First Season Sires 2014

Just thought the following might help.  Approve & Showcasing are the ones I've always liked from the cheaper ones


Sire            Mares Covered         Fee

Alfred Nobel        92            E5,000
Approve                118            E5,000
Arabian Gleam        18            £2,000
Arcano            119            £6,000
Equiano                124            £8,000
Fast Company        115            E5,000
Hellvelyn        69            £2,500
Le Cadre Noir        39            E2,500
Lope De Vega        127            E15,000
Lord Shanakill        107            E7,500
Makfi            135            £25,000
Mawatheeq        40            £5,000
Mullionmileanhour    24            £2,500
Paco Boy        130            £8,500
Rip Van Winkle        143            E20,000
Showcasing        116            £5,000
Stimulation        78            £3,000
Vale Of York        109            E5,000
Vocalised        36            Private
Zebedee                154            E5,000

Posh, what a perfect list to top this thread with, thanks for that.
Thinking of B B., might he come back a bit older and stronger to be competitive on the flat?
That would increase your chances of a bit more fun, with less risk.

I'd take anything at this stage, Flat would be fine, it would be a shame not to go NH though as he's a natural jumper.  Still any comeback is a loooooong way off so I'll see how he gets on.  I'd imagine if he does come back he'll run on the flat a few times and if he's ok maybe give the jumps another go.

Thanks for the list: Paco Boy looks expensive at £8500!

think it will be a year full of twists and turns though....

Hellvelyn had his first winner at Yarmouth yesterday.

Looking at Paco Boy's breeze up results yesterday;

43   cancelled
61   w/d
107  w/d
180  not sold

what does "cancelled" mean? first time Ive seen it on a results sheet.

I think - but don't quote me - that 'cancelled' means the horse was returned after the sale on discovery of an undeclared vice or problem?

The bloodstock media and the industry in general are very guilty of judging stallions by their totals (ie number of wins, amount of prizemoney etc) rather than their percentages & strike rates.

I would much rather see a stallion with 50 juveniles get 16 winners, rather than a stallion with 120 juveniles get 25.

Is anyone else already bored of seeing multiple Zebedee runners in every 2yo race?

Showcasing 3 winners of 4 races from 13 runs. Good start, the one I like.
Equiano 9 runners so far 1 winner. interestingly 8 of his runners have been fillies.
Rip Van Winkle covered a lot of mares, unlucky with Dick Whittington(looks smart) tonight, jockey error.

Don't strike me as terribly 'tough' types the Zebs.  As Wily says there is one or more in every race (36 runs for 3 wins).  Not least cause I've a crackerjack foal - all Hellvelyns runners so far look like racehorses.

There was definitely a selection of nice first crop Hellvelyn foals around but I was very disappointed with his first set of yearling figures. I would think judging by yer ma's comments he could be a bit of a grower commercially as his books will have been progressive.
I am trying to not write off Zebedee yet but with so many runners I am not minded to look for excuses really.
Another 150 mares this spring I guess it's looking like a bit of a waste of the earth's resources to get all the beggars fed and watered.
I have bred 2 Showcasings to date and whilst they have been slightly different types one thing they have in common is exceptional movement. My hopes are not yet dashed on that front. . .
And my god this spring I'm looking for a fillip!

HELLVELYN  now has two winners and several placings, so hope still alive ! His a fillies certainly seem good and tough. Our homebred has his first race entry next week. Had three colts from the horse so far, each year so am hoping he can some more winner a on the board before the yearling and foal go to the Sales!!

I just saw a tweet that made me laugh;

Jake Warren:
"Paco Boy's first winner today with Beacon! Highclere sold, Warren&Son bought, HTR owned. Could you get more of a home run!!!"


My alternative take on it would be...."could you get more of a stitch-up than that!!!"

Well he won't be getting a home run out of Al Kazeem.

Showcasing is flying

Didnt expect Showcasing to be able to get 7 furlong 2yo winners in June.

How many 2yo's does Starspangledbanner have in total?

Wily, is that a good sign for Showcasing or a bad one do you think?

P.s. Not a trick question!

I have to admit I am not a fan of sprinters. I think the breeding industry has become obsessed with speed, allowing too many 'average' sprinters their chance to stand at stud. They don't even need to win a Group One to have full books of cheap mares sent to them in their first few seasons. A look at the racecards shows how far the over-emphasis on speed has gone. The situation in the States is even more outlandish, with few horses capable of staying 12 furlongs. Quantity will never be a substitute for quality.

The states if 95% of the races are at 8.5f or below why would a breeder want to breed a horse that can stay 9f let alone 12f.

Fast Company is now really showing promise after a slow start. 6 2yo wins so far in June (GB only)

With us being about halfway through the season I thought I’d do a little review of where our new boys are.  I’ve taken the figs from today’s Irish Field although as it only shows the top 30 and Arabian Gleam, Mawatheeq, Mullionmileanhour & Lord Shanakill don’t appear, I’ve had to use the figs from the Racing Post for them.

Sire        Mares       Fee        EuropeWnrs/Runrs/%    Stakeswiners
Alfred Nobel    92         E5,000    2/13/15%
Approve         118        E5,000    9/34/26%        1
Arabian Gleam   18         £2,000    0/4/0%
Arcano          119        £6,000    7/29/24%        1
Equiano         124        £8,000    6/34/17%
Fast Company    115        E5,000    15/43/35%        1
Hellvelyn       69         £2,500    3/16/19%
Le Cadre Noir   39         E2,500    2/8/25%
Lope De Vega    127        E15,000    9/23/39%
Lord Shanakill  107        E7,500    0/9/10% (UK & Ire only)
Makfi           135        £25,000    6/19/32%
Mawatheeq       40         £5,000    0/4/0% (UK & Ire only)
Mullionmileanhour   24     £2,500    0/3/0% (UK & Ire only)
Paco Boy        130        £8,500    7/26/27%        1
Rip Van Winkle  143        E20,000    7/20/35%        2
Showcasing      116        £5,000    10/34/29%        1
Stimulation     78         £3,000    1/21/5%
Vale Of York    109        E5,000    8/31/26%        1
Vocalised       36         Private    0/4/0% (UK & Ire only)
Zebedee         154        E5,000    19/59/32%        1
Starspangledbanner        E15,000    4/12/33%        2

Those doing well from a % winners to runners are Fast Company, Lope De Vega, Makfi, Rip Van Winkle, Showcasing, Zebedee & Starspangledbanner.

Those who are slightly behind but have a Stakes winner so far are Approve, Arcano, Paco Boy & Vale Of York.  Will be interesting to see which of these pushes on.

Those who progeny need to start picking up are Alfred Nobel, Equiano, Lord Shanakill & Stimulation.

In summary Starspangledbanner is the obvious superstar so far with Rip Van Winkle looking promising.  Fast Company has done well and is the one I’ve been most impressed with from a low fee.  Zebedee is starting to motor (unsurprising given the number of mares covered), if you used him 2nd season I wouldn’t expect to make to make too much of a killing as there are 157 others just like you.  Makfi could do with a stakes winner sooner rather than later and if you had one of the 141 mares(!!!) covered by Equiano in his second season then I hope for your sake that he picks up soon.

Never really understood why people were so sure Equiano would bet 2yos.

Got a feeling Equiano's may prove better as 3 year old's, James Fanshawe has one closely related to Deacon Blues(could be a Half Brother?) called The Tin Man
he's not been out yet as he'd been coughing.Interestingly he has several Mafki 2year old's in his team.The other point I would suggest is that when people
talk about Alexander Anthem and The Wow Factor as possible Classic contenders for next year Guineas we shouldn't forget that Starspangledbanner was all speed and
the way they both won their respective races at Royal Ascot to me suggests they won't turn into milers like New Approach horses but could turn into Group 1/2 speedsters.
Cheers John

This year's first season sire title is as hot as hell! Not a day goes by where there's not a couple of winners by the new sires or a group winner. In descending order I am most impressed with;

Starspangledbanner - his quality / quantity ratio is stunning
Showcasing - impressive from poorish quality mares. A new winner + Gr 1 placing to add today
Fast Company - good looking stock who look classy and straightforward
Rip Van Winkle - giving the impression he might end up the winner with class and numbers

on the other hand Makfi is struggling

as is Paco Boy

TH, what is your barometer for success?  Currently from UK & Ire winners to runners Makfi is on 33% (6 from 18) & Paco Boy is on 29% (8 from 28) which are not too shabby (when compared with the other 1st seasoners) in my opinion.  I'm not saying I'm right and I'm not having a go by the way, I'm just interested why in your opinion they are struggling. 

Only the other day I had it in my head that Excellent Art was next to useless and when I looked into it he has a 51% winners to runners record. By the same token I had in my head that Arakan was quite good yet his winners to runners is 39%.

Winner to runners is not the be all and end all by any means but it's interesting how perception plays it part, especially when it comes to the sales, one mans trash is another mans treasure and all that.

Hi PP

I thought at £25k Makfi should have more quality and PB's sold better than they are performing but I take your point PP.

Would you want a third season yearling by either of them though?

TH, that a fair point, I’d never thought of looking at comparing what a sires progeny sold for and their number of winners.

Below is our list (updated) with that info.  In brackets is there position compared to the others, (1) being the highest median and highest winners to runners %.

Sire    2013 Colt Median (Yrling)    EuropeWnrs/Runrs/%    Stakeswinners

Alfred Nobel               G10,840 (15)    4/19/21% (16)
Approve                 G16,260 (12)    11/41/27% (9)        1
Arabian Gleam            G762 (21)    0/4/0% (19=)
Arcano                  G34,357 (4)    8/32/25% (11)        1
Equiano                    G29,333 (7)    9/41/22% (15)
Fast Company           G26,883 (8)    17/51/33% (6=)        1
Hellvelyn                G8,571 (16)    4/18/22% (13=)
Le Cadre Noir              G3,794 (19)    2/9/22% (13=)
Lope De Vega            G34,000 (5)    11/29/38% (2)
Lord Shanakill             G22,455 (10)    5/19/26% (10)
Makfi                   G45,000 (2)    24/8/33% (6=)
Mawatheeq                 G7,743 (18)    0/6/0% (19=)
Mullionmileanhour       G8,095 (17)    0/4/0% (19=)
Paco Boy                 G30,238 (6)    8/34/24% (11)        1
Rip Van Winkle          G70,000 (1)    8/23/35% (4)        2
Showcasing               G21,952 (11)    14/37/38% (3)        1
Stimulation             G16,190 (13)    1/22/5% (18)
Vale Of York             G14,250 (14)    9/33/27% (8)        1
Vocalised               G1,742 (20)    1/5/20% (17)
Zebedee                  G24,762 (9)    23/68/34% (5)         1
Starspangledbanner    G40,000 (3)    6/14/43% (1)        2

This does throw up a couple of names that previously hadn't registered much comment.  The big winners using this as a success indicator would be Showcasing, Vale of York & Le Cadre Noir, the losers would be Arcano, Equiano, Paco Boy & Stimulation.

Lord Shankill & Alfred Noble are starting to pick up and broadly speaking are performing as they should now.

Would I want to buy anything by either Makfi or Paco Boy?  If the horse looked the part and had the page then I wouldn't have an issue, if I had the money.  I’m sure the Paco Boy’s will find their price as the market corrects to take into account his start but I have a feeling Makfi will pick up as I’m sure his mare quality was better than most on this list.  I still think he’s doing ok, just needs a stakes performer or two soon IMO.

By my measure of UK wins, there are only 3 first season sires doing OK compared to previous season records.
Zebedee is way ahead on 27 while Showcasing on 17 and Fast Company on 16 are showing promise. Next are Equiano on 11 and Paco Boy on 10. There is still plenty of time for others to make an impact.

Showcasing seems to get better and better, loads of winners, and group horses from moderate mares.

I agree about Showcasing. To put in context, Arcano would have covered a much better quality of mare (I seem to remember plenty of breeders were turned away from him as they had the choice of mares) but he has not so far achieved half as much.

The mare that bred the Acomb 2nd was sold in foal to Showcasing for £4,500!!

Does anyone have a theory as to why Shadwell are struggling so much with their stallions? I just thought about it when I saw that Mawatheeq was celebrating his first winner yesterday....they seem to have lost the ability to stand successful sires. 

Also, at the risk of sounding like a broken record, Showcasing is some sire...The winner at Bath today was a 8000 Euro filly /13th foal / of a 20yo mare. That's the sort of help my mares need!

What price Showcasing next season?

Very good day for equiano also, fast company ( who I'm heavily invested in) seems to be gone off the boil

There are many sires that blow hot and cold are there not. Consistency is the hardest record to acquire. I didn't like Fast Company at the off but he's had some moments for sure so where he ends up I don't know.
Showcasing on the other hand looks good from any angle right now. His % of horses with ability! his % of multiple winners, winners to runners! you name it!
I don't know where his fee will pitch up and a few big price yearlings will have the most effect from here on in. I don't see Whitsbury being greedy though as they are so geared to all types of breeder. It'll be nice to see some Cadeaux type mares back on the place though I am sure!

Approve is the latest first season sire to blow hot with 9 GB wins in September.

From my point of view, today underlined the 2 standout first season sires in 2014;

-Consort looked a proper horse for LOPE DE VEGA who has got off to a much faster start as a sire than I had anticipated.

-SHOWCASING looks to have found another fast one in Rose's Premiere as she beat  a very decent yardstick in Profitable.

I burnt my fingers in both races, but nice to see two "independent" young sires going great guns...

The "Paco Boy" Flying Childers form got badly knocked today....the 2nd got beaten in a 2 runner conditions race at Salisbury to add to the fact that a jockey had to fall off Cotai Glory to hand them the race.

Looks like the first season sires table will be altered dramatically after the weekend with prominent runners (Ivawood etc) in the valuable Newmarket sales races.

Lord Shanakill is making a belated impression on the first season stats. His first win in GB was only in August but after 5 wins already this month, he is now on a total of 10. I will post a first season list at the end of the month.

End of turf season figures

5045   13   Starspangledbanner
3559   24   Lope De Vega
2725   37   Showcasing
-539   64   Zebedee
-730   15   Alfred Nobel
-1060  29   Rip Van Winkle
-1097  44   Fast Company
-1249  27   Makfi
-1294  41   Approve
-1517  44   Paco Boy
-1891  28   Arcano
-2166   4   Siyouni
-2201  49   Equiano
-2974  19   Lord Shanakill
-3434  26   Vale Of York
-4223  11   Mawatheeq
-5430  29   Stimulation
-5717  18   Hellvelyn
-5925   4   Mullionmileanhour
-7259   7   Arabian Gleam

Nothing that surprising compared to other tables of stats, perhaps Alfred Nobel a bit better than had appeared.

Lord Shanakill is making a belated impression...this is interesting as Munnings is doing the same in the US and they share a sire who's best form came at 5.
Obviously not quick developers.