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Irish Whisper
01 Feb 17 17:40
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Date Joined: 22 Aug 02
| Topic/replies: 123 | Blogger: Irish Whisper's blog
This in-depth analysis of the sale results of this year's first-season sires may be of interest.

http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/which-freshman-sire-will-make-the-biggest-impact-in-2017/
Pause Switch to Standard View Which sire will come out on top with...
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Report Johnny_Mustang February 3, 2017 12:35 PM GMT
These are the very same mugs who last year suggested, ahem, Casamento, Bated Breath, Sepoy and Nathanial.

Paul the Octopus could have done better.
Report Big Black Cat February 3, 2017 8:57 PM GMT
I very much liked INTELLO on the racecourse and will be very interested to see how his stallion career develops
Report Irish Whisper February 4, 2017 9:13 AM GMT
It isn't a tipping service, Johnny. It's analysis of sale results that aims to give the reader a more complete view of how the sire's fared. People can make up their own minds after that.

Those are hardly the best examples to throw stones at either. Granted Nathaniel was a bust, but Casamento/Bated Breath did grand for sire's whose progeny would be expected to improve at three and Sepoy had an excellent season.
Report potentialmillionaire February 4, 2017 10:43 AM GMT
Well done for standing your ground Irish!

I think JohnnyM's comments were a bit knee jerk but I suppose that is very representitive of how the industry is.

Perception is everything and few people actually get into any great analysis of what has actually gone down and what might of precipitated it.

Problem is though with so few sires actually making it and fewer still making it and being liked (think poor old Champs Elysees and the like), the race to find the next star is all and the disappearance of the majority is taken as failure even though this isn't necessarily the case.

The knees keep jerking and sort of morph into fact!
Report proxygene February 4, 2017 12:02 PM GMT
Ah the Sepoy defence squad :)
Report proxygene February 4, 2017 12:03 PM GMT
Which admittedly I would side with.
Report The Gotchee February 6, 2017 9:41 PM GMT
Montjeu was a great racehorse but as a stallion his progeny are stamina laden. Look at his stallion sons, Authorised, Hurricane Run,Motivator,Jukebox Jury etc. It is my opinion that Camelot did not inherit his "speed" from Montjeu. I suspect that Camelot's speed came from the damside, something that the author disappointingly failed to touch on. The damside is all speed,with Kingmambo,Mr. Prospector and the great Miesque featuring in the immediate family. There is very little chance that Montjeu influenced very much speed into Camelot as he is very nearly National Hunt bred himself, by Sadlers Wells out of a Top Ville mare. To suggest that Bracelet was another one of his progeny to buck the trend, by winning a 7f Group race is stretching it slightly. She won a heavy ground Guineas trial against moderate opposition. 5 weeks later she finished 14/17 in the Newmarket Guineas. She went on to run twice more winning the Ribblesdale and Irish Oaks both over 1mile and 4 furlongs.
When working out the median and average of sales results it is always important to see who is buying the progeny. In nearly all cases Coolmore and their close associates  have a strategy of paying "top dollar" for the progeny of their first season sires. This tactic tends to inflate the averages and medians and usually gives a false positive.
This gives them the comfort of significantly raising the stud fee before a runner sees a racecourse.
From all the data available I suspect that Camelot is going to be the sire of late developing middle distance runners.
On the list published, I like Red Jazz, he is my idea of the type of freshman that will do well this year.
Report Irish Whisper February 7, 2017 10:32 AM GMT
Montjeu was mated was dozens of mares with far more speed in their pedigrees than Camelot, yet he still only produced two horses that won a Group race over a mile or shorter at three or older in Europe. That is an exceptionally strong trend, one which indicates that he stamps all of his stock with his stamina regardless of what the mare is bred to do. That is why the dam side of Camelot's pedigree wasn't touched on, as it isn't overly relevant given the body of evidence that Montjeu's stats provide.

Not sure how including Bracelet is stretching it, as facts are facts, she won a Group 3 over seven furlongs as a three-year-old.

The potential for sale's results to mislead is mentioned in the article. FWIW, and obviously time will reveal all with who the horses end up with, but Coolmore (wholly or in partnership) only signed for six of Camelot's 50 highest-priced yearlings.
Report TellTheKing February 9, 2017 6:19 PM GMT
PP have priced up this market
Report Irish Whisper February 10, 2017 8:58 AM GMT
Thanks, TTK. Here is how they bet:

Dawn Approach 10/3
Declaration Of War 10/3
Epaulette 7/2
Camelot 9/2
Society Rock 8/1
Lethal Force 8/1
Intello 12/1
Red Jazz 14/1
Any Other Sire 14/1
Havana Gold 20/1

Right then lads, which way would you lean at those prices??
Report The Headmaster February 10, 2017 1:27 PM GMT
Re where did Camelot get his amazing speed from.....firstly you need to establish if he had any.  The 3yos of 2012 would be in the bottom three crops of my racing lifetime and the Guineas he won was a horror story, as was his Derby.  I wonder how many of the other Guineas staged in the last 20 years people think Camelot could have won?  Hope I'm wrong as this is Montjeu's last chance of finding a son to carry on the good work, but I fear a few people are going to drop their conkers on him.
Report neill d February 10, 2017 1:38 PM GMT
Camelot, Intello, Dawn Approach and Declaration of War were actual racehorses so I will be pulling for them.

Camelot has a great chance, think he could go to the top and belatedly bury the sire of sires thing.
Report Wilycayote March 2, 2017 3:45 PM GMT
Bl**dy hell. The boring Tweenhills round-robin emails have started again telling us how the Havana Gold's are catching pigeons. I thought they might have learned from last year's "storm" that was "brewing" for Harbour Watch. I was bored of the horse even before he had a runner!

On a separate note...I wonder if this year's Brocklesby winner will be at stud in 11 months time !?
Report Johnny_Mustang March 3, 2017 7:05 PM GMT
Here's the betting:

https://beta.racingpost.com/bloodstock/bloodstock-news/camelot-heads-racebets-market-for-championship-honours/276802
Report Posh Paddy March 3, 2017 9:25 PM GMT
Kind of surprised the Camelot is favourite in this market as Dawn Approach would seem the obvious choice. 

Although I'll plump for Lethal Force who despite being a maiden at 2 was decent enough, has the numbers to make his presence felt and is a bit of value at 11-1.
Report potentialmillionaire March 3, 2017 10:10 PM GMT
Wily, I think you're being a bit naive here. Surely if they retire this years Brocklesby winner immediately he can still cover for three quarters of 2017? Bush bash bosh as I believe the phrase goes,
I reckon that the bookies are trying to rev up Camelot as obviousish to take punters for their ride good and early.
I have had a bit to do with one and early it ain't.
Report truehoncho March 3, 2017 10:34 PM GMT
Does anyone think Cityscape will do any good?
Report Johnny_Mustang March 4, 2017 8:41 AM GMT
No, can't have Cityscape at all. This year's Nathaniel.
Report Big Black Cat March 4, 2017 10:26 AM GMT
CAMELOT has no doubt been well bred to some very nice mares, so obviously that give him a big chance.  But surely he will get late maturing types, rather that Royal Ascot ones?

Headmaster, just had a look at Camelot's guineas, and it is an utter car crash of a race, full of horses whom are not exactly household names (yet some of whom have made it to stud).  Frankly, how the rating were worked out on that race is utterly mystifying to me-but that is a separate issue.

I have already said I'm rooting for INTELLO, but he may well also produce the late maturing type. SOCIETY ROCK on the other hand is a bit speedier and at the prices, may be a bit of value.
Report truehoncho March 12, 2017 4:08 PM GMT
I hope we see a few by Maxios running over here this year. I am also looking forward to seeing Camelot's 2yo's.
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