Frankel watch

Cunco (Frankel ex Chrysanthemum) entered at Newbury on Friday for Gosden.

Good start

Do you ever get the feeling that the first runners of any expensive sire are a bit stage managed?
The good ones are first out of the traps, win, the advertising trumpets are blown, then the other runners appear.

I agree it does happen when a select few have most of the nominations, as with Frankel. The other end of the scale is Bated Breath and Harbour Watch, 10 runners each no winners. I never thought BB would be a precocious sire but with HW what else would you have tried to breed in if not 2yo's? It doesn't look good for him, even this early in the season.

good one = Royal Ascot (promote trainer)

bad one = do not run got to keep the owner paying the fees

Stage managed perhaps, but they still have to be capable of winning and Cunco looked very green but still won going away.

Second Frankel 2yo runs today at 2.40 Haydock.

well beaten

Beaten yes but a very promising debut, running on strongly. I will certainly be backing it over 7 furlongs.

He's going well

The first filly looked pretty useful although it didn't look a strong race. It will be the second runs from the three Frankel offspring that will tell us how good they are. It could be the autumn before we see the best ones though.

another today , 4 from 5 i believe

His first Pattern winner today with the very promising FAIR EVA-and many more to come no doubt!

Looked an exceptional filly with the best time rating of the whole card.

First and third in the Lowther not too shabby.

But not necessarily in the right order sageform!

There were few form lines to compare the two, only hype made the market. they might not finish in the same order over a different distance or in 8 months time but nobody seems to be saying that Fair Eva was unlucky on the day. The Frankel offspring I like was the Cumani trained Aljezerah who stayed a mile well on debut. Majoris has a chance to add a Group 3 to the tally today.

Jockey reported she ran flat.  She was very hyped after a visually impressive victory at Ascot, but even if she ran flat she's still pretty good at least.  Another furlong or two will bring out further improvement  on would think as you say.

i see coolmore have a Frankel running tomorrow , go on the lads

Atty Persse looked yet another good son of Frankel today.

two more Frankel runners today in the same race at Newbury. Will they be risked on soft/heavy though? Swiss Storm was well backed on debut but looked slow to me so I will be having a small bet on Alfawaris.

Got it wrong in that Swiss Storm has improved massively from first run or the opposition today were much inferior to those at Haydock. Alfawaris was very weak in the market but ran OK and might prefer good ground.

FRANKEL, 63% strike rate so far. cherry pick ,swiss storm ,frankuus, toulifaut, queen kindly.2,00 today, gosden /havlin in profit 2yr olds track.

Monarchs Glen narrowly beaten at Goodwood but still a very good debut over 9 furlongs.

fair eva ,weekend not worth it odds on.

Eminent 6/1! Made my day. Just shows that the market still discounts less well known trainers even when Frankel is involved. One of his most promising colts yet.

cash cow.wd

Sorry Sageform, I think your wrong on this one. Not much of a looker and played up quite a lot in the pre parade ring. It turned out a poor race (although I accept he won it well enough). Over a second slower than the nursery and carried 4lb less than the winner. He may well improve but if he turns out one of his best F wont be £125k for long. The form of this race won't hold up.

I see Godolphin have bought Atty Perse trained by Roger Charlton. Interesting given their recent announcements regarding their bloodstock operations.

I know that Sheikh Mo doesn't use many Coolmore stallions but not sure about his Juddmonte policy.

Presumably if he wanted a few Frankels he could just go to the odd sale and she'll out a bit of that chump change from his bank account.

truehoncho, I am happy to read and note your observations from on course. I also note that the jockey recommended putting Eminent away until next year which suggests he is still backward and not ready to go up in class yet. I don't see him as a Guineas horse at all but over a longer distance he might be very good. He raced wide without cover yesterday but came past his rivals without seeming to be put under any pressure. We will see how good his opposition was in due course.

Fair Eva exposed now as only a Group 3 filly and surely not a Guineas winner.

Its easy to be wise after the event sageform (and this is not aimed at you) but there was a very good post in the Ante Post forum discussing how Fair Eva's rating after Ascot was based on the ratings of those finishing behind her being increased way beyond normal for horses beaten in a race....

She has been beaten fair and square the last two races-at York by a pretty decent filly, and who knows about this filly today?

However the bubble has been well and truly burst today, and she is a decent filly but no world beather.

Hi Sageform, I think that's fair.

BBC, I couldn't agree more. I had her many pounds below the silly official rating but kept it to myself as I would have been a 'Frankel Basher'. She is a nice looking filly and did get a little warm today but I'm not sure it made much of a difference. She looks more like a sprinter to me and I would maybe bring her back to 6F next year.

The 2 IS's in the last maiden looked good but the one that finished 2nd may well go on to be better, he was a real strong looker.

truehoncho-I too am not in the business of bashing Frankel-he was an outstanding colt-his record on the racecourse bears the closest inspection and scrutiny.

He has also had a very good start to his career at stud, with a number of very promising maiden winners and a couple of group performers at this early stage.

Its just the hype does not, as yet, match up to the overall achievements.  Of course, should Queen Kindly win tomorrow and give him a Group 1 winner in his first crop, there will be plenty of trumpet blowing.....and deservedly so.

Especially as his potential Classic horses for next year will be making their debuts soon (you would hope.

queen kindly has lesley wards to beat gl.?

Queen Kindly completing a disappointing weekend for Frankel.  Too bad to be true it would seem according to the trainer.

Possible that the filly was over the top, but that remains to be seen next year.

If there has been one common thread with the Frankel's so far it is a high level of ability that they can mostly show first time but little improvement from that first effort. The Elsworth horse Swiss Storm seemed to improve but time will tell if that was an illusion.
None of the ones that have won over 6 furlongs have really gone on. Cunco, Fair Eva and Queen Kindly have all gone backwards after 2 or 3 good runs. The staying types have mostly only run in maidens so it is too early to judge. Although Frankel had a lot of speed, he only raced over 7 furlongs 3 times as a 2yo and actually started over a mile so it is logical that his progeny will be more middle distance or stayers than anything else.

Apologies, he ran over 7 furlongs in the Greenham at 3yo but after that it was a mile of further.

Queen Kindly didn't look great in the paddock and it surprised me after trainers comments. She has a great back end on her and she could be a good sprinter next year. Let's hope so. Best looking filly won the Cheveley Park. I will be betting her for the Guineas.

Frankel has had very few runners so far. His brothers won group races over 12f - Frankel's best types will be seen over middle distances not in 2yo 6f races.

Toulifaut had a bit of a shocker there for her new owners (E1.9M's worth too).

Surely better than that though.

Seven Heavens last in the Dewhurst today (guess who sired the winner), and Cunco second in a listed race at HQ.

Not an especially good couple of weeks for F and Juddmonte.

9f group 3 winner in chantilly today for frankuus ( sired by frankel )

That will cheer them up a bit!

They'd want to see some nice types in maidens in the next few weeks or they will be a quite early 3yo season away from a fee drop.

Mixed result at Newmarket with Seven Heavens very disappointing, Cunco running well over 10 furlongs and Frankuus winning in France.
Monarchs Glen should be another winner today while Count Octave is another newcomer to watch.

they will be a quite early 3yo season away from a fee drop

That's got going to happen for a while -  more likely to go up given the good number of stakes winners so far. Mr Magnier bought 2 for over a million each at Tattersalls he must like what he is seeing.

What ever they do with him next year he will be private in 2018 (to hide a reduction). Definitely won't make a champion stallion, not even close. He has nothing that will be competing for the classics next year (a plodder might turn up for the Leger. Very disappointing bunch of 2yo's. My guess is that in 10 years time  he will be a Buckpasser or a Secretariat with all the good mares he's got.

Interesting point of view! His percentage of winners is very high and we may not have seen the best ones run yet. My main reservation is the lack of progress from his progeny after 2 or 3 runs but that could be immaturity. Just 3 out of 26 runners rated below 64 so far.

Icespire yet another first time win for Frankel.

That is a proper fto winner as well as she's trained by a man who doesn't rev them up. Bodes well, nice filly, maybe the most promising of his I've seen so far watching the tape.

Another promising filly-and post race the vibes/comments were very positive.

We shall see.

if you look at Galileo's first season at stud, his best progeny red rocks won his maiden in April as a 3 year old, Nightime won her maiden in April as a 3 year old, Sixties Icon won his maiden in May as a 3 year old, Allegretto won her maiden in june as a 3 year old, Galatee won her maiden in April as a 3 year old. This i would consider to be a good first set of progeny and none of these had won as a two year old Galileo himself ran once as a two year old near the end of October.
Teofilo one of Galileo's most forward sons, a lot of his best progeny dont debut to at least October as a 2 year old.
So i do not buy in to the theory you would expect to see Frankels best products already on the track. I would judge frankels first season progeny this time next year. I am actually surprised to see how many horses have already seen the track, never mind also won.

Good point jockey although Frankel himself was a very good 2yo and won on debut. He was so good however that he could have been very backward as a 2yo and still done that. Compare Sea The Stars who was beaten first time out.

Jockeyhunter-fair point, well made.

However, Frankel may have been a backward 2 yo but he did win a Royal Lodge and a Dewhurst!  So not that backward! 

I agree that some of his better animals may not have been seen yet.

But if you are at Juddmonte, and I came to interview you about him, without any recording devices, would you not be, if really honest, a teeny weeny bit disappointed on what he's produced on track so far?

You are asking breeders to shell out £125K after all-you want to breed classic winners and Group 1 animals for that sort of dosh? And usually that means they need to have a 2yo campaign?

Judging Frankel as a sire can't be done imo until he has had a minimum of three crops raced and retired.

BBC
1. I would argue Frankel was very green even in his first few starts as a three year old. Re watch his Dewhurst win at 2, you would think it was his first start.
2. All the reports early in the season was most trainers were finding that there Frankel progeny was very backward, its very interesting that a good numer of the Frankels that went through the ring as yearlings are actually the ones that have seen the track so far.
3. If i was at Juddmonte, i am sure i would actually have a fair idea.
4. Galileo's fee i believe was dropped after his first before the soaring after horses having success at 3 and the odd two year olds in his 2nd season like Teofilo.

I am not sure about this whole two year old obsession, after spending a number of years in Australia breeders and owners are obsessed by early season two year olds chasing the riches of the magic millions and golden slipper. Very few of these make 3 year olds, nevermind 4+. Meaning there older age groups and middle distance racing is so weak. It makes for a very bland product in my opinion.

Maybe this obsession is creeping in to our racing hence the increasing influence of Australian stallions in Europe, i understand ownership is a very expensive hobby and/or business and i understand people want a quicker return on investment especially the number of syndicates that ere around and make racing accessible to more people. Its also possible that peoples attention span is reducing and would rather watch 60 secs of racing instead of 2 minutes!!

Jockeyhunter-again fair points well made.

I don't know what the figures are but I'm pretty sure the vast majority of Classic winners have a 2 yo campaign-I remember Commander in Chief being a notable exception.

And I'm sure if we had to fork out 15-20K to keep a 2yo in training without him running, we'd be getting a bit antsy?

We'd all love one good enough to be a stallion, so no 2 yo campaign makes you less commercially viable perhaps?  We are actually seeing colts retiring at the end of their 2 yo carers now to go to stud after all.

Its not the bee all and end of course.  If you offered me a late season maiden as a 2yo win followed by a classic or two as a 3 yo then of course, I'd be very happy

ruler of the world had no 2 year old starts, harzand only won his maiden in march, Makfi ran once as a two year old before winning the Guineas!!

I am not saying Frankel will be a success as stallion, i just think it is far to soon to judge a stallion with such breeding to be judged by their two year olds seen before 11th October. Dubawi another stallion you would not judge purely on 2 year old successes

Of course, its far too soon to judge him as a stallion-I think kincsem is pretty much right about the timeframes involved.

But given all the hype/trumpet blowing surrounding him, I'm sure they would have liked to see a little bit more than they have up to now?

Agreed about Dubawi-that was his first 2 yo G1 winner in the Marcel Bousac last weekend I believe-has has the luxury of plenty of other G1 performers though (of course this is Frankels first crop to see a racecourse, never mind as 3 yo)

I doubt very much if the best Frankel of this crop comes from one that didn't run as a 2yo (possible of course). Comparing him to other stallions is pointless, absolutely none of them got the book he got in his first year. He is going to be a good stallion but not a champion. His stock are not the best lookers and flighty. He may have got away with that but there won't be many as good as him to get over that. I'm not even sure why anybody thinks it's anything other than a disappointing season for him.His stock have been with the best trainers and been treated like gold dust (Gosden got Cunco ponied down at Newmarket!) and they ALL would have been prepared to do themselves total justice first time out. The filly that won yesterday was a nice filly but not anything that would change your view on his season so far.

Way too soon to make any definitive judgement. He has only had 21 runners. One reason could be the unraced are all poor. Another that they need more time. His brothers were 12f stakes winners - Frankel's best will be middle distance horses. At Tattersalls only Dubawi attracted more interest (Sheikh Mohammed trying to buy the Holy Grail) - with John Magnier the biggest buyer of Frankel's. Of course there is a lot of hype around his progeny but these buyers aren't flighty types looking to jump on a bandwagon.

Frankel is bred for middle distances.  His speed over a mile was the result of his sheer freakishness; the fact Kind (out of a Lancashire Oaks-winning Rainbow Quest mare) ended up a sprinter was her headstrong nature which is manifesting itself in Frankel's offspring, especially the colts as it did in him himself until Henry taught him to settle.

His first season figures compare similarly - slightly better, in fact - at this stage to the previous undisputed champion to retire to stud Sea The Stars, who ended his freshman season with 12 2yo winners around the world (including in that bastion of top class racing...Russia) and one solitary G3 winner.  And he's not doing too badly for himself with a Derby, an Oaks/King George and a hugely impressive German Derby winner to his name already.

Cracksman very impressive at Newmarket. Came from some way back with ease against some well bred opposition. The other Frankel. Alfawaris looked big and unfurnished do will proably be a better 3yo.

Not sure about Alfawaris but this was definitely the best Frankel debut performance (colt). Really nice nice looking colt and didn't piss around in the prelims and stuck his head out like a classy thing at the end. It was a good field and a few of them were bet including the Sea The Stars colt that ran ok. It was worth a rating over 80 and I hope he improves as he was such a nice type. Not sure he is G1,or can get past some of these nice Galileo's or Dubawi's next year, but a good one all the same. The Shamardal colt that won the earlier 7f maiden was lovely and looked and maybe good enough for group races up to a mile next year.

Cracksman's time was very close to that of Dreamfield and he carried 3lb more so I am rating him at 90+ and await the RPR. The next Frankel to take the stage tomorrow is UAE King out of Zomeradah so a half brother to Dubawi and three fillies rated well over 100. If Frankel is exceptional as a sire, UAE King could be Group 1.

Interestingly USE King's brother is entered in a 3m handicap hurdle at Ayr on Monday

Two more by Frankel start their career today. Commander at Newbury and Mirage Dancer at Doncaster. UAE King still looks the standout on breeding although both of the others have siblings rated 100 plus.

Mirage Dancer another winner but the 2 at Newbury disappointing.

Most of them seem to lack a bit of tactical pace to me.

Often the case that when a champion is bred to stay further than they win at as Frankel was, the progeny revert to type which in his case will be to stay, particularly as many of the mares sent to him are middle distance. I would like to see some really fast mares going to him and then we might see a really high class miler. Sea The Stars by Cape Cross was bred to be very good at a mile plus which he was but most of his progeny seem to be real dour staying types.

Another at Newmarket tomorrow Elyasaat.

grade 3 filly winner in japan

This may be of interest. It is a in-depth analysis of how Frankel's first runners fared:

http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/oped-how-did-frankel-fare-with-his-first-runners/

Irish Whisper-thanks for posting-an interesting read.

There's no doubting that the numbers quoted show Frankel in a positive light-the percentage of his offspring rated well above average is better than all the other first season sires-and he has had some group performers of course.

But then I would contend that given the book of mares he covered you would expect this?

Most other first season sires weren't £125K a pop either.

I do sound like a terrible Frankel basher on here and I do apologise because I'm not.  He was an outstanding racehorse but SO FAR the hype has not been matched by his progeny on the racecourse. There's nothing looking like an OBVIOUS classic contender so far.

That of course does not mean there are several really good types waiting in the wings as a 3 yo of course.

Unlikely to be any top class Frankels seen on the all weather but Harba is an interesting runner at Wolvs this evening. Gorgeous Noora by Ravens Pass out of Aneedah might be better suited by the surface. Both cost £300k plus so it will be very disappointing for connections if neither of them win this.

PROCONSUL a full brother to FRANKEL was beaten in a maiden at St Cloud today (second start).

would he not have been better comparing him to similar champion horses,

just using this, the Cartier Horse of the year comparison is:

sea the stars
Dylan Thomas
Hurricane Run
Dalakhani
Rock of Gibraltar
Fantastic Light
Giants Causeway
Daylami
Dream Well
Peintre Celebre
Helissio
Barathea
Arazi

Not a great bunch so he don't have to do much to beat them

Not much of a Royal Ascot for him. I think the writing's on the wall.

As i expected, Frankel is now getting some nice staying 3yo's and it might pay to wait until this time next year before making judgement. Nathaniel is also showing his worth as his staying 3yo's mature.

If you're getting stayers, they need to be winning the Arc at that fee! He is going to be more Cape Cross than Galileo by the looks of it.

As in, he will get good ones (be doing well to do what CC did), but they will need time.

The ones that ran at 2yo have on the whole gone backwards. Probably rushed to get them on the track last year.

Most seem to want a trip, but also pull, which is a bad combination to me; throw in his best performer Eminent not being very tractable, and possibly being better with a bit of cut. It doesn't look great.

Saw one of Aidan's run the other night, San Remio or something, 90 odd rated, looked all of the above and that has been the typical Frankel to me. The Johnston horse that won the Group race recently defo wants cut to be at his best. I don't know what they're going to do with him to be honest, but the fee needs to drop, doing that and saving face is the thing.

Its a testament to how good a trainer Cecil as that he harnessed that massive ability, he could have been lost in the shuffle elsewhere. What he might have done with a horse like Dream Castle!

I'm not au fait with the types of mares he's been bred with (apart from them being well bred animals)but is there a bias of his mares being staying types?

I wonder if that's the case, they'd be better off 'doing a Galileo' with him and start breeding him with speedier types to get some more speed in-Galileo is of course very much an influence for stamina, and although Frankel was not short of speed of course, he stayed well despite his dam being a sprinter?

Just a thought-what do I know!