First Season Sires 2014

Just thought the following might help.  Approve & Showcasing are the ones I've always liked from the cheaper ones


Sire            Mares Covered         Fee

Alfred Nobel        92            E5,000
Approve                118            E5,000
Arabian Gleam        18            £2,000
Arcano            119            £6,000
Equiano                124            £8,000
Fast Company        115            E5,000
Hellvelyn        69            £2,500
Le Cadre Noir        39            E2,500
Lope De Vega        127            E15,000
Lord Shanakill        107            E7,500
Makfi            135            £25,000
Mawatheeq        40            £5,000
Mullionmileanhour    24            £2,500
Paco Boy        130            £8,500
Rip Van Winkle        143            E20,000
Showcasing        116            £5,000
Stimulation        78            £3,000
Vale Of York        109            E5,000
Vocalised        36            Private
Zebedee                154            E5,000

I'd take anything at this stage, Flat would be fine, it would be a shame not to go NH though as he's a natural jumper.  Still any comeback is a loooooong way off so I'll see how he gets on.  I'd imagine if he does come back he'll run on the flat a few times and if he's ok maybe give the jumps another go.

Hellvelyn had his first winner at Yarmouth yesterday.

I think - but don't quote me - that 'cancelled' means the horse was returned after the sale on discovery of an undeclared vice or problem?

Is anyone else already bored of seeing multiple Zebedee runners in every 2yo race?

Don't strike me as terribly 'tough' types the Zebs.  As Wily says there is one or more in every race (36 runs for 3 wins).  Not least cause I've a crackerjack foal - all Hellvelyns runners so far look like racehorses.

HELLVELYN  now has two winners and several placings, so hope still alive ! His a fillies certainly seem good and tough. Our homebred has his first race entry next week. Had three colts from the horse so far, each year so am hoping he can some more winner a on the board before the yearling and foal go to the Sales!!

Well he won't be getting a home run out of Al Kazeem.

Didnt expect Showcasing to be able to get 7 furlong 2yo winners in June.

How many 2yo's does Starspangledbanner have in total?

P.s. Not a trick question!

The states if 95% of the races are at 8.5f or below why would a breeder want to breed a horse that can stay 9f let alone 12f.

With us being about halfway through the season I thought I’d do a little review of where our new boys are.  I’ve taken the figs from today’s Irish Field although as it only shows the top 30 and Arabian Gleam, Mawatheeq, Mullionmileanhour & Lord Shanakill don’t appear, I’ve had to use the figs from the Racing Post for them.

Sire        Mares       Fee        EuropeWnrs/Runrs/%    Stakeswiners
Alfred Nobel    92         E5,000    2/13/15%
Approve         118        E5,000    9/34/26%        1
Arabian Gleam   18         £2,000    0/4/0%
Arcano          119        £6,000    7/29/24%        1
Equiano         124        £8,000    6/34/17%
Fast Company    115        E5,000    15/43/35%        1
Hellvelyn       69         £2,500    3/16/19%
Le Cadre Noir   39         E2,500    2/8/25%
Lope De Vega    127        E15,000    9/23/39%
Lord Shanakill  107        E7,500    0/9/10% (UK & Ire only)
Makfi           135        £25,000    6/19/32%
Mawatheeq       40         £5,000    0/4/0% (UK & Ire only)
Mullionmileanhour   24     £2,500    0/3/0% (UK & Ire only)
Paco Boy        130        £8,500    7/26/27%        1
Rip Van Winkle  143        E20,000    7/20/35%        2
Showcasing      116        £5,000    10/34/29%        1
Stimulation     78         £3,000    1/21/5%
Vale Of York    109        E5,000    8/31/26%        1
Vocalised       36         Private    0/4/0% (UK & Ire only)
Zebedee         154        E5,000    19/59/32%        1
Starspangledbanner        E15,000    4/12/33%        2

Those doing well from a % winners to runners are Fast Company, Lope De Vega, Makfi, Rip Van Winkle, Showcasing, Zebedee & Starspangledbanner.

Those who are slightly behind but have a Stakes winner so far are Approve, Arcano, Paco Boy & Vale Of York.  Will be interesting to see which of these pushes on.

Those who progeny need to start picking up are Alfred Nobel, Equiano, Lord Shanakill & Stimulation.

In summary Starspangledbanner is the obvious superstar so far with Rip Van Winkle looking promising.  Fast Company has done well and is the one I’ve been most impressed with from a low fee.  Zebedee is starting to motor (unsurprising given the number of mares covered), if you used him 2nd season I wouldn’t expect to make to make too much of a killing as there are 157 others just like you.  Makfi could do with a stakes winner sooner rather than later and if you had one of the 141 mares(!!!) covered by Equiano in his second season then I hope for your sake that he picks up soon.

Got a feeling Equiano's may prove better as 3 year old's, James Fanshawe has one closely related to Deacon Blues(could be a Half Brother?) called The Tin Man
he's not been out yet as he'd been coughing.Interestingly he has several Mafki 2year old's in his team.The other point I would suggest is that when people
talk about Alexander Anthem and The Wow Factor as possible Classic contenders for next year Guineas we shouldn't forget that Starspangledbanner was all speed and
the way they both won their respective races at Royal Ascot to me suggests they won't turn into milers like New Approach horses but could turn into Group 1/2 speedsters.
Cheers John

on the other hand Makfi is struggling

TH, what is your barometer for success?  Currently from UK & Ire winners to runners Makfi is on 33% (6 from 18) & Paco Boy is on 29% (8 from 28) which are not too shabby (when compared with the other 1st seasoners) in my opinion.  I'm not saying I'm right and I'm not having a go by the way, I'm just interested why in your opinion they are struggling. 

Only the other day I had it in my head that Excellent Art was next to useless and when I looked into it he has a 51% winners to runners record. By the same token I had in my head that Arakan was quite good yet his winners to runners is 39%.

Winner to runners is not the be all and end all by any means but it's interesting how perception plays it part, especially when it comes to the sales, one mans trash is another mans treasure and all that.

TH, that a fair point, I’d never thought of looking at comparing what a sires progeny sold for and their number of winners.

Below is our list (updated) with that info.  In brackets is there position compared to the others, (1) being the highest median and highest winners to runners %.

Sire    2013 Colt Median (Yrling)    EuropeWnrs/Runrs/%    Stakeswinners

Alfred Nobel               G10,840 (15)    4/19/21% (16)
Approve                 G16,260 (12)    11/41/27% (9)        1
Arabian Gleam            G762 (21)    0/4/0% (19=)
Arcano                  G34,357 (4)    8/32/25% (11)        1
Equiano                    G29,333 (7)    9/41/22% (15)
Fast Company           G26,883 (8)    17/51/33% (6=)        1
Hellvelyn                G8,571 (16)    4/18/22% (13=)
Le Cadre Noir              G3,794 (19)    2/9/22% (13=)
Lope De Vega            G34,000 (5)    11/29/38% (2)
Lord Shanakill             G22,455 (10)    5/19/26% (10)
Makfi                   G45,000 (2)    24/8/33% (6=)
Mawatheeq                 G7,743 (18)    0/6/0% (19=)
Mullionmileanhour       G8,095 (17)    0/4/0% (19=)
Paco Boy                 G30,238 (6)    8/34/24% (11)        1
Rip Van Winkle          G70,000 (1)    8/23/35% (4)        2
Showcasing               G21,952 (11)    14/37/38% (3)        1
Stimulation             G16,190 (13)    1/22/5% (18)
Vale Of York             G14,250 (14)    9/33/27% (8)        1
Vocalised               G1,742 (20)    1/5/20% (17)
Zebedee                  G24,762 (9)    23/68/34% (5)         1
Starspangledbanner    G40,000 (3)    6/14/43% (1)        2

This does throw up a couple of names that previously hadn't registered much comment.  The big winners using this as a success indicator would be Showcasing, Vale of York & Le Cadre Noir, the losers would be Arcano, Equiano, Paco Boy & Stimulation.

Lord Shankill & Alfred Noble are starting to pick up and broadly speaking are performing as they should now.

Would I want to buy anything by either Makfi or Paco Boy?  If the horse looked the part and had the page then I wouldn't have an issue, if I had the money.  I’m sure the Paco Boy’s will find their price as the market corrects to take into account his start but I have a feeling Makfi will pick up as I’m sure his mare quality was better than most on this list.  I still think he’s doing ok, just needs a stakes performer or two soon IMO.

Showcasing seems to get better and better, loads of winners, and group horses from moderate mares.

Does anyone have a theory as to why Shadwell are struggling so much with their stallions? I just thought about it when I saw that Mawatheeq was celebrating his first winner yesterday....they seem to have lost the ability to stand successful sires. 

Also, at the risk of sounding like a broken record, Showcasing is some sire...The winner at Bath today was a 8000 Euro filly /13th foal / of a 20yo mare. That's the sort of help my mares need!

Very good day for equiano also, fast company ( who I'm heavily invested in) seems to be gone off the boil

Approve is the latest first season sire to blow hot with 9 GB wins in September.