at 1.8 and this seems great value to me.

NAP - 1 pt Chelsea HT/FT @ 1.8

Bet 3 - Sporting Gijon v Real Madrid - La Liga, kick off 18:00

Despite the best efforts of Jose Mourinho's defensive tactics, in recent weeks Real Madrid have started scoring some goals, with Cristiano Ronaldo being on fire in recent weeks. Including the game in which the pieces finally came into place for the Portugese duo, the team has scored 21 goals in 5 games. However this has come at a cost, with the team conceding in 4 of those matches. With Gijon scoring in 4 of their 5 home matches this season, I expect both teams to find the net and the Over 3.5 Goals barrier should be broken.

NAP - 1 pt Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.46

Good luck, and happy punting Cool
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