In a hypothetical world from a purely racing point of view and if you could only choose one, would you have 100% exclusivity to Coolmore's stallions or broodmare band?

Mares bred to Frankel

You probably know that Frankel received the best of mares.
There could be no Group winners from Frankel mares rated below, say 70, because mares rated that low would not be allowed to visit Frankel.
Is the reason why "Black type horses are rarely / if ever, conceived from anything below average to begin with." ... because those mares are seldom allowed visit a top stallion.

What is strange is there is only one Group 1 winning mare in the 19 top Frankel runners, no Group 2 winning mare, two Group 3 winning mares, six Listed winning mares.


Mare racing record (in descending rating order of top Frankel sired runners)

Listed winner
Listed winner
Group 3 winner
Listed winner
Listed winner
Unraced
0-100 handicap winner
2nd in a Group 1 (twice)
Grade 3 winner *** (Mirabilis)
Group 1 winner (six times)
Listed winner
0-100 handicap winner (twice)
Maiden winner
Grade 3 winner *** (Mirabilis)
Unraced
Raced in Italy - 4 wins from 32 starts
2nd in a maiden (twice)
Listed winner (twice); 2nd in Gr 1 (twice)

By Justify(USA) out of a Galileo mare (or a Sadlers Wells mare) seems to be Coolmore's preference now.  This seems to be a real attempt at improving the breed by combining a full American dirt pedigree with the Sadlers Wells-Galileo line.

they've been pushing the scat daddy line for a while now but doesn't seem to produce classic horses - they themselves were calling no nay never the new danzig last year. sorry but no.

they've done better with deep impact - a guineas, oaks and derby winner from relatively few horses. i think this is a good strategy given the utter dominance of the sunday silence line in japan. they just need a good son of his at stud - saxon warrior hasn't shown much so far

A_T - Auguste Rodin looked top class before his flop in the King Gworge. Whatever the reason for that, as a son of Deep Impact I think he has every chance to be a good stallion.

Also, Paddington is a horse of exceptional quality and as a son of Siyouni will prove a Godsend for Coolmore's Galileo mares.

cacique
There are a few difficulties with that type of analysis.

The first difficulty is Group races (Graded in USA) only began in 1971.
Cawston's Pride was the first Group winner in the Ascot 1000 Guineas Trial Stakes in 1971.

Horse racing did not begin in 1971.
Many of the races that formed the pattern (Group and Listed) are centuries old.

If you did an analysis to find Group winners out of Group winning dams then you have to say Cawston's Pride was not out of a Group winning dam.
Cawston Tower, her dam, was born in 1956, long before Group or Listed races.

In 2016 I prepared a database of all Group 1, Group 2, Group 3 winners for GB, IRE, FR, ITY, GER from 1900 to 2015.
Obviously the 1900 to 1970 races preceded the pattern, but were included for analysis.
I ignored Listed races because there are about an equal number of Listed races as there are Group 1, Group 2, Group 3 combined.
And I ignored 2nd place and 3rd place finishes in Group and Listed races because that would bring in almost all the horseracing population.

Think about it.
If Group 1 winners is 1 unit, adding Gr2, Gr3 would be make it 3 units, Listed would make it 6 units, and placed horses in Gr1 Gr2, Gr3, Listed would make it 18 units.
There is double counting as horses can win or place in more than one pattern race.

My analysis gave a figure of 13% Group winners are out of Group race winning dams. i.e. 13% of (Gr1 + Gr2 + Gr3 winners) are out of (Gr1 +Gr2+ Gr3 winning dams).
Stated another way, 87% of Group winning horses are out of dams that DID NOT WIN a Group race (they may have been unraced).

You can spice up the stats by taking a smaller number of races, or restricting yourself to one country, or adding in the thousands of USA Graded races that are imo Graded races in name only.

My conclusion is ratings are a better measure of ability for a few reasons.
1. All runners get a rating even if they never contest a pattern race or if they do run in one and are unplaced.
2. Runners in three runner pattern races are considered to have "earned" black type, and you get farces like the walking race that was the three runner 2009 Ormonde Stakes won by Buccellati.
"Crawled along in 2nd until whole field virtually pulled up after 1f, soon took lead at sedate pace"
3. One reasonable performance in one pattern race (uncompetitive / falsely run) is no yardstick to judge a racing career (but is loved by people selling the produce of a horse with a weak black type "qualification".

Thanks for that Kincsem
I do realize the scope is huge and lots of American G1's are not really G1's.

And on your point 3 about the one reasonable performance being the yardstick, unfortunately you can come tailed-off last of 3 in a 3 runner G3 you are black type , and that was reduced from 4th in 1990's, then that's the rules! For all racing (handicaps and black-type in particular) if you cannot finish within a furlong of the winner then you should get a "did not finish"

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But getting back to my Group 1/2/3 query, would Coolmore be better using good G1 mares or unraced/non black-type mares related to a good sire??


Juddmonte used some "unfashionable" sires and got very good horses. Zamindar is a good example, and Dansili is an exceptional example. Observatory not so much.

Maktoum Al Maktoum used In Excess to get the French guineas winner, Aga Khan used Key of Luck to get a king George winner....


But Coolmore never really seem to think outside the box when it comes to their proven G1 produces who are sisters to G1 stallions.

Youresothrilling is a good example. G2 sister to Giants Causeway, produces 2 G1's in first 2 foals (and then Happily 2 foals later)  and they continue to use Galileo! why not use an American/Australian/South American sire and mix up the blood to breed a good racehorse for them to use.


I don't think they valued their top sires that much, given they let Sadlers Wells cover Mayasta 5 times and Galileo covered her as well!!

Chester House was unfortunate to die young, out of an excellent mare!!


You are quite correct on the fear of stepping out of line ,,, and I think every commercial breeder needs to provide what the market wants.

But a non commercial entity (All the Arabs/Aga Khan/Juddmonte/ex Wildenstein/Flaxman/& Coolmore now to a certain extent) are surely looking to better their broodmare band to provide a wide range of animals to win top class races. And the cycle repeats...


Other than a money spinner, and nothing else to do with them, I don't see the purpose of Coolmore National Hunt standing 7 sons of Galileo!!
And then buy in quality stallions, that in another era would be perfectly suitable as flat sires (Crystal ocean/In Swoop/Getaway/Maxios/Ocavango/Vadamos)
Complete short term thinking in my opinion.

cacique
I used In Swoop this year, planning a flat horse, as he is a very attractive price, nice size, good legs, and his race record is excellent.
He might not be hugely popular with NH breeders as he is about 16.1, and they seem to prefer stallions of about 19 hands.

I think this quote in Odds, Sods and Racing Certs by Graham Sharp could also be applied to Coolmore's management of stallions.
"You should treat every horse as a good horse until you know it isn't.  The minute you know that, you should get rid of it, yesterday if possible." David Gandolfo
That is why Coolmore have a good stallion roster, and a good broodmare band.  Sell those you do not want at a good price.

Doing very well with Justify so far -especially with Galileo mares.

AND they didn’t have to squander zillions at the sales to create a ‘buoyant’ market as others stepped up to the plate for a change. Win Win.

How things can change truehoncho! Coolmore have almost a monopoly this year so far apart from the Godolphin wins at Newmarket. O'Brien first 4 in the Derby?? Beckett may well have a good year but so far not much to shout about.

Tbf not all outcross attempts have been successful. War Front was a disaster.

Double this evening. 2 Yr olds are on fire

Didn't take them long to get over the loss of Galileo. I didn't really rate Wootton Bassett to start with but the winners are flowing now. Australia was also a slow burner but now has a dual Derby winner.