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30 Mar 18 10:51
Date Joined: 22 Sep 06
| Topic/replies: 41,420 | Blogger: irishone's blog
We have a plan here it is roughly
Looking for a fleminsfirth filly
Going to race it around the west of ireland
Trainer lined up, great trainer of horses
...but cant believe too much of what he says
If you know what i mean
Basically going to enhance our galway experience
How much do yoj think we should be paying
A for the filly and b average monthly training fees
We have 20k lined up and 2000 a month
Syndicate of ten
Got a stable lined up for breeding after retirement
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Report kincsem March 30, 2018 2:06 PM BST
20k lined up is not the same as 20k collected.  Collect 20k.
2k a month.  Collect 10k up front and keep that 10k in reserve.
People promise, then they make excuses.  Yes, they do.

I assume this is jumps.  Not my area.  I am only interested in the flat.
I bought a flat filly for 12k in December.
She has since had a filly foal in February, and was covered by a flat stallion this week. I may run the foal she may now be carrying from the cover.

My suggestion is to buy a mare at a breeding stock sale, and forget about buying one for racing.  You are burning money.
Do not fixate on one sire.  I think you should look in detail at the dam, her dam, and her dam.
Were the dams any good on the racecourse? 
Did any of those three dams produce anything that could run?
I have done a lot of work on flat pedigrees and have plenty of data on sires.  There is not much difference between them.
All sires produce poor runners, but you only hear about the handful of good runners in the advertising.
An example is Frankel.  Plenty of publicity.
I think he covered about 220 mares in his first two seasons, but I only see about 80 runners.
Think of an iceberg.  You only see the top.  The same with sires.

Pay as little as possible for the mare / filly.
More money does not mean more quality.  It just means a bigger mistake.
I paid 12k, and could have got her for about 7k but there was opposition from a buyer from north Africa.
She sold for 115k at a yearling sale, joint sale topper, but never ran.
Before I bought her she had two foals so I knew she could produce.

Many horses do not sell at sales.  This does not mean they are no good.
Review these non-sellers at the sale and make an offer for one you like.  Do the negotiations yourself.
I think it is a mistake to hand a trainer 20k and ask him to buy a horse.
Anyone in the business will know someone trying to offload a bad horse.
You might pay 20k for a horse selling for 2k.  The difference is shared.  It has happened.

If it is a mare for breeding it is best if she has produced already imo.
One attraction of the mare I bought was the two sires who covered her previously were wrong for her imo (the pedigree should not imo have produced good horses and it didn’t). 
Another positive was she had lived all her life at a top class stud so she would have had the best stabling, food, veterinary.

Before I made my mare choice I downloaded spreadsheet catalogue data on ~2000 mares selling on the inexpensive days at the Goffs, Tattersalls, Arqana breeding stock sales.
I added other sires and dams to make up the six generation pedigrees for all the ~2,000 broodmares on offer.
Then I got the pedigrees of the 600 cheapest stallions in IRE, GB, FR, GER and made up about 1,200,000 test-matings (2000 mares x 600 stallions) to see "planned" foal pedigrees.
Remember you are not buying a broodmare.  You are really buying the foals he will produce.
About 86% of the 1.2 million test-matings were very poor in my test data.
After further thinning out I concentrated on about 500 (or 0.04%).
One stallion / broodmare combination stood out (in theory).
We phoned the stallion stud in Ireland and booked him.
Then two weeks later the stud owner went to Deauville, France, and bought the mare.

The foal she hopefully is now carrying from the cover this week might be useless, but I am happy to do it my way.
I think I will need to repeat this mating (with the chosen stallion) about four times or more to get two colts and two fillies.
Out of 4+ foals I might get one good colt or filly.
Many mare owners do a sort of stallion bingo where they switch every year trying to get lucky.
All they are saying is they have no plan, or they are following fashion, trying to produce what is popular and will sell.

My boarding stud owner preferred to view 10 or 20 mares at the sales and pick one.
I did not want this as I expected the same result as everyone else – a poor foal.

A while back I downloaded all the ~ 450 yearlings sold at a yearling sale, and followed them to find out their names (they were sold unnamed as yearlings), and racing records.
Only about 15 made a racing profit that was reasonable (auction price minus racing earnings).
I did not deduct anything for training costs, probably 20k x 2 years average.

Sorry if this is too long.
Report kincsem March 30, 2018 5:58 PM BST
From Odds, Sods and Racing Certs by Graham Sharpe
“You should treat every horse as a good horseuntil you know it is’nt.  The minute you know that, you should get rid of it, yesterday if possible.”  David Gandolfo (trainer)

From The Tesios as I knew them by Mario Incisa della Rochetta
(the author was the business partner of Italian breeder and trainer, Federico Tesio, probably the greatest breeder ever)
“Before a major race Tesio would often subject a contender to two trials over the full distance.
Sometimes both trials would take place within a week of the race.
Each time Tesio’s attitude seemed to be “make or break” (often “break” is exactly what they did).
By June, Tesio knew the value of his horses.
He sold those which were worth little and sold them well for they were unexposed on the racecourse although they had been thoroughly
tried on the gallops early in the morning when only he knew the weights of reach and the orders given to the work-riders.”

People will take your 20k and give you a horse, and there will be a queue.
Report potentialmillionaire March 30, 2018 6:11 PM BST
Pedigrees are so important but unfortunately for the theorists it IS the mare that has most influence on the foal whether the paperwork lovers think so or not.

It IS the mare that can be brilliant or useless despite the best efforts to select her mate.

It IS the mare that may be vile tempered, unsound, ill equipped to successfully breed or nurture.

You must purchase the best possible individual you can and then only then mate her well.

Bad mares will always remain just that and any amount of clever mating doesn't do anything but prove ruinous to the pocket.
Purchasing her purely on the genes you desire for her future offspring Is not nearly enough.

If you cannot effectively  judge a mare stood in front of you then you do need expert help I'm afraid.

And don't restrict to one sire!
Report kincsem March 30, 2018 6:40 PM BST
I collected ratings for 160,000 horses and compared their six generation pedigrees to those ratings.
Then I tested the results statistically, and found links, positive and negative, between factors in pedigrees and ratings.
About a year after that work I searched for an inexpensive mare and sent her to the stallion that I think is the best match for her in theory.
Of course I do not know if the result will be positive.
What worked for very large numbers in the past may not be reflected in a one horse test.
I am not in the business, and have nothing to sell.
Report kincsem March 30, 2018 7:21 PM BST
I did mention earlier that I went to the trouble of checking how all the yearlings sold at a flat yearling sale fared afterwards in their racing careers.
Some I could not trace (130 of 462).  They may have been exported, but I suspect the majority of the that 130 did not reach the racecourse.

Those who did race incurred training costs for two or three years.  My guess is two years was more usual than three.
You should deduct about 2 x 20k = €40k training costs from the P/L each € to get the real Profit & Loss for each horse
Obviously the unraced/untraced horses probably did not incur that level or training costs, perhaps six months or less.
But the 52 profitable horses €17,996 profit average before training costs, less estimated training of €40,000 would have been unprofitable.
And the 242 unprofitable horses €16,521 loss average before training costs, would have heavy losses of about €56,500 is you deduct two years training.

Now, were these horses selected at yearling sales by experts?
Fwiw the two most profitable horses (top 10) were bought by the same person.
That yearling sale might be a once off.
Perhaps if I analysed another yearling sale fully I might find a different picture.
This analysis takes time, lots of time tracing each horse.

A Yearling Sale…………...…..……….……..Lots……….Earnings €……….Price €………..Profit/Loss €……….P/L each €   
Profit before training (top 10)…………10……….3,018,866……..….408,500…….…..2,610,366...    
Profit before training…………………….…52……….1,585,503……..….649,700...    
Loss before training………….....….…….242……….1,196,896……….5,195,000………..-3,998,104…...…….-16,521   
Unraced / Untraced……………..………..130……....…….0,000…..…….1,624,300………..-1,624,300……..….-12,495   
Withdrawn from sale………….….……..28……...…...….0,000………...….….0...    
All lots at sale…………...………….……..462……..….5,801,265…..……....    
average for yearlings…………….....……1……………..….12,557……...…...    

You might think the average loss of €4,494 is not too bad, we can live with that.

But 10 horses made a profit of €2,610,366 less say 10 x €40k training = €2,610,366 - €400,000 = €2,210,366 profit
And 424 horses (52+242+130) made a loss of €4,686,601  less say 294 (52+242) x €40k training = €4,686,601 + €11,760,000 = €16,446,601 loss on 424 horses (52+242 races; 130 unraced/untraced)
Report irishone March 30, 2018 9:26 PM BST
this is brilliant thanks lads ....
Report Posh Paddy March 30, 2018 9:51 PM BST
Here’s my two cents worth.

2,000 a month is plenty especially in Ireland. I’d say 1,500 would be enough.  Also remember you won’t be racing for 12 months, 9 months max.

When it comes to the budget for the animal, you’ll probably be best off deciding on the budget and working to it. Only you and your other Syndicate members know how much you can afford.

I would echo what others have said, don’t restrict yourself to one Sire and pay particular attention to the Dam side of the pedigree.  If you go chasing fashionable Sires you will in all likelihood end up overpaying.

I’d rather have a smashing individual by a unsexy Sire than one by a fashionable Sire   with a leg in each county.

Also why are you only after a filly?  Is it cost or do you fancy yourselves as breeders?   Nothing wrong with the aspiration but it’s a long road especially in the NH game especially if you find out you’ve bred a dud at the end of it.

Again as PM said, get some help if confirmation is not your area of expertise when visiting the sales.

One thing that does worry me is your choice of trainer “Great Trainer of horses, but you can’t believe too much of what he says”.  I’m not sure I’d want to be giving 18-24k of my money to someone who I did n’t trust to tell me the truth!
Report irishone April 1, 2018 12:13 AM BST
thanks paddy
Report Posh Paddy April 1, 2018 10:39 AM BST
You welcome.  I just realized that stated your budget is €20k. 

Just one thing to remember is that whatever you pay you’ll have VAT (9%), Sales Company Commission (6%) and if you use one, Bloodstock Agent Commission (typically 5%) to pay on top.

All of a sudden your €20k becomes €24k Shocked.  It’s just something to bear in mind.  Best of luck.
Report ffs April 13, 2018 2:07 PM BST
don't let anyone buy the horse for you, also what Kincsem said (and get a Presenting)
Report ffs April 13, 2018 2:16 PM BST
also, I've seen some really good racemares coming from Goresbridge at a fraction of that price - look for something with good conformation, maybe a bit smaller than you'd like but
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