Forums

Bloodstock & Breeding

Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
potentialmillionaire
04 Apr 12 12:18
Joined:
Date Joined: 17 Mar 10
| Topic/replies: 2,698 | Blogger: potentialmillionaire's blog
A few years ago after a couple of seasons of good sales - aah, it was easy back thenConfused I went shopping for a few new mares. I bought 3 mares in Ireland at different sales over  a 12 month period, a maiden a 1st pregnancy and an 11 yo. if memory serves.

They were different types of mares but were all good looking winners with enough pedigree and I paid an average of 22k for the 3

Fast forward.

Maiden had 1, Colt covered it's costs/ 2, barren/ 3, colt didn't make the stud fee/ 4, colt covered the stud fee. Only one ran - useless - although the other 2 may end up jumping.

First cover had 1, Colt made 10k/ 2, barren/ 3, filly got nowhere near the stud fee st/ 4, filly nowhere near the stud fee. Two have run one placed, the other devoid of ability.

Older mare 1, filly, paid for the mare/ 2, filly sold below the stud fee/ 3, Colt covered the stud fee/ 4, Colt covered the stud fee.
All have run, two are placed one of which might be useful, the other two are very useful.

Fast Forward
Sorry if this is a bit grisley but I had all three put down.

The maiden was a very fragile accident prone mare who ended up with bad feet. if I had put her through a sale she would have ended up in a cheap NH home and she was too high maintenance for that type of environment.

The 1st foaler turned out to be nasty. She had a dreadful sales record and she too was not the type that would re-home successfully.

The older mare was by now 16 had had a poor recent sales record and I wasn't prepared to send her to a sale either. Her racecourse triumphs happened after I had made the decision.

I would make exactly the same decisions again at the end of the time but it was perhaps easier then because of the industry's horrendous over production. At the beginning of the time I only feel that the Maiden was an avoidable error in the future.

To those of you out there who are interested bystanders I thought you might like to see the flip side of the 100k yearling headlines!

To those of you out there who are in the game, please feel free to leave your tips as to the Must Haves and Must Not Haves when you go shopping for (preferably cheap) mares!
Pause Switch to Standard View Broodmares - A cautionary tale.
Show More
Loading...
Report Posh Paddy April 4, 2012 2:41 PM BST
I think you have just been unlucky PM. 

It appears that you went shopping 7 years ago / ish so 2005 / 2006.  As you point out overproduction was nearing its height and vendors were making money.

Fast forward 2-3 years 2008 / 2009 and you've landed in the middle of the credit crunch / world recession and most people in the game are losing money hand over fist.

From what I read you managed to beat the majority by making back the stud fees (when you had Colts).  The stud fees were set at the top of the market and you were selling at the bottom of the market.  I think you have actually done better than most.

Ultimately I'm too inexperienced to be able to help you with Must Haves & Have Nots when buying mares.  I bought mine because it belonged to a client of my in-laws, was cheap as it was otherwise going to the factory as the market had crashed & had produced winners.   I was too inexperienced & naive to see the many downsides.  I just thought I was buying at the bottom of the market and it would pick up in a couple of years and I'd make a few quid.  Subsequently I've had a reality check.

All I can advise is that you stick to your criteria and back your judgement.  At the end of the day that is all we've got.

If you were to buy those Mares again now I'm sure they would be cheaper than £22K each and stallion fees are less now too.

I think you, like many (not just in this industry) were just caught out with the economic cycle by buying near the top and selling near the bottom.   I think if you were to buy exactly the same type of Mares and send them to the same type of stallions again you would see different results.

Now it's just a case of researching the catalogues for likely new recruits, getting yourself to the sales and in the nicest possible way - growing a pair!Wink
Report potentialmillionaire April 4, 2012 3:05 PM BST
You see, straight away I learn something!

Thank you Posh Paddy. Stupid though it sounds - and I defend myself here by saying if we weren't a bit stupid we wouldn't do the job - I never gave a passing thought to buying at the top and selling the offspring at the bottom.

I prided myself on taking tough decisions at the bottom for sure but am still VERY wary about climbing back into the saddle. Still, the fact is that if you want to stay in the game you've got to keep pulling down those stirrups! And I'm back at the stage with reliance on one or two mares only, which I suppose is where you were fighting your rearguard action too.

Thank you for your considered reply - but I'm not sure you should be advising me on the b0ll0cks front - you've just been responsible for removing a pair Laugh
Report Prima Donna April 4, 2012 4:48 PM BST
If you are in the market to replace mares,the criteria I'd look for

1,Conformation.
2,Commerciality.
3,Family.
4,Broodmare sire.
5,Form

This is overall the order of merit I'd put them in.I can't say enough how important conformation is,I'd rather have a well put together mare with a light page than say a strong page but a horror.........remember lot 14 from Tatt's Feb' saleDevil.Commerciality if you are wanting to sell then you at least want winners and ideally current black type but plenty of winners on the page is what we all want to see.In some cases this can be sacrificed for family provided there is a good chance something may come up in the page.As an example I never discount anything with a strong Juddmonte family behind it as with these pedigree's there is always a chance a class runner will come up,so even something by an commercial disaster such as Three Valleys or Observatory say , would still be a go-er if a Juddmonte page backed it up. Juddmonte sires would be on my list as they are invariably well bred from good families themselves and should help as broodmare sires. Something like Zamindar, who is known for his top-class fillies and whose brother is a useful BM sire, would be a good example. Juddmonte have used him extensively on their Bahamian family and I certainly wouldn't turn my nose up at a Zamindar with that sort of page!
Broodmare sire, as said above well bred. But also a sire that is easy to mate to commercial sires. It is no good having a cheap daughter of a hot stallion as that instantly counts out any of his sons. Better to go for a flexi-sire, that could nick with emerging sire lines. Kahyasi was a good example of this as he was ideal for Danehill line horses.
As for form, a winner is great black type is better! But all those things affect price. IMO the mares race record is not a crucial thing. I wouldn't discount unraced mares and mares that have run plenty of times without winning have at least proved their physical and mental soundness for the job. To underline that though, a non-winning mare MUST have plenty of winners close up.
Then of course we get into the variables, fertility and a penchant for producing fillies, neither of which traits are easy to tell from a young mares catalogue page!
Report potentialmillionaire April 4, 2012 5:25 PM BST
God it's vile over here. I've been unable to turm a young weakish foal out in a proper paddock for fear of it damaging itself on the hard ground. Today, finally out it went after a dash of rain in the last few days and lo, the weather's so bad I've just bought them in early!

Thank you for your reply Prima. Funnily enough the worst of my three disasters was from an underperforming branch of a well known Juddmonte family and whilst it never did catch up with the best half of the family, it did get useful updates.
I don't find myself ever competitive with a Juddmonte dispersal mare, as the ones that are affordable are usually so grim. However sometimes they appear a generation removed from Banstead elsewhere, which is how I got mine.

I think that my list WOULD have been 1, conformation
                                            2, form
                                            3, Family
                                            4, Commerciality
                                            5, Broodmare sire

Always believing that a really good looking horse is commercial regardless of it's background I think I have taken that too far on occaision.

I think that my list NOW would be    1, Conformation
                                            2, Family
                                            3, Commerciality
                                            4= Form
                                            4= Broodmare sire

It's that old thorny conformation issue though. Which faults do you take. . . Crazy

And re-reading it I'm still of a dither. If the mare has won then you'll always get a buyer if the offspring looks good and somehow it feels like more of a help with an average foal too.  An average foal with a poor 'up front' mare but a better pedigree a generation back, well it's easy for a buyer to just say cr@p mare, ordinary foal - NEXT!

Still on a budget it's only ever a case of compromise.

And with an open budget, you end up buying Ramruma or Magical Romance!!!
Report truehoncho April 4, 2012 6:33 PM BST
great thread. I am hoping to increase my broodmare numbers this year within a tight budget. how improtant is the broodmare's sire? I have tried in the past to ensure that I don't buy a mare that will prevent me from going to Danehill Dancer and Green Desert mares. I am of the mind that Mr Prospecter line sires are a good option. I like Medicean and also like some of Chevely Park families.
My question is, are there sires that are big negatives that would stop you buying a mare that otherwise fits the bill?
Report Prima Donna April 4, 2012 7:20 PM BST
Beware truehoncho increasing your mare numbers can be a lot of extra cost esp' if your on a tight budget.I agree the Mr P line is a good place to start as I said above both Zamindar and Zafonic are good as is your choice Medicean.They are great for sons of Danehill and Green Desert,the Juddmonte two add a touch of class that's always nice.
If you do get a mare by Medciean try to get one with a half decent page.Any commercial mare needs some preciosity behind her on a low budget a sniff of black type is ideal brilliant if its in the first dam.There are pros and cons with any BM sire but off the top of my head I wouldn't go mad for Roberto line stallions as ime they can both get temperament and limb conformation and are not always the sort to get the early commercial sorts.About the best to try and get is something with a nice page behind it.Types that do come up at the sales things like either Juddmonte or Aga Khan family's with stallions that work well with commercial stallions that the market wants as I said above Kahyasi was one of the best as most of his daughters were good looking well put together mares that's always the best place to start.You may have seen on this forum in the past I have a now retired mare who is basically kept as a pet now she is about the best looking mare I've ever seen and is very special to me she is by Kahyasi and all of her foals were fantastic looking individuals she worked very well with Danehill and Green Desert.You don't have to spend mega bucks to get something half decent the Kahyasi mare was acquired for less than a night out......but is now priceless!Love
Report yer ma April 4, 2012 7:43 PM BST
Hugely admire your honesty & humility in this thread PotM.  Can't argue with PD or your lists - ticking most of boxes at sub 25k is very difficult IMO.

I've bought 4 in last couple years and it's been compromises all the way. My fundamentals are - always have a plan with each mare (sales strategy for offspring, covers, decisions if x or y happens in family), take a view on stallions and how that impacts each mare (do I like what the have had or close relations have had - are they undervalued?), research families for live help and lastly give the market what it wants (preferably next)...acclamation is a case in point.

Overall while I'd like to think I know what I'm doing, luck is a massive factor in this business. I just had a filly full sister to recent listed winner - if it's a nice colt I cover my year. No control over that.

Back to the CCTV :)
Report potentialmillionaire April 4, 2012 7:59 PM BST
Fabulous, a great looking mare for the price of a bag of Fish and Chips.

Oh, are your nights out a little more glitzy than mine Prima? Laugh

Time and time again a broodmare will not get the job done will she. I think that an obvious broodmare prospect, you know the type, shiny, beautiful and fat with a mane and tail from a L'Oreal advert and more pedigree than you can shake a stick at, well the ammount of people that will overpay for that 'Because she's worth it' is considerable. I often think it is the solid, likeable but mousey types that are the best bet.

I would struggle to buy a mare by a poisonous sire because that can be hellish offputting. I'm thinking Where or When, Salt Dome, Dr Devious types truehoncho.

yer ma, thanks for that. I just thought of the experience earlier in discussion with Prima so thought I would put it into words for everyone to have a laugh at/maybe learn from (delete as appropriate!)
I don't feel particularly noble in sharing it as we are only ever a step away from such disasters and I don't think talking yourself up in this game is ever very wise Happy
Fillies sure as hell can land you up the creek. I hope your square eyes are looking at a fat tummy full of colt!
Report Prima Donna April 4, 2012 8:37 PM BST
A bag of Fish and Chips indeed......take it from me Pot M  my nights are a little more glitzy than that!Not that there's anything wrong with them mind I have had some but not for years,saying that mind there is a Fish and Chip shop just off Rous Road in NMKT along by the Police station I went in there once as the shop sells papers as well at the time I was feeling a bit peckish I was very tempted to buy some as they did smell good.There you are even people like me crop up in the most unusual places!
That piece about the L'Oreal mare is so true it reminds me of that 100k dreg we were stupid enough to buy,I agree the solid mousey type is the best!

yer ma good luck with the new foal hope it goes well,let us know what you get.
Report potentialmillionaire April 4, 2012 9:37 PM BST
How long were you detained over the road that it made you so peckish when you finally got out and into the Chippie then Prima?
And more to the point, just how did you persuade Slick'n'Smooth to come up with the bail?
I bet she's regretted it ever since Grin
Report proxygene April 4, 2012 9:48 PM BST
Great thread. Having only put a foot in the shallow end in the last 3 years there's a lot more I should gain from this than I can provide. I don't mind admitting my errors in judgement even though some are no doubt still pending, but I'm loathe to reveal some of the bad luck I've had no control over. (Even if all viewers are vendors and not potential purchasers) I'm also wary of lurching from one mistake into the opposite one.

1) My earlier observations are that keep costs are relatively fixed and in my case a fair proportion of any budget, so looking for one 20K mare is better than 2 bargain 10K or even 5K mares.

2) turning a profit or even breaking even becomes more difficult the lower the level of cover, but obviously the risk/exposure is less.

3) In a buoyant market cast off mares are just that surplus to requirements or no good. In a rationalising market the proportion of mares being let go out of necessity is greater as is the number of mares available. Supply has crashed their valuation to that of virtually the cover alone. Yes good mares are out there as a consequence but they are only bargains if their offspring can be sold profitably, no easy task.

4) I'd like to think I've stepped on the horsing ladder at the right time, but it won't be so unless things pick up before the money (the non pension) runs out.

5) I suspect the best entry age might be a second hand 2 year old filly at my level, less competition, less novelty, less specialists, some scope for improving. Whether I could afford the 4 year lag to see offspring perform (albeit in someone elses care) is another matter.
Report potentialmillionaire April 4, 2012 10:19 PM BST
proxygene, I feel duty bound to keep opening my gob as I started the rot!

Let's not count the c0ck ups still to come! But your point about lurching from one mistake to the opposite is pertinent. I am not sure a new broom is always appropriate, just a constant state of tweaking perhaps.

Obviously your 2nd point about not filling the place with cheapies and their expensive keep cost is very true. However I could look at ten 20k mares against ten 5k ones and I am not sure how many of the 20ers would end up anything like 4 times as good. There is no guarantee of success whichever scale you operate at but I think what you get by way of chances from a 10k mare or a 20k mare will probably purely depend on luck at the time of purchase and beyond.

Your 5th point. As an angle, I am just wondering whether to have a look at the better breeze up sales with a view to seeing what sort of filly can be bought following a disappointing breeze. Anyone tried that?
Report proxygene April 4, 2012 10:26 PM BST
I'd go more for a wrongly campaigned one in Oct, rather than a wrongly campaigned one in April probably with more family then too.
Report proxygene April 4, 2012 10:28 PM BST
Obviously this is advice I never took on my purchases, despite thinking it was the logical way to go, but then Mrs P and I had the joy of naming instead.
Report Prima Donna April 4, 2012 10:41 PM BST
Even double the bail it'd be worth it..........I'm expensive but fun and she knows I'm worth every bit!

Mares in the 20k range are a bit like stallions in that range....can be very dangerous and can loose a packet fast!Always go for something well put together as you point out poxygene some costs are fixed but look for a precocious son of a hot sire.Nothings set in stone and in this game its pretty much a guessing game and as yer ma said you do need luck and plenty of it,but using stallions like this at least you will get lookers when you come to sell.There is value out there and as a starter a max' 5k stud fee gets you a chance of a return.
Report proxygene April 4, 2012 11:18 PM BST
I'd hoped to develop the hand I'd dealt myself over more than the short term, which generally means proven over pretty. However no income no project so I will have to compromise (mix and match) in a clinical rather than idealistic way.

Whether HMRC will accept that a 20k mare loses 19k as she foals these days I will have to wait and see.

Current mistake both mares May covers. Waiting on one warm and one cooling sire and needing colts obviously. Wished I'd gender scanned, and will do next time if covered.
Report truehoncho April 5, 2012 8:38 AM BST
unraced 2yo's at tatts july sale and low grade 2yo's in doncaster autumn horses in training offer a very cheap way into cheap mares. I was talked out of bidding for Bronterre's sister a couple of years ago at Doncaster. She never got a bid.

if you had space you could get 2 or three for very little money and turn them out for a couple of years to see if the family improves, or just breed 1 of them and turn out the others.
Report potentialmillionaire April 5, 2012 1:38 PM BST
Aah, Proxgene a man after my own heart.

I hate trading mares. I am too slow in acknowledging it needs doing, preferring to wait until they have lost every last penny of value. I think we all suffer from the 'if only' syndrome - that stallion didn't suit her, how was I to know he'd be useless, if only she'd had a colt, it wasn't her fault that her 1st foal ended up abroad, the list goes on.

I am trying to come to terms with the fact that a good mare makes her own luck. I have been lucky enough to have a couple and I hope I might now have unearthed another. Year in year out they get pretty close to the mark - wherever you send them. So I try not to get as hung up on trying to 'make' a mare as I used to.

Certainly you have to keep casting your net. You can catch a nice mare in a seemingly impossible looking parcel. Then that mare will help you every step of the way with your efforts to develop her future.

I am slow learning anything and I convince myself that it is because I only have a few mares! Forgive me if I am teaching my grandmother to suck eggs out there.

I try to listen to the guys on here who I imagine to have plenty of mares as they can learn as much in a season as I've learned in a lifetime. Mind you, I imagine that some dogma creeps in at times.

I have absolutely no compunction in writing down stock values sooner rather than later. HMRC can go whistle. It's the reality of our game.
Report proxygene April 5, 2012 2:23 PM BST
Perhaps our first non stillborn foal can teach the HMRC. Don't suppose I ended up with PD's dreg mare did I?
Report potentialmillionaire April 5, 2012 3:54 PM BST
He'll let you know!

Ooh, another thought to give comfort to those with stillborn foals and the like out there.

My first maiden mare.

Year 1. Went to be covered by an older slightly mad stallion. She was a bad shape and the stallion well endowed, got his brain in a twist and they thought that he might have a heart attack so the union was called off. So there she was, geographically out on a limb and in season so I reluctantly agreed to be covered by the other stallion on the place. She didn't get in foal that heat period though so I could have moved her after all. Anyway in foal to a later heat period she came home and had a 5 week premature dead filly foal.

Year 2. Barren

Year 3. Struggled to get her in foal.  Result, Dreadful chesnut filly foal the result of an expensive Irish trip too. No bid foal, no bid yearling.

Year 4. Foaled late because of the previous year, joy of joys a filly. No bid foal but looked a bit useful as a yearling and covered her costs.

Year 5. Left empty, nay, abandoned really!

Year 6. One last try because the yrlg looked likeable and I was very naive - nowadays I would walk away - and finally the Holy Grail a bay colt.

Year 4 then won a stakes race and away we went. She never became an easy mare but they were usually worth waiting for. However perhaps she is the reason I hang onto mares for too long Cry

I am pretty sure though that Prima Donna has a lovely mare on the track that since she went to stud makes the above look easy! It's the disasters that keep us ploughing on. . .
Report Prima Donna April 5, 2012 4:55 PM BST
No proxygene I'm happy to say that the dreg mare is now out of the industry,I sold her in foal to a stallion that was popular at the time.She was bought by a breeder in NMKT since the sale she has now been retired and is kept I understand as a riding horse,she produced another horrifying disaster this time for her new owner.........thank god not me!
And Pot M you can be sure yes I do have a lovely mare on the track who has been a little nightmare at stud in fact I've got more than I care to think about its a sobering thought at times the cost of it all,I'm sure just the running cost's alone would scare the pant's off most people and I try not to think about it too much!Whoops But as you say we all keep ploughing onHappy
Report proxygene April 5, 2012 6:02 PM BST
I did get out the enigma sire codebreaker book for 1997, to decrypt a message and it was great to look through what would have happened...I do remember being at the yearling sales and thinking that looks nice, that looks nice, ok it may have been in the eye of the beholder, but they were Be My Chiefs, so lucky the mortgage soaked up all available funds at the time.
Report proxygene April 6, 2012 3:27 PM BST
Here's a reply to Truehoncho's early post. Being a stato I do hold broodmare sires as important, if only due to the volume of data. My toxic twenty broodmare sires 1983 to 2011 are


-11679    568    Taufan
-11936    78    Coquelin
-12566    207    Jalmood
-12616    1364    Alzao
-12821    158    Anitas Prince
-13036    349    Forzando
-13469    133    Bairn
-13580    229    Spectrum
-13624    206    Beveled
-13663    182    Deploy
-13685    145    Sayf El Arab
-13704    100    Chilibang
-13759    28    Kings Signet
-13827    189    Vision
-14047    158    Perugino
-14074    353    Never So Bold
-14089    93    Mystiko
-15043    54    Environment Friend
-17602    424    In the Wings
-21067    367    Groom Dancer

First column rating, second volume of data(runners x years they ran where sufficient examples)
Report proxygene April 6, 2012 3:33 PM BST
and I guess a top 5 isn't too much of a giveaway, since few are still about

32970    912    Mill Reef
25825    691    Ahonoora
23039    1662    Habitat
23026    317    Rousillon
22680    1927    Shirley Heights
Report Posh Paddy April 6, 2012 8:07 PM BST
Excellent, my late one and only mare was an Anita's Prince.Laugh. She bred winners so I'm not bothered. Fingers crossed she gets 1 more.
Report potentialmillionaire April 6, 2012 8:33 PM BST
proxygene, what a rogues gallery!!!

I am interested to see Groom Dancer as the very worst as anecdotally I would have had him as having some success. The other one who you would expect to have a result or two perhaps would be Spectrum as his pedigree you would hope could act independent of his sire ability a bit like Rousillon.

But by and large they are a truely grim bunch. Vision Jalmood Chilibang. . . I used Perugino and Forzando but can claim do have no carnal knowledge of the others!
Report truehoncho April 6, 2012 8:39 PM BST
thanks for the reply Proxygene, i wont pretend to understand the scoring system, but many thanks for the response.

i am suprised to see Groom dQANCER AND iN THE wINGS ON THE LIST, I would have thought there were many worse ones than them. (Note that I am not disagreeing, just suprised)
Report proxygene April 6, 2012 8:43 PM BST
I'm trying to quantify performance in relation to opportunity. Both would have had the opportunity for their mares to go to decent sires put on average didn't take it.
Post Your Reply
<CTRL+Enter> to submit
Please login to post a reply.

Wonder

Instance ID: 13539
www.betfair.com