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01 May 16 20:50
Date Joined: 28 Jun 10
| Topic/replies: 2,100 | Blogger: paulypaul's blog
Son of Paco Boy..the needle in the haystack. Will paco's price go up?
Pause Switch to Standard View Galileo Gold - Paco Boy
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Report proxygene May 1, 2016 10:06 PM BST
Without doubt.

Am already looking for a plan B I will be able to afford.
Report kincsem May 2, 2016 8:55 AM BST
Northern Dancer only one in his pedigree as far as I can see which is unusual these days.
Cape Town (119); Green's Fearneley (103); Regiment (104) the best from second dam Rossaldene.
I see three by Desesrt Style of of the dam Tappen Zee: Paco Boy (127); Fuel Cell (75); Zacholiv (84).
Report potentialmillionaire May 3, 2016 1:35 PM BST
When a stallion is in the grip of a substantial wave of negativity I think one swallow will not necessarily make his summer.

I think that it might mean the deals are not as steep as they once were but the published fee might not necessarily take a hit, but the amount that comes off it perhaps will.
Report kincsem May 5, 2016 7:22 PM BST
I see on the Racing Post website that Galileo Gold's trainer, Hugo Palmer, says they had the horse tested by Equinome/ University College Dublin, and the horse is a C.C.
The horse will not go to the Derby as that is beyond his distance capability.

Many thanks to the connections for getting the horse tested and revealing the results.  I wish more would follow this wonderful attitude to the racing public.
Report truehoncho May 5, 2016 10:38 PM BST
Sorry Kincsem I just don't buy it. If they had wanted to run it they would have. The fact they took the test tells me they bottled it and were looking for excuses to duck a beating. HP and Frankie were all for running it but the owners are more interested in not getting it beaten.
I find it defeatist in the extreme that GG isn't going to give it a try. The science is far too young to be infallible no matter what they say. You may never get another chance at the Derby. I hope to god that other connections are more sporting in the future. Shame on the lot of them.
Report kincsem May 6, 2016 9:01 AM BST
Before the 2000 Guineas I had Galileo Gold as C.C? in my database i.e. I thought by looking at the horses in he pedigree he was probably a C.C but I couldn't be sure.
From the Equinome site about 2% of C.C horses win at 9-10 furlongs, 0% win at 12 furlongs and further.

truehoncho your post makes no sense.
You want the owners to remain ignorant of the distance capabilities of their horse and run it in the Derby to find out instead of paying £495 for a test to be certain it is a non-stayer at 12f.
If the owners said they would run the horse in the Derby but gave me the option of having the horse tested (me paying the £495 and keeping the result to myself) I would do it.
Dawn Approach was a C.C (the trainer Jim Bolger had it tested), but the new owner Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Makhtoum decided to run it in the Derby.  The horse started 5/4 favourite and finished 12th of 12.  I placed laid it.

You want the connections of Galileo Gold to be as sporting as the owners of Dawn Approach, mislead the racing public, give the horse an impossible task, and then have the public howling at a "poor training performance".
You say "it is defeatist in the extreme" not to give it a try.  The statistics say the horse has 0% chance of winning at 12 furlongs.
The only way it could win at 12 furlongs are
1) all the other horses in the Derby are also C.C types
2) the horses walk the first mile of the race and sprint the last four furlongs
Report kincsem May 6, 2016 9:32 AM BST
If you need further convincing of the distance capabilities of a C.C horse look at the racing record of Toronado.
He raced 12 times.  Hi 6 wins were 1x6.5f; 2x7f; 3x8f.
He once raced beyond 8 furlongs, the 10furlong 88yards International Stakes at York.  He finished 6th of 6, beaten 22 lengths.
Report yer ma May 6, 2016 10:03 AM BST
I don't doubt there's some merit in testing but to quote stats at us from equinome where the sample size is presumably miniscule compared to the racing population is misleading.  It'll also be self-fulfilling as why would you test a horse then run it (and win) over a distance the test says is unsuitable. 

PS. that was a poor guineas and if he never won a group 1 over a mile again I'd not be remotely surprised.
Report kincsem May 6, 2016 10:46 AM BST
Try to be accurate.
You say the sample size is "presumably miniscule".  Why not find out, don't presume.
You then say "is misleading".  You have come to a conclusion without knowing the facts.
Report yer ma May 6, 2016 12:15 PM BST
Gosh you are an angry chap.   You've clearly go the game cracked so anybody else's contribution will be superfluous, ergo I'll pass on further discussion.
Report Wilycayote May 6, 2016 4:05 PM BST
walking in a mare to Downton Abbey Stud was not a pleasant experience this season.
Report Koo.... May 6, 2016 5:03 PM BST
Regardless of the gene test.  Didnt Toranado choke at York, was beat before stamina became an issue and had his palate operated on soon afterwards.
Report kincsem May 6, 2016 10:23 PM BST
Why didn't they run Toronado over 10f+ again?   They run him four times after that 10.4f race, all four times at 8f.
Report truehoncho May 6, 2016 11:14 PM BST
Hi Kincsem,

I'm sorry but to ascertain that GG had 0 chance of staying 12f is poppycock. He may well have a very small chance of staying 12f and I'm sure in the past there have been trainers that have run their horses with breeding or confirmation that suggested they would't stay and many probably didn't but I'm sure some did. My point is you don't get many chances at a Derby and a slim chance at a Derby is a million times better than none. The truth is the horse isn't good enough and the test is a convenient nonsense to justify ducking the race.
As for genetic testing, I work in the NHS commissioning services. There have been literally hundreds of genetic claims that have fallen woefully by the wayside over the past 10 years or so. Don't be too convinced of this test just yet, I guarantee this will be superceded by a better test soon and I can assure you that's not a presumption.
Report kincsem May 6, 2016 11:59 PM BST
Every horse stays 12f.  What we want is a horse that wins at 12f.   Take a look at the AntePost racing section, Derby thread.

People asked me about sprinters staying the Derby distance (winning).  I gave a few examples, although I have not kept a record the sprinters in the Derby.  I provide something.  You provide nothing.
A posters above say the "miniscule" sample size is "misleading", but they do not seem to have any information about the data.
And you use the word "poppycock" but have not a single fact in your post, just a vague generalisation that there will be discoveries in the future.  There always are.

I wasn't interested in Galileo Gold's chances of staying 12f.  i backed him to win the Guineas. When his price drifted I backed him again.
I said above I was thankful that his connections told the public they had the horse tested, they found he was a C.C, and they would not be running him in the Derby.
This stopped people betting on him.  I did think he was a C.C.  I was not going to back him for the Derby.  I did not advise people to back him / not back him.
I am not the owner.  If you want to have the horse run in the Derby you should take it up with the owner if you disagree.
Report impossible123 May 8, 2016 7:19 PM BST
I wonder should Midterm fluff his lines in The Dante next thursday and no standout potential winner of The Derby emerging will the connections of Galileo Gold reconsider given there is only one Epsom Derby? Wouldn't that be interesting especially if Godolphin supplements Cloth Of Stars?
Report Formtwist May 8, 2016 8:22 PM BST
It is surprising what gets people posting, and we are well off the question. So, the genetic test indicates a horse with a very high preponderance of fast-twitch muscle which makes it unlikely he will win the Derby. It also indicates a much more commercial sire future as a miler with real speed. As a son of Paco Boy we can hardly be surprised or critical. Derby winners are not the most desirable sires, so why go that route if you don't have to?
Report truehoncho May 10, 2016 5:44 PM BST
Back in and 10-1 for the miracle run.

Harry the Herbert isn't ruling anything out. Kincsem, want to lay me 66-1 for the Ledger?(all proceeds to charity of course. (I know your thinking I'm a C**T Kincsem)
Report kincsem May 11, 2016 11:38 AM BST
If it is entered in the Derby or St Leger I will place lay it, assuming the odds are attractive.
I often place lay four or five in the Derby (and a few in the Oaks.)
Report truehoncho June 14, 2016 6:47 PM BST
Well Kincscem, whether he would have stayed or not is all immaterial now. He certainly ran well today and better than I thought he would. I hope you had a few pound on him.
Report sageform June 15, 2016 7:47 AM BST
I must admit that I was tempted to back it but went for Emotionless and the deciding factor was a doubt about Paco Boy producing a really top class horse!
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