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yer ma
17 Jan 14 13:01
Joined:
Date Joined: 23 Oct 02
| Topic/replies: 1,224 | Blogger: yer ma's blog
Anybody seen.. (PotM?)

He looks good in 2D and will probably have a gander at the Tatts parade.  Low expectations but its a nice family and a match to this Roberto line mare I might cover.  Less than 4k would be nice but UK discounts seem difficult to come by.
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Report potentialmillionaire January 17, 2014 5:31 PM GMT
Sorry yer ma, I can only hope someone else answers your post too as I would be keen to know.

I have had a really good afternoon by coincidence crunching figures and working out what I dare spend on noms and making a few calls. I don't think Finjaan will make it for me but if I had seen him he would probably have made it down to the wire.
Report yer ma January 17, 2014 8:04 PM GMT
I crunched mine and they don't add up! If only we knew if our 2014 runners were going to be any good eh.  The mare returns were puzzling in places no? Would seem to suggest deals could be struck for the less sexy option but seemingly not.  When Bated Breath is full in year 2 at £8k I question my sanity.  Several decent sires barely topping 70 covers.  Fully expect to be told 'very busy, terms as stated' by Gazeley when in truth this black type producing mare should be welcomed with open arms.
Report potentialmillionaire January 17, 2014 10:35 PM GMT
Couldn't agree more on both return of mares and what's full or not.

Kyllachy at 15k full! I mean he's fine but I can think of quite a few at half that that will provide better returns and why has he suddenly become a 20% better sire at the age of 15?

I used a red hot sire last year that was full very early and I had to plead to get in despite a hot mare that they liked and lo return of mares reads nothing like that scenario!

Funnily enough when I had the Bated Breath conversation it became apparent that there was room at Oasis Dream.
85k is a lot of money but there's plenty that have it and there are worse ways of spending it for sure.
Report yer ma January 19, 2014 6:43 PM GMT
Complete digression but Pam Sly's comments about breeding to her star mare (who is clearly a useless broodmare) bemoaning the use of Oasis Dream, Sea the Stars, Teofilo & Dubawi...all terribly difficult I'm sure. 

Back on topic, I've got a choisir which is great but the fuss on getting a deal last year to find he barely covered 80.  Equiano this year should be £5k (and its a gamble at that) given the cliff he appeared to fall off sales wise.  All the whitsbury lot are £3-5k stallions.  Paco Boy & Mayson 4k at a push.  Anyway I'm pssin into the wind.

You used Delegator (which I think was logical but cant have 2nd season) - Cityscape ever going sell?

I also wonder how low (again given limited numbers covered last year) they would go on Pour Moi if I leave it late.  Sub £10k could look real cheap in 18mths but maybe they've already moved onto Camelot as the focus
Report potentialmillionaire January 20, 2014 12:48 PM GMT
I've given a lot of thought to Choisir this year yer ma.

I guess that when you see a Coolmore sire having covered a 'manageable size book' is it not very often a sign that they started off with a big one but were not able to get the job done? I don't see them being too hot on returning dual covers to Weatherbys if they can help it.

Choisir isn't the best is he and I guess Pour Moi could be a bit tricky too.

Maybe an attempt to get a real handle on the 1st season foals, if we have a mid to late season mare, might get us an angle on an otherwise risky 2nd seasoner? I feel nearly sorted now in my mind though so I've just got to make calls and commit.

Ps I fear my mare in foal to Delegator ain't no good shot to give us an idea on that particular crop!
Report neill d January 20, 2014 11:51 PM GMT
Given all that has happened in the last 18 months or so, Camelot will surely be pushed to the moon. Is nearly any price a good one now?
Report neill d January 20, 2014 11:53 PM GMT
"Then I've got a Sea The Stars and it is massive. It looks like a National Hunt horse. She's had a couple of runs and she's back on the walker now to come into training.

I'm sure they'll thank her for that
Report Prima Donna January 26, 2014 8:33 PM GMT
A spades a spade as the old saying goes,Pam Sly's just telling everyone how it is,MASSIVELaugh
Report yer ma January 27, 2014 12:12 PM GMT
Indeed she's giving it straight however the suggestion is the problem is with the stallion(s).  The mare's first foal (an Oasis Dream) was a boat too.   Bad money after worse but so be the whims of the owner breeder.  Seen any nice new stallions PD?  Have you a view on Pour Moi & lope de Vega?  I was impressed by specimens but dubious about the commercials down the line.
Report Prima Donna January 27, 2014 11:09 PM GMT
yer ma, yes, Pour Moi, I have a yearling by him that is very nice but not exceptional and that seems to be the trend. I think that his foal sale results were a little surprising in places and could be described as 'patchy' which is not really a point in his favour commercially.Long term you would have to be wary about how commercial he would be, perhaps a slash in fee is a sign of what 'The Boys' think of his chances. On the flip side {there is always a flip sideCool } if they want to get behind Camelot then they will want Montjeu's other son to have made some good returns in the ring and possibly on the track too. Talking of nice new stallions, Camelot is a very good looking horse and he could be a very nice prospect.Lope De Vega is another good looking horse, {if you overlook his head, but Shamardal/Vettori, what do you expect? Whoops } he gets nice stock and he has enough page to give him a chance of a decent one. They went to the right people so I wouldn't write him off at all. As for new stallions, Declaration of War is a smashing loooker and if he gets them like him, should be a sure fire commercial hit, though I would argue he is plenty high enough fee-wise and is about 15-20k over priced IMO given what he actually achieved on course. At the other end of the fee bracket, Swiss Spirit is bound to be commercial and at his level in England it is hard to see past him. Certainly Cityscape would not be on my list. I am left scratching my head re the popularity of his brother, first time round perhaps, but second season? And they are very choosy about what they will take so must be over subscribed.For example, I know of one breeder who had a 2yo winning daughter of a champion sire out of a multiple Gr winning mare and was turned down for BB, as 'not good enough' Crazy I would agree with Pot M regards Kyllachy, if we are looking at proven who have had fee hikes, I think I would prefer Clodovil to Kyllachy, as not only does he get decent runners he is less likely to get you a 'rat' and you can still make a turn on a filly by him. K could be more tricky on that front.
Report yer ma January 28, 2014 12:20 PM GMT
Could've had Clodovil at 5k last year but went for a package at Coolmore instead, probably a mistake.  His fertility is an issue for me as the mare is late tho.  Thanks for the summary - all helpful stuff.  Amusingly I have all but the same story re. Juddmonte, Mrs YM had no thanks to BB for a daughter of Classic winning filly with a listed sister who will be a grade 1/2 horse in US this year and a winner from one runner.  I nearly spat the dummy out but didnt really want one anyway.
Report Wilycayote January 28, 2014 3:25 PM GMT
Thanks Prima, a good summary which I fully agree with (worrying!)

If I had the money, I would have been crashing into Dec of War, but for me he is not as good value as Dawn Approach who is $5k cheaper and was a champion 2yo to boot.

Kyllachy not value any more. If you get a nice filly she only just makes the covering fee! you go bust quickly doing that.

It would be nice to have a "Clodovil-type" proven Danehill line stallion in England, but that doesn't exist.

At my end of the market its a bit of a no-brainer to fire a cheap mare into Swiss Spirit. Would have sent another mare to Royal Applause, but the market seemed to freeze on him last year for some reason.
Report neill d January 28, 2014 10:48 PM GMT
That looks a nice price for Dawn Approach, people must be concerned about the damside?? Should definitely get plenty of 2 year olds if he is anything.
Report potentialmillionaire January 31, 2014 8:38 PM GMT
Great news that Howie has made it from his Vegas penthouse suite for a little light interaction!

As ever he spices things up a little and another opinion is always welcome.

I would have been a bit quicker but I must confess to having abandoned my mares, for a few days on the slopes, before the nitty gritty commences in earnest.

Camelot and Dawn Approach along with Reckless Abandon and Swiss Spirit stand out as the value for 2014 to me and as we have all said Declaration of War is too rich, especially if they go for a 'double up'  on the first season premium by carting him off to the States next year.
Report Prima Donna February 2, 2014 6:30 PM GMT
Oh yes Pot M,Howie has indeed made it back but not from my penthouse in Vegas,I have had a nice break mind so now I'm all refreshed and ready to add my own opinions to what's going on.
Of those sires you mention above I'd say Dawn Approach is going to be the most commercial of that bunch.Hows the refurbishment of your new stud going,is it all coming together?I can't remember if after Dec' sales you said how you got on,I did see the results and thought you should of gone home feeling happy enough........again,were you?
Report potentialmillionaire February 2, 2014 10:29 PM GMT
Prima, luckily my new place is usable as it stands so the pressure isn't too great. I have two walls to demolish and one to rebuild to get decent foaling boxes and that really needs to be done soon as I've a maiden due shortly. Then the roofs need doing but it'll all come right in the wash hopefully!

Foal sales. Mmm.

I was lucky enough to breed very nice foals again in 2013 so I am not sure we are ever satisfied with the price we get for them are we? It's the dodgy ones that are deemed nicer than we thought that bring the real satisfaction.
I sold one to a particularly well known pinhooker and he was surprised he hadn't had topay more so that is always a bit galling and another one I thought was the best filly I had ever bred so I was of course after 'Alluring Park money Laugh

The rest were okay, obviously!Wink
Report Wilycayote February 4, 2014 4:56 PM GMT
Back to the subject of this forum....Finjaan

Today I received a letter from Gazeley (quite a strange letter is has to be said) that said they have now dropped Finjaan's fee to £3,000.

Without wishing to sound mean, as I always like to see people having a go, it smacked of desperation. If there is one thing that I have learnt in 20 years of this business is that you cannot change the momentum behind a stallion by manipulating the price. I don't think this will help him i'm afraid.

Its a fairly unforgiving market.
Report Johnny_Mustang February 5, 2014 7:18 AM GMT
I'm not surprised because they priced him wrongly in the first instance. £4,500 for an 8-y-o retiring to stud with 3 wins from almost 30 starts and in possession of a largely uninspiring pedigree? Even at their new reduced fee he's expensive and the very most he should command is £1,500.
Report Prima Donna February 5, 2014 5:11 PM GMT
I guess the nominations manager at Gazeley stud has had more than enough of sitting next to a silent telephoneLaughyes Johnny,agree completely.Milk it Mick the 2nd,doubt NMKT is the place for him now.
Report potentialmillionaire February 5, 2014 8:40 PM GMT
Well I suppose it is better that they acknowledge the **** up and slash the price rather than just sit around twiddling their thumbs.

Milk it Mick is NO analogy Prima as you well know!!

Finjaan is from a currently very hot sireline - much as I find it hard to acknowledge that - and he was a smart sprinting 2yo who sort of trained on. If he is good looking and one is confident of his ability to reproduce that then he is not without a shot.

Timing issues are problematic but you know my old Chesnut, F. C. Anyone? Laugh Forgotten horses can and do do it.
A proven stud would be a big help mind.
Report Prima Donna February 5, 2014 11:26 PM GMT
Shall I take it from that response that the one phone call Gazeley stud DID have was from you Pot M' ?ConfusedDevilLaugh
Report potentialmillionaire February 6, 2014 1:52 PM GMT
Prima, I like to play Devil's Advocate but I don't necessarily want to go down below to visit!

Mainly because I've a nasty suspicion as to whom I shall meet when I get there Devil

Maybe one of our coven shall have clapped eyes on Finjaaan this morning and will have a more educated opinion than mine.

Any other Feb sale news out there people?
Report yer ma February 7, 2014 4:51 PM GMT
I saw them yesterday and Finjaan is as I thought a nice specimen, looks like what he was - a decent sprinter. Cityscape looks like a hurdler and not an attractive one at that. Thought (from photos) I'd be more taken by Foxwedge, nice walk though. Nice looks but glad my Equiano walked much better than her dad.

£3k Finjaan is fair money imo, although I entirely agree about the dubious marketing / impression.  If you have a ceiling to your cover fee then I'm intrigued where the naysayers are suggesting sending a mare for some speed.  Don't say Mon Bond as the numbers STILL dont stack up and we're all agreed Swiss Sp is an option.   

Milk it mick is way off the mark, much more akin to Majestic Missile or Moss Vale (both 5k start) and I'm guessing he wasn't universally derided in Ireland PD?

I absolutely accept the irish market seems to 'get away with' / make a fist of standing these sub-top draw sprinters but I foresee a few decent sales first season and good luck to them.  And no I havent got one booked.

Re. Feb sale.  Strong for anything not completely shot.  4 fillies I considered made 50% more than I imagined, no bargains to be had.  Long way for a musks sausage roll.
Report Wilycayote February 7, 2014 6:38 PM GMT
I thought Cityscape could do with letting down quite a bit, but I didnt dislike him.

To answer your valid question on cheap speed Yer Ma; Swiss Spirit fits the bill 1st season, 2nd season option is surely Delegator. I know its not exactly "out of the box" thinking, but Im sure the Majestic Missile-type bargains are just a recipe for financial loss in the end. 

I see today that Libranno has found a home. I really envy their enthusiasm, but they are in for an uphill battle.
Report potentialmillionaire February 8, 2014 10:40 AM GMT
Firstly a quick crawl and fawn to yer ma and wily.

When you're a small breeder off the beaten track any nuggets of info are of great interest and a bit of Newmarket intelligence is just the job.

Yer ma made me laugh because I have lost count of the times I have gone to Tatts on a shopping expedition only to return with 3ibs of Newmarket Sausage as my only prize!! Indeed one time in a  ridiculously long gap between Lots that were of interest, I wandered down to Goldings and bought a new suit. Definitely one of my better buys in Newmarket, it does sterling service for births, deaths and marriages to this day!
Yer ma, you are most pertinent in your evaluation of a punt on Finjaan. I would accept that in this game a miss is as good as a mile, but there are a great many close equivalents, 3 of them at Ballyhane, that are too close to call in terms of similarity to F. It doesn't do to be too dogmatic as to which one will or will not come up with the X factor at the sales or on the track.

Wily I can see your description of Cityscape as,somewhat akin to my approximation of his merits. Because he is of interesting pedigree, much campaigned and very good he represents something one could take a chance with in many ways, but just one too many ghouls perhaps for me right now.

I am all but committed to Swiss Spirit, but I think he is not nailed on to get us a 2yo type. However his upside is that In my opinion he has more physical class than many, particularly at this level, so whilst compact and early may be off the menu, it could be replaced with scope and quality. An acceptable trade.

Did you guys think he was wearable in front? It was my only slight worry when I saw him in November.
Report Wilycayote February 8, 2014 2:15 PM GMT
S.Spirit walks quite wide, but is pretty good in front. As you say, he'll probably not be as whizz-bang as the Dandy Man/Zebedee types but will be useful to put a bit of class and scope into a butty sprinting mare.

I too only came away with a coffee and some stallion reconnaissance, but was happy really as thought there were some punchy prices for some pretty average stock.

ps. sad to see the flooded scenes of the trainer in Somerset on the Morning Line. I hope all those from this fraternity are keeping your heads above water.
Report potentialmillionaire February 9, 2014 10:05 AM GMT
Thanks for that Wily. Glad to get your seal of approval!

I thought the sale on paper looked very strong but with so few acceptable lots and so many withdrawals I suppose that was always going to be the way.
A friend of mine rang to ask about the chances of pinching Lulla (she of the sadly disappointing dam and the April Sir Percy (first too)cover) and thankfully I said to him maybe it might have happened in December, but not February!
Good luck to them with a filly foal and a potential empty mare next seasonSad

And how we are fed up of this wet!!

But Somerset I ain't so I'll keep my moaning trap shut for sure. Good luck out there to all really struggling.
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