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Johnny_Mustang
30 Oct 14 10:01
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Date Joined: 18 Feb 07
| Topic/replies: 13,801 | Blogger: Johnny_Mustang's blog
Should we keep them all on one thread?

Charm Spirit 25k
Showcasing 15K
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Report potentialmillionaire October 30, 2014 3:00 PM GMT
We'll both the above look like they are going to be in the 'reasonable' category.

I should qualify that these things are all relative!

I don't know that I would have been saying that last year, but the bandwagon moves on. Certainly the last 15 years or so when so many good colts stayed in training at 4 seems to have gone out of the window. Now we have to be grateful that they are allowed a 3yo career!
Report yer ma October 30, 2014 4:15 PM GMT
Jeez PotM you've been on the sherry if 25k isnt top end for a horse I'd say noone gave two hoots about until the autumn.  Does that mean Olympic Glory and Toronado (both more precocious) are similar money - holy moly. Kingman should be 50k by comparison.  I wonder if clients sitting with a belly full of Makfi will be so keen.  Also as a breeder of one of the nicer Showcasings I'd not be rushing back at 15k.  I had faith in his ability to make it but that's just it, he hasn't made it yet but none the less the fee goes up ahead of that fact.  I suspect there's been lesser bunch of mares bred to this and last year (regardless of the sales) so a quieter year next could prove expensive.   Good news if you have a foal to sell though - your base price just doubled!

On the other hand with 5k for likes of bungle and EsQue then taking a longer term view with a first season hottee must be impossible.
Report potentialmillionaire October 30, 2014 8:36 PM GMT
Does it matter when people started to give two hoots? Fact is, now they do and when you go through his back catalogue of form, there's plenty that keeps him at least level with Toronado, Night of Thunder and Olympic Glory.

Also in this era of intense sire snobbery, Invincible Spirit gets more points than High Chap or Choisir. I suppose how many more is in the eye of the beholder. And he breathes ok too!

My thoughts on Showcasing are that his fee rise is sort of similar to Acclamation,Dutch Art, Dark Angel et al after their good starts. Many will think that if as you say he really makes it, the 15 will be value. I would have been happy at 12.5 myself, but I am expecting inflation to keep most fees higher than I would be happy with.
This year I think he will have had a better book than maybe at any time though I think last year's will be a bit grim. I hope those that did take that gamble will be rewarded.
Report potentialmillionaire November 4, 2014 2:44 PM GMT
Feck me. It's every bit as bad as I feared.

Where the hell are all these mares that justify these fees?
Report proxygene November 4, 2014 5:57 PM GMT
Its unlikely that 'sensible' book sizes will prevail as a silver lining, but some will be full and some might be pretty sparse instead.

Also, If the foal market looks flooded by the likes of Bated Breath, raising his price might seem sensible to Juddmonte, but who wants to risk it ending up one of 80 at £10k.
Report potentialmillionaire November 4, 2014 8:06 PM GMT
Ditto Zoffany at 12.5, though 160 mares a la Coolmore!
Report Off the toe November 4, 2014 9:00 PM GMT
Bated Breath - $15,996 (10,000 pounds)
Cacique (limited book) - $20,003 (12,500 pounds)
Champs Elysees - $15,996 (10,000 pounds)
Dansili - $159,961 (100,000 pounds)
Frankel - $199,913 (125,000 pounds)
Kingman (new) - $87,970 (55,000 pounds)
Oasis Dream - $119,922 (75,000 pounds)
All fees in euros

Alfred Nobel 4,000
NEW Australia 50,000
Camelot 25,000
Canford Cliffs 12,500
Dylan Thomas 5,000
Excelebration 17,500
Fastnet Rock Private
Footstepsinthesand 10,000
Galileo Private
Henrythenavigator 15,000
High Chaparral 30,000
Holy Roman Emperor 20,000
NEW Kingsbarns 6,000
Mastercraftsman 40,000
Most Improved 5,000
NEW No Nay Never 20,000
Pour Moi 12,500
Power 8,000
Requinto 4,000
Rip Van Winkle 25,000
Rock of Gibraltar 12,500
NEW Ruler of the World 15,000
So You Think 12,500
Starspangledbanner 25,000
Thewayyouare 5,000
NEW War Command 15,000
**** 6,000
Zoffany 12,500
Report yer ma November 4, 2014 9:15 PM GMT
Grim news.  Really taking the pss with a few of those.  Zoffany, RVW and you need sectioning if you think 10k the right money for third season Bated Breath.  As you say PotM, there must be hundred of mares who don't merit a £5k covering going to some of these £15k+ sires.  Really do feel like I'm getting a gun put to my head - 15k-20k first season is the new 7-10k.
Report truehoncho November 4, 2014 9:30 PM GMT
What happens when the yearlings get to the sales? surely most, especially at the cheaper end will get stung?
And what about the the smaller trainers? there is a definite limit to their budgets.
Report potentialmillionaire November 5, 2014 10:51 AM GMT
There is only one reason why these fees are as they are and that is Tattersalls October Sales.

They returned stunning figures due to the influence of the increasingly erratic influence that is Dubai.

So obviously one of the outfits under discussion can only hope to benefit by the residual spending power created by the raft of underbidders on a Darley horse. And then of course you need to get into said sales.

The majority of these fees do not represent a level that translates very easily to Goffs/DBS for sure.

I leave you with the last word of Philip Mitchell when discussing the piffling decrease in the fee for Oasis Dream.

'We have listened to breeders' .

As if we need focking party politicians in our game now, and then of course which breeder did they listen to who told them to put Bated Breath's fee up. . . . Was it you Yer Ma? Was iI? Was it? I think  it must have been. . . .Devil
Report yer ma November 5, 2014 11:12 AM GMT
My view is that the people running the biggest studs take the approach that 1/3 of clients are owner breeders and don't really care what price stallions are, 1/3 are selling breeders rich enough to ignore the massive risk of inflated fees as it doesn't jeopardise their living and last (me) 1/3 who they are happy to force to gamble to make money as we are assumed to be the 'professional horsemen'.

We'd set out hearts on some sort of No Nay Never / War Command / Mukda / Dark Angel son combination.  I'd be risking my business to take that on now tbh.  Selling an expensive one in foal might have to be the call. 

Really disappointed Juddmonte couldn't offer something (i.e. Noble Mission at 15k or less) that could be a grower with them. Mizzen Mast is $25k (£15k) - he's a proven G1 sire.  No comparison at all with their UK c£10k offerings.
Report roy jones November 5, 2014 5:01 PM GMT
i agree the last word for Oasis dream was incredible !!

not a lot of breeders could go to this stallions.....

as you said , where did they find the mares to go / and pay for this stallion

i read a book who sais basically  to go for a stallion wich have a fee = " one third of the price of the mare"
it is NOT possible to apply this , with fee so high...
Report roy jones November 5, 2014 5:05 PM GMT
23 mare/fillies broke the mark of 1 M$ at fasig

there is money , who can explain all these raise :-((
Report potentialmillionaire November 5, 2014 8:52 PM GMT
25€k for Kodiac then and 4k for Heerat.

I daren't really crunch the numbers Yer ma as like you I am not sure how to make ends meet. I suppose that an in depth study might throw up some horses due their bounce year after some good results earlier. It's looking for an unusual angle on every mating that I don't like because an obvious first seasoner or two is usually the way to spread the risk.
The Mukadrams of this world are surely going to do better than they would normally expect given the paucity of alternatives.
Report yer ma November 6, 2014 7:29 PM GMT
They just keep coming...Paco Boy's yearling median falls 40% (that's FORTY percent) to 14k, so obviously you'd want to increase his fee.  Wee J couldnt give a fig mind as he's away to get 150 x 5% of £15k.  Lope de Vega is a likeable stallion and I assume those part of his already full book are comfortable that in this 'extraordinary' year his yearling median (£38k) barely rose higher than next year's fee.  That's pretty unheard of and by comparison Kodiac is also £38k median but 15k less.

Anyway I fear he doth protest too much...I'm off to practice my french.
Report potentialmillionaire November 6, 2014 9:06 PM GMT
My French isn't too bad but something in the back of my mind suggests recent complications in sending a mare there?

I agree that the horse in question represents the best value to date. I wish I had an obvious barrener for him and as a thwarted Starspangledbarrener in year 1 I am just a little bit spooked by the thought of the Choisir curse again!

I agree  L de  V is likeable but fast ground could keep him seriously second division in my opinion. I know tot up the stakes winners and you get 'more impressive start than Galileo' type of stat, but reality tends to bring most of them back down to earth soon enough.
Report proxygene November 7, 2014 12:02 AM GMT
So who's left to rescue us then errrrr Cheveley Park, Lanwades or is Finjaan looking attractive...
Report potentialmillionaire November 7, 2014 1:40 PM GMT
I think if we're expectingCheveley to bail us out then it's time to open the door to the gas oven!
Report jmc27 November 7, 2014 8:53 PM GMT
Load of stupid fees about but someone has to be paying them!
Report ovalu November 7, 2014 10:08 PM GMT
In Ireland I think the following might be reasonable value

Power 8k
Requinto 4k
Henry 15k
Galeforce 5k
Fast Company 7.5k (especially considering fees for RVW and LDV)

Then again I could just as easily be completely off the mark!
Report ImSoLuckyLucky! November 8, 2014 1:46 PM GMT
I see STS has his fee raised to 125k
Nice little earner
His stable mate Dalkani dropped 8k to 17k
When I visited the stud they mentioned he was a bit of a monkey
Aga Khan not amused
Report Wilycayote November 10, 2014 7:43 PM GMT
What is Miss Rausing smoking....Aussie Rules up to 7k!!

Am know seriously praying for a late new arrival of a 4k-ish stallion in GB.
Report truehoncho November 10, 2014 9:10 PM GMT
Heeraat
Report lingbleed November 10, 2014 10:37 PM GMT
am i missing all these great dubawi's ,i dont get it ,surely mastercraftsman aldo not cheap still represents some value compared to other's , i think invincible spirit price is fair ,if not over due ,plus he is the heart beat of the irish ns ,how kingman can bunny hop proven horse's and start at 55k is unreal .but on another note has the coolmore darley rift been put to bed ,i see the boys in blue had a galileo winner in france the other day ,plus shadwell bought a few this year by ex coolmore stallion's ,but am sure the lads still own big stakes in these horse's ,plus coolmore went head to head with darley for a shamardal colt at tatts .
Report proxygene November 21, 2014 2:11 PM GMT
Has anyone seen Royal Applause fee being announced or have I just missed it?
Report Off the toe November 21, 2014 6:49 PM GMT
Royal Applause 2015 covering fee - £9,000 . His son Finjaan - £2,500.
Report the dealer November 24, 2014 12:36 AM GMT
Paco Boy ?
Report Off the toe November 24, 2014 7:49 AM GMT
PACO BOY: £9,000 Oct 1st SLF

7 of Paco Boy’s progeny have won or been placed in 10 Group or Listed races.

43% Winners to Runners strike rate.

2014 Yearling’s made: 280,000, 75,000, 72,000, 65,000, 63,000, 60,000, 50,000, 50,000, 50,000……

Covered a book of 119 mares in his second crop and 120 in his third crop.
Report truehoncho November 24, 2014 6:14 PM GMT
i would have thought there were better options for 9k. 5k would be more like it
Report Off the toe November 25, 2014 7:16 AM GMT
Stud Fees: #BahamianBounty £8,500; #DickTurpin £4,000; #PastoralPursuits £4,000; #Toronado £15,000, all 1st Oct SLF
Report roy jones November 25, 2014 5:21 PM GMT
truehoncho • November 24, 2014 6:14 PM GMT
i would have thought there were better options for 9k. 5k would be more like it

waoooooooouuuuuu.......

7 BT horse for a first 2 years crop is NOT enough for you??
check how many BT horse Dutch art have for a fee of 40 K !!!


could give me better options at 9 K fee for 2015 please??

kind regards,
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