I thought there was a recession in the country at present

only for the working class midas. and as no one bothered about the way the bankers robbed everyone blind then i have little sympathy. keep breeding the horses and drinking the bubbly lads!!

1.5m for galileo filly and john magnier outbid for 2nd time today money washing around at Tatts

Staggering figures against the backdrop of poor prize money. Seems prize money levels are totally immaterial to those at the top end.

The oil price is still high. If you have a few wells, you can afford a horse every 30 seconds. Whether there will be enough hay and oats to feed them all is another question. Food rationing for humans is only weeks away so what will the great British public think about feeding cereals to horses?

If the sale was priced in gold rather than paper money, a more realistic trend would be apparent
Lets hope there is still some money for the working mans sales later in the season

Good point BSB against shocking levels of prizemoney,won a class6 at Hamilton a few weeks ago,prize money after expenses approx £1200,average monthly training bills £1400 ish, I must be barmy!!

Tatt's sale imo looks plenty good enough,there is real strength in the 100-500k market with plenty who will push on above that level.But this is a refection of a much better catalogue than recent years,(perhaps as a result of low prize money or the recession people are choosing to sell their star yearlings and cash them in rather than wait and race them themselves), but the knock on is the horses that shouldn't be there are being fully exposed.

My theory is that everyone is bored of the recession.  It's been going for 4 years now and there is only so much frugalness, sensible spending and paying down your debts while interest rates are low anyone can stomach before you just think, sod it, you only live once, lets buy a new car / go on a nice holiday / spend £1.5 million on a Galileo filly.

things quieter today down to horses, but also some buyers gone home some nice types gone through cheap today

not that quiet. £2.5m for the 1/2 brother to Authorised by D Redvers. theres a man who has progressed in the last couple of years

now when i say quieter just realised people where saving there pennies


for a galileo half brother to authorised  for £2.5m wow

lol truehoncho snap

am iright in saying thats gone to qatar royal family?

the lads have gone mad for Oasis Dream.  Stand a stallion son and your whole world view changes...I thought they were trend setters not followers.  Pulling out all the stops to find some cover for their one (admittedly incredible) serious asset in Galileo.

with all this rain who would have thought water would be so expensive

I agree Yer Ma, they really need another top notcher

High chaparral imo is a quality sire who will be getting better mares now not sloppy thirds since Montjeu is gone. He is the one to watch as the replacement imo

The Matercraftsman's and Bushrangers must be a nice bunch for next year.

High Chap I am sure is grateful for your enthusiasm jmc27. Sadly at rising 14 he is not suddenly going to make a breakthrough in my opinion. Although I feel it might be slightly misguided, Fastnet Rock is their annointed number two and Pour Moi and Camelot will be above High Chap with probably Henrythenavigator favoured too.
Mastercraftsman for me is a big surprise this fortnight. I imagined there would be a lot of non walking ordinary types around, but there must be some nice ones out there for sure.
I know HRE is an odd bod, but I think if they can unearth a proper colt then I think that would be a popular potential sire and his daughters will be popular for breeding too.

what about Power? can he make it to the top?

Not great news re. Camelot.  He, HTN and the aussie horse would be my focus.  I'd be surprised if the Oasis Dream into Galileo / Montjeu matings being tried dont produce something better than Power.

Anyway, hope for trickle down to Book 2 and then pinhookers with bulging pockets come end Nov.

Redvers now on the morning line. Wogan will need to make a comeback if this carries on!!

Tattersalls have called the first day of Book 2 a "Solid Start". 260 lots, 180 sold (69%). Avg:38,063 Median:30,000

Take out the euphoria of the seven figure lots; bought by people who would probably race for nothing, and you've got a different reality on the coal-face.

A small number of buyers and few (if any) new players. It's quite worrying if you ask me. The Arabs and Magnier have been masking the wider ills in the industry and refracting the issues of funding for too long. As a consequence the Book 2/3 market is suffering due to lack of demand. On a median of 30k, at least half of breeders have made a loss. And the purchasers of these horses are also going to make a loss if they running at Kempton for £1600. How much longer can it go on for ?

The Racing Post fairly recently carried a very thoughtful piece on, I think, Doncaster whereby some agent, possibly Griffiths, presented the sales figures by decile: top 10% lots to bottom 10% and presented the comparatives for 2011. The specifics are not important but the picture presented was far more realistic and thought-provoking.

This is one of the best guides to the true state of any sale and it would be a decent service to provide on an ongoing basis. Needless to say the bottom deciles suggest breeders and pinhookers were haemorrhaging.

Wouldnt know it from this thread...yet horseracing is all about optimism, always has been always will be.  The market is more polarised for sure but if you make the 'wrong' choices and come to market with the 'wrong' horses then you'll get burned.   Looks to me that the better pinhookers are getting more right than they get wrong.  Funding issues are absolutely real but I dont think they drive the market.

I think yer ma is quite right. I can see it from all angles as I am for the most part a bottom feeder so sell a lot of stock at a loss. I wish there wasn't so much 'fashion' involved as that is difficult for even the savviest breeder to plan for and I suppose it would be better if the cash was a little more evenly spread around. I also get a bit p1ssed at the high profile mega pinhooks as they so often seem to involve the less than scrupulous agent/trainer as the end user - and ofcourse when it is obvious what the pinhooker needs to make his money it is also obvious that there are often 'deals' to be done.
Twas ever thus I suppose.
Back on message though. Think of the major fashion houses. They make a bomb on their pretty bottles of coloured smelly water sold at ridiculous mark ups which funds the whole show. Then ofcourse we might buy a cheap can of baked beans which the supermarket sells at a loss but the next moment J Sainsbury is flogging some attractively packaged ham at a quid a slice.
If a breeder aims to hit it (which he surely must) then a lot of bills will get paid and the Chesnut filly can be absorbed. But I have to keep trying to raise my game as shuffling along always at the bottom is fruitless indeed.
If we can't climb off the bottom occaisionally then it  really is impossible, but not necessarily a reason to diss the industry perhaps.

The loss leader analogy isn't really applicable to my mind. How many small time breeders with a few modest mares are either not breeding or dispersing stock altogether ? Too much expense/risk for too little reward.

Little people the world over will go to the wall if they cannot bring something unique or high quality to the table BSB. I stand by my opinion with regard to loss leaders. If a small business person just produces an ordinary cake in his bakery he'll be under, quick as a flash.
I produce what the market regards as ordinary most of the time (to me ofcourse they are all the next Frankel!) but provided I keep at it and work realy hard at getting it right then there is always just a chance I will get it right once in a while, and the rewards can then be significant.
I am grateful for that aspect in a funny sort of way. My mediocrity wouldn't be forgiven in most other trades.

PotM, I'm guessing you work too hard and risk too much for such modesty.  As some (too few) are prepared to admit - getting the star colt is at least 75% luck.  All we can attempt to do is avoid the duds and keep paddling until we can catch a wave.  Much easier to take strong views on the demise of an industry when you dont live it.  BTW dont be slagging Ch fillies Ive a full sister to a proper horse thats going to pay for my kiddies winter sun....I hope.

None intended PM but do you have a proper job as well?

Like the catching a wave analogy too, yer ma

I see a lot of stock in book 2 with breeding that is just not commercial. There are a number of stallions that have done very well. Its ok to lable it as fasion but its no suprise to me the ones that have done well we talk about them on here all the time.

Stallions like bushranger, kheleyf and aqlaam have all averaged well above their fees and they have all been talked about postively on this forum over the last couple of years. I think your too negative on the current market. Get stallions people are going to want and you will do well over time. That is what this forum is all about and there is a lot of good advice. I for one think its a good sale and I have no vested interest in it.

As far as the industry being polarised, well thats how the world is at the moment.

Proxy, whilst ofcourse watching my step, I am happy to put a little flesh on the bones of my set up.

I do not have a proper job, but have done several things over the years to keep the wolf from the door - pub, supermarket etc. and I never rule out the possibility of finding such work again if necessary. Fact is though if you sign a 10k stud fee contract then part time here and there doesn't make much impression

I am lucky that it is not my job to put a roof over my head and I have a very understanding partner who looks after that side of things. The business though (all rented premises) has to pay for itself at all times - every last penny -and I have no trust fund or inheritance sadly!

What I try to do is occasionally put a little jam on what is an extremely bread and butter lifestyle. No smart holidays, social life or technology in this house indeed one of my jobs is to get logs for the stoves - only heat - and patch the roof as and when.

Sorry if this is a load of old useless information but I suppose it highlights what sacrifices myself and I suspect yer ma will make in pursuit of the dream. I have learned over the years that tempting as it might be to invest any good sale back into increased stud fees or a new expensive mare it is rarely successful so I keep any surplus as just that and breathe a sigh of relief that there is enough money in the coffers to buy a couple of years security.

potM very interesting insight there and honest also, so what stallions do you use for your mares?

cunningplan, it struck me that if people had a few ideas about why I do this and what my circumstances are then what I spout on here might make a bit more sense and more importantly they might be able to tailor there advice to improve my lot!!

My stallion selection starts firstly with what would suit my mares physically, distance and pedigree wise. Then commercial factors rear their ugly head. I do think that if you try to breed a racehorse first and foremost then hopefully the result of that mating stands a chance of looking like a racehorse, and one may be rewarded at the sales accordingly.

I currently have on my radar, Nayef and Medicean for next year for instance. These are stallions that can get proper horses,  which the likes of Bahamian Bounty will only deliver once in a blue moon if atall frankly.
I have the perfect mares for them both at home and sometimes you have to make that leap for the sake of the mare and gamble that the uncommercial may be just having a commercial blip when one comes to sell. If you produce the perfect specimen by that type of sire you will be fine, but anything less and you may very well take it home with not so much as a single bid to you name.

I would gamble on such a mating with only one mare in any one season and the rest would need to be more commercially orientated in an attempt to pay for the 'leap of faith'

What I cannot stand is gatting 5 years down the line with a much loved mare who has failed to come up with the goods and to be riddled with 'if onlys' because I didn't give her every chance to get the job done. Although I try not to beat myself up too much because the really good ones just spit out a great foal almost regardless.

Great stuff PM (although I'm not entirely sure I believe that you're up on the roof, wearing your jute sackcloth or chopping firwood naked from the waist up!). I wish you well with Medicean (another great year) but I'm surprised by Nayef as I think he's gone commercially. Strangely enough, what's the deal with Bahamian Bounty all of a sudden? Good averages at Book 2 this week and people seemingly couldn't get enough of them.

No not naked from the waist up JM - I fear I'd block out the sun - but believe it, it's simpletons corner, these parts!

Glad you've got this back on the straight and narrow though. Just what is the deal with Bahamian Bounty, Royal Applause and strangest of all, Pastoral Pursuits?. Is there a paternity dispute going on as to the proper father of Frankel perhaps? I don't mind Clodovil too much, but 3 150k+ yearlings???

Some way off real matings work here so early days with the musings.

Brothers in arms so we are PotM ;)
I've wrenched myself away from relatively bright Book 3 to also express my perplexion (?) on BB and PP sales.  Thing is they are solid, hardy sprint handicapper sires and thats what the punters want.  100k plusers are a mystery tho.  I fear BB and Medicean will be back up to £10k plus this year.  I'm sure someone said on here RA was a sure thing...That said, way too many in the production line for the next two years, might be topping out imo.  HRE also very solid..hope the person who suggested I'd be better off with BigbadBob is reading.  Be very interesting where Myboycharlie pops up...  PotM I'd say Nathaniel rather than Nayef might buy more roof tiles.

Couldn't agree more, yer ma. As you say, BB and PP will get you a racehorse but I just don't get the demand for those sorts of prices. Tattersalls was a good sale and plenty of people look like they made money, but I just hope that the stallion guys don't see this as a green light to start putting fees up. Sixties Icon can probably just about merit a small fee increase (but not to his new elevated fee of £8,500) and I'm informed that Sakhee's Secret will also go up a little, but don't even get me started on the ridiculous fee for Caspar Netscher.

yer ma. no doubt Nathaniel would be a better bet than Nayef - not in an exclusive club there either! - but I have compelling pedigree reasons. V V unlikely that I'll take that chance though anyway. HRE should be fine but as we always say on here, it's tricky with the mega size book stallions as they have so much potential to disappoint. Prices are going to be particularly fascinating for so many horses me thinks. R.A. I have had the same reservations about for approximately 39 years but just when will it end? Having used him 3 times and 3 times lost money I have the never ending conflict of, Steer very well clear / you b@st@rd you owe me. . .
I am not sure Medicean's sale figures make a compelling reason for a fee rise, but I suppose they'll do it anyroadup.

JM I feel that Csper Netscher's fee is steep in historical/moral terms perhaps. But if you like a first season sire, and at least he has a bit of pedigree, you like his sire (and how much do we incidentally?) then 5+ sterling doesn't strike me as too bad a deal. It's the 1st seasoners that can really clean up and a large good looking 1st crop can get on a roll from just about any starting point. If he does so, you're sorted. If he doesn't then you aren't. Plus ca change!
You obviously hate him as a sire prospect, but given his home is he so bad as a commercial one?

a very entertaining thread, could i throw in Motivator - has he got anything left (despite being flares in 80s atm at the sales),  he still seems to deliver a decent horse