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Wilycayote
14 Mar 20 18:29
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Date Joined: 31 Dec 10
| Topic/replies: 467 | Blogger: Wilycayote's blog
Has anyone seen a market for first season sires 2020?

with uncertainty around the racing calendar early in the season I would consider an outsider like Awtaad who might hit his straps when most of the races could be run later in the season.

I hope I'm wrong and racing continues with crown restrictions, as it could be one of the few televised sports continuing, helping gain new interest from a population on lockdown.
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Report sageform March 23, 2020 11:51 AM GMT
2 with runners in the 2.00 at Naas today.
Report Big Black Cat April 4, 2020 5:20 PM BST
Article and odds in the RP.

https://www.racingpost.com/bloodstock/insight/mehmas-the-7-2-favourite-to-be-leading-first-season-sire-by-number-of-winners/429569
Report sageform April 5, 2020 3:10 PM BST
Will there be any more flat racing this year on which to base a championship? There is an article in my paper today listing steps in a gradual return to normality and resuming sport was the last thing on a long list.
Report Big Black Cat April 6, 2020 12:02 PM BST
I think its inconceivable that the flat season would not return in some shape or form, even in the current circumstances.  Current predictions suggest that the peak of the outbreak will happen soon (within 10 days) and even if the season is delayed to June, it will resume, even if behind closed doors.

There's no way that this target of May 1st would have been set without government consultation.  And given the SoS Health has ridden on the flat, and is a Newmarket MP.....??
Report sageform April 6, 2020 2:14 PM BST
Hope you are right but it is the medics who will decide. I would still put my money on August 1 in time for Goodwood.
Report sageform May 1, 2020 4:59 PM BST
The owners of early 2yos and the sires that were advertised to produce them must be sick as parrots by now.
Report Wilycayote May 3, 2020 6:57 PM BST
I think Mehmas, Adaay, Buratino will be disadvantaged by the delayed start. Sires get overly judged on their first year. even if they have a really good second season, the market tends not to care.

cant think off the top of my head, buy can anyone give good examples of stallions that have had really good second seasons but it hasn't really made much difference? Hellvellyn is an example, but there will be many more significant ones (just cant remember them because of this hypothesis!)
Report truehoncho May 4, 2020 6:16 PM BST
It will be an interesting 2yo season. Many of them will be super fit as trainers will try to get in amongst the spoils at the first chance they get with their average ones. It won't be a year for holding them up that's for sure.
I can't help you with that one Wily but to have a good first season you are not normally judges on the horses that run before June. I think there should be plenty of opportunities for the better ones later in the summer and Autumn so if the ones you mentioned are above average they should get the chance to show it.
Report sageform May 6, 2020 12:38 PM BST
Some selected younger sires to compare to Kodiac. His first three seasons were 26 35 32. That is GB flat wins for the calendar year. Some of those below have only completed 2 seasons. Kyllachy is another long established top sire and his were 22 49 97 so he got going quickly.

Australia  9 45
Bungleinthejungle  17 22
Charm Spirit  19 45
Coach House  10 34
Epaulette  17 28 36
Havana Gold  22 38 46
Lethal Force  22 46 54
Mukhadram  9 36
No Nay Never  14 37
Red Jazz  16 19
Society Rock  34 69
Swiss Spirit  18 34 52

So who knows which of those could go on to emulate Kodiac? Society Rock has made a very promising start.
Report Johnny_Mustang May 7, 2020 8:07 AM BST
Society Rock is dead and won't be improving his figures long term.
Report Big Black Cat May 7, 2020 9:54 AM BST
Surprised NNN hasn't had more winners.  Some very high profile winners of course, and well backed by The Lads helps.  I have hairs in 2 NNN's this year, so I'm hoping to add to his tally this year.
Report potentialmillionaire May 7, 2020 11:06 AM BST
I love and am not remotely surprised at the fact that the hottest Stallion on that list is very low down it.
NNN outshined by the two coldest sires around who take the top two slots.
Priceless.
Report Wilycayote May 7, 2020 11:36 AM BST
"numbers of winners" stats are a poor indicator of a stallions abilities. It merely indicates the support a stallion has had, not his ability.

its surprising how many people don't realise this. But i guess if the market had a more sophisticated understanding then there wouldn't be room for a few of us smaller players to kick goals occasionally!
Report truehoncho May 7, 2020 2:31 PM BST
https://www.arion.co.nz/LeadingSires/LeadingSires.aspx

If you go to this site you can get 2yo, 3yo etc but winners, prize money and other variables which may give a different perspective. ( I know most on here will have it but some may find it useful). If you look at NNN for 3yo stakes winners in England and Ireland it (I think) was not great for a £100k stallion. If you take out Ten Sovereigns he looks questionable (at that price).
Report sageform May 8, 2020 8:54 AM BST
Thanks Johnny, Society Rock will be a big loss. Of course group winners are what many breeders are looking for but I still think that a progression of winners from year to year is the precursor to a stallion moving up the prize money ranks. Kodiac did not start as a fashionable sire at all.
NNN may well have very different stats when Irish and French results are included. Galileo is seldom in the top 30 of my list based on GB results and backing his progeny trained in GB is not a profitable exercise. If you break out the 2019 GB flat sire table, Galileo is top on prize money but way down the list on percentage of winners to runners at 29%. The two apparent contradictions are explained by one factor of course-the number of runners trained by Aiden O'Brien that run in GB Group 1 races. They usually win with one of them but there are 4 or 5 losers as well. If you remove the O'Brien horses from the stats, Galileo becomes an also ran other than in the glory years of Frankel and Nathaniel.
I put Australia on the list to show how much a staying sire can improve from first to second crop (no great surprise) but he is still a long way behind Dubawi who produced 93 GB wins in his second season.
Report truehoncho May 8, 2020 9:48 AM BST
A bit of a coincidence, NNN gets a 3yo winner in Germany yesterday.
Report Big Black Cat June 3, 2020 9:51 PM BST
Interesting Rocket Ship at Yarmouth today, The Lir Jet, by Prince of Lir.  Looks a smart colt.

Broke the all aged 5F course record (Fast Ground/Tail Wind).
Report Wilycayote July 4, 2020 6:19 PM BST
Looks like sons of Kodiac might make for better stallions than Dark Angel sons have
Report jim smith July 11, 2020 6:47 PM BST
anyone else have a new bay yearling and getting overexcited already?
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