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potentialmillionaire
07 Jan 11 15:38
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Date Joined: 17 Mar 10
| Topic/replies: 2,698 | Blogger: potentialmillionaire's blog
Now I know we may have done him at some length already so apologies as even with my lack of life I gave up the search for exactly where.

I  don't like reverse shuttlers and I don't like analysing other country's stats.

Is her really the "second coming" - Coolmore ?

He certainly covered some nice mares last spring but not in huge numbers.

I'm happy to hear all comments but would you flag up whether they are direct from the  Flannelling Fethard  Flunkies or a more reliable source, for your resident thicko!
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Report wee sammy January 7, 2011 6:25 PM GMT
Coolmore shipped him up last year primarily to cover some of their top mares in order to come up with a fast horse that they could eventually stand as a stallion. The feeling was they had to many middle distance horses on the rooster at Coolmore.
Some breeders would argue the only Danehill horse to use are the fast ones.I think of the 88 mares covered over 40% were Coolmores so there won't be many at the sales.
Report potentialmillionaire January 7, 2011 7:28 PM GMT
Thanks wee sammy. I am also of the opinion that a fast son of Danehill is the more desirable and because of the classic nature of his later mares the younger stallions have their question marks I feel.

One of the major reasons that I have been giving Fastnet some thought.

Can he make the cross over from a Coolmore 'private project' to an obvious commercial prospect?

And then ofcourse will the results on the track follow on? How good is he?
Report Prima Donna January 7, 2011 9:02 PM GMT
Thinking of taking a chance on him Pot M?A good sort we have used him and our looking forward to the foal.I think he has a great chance and could be serious.
Report STELLAR MANIPULATOR January 7, 2011 10:49 PM GMT
Languishing around 18th in the sires list down under at the mo - hardly the second coming on that basis and he aint cheap either ....
Report potentialmillionaire January 8, 2011 2:34 PM GMT
Yes Stellar, I saw that too. He is top tennish on quality and s.w/runners though. Also I noted that he is the youngest horse in the top 20 with only 2 crops of racing age. I then thought that with all those older geldings winning good prize money for the older sires his 18th is perhaps perfectly acceptable.

I liked his depth and bone Prima, very much. I haven't seen him though but am flitting around wondering whether I've got enough clout for Coolmore to offer me a foal share so I thought I should give thought to any possibilities on that score.
Report Prima Donna January 8, 2011 9:33 PM GMT
You could do a lot worse Pot M,mind you he was around the 30k/35k range last year,would you want to be in for that much?Remember you are always best being the best mare in any stallions book than middle/bottom(I'm not saying your mare is that class but you know what I'm saying[;)])BTW on the other thread I thought you knew who I was[;)]Confused
Report RipVanWinkle January 8, 2011 10:50 PM GMT
I have a good story about buying a mare in foal to this horse i cant discuss the details to much but we got a bargain in the end one of my highlights of last year, Another man was going to buy her he was going starting off in breeding but never asked an agent to help him but did have a point to point trainer helping him but they pulled out of the deal as they had never heard much about some horse called Fastnet RockLaugh. She's a nicer mare than the one that we bought infoal to Mastercraftman.
Report potentialmillionaire January 8, 2011 10:51 PM GMT
You can help me out here Prima. I would be comfortable here with a £15/20k nomination, but can't find that. Firstly I agree with you that this is a very tricky zone in the current market not to mention the fact that it is not very well populated. Should we be avoiding it at all costs and either covering at upto 10k or going to Galileo? Secondly a foal share with a lower value sire doesn't seem to make a lot of sense does it? After all, with all the expenses to absorb you want a shot at 50% of worthwhile, because it has to be hoped it will exceed 100% of a moderate sire's potential return. Also you want to get into a decent prospect for the sake of the foals potential on the track.
I am also a great believer in being at the top of a stallion's book at the sales. However being the top individual by a stallion at the sale is the real aim and that is down to your mares expertise on the confirmation front not a bit of printing in a blue or green book. ( I know that a well 'papered' mare has more potential on the beautiful foal front, but there are plenty  of exceptions).
On that tangent, I enjoyed the article on the Wertheimers in this months Owner/Breeder which inferred they really liked the slow dam of Goldikova more than her brilliant full sister!

Finally, I think I have a handle on the 'empire' but there is plenty out there - and on here - that leaves me doubtful - you've definitely got the edgeGrin
Report Prima Donna January 8, 2011 11:41 PM GMT
You can help me out here Prima. I would be comfortable here with a £15/20k nomination,

Pot'M this is THE most dangerous market to be in. My honest advice would be to up the cost or look lower. The cost of the nom DOES NOT improve/decrease the value of that foal to any great extent.Nether does it place your mare in a particular 'market'. Her page, conformation and racecourse performance of offspring set that for you, not her covering. There would be little point in a foal share at a lower cost, why would you need to, if your budget is 15-20 and the nom is 12k then why the need to share?
The level of mare in a stallions book is a tricky thing I know. And whilst being a very nice individual by the sire is surely a great help, you need something on the page to get people to open the door to see the magnificent beast! A low grade mare amongst 88 others by the same high class (read, expensive) sire will not stand out on the list however pretty the animal. However if you pick a commercial prospect from a lower fee range and your mare then is above average or rates highly, there will be plenty of people to view. If the mare is good conformationally and she throws that, then she will throw that to her foal regardless of sire.

Also you want to get into a decent prospect for the sake of the foals potential on the track.

The 15-20k range is very scary place for this prospect. Paying 17.5 for Dylan Thomas or Mastercraftsman is a dangerous game as how do we know they will be a good chance of getting a decent shot on the track? A deal on Duke of M down from 25 is another huge risk. How many horses are there that are very likely to get you a good racehorse in your fee bracket? This is why I say you may need to adjust up if that is your criteria.

I enjoyed the article on the Wertheimers in this months Owner/Breeder which inferred they really liked the slow dam of Goldikova more than her brilliant full sister!

It is easy to like the good ones. And much much easier with hindsight!!
Report Posh Paddy January 8, 2011 11:52 PM GMT
Sorry to bring this back to topic but isn't Cape Cross the same price roughly as Fastnet Rock, I know which I'd prefer.
Report Prima Donna January 9, 2011 7:05 AM GMT
PP, isn't Cape Cross the same price roughly as Fastnet Rock, I know which I'd prefer.

Would you indeed...........do you think that the commercial market would agree with you?
Report potentialmillionaire January 9, 2011 1:39 PM GMT
I wouldn't get a Cape Cross. He's been full for some time (somewhat inexplicably) and I wouldn't even have tried a foal share there, no chance methinks.

He's a proven good stallion, but not a megastar and right now the market is over-punishing him for 'notional' failings.

Sorry Prima for not being a bit clearer, I don't have the money for that level of cover (15+) hence me finding myself between cheap and a foal share. Mind you, that probably doesn't preclude me from anything too exciting really does it, as to buck that worrying price strata there aren't more than 5 to even consider at that level.


With regard to door opening opportunities - and I agree that they are most reluctant sometimes - I am aiming for the so fashionable sire that they will look at something out of a half zebra! I don't entirely agree with you that a mare sets her own level - when unproven anyway - as I think that the level you  pitch her at does have some influence on buyers perceptions. Afterall, a borderline mare has to be nudged either up or down through someones decision, and it's a subjective choice that everyone in the industry has to make for themselves. Obviously I'm not talking about a Rock Hopper plater winging her way to Oasis Dream, but somewhere in the middle when there's no definitive answer.
Report Prima Donna January 9, 2011 5:50 PM GMT
Sorry Prima for not being a bit clearer, I don't have the money for that level of cover (15+) hence me finding myself between cheap and a foal share. Mind you, that probably doesn't preclude me from anything too exciting really does it, as to buck that worrying price strata there aren't more than 5 to even consider at that level.

Which sires (if you don't mind me asking)are you considering pot M?Feel free to tell me to mind my own!Grin
Report potentialmillionaire January 9, 2011 8:52 PM GMT
I'll try and cobble something together for you to beat me with Prima Cry.
Report Prima Donna January 9, 2011 9:02 PM GMT
I'm interested Pot M and please don't think I will beat you up,I always try to respect other breeders views,we all can learn from each other.
Report potentialmillionaire January 10, 2011 2:52 PM GMT
I know the Irish make a decision, book it and then lookforward to the outcome.

This English dithers, rings up to find it full, books something else and dreads all that can go wrong.

This is for a mare carrying her 1st foal.

I like 1st season or proven and and am not fond of anything inbetween.
For this particular mating I will not look at 3rd or 4th year.
I don't particularly want to travel and there is no 'cheapy' that I think makes that worthwhile in this case

Against those negatives. This mare is quite outcrossy and could go just about anywhere. Danzig in all it's guises would be brilliant. I don't want excessive stamina or light confirmation.

Now I know written down that makes me seem quite awkward, but I'm not sure that it's much different to anyone elses requirements, so how come it only leaves me with the following bag of spanners? ;

Medicean    Halling     Equiano
Showcasing  Acclamation Starspangledbanner
Verglas

Maybe foalshare Ripvanwinkle
Def.  foalshare Fastnet Rock
Def. & fat chance foal share D.D.!

So, to sum up, before you go pulling the truly dubious off here - what are you gonna leave me with!!
Report RipVanWinkle January 10, 2011 4:06 PM GMT
Medicean,Halling,Equiano wouldnt be for me now, nearly had a mare going to Medicean last year but she foaled late and we left her dry which i'm nearly happier with.

Both you and PD make good points for Showcasing and he might be your best chance at this stage but i wouldnt send a mare over from here to him i'm very happy that our mare got in Arcanos book because wanted to use a son of Oasis Dream and Aqlaam was a big no.

I am using Acclamation, Starspanglebanner and Rip Van Winkle (heard his book might not be as good as expected but that was over a month ago) this year so i am putting my faith in them out of the three of them i would recommend Starspanglebanner for your mare from what i read above. Have a mare in foal to Fastnet Rock but nothing going to him this year so far. Am looking forward to this foal as we bought the mare in foal with a great covering which is always great.

Havent checked it up but how was Verglas's sale results this year so far am sure a serious profit is there to be made he is a good sire for the price he stands for.

Potm as for using Danehill Dancer it would be a big gamble if your trying to make a profit because many of his progeny dont sell good sometimes but so how much is to be made out of that cover.
Report potentialmillionaire January 10, 2011 7:41 PM GMT
Thanks Ripvan. Sorry I didn't mention your earlier Fastnet Rock mare as I had missed it when we posted at the same time. I hope she goes well for you - and doesn't head the way of the point to point man, who missed out Laugh (I'm sure she won't!)

I'm pleased you got an Arcano nom. Has anyone seen him yet? It's nice to be on board something hot, and as you know I'm a fan of Shadwell support and book sizes so I am quite envious (as long as he's a looker!)

I think that SSB is a good commercial choice, but financially it is a bit rich really (for me, not the mareSad ) Mind you I've had a bit of a tonic as I put the mare up to one horse today who is full, but they 're-opened' him as they wanted the mare. Maybe I am in the Prima Donna league after allLaugh ( I'm not committed incidentally)
Report RipVanWinkle January 10, 2011 8:11 PM GMT
Which stallion was that Potm not to many are full?

Was some story Potm but it does show some of the fools out there these are the same kind that paid huge money during the good times without knowing the industry and how it fluctuates.

I saw Arcano he is a nice sized stallion not to big so hopefully will be well able to get two year olds although i thought he was light of the cannon. He has a nice shoulder with a good backend on him not leggy at all.
Report Prima Donna January 10, 2011 8:57 PM GMT
Pot M,A few things that would be helpful to know in this case,is the mare a winner?Is she black type? and did she need a trip or is she fast?One more can you say who she is carrying to is this the one you have in-foal to Champs Elysees?

Medicean    Halling  ShockedThese two would be struck off right now,Showcasing  Acclamation Starspangledbanner
Verglas,All of these are worth a punt,imo Acclamation is a sound choice but in my experience you need a strong sort as he can get them like his sire(who I know you like and have used)Verglas is a nice sire he can get a good runner and he does get nice sorts so yes he's in with a shout we tend to use him often,Showcasing I like but saying that in Barbados recently his name came up in conversation to my surprise he got some very negative remarks,he will be up against a few similar sons of Oasis Dream you could maybe think you will need a very well bred and smashing looking one to make a great return as the word saturation was used.Starspangledbanner(a hell of a name)good sort sure to get strong foals from a great sire line but he has a Australian family and his own sire has not really 'done it' up here how much perhaps will that be held against him I wonder but I think he is a commercial choice all the same.

As for your foal shares,I tend to fully agree with Rip Vans comments regarding Danehill Dancer as you know we like him but sales wise he has once or twice let us down could you be sure your mare is really good enough for him?Fastnet Rock as we have said above good choice give them a ring and ask...they can only say no!Yeah Rip Van Winkle if you want to make money selling then use him he will be good first time and will get plenty of promotion from his outfit,personally I doubt he will be much of a sire in the long run.
Report potentialmillionaire January 10, 2011 9:16 PM GMT
I think I need to keep Mum on that one Ripvan, otherwise I blow my cover slightly.

There are more full than I thought mind. Ravens, Teo, Cape Cross, New Approach, Shamardal, Dubaawi,Ifraaj Exceed & Excel, Nayef, Aqlaam, Arcano and Royal Applause are full. Makfi also. I Imagine Oasis Dream Invincible Spirit and Bahamian Bounty are full too. If you then add all the horses that are at a level that most of us think the full sign should have been put out - well it just proves to me that there's still a lot of folks who seem to be operating in a parallel (100% profitable) universe to the rest of us!

Thanks for your confirmation assessment of Arcano, that's always a help.
Report RipVanWinkle January 10, 2011 11:16 PM GMT
We were lucky we got into a nice few of those books but we did send in our nominations early and they are fairly decent mares. Potm just wondering do you have any other breed?
Report potentialmillionaire January 11, 2011 11:11 AM GMT
Just flat mares Ripvan. Although breeding a 3rd in the Grand National is also on my CV - it was an abberation I assure you !!!!
Report Prima Donna January 11, 2011 1:11 PM GMT
Potentialmillionaire,
I have asked you a few straight forward questions above,and gave you my opinions on your stallion selections that you put forward.You are obviously not duty bound to reply to me or indeed anyone else on these forums for that matter,but I have always had the grace to reply if asked anything by anyone,is there something that you are not happy with,either with me or my reply?
Report potentialmillionaire January 11, 2011 2:07 PM GMT
Prima I am really sorry about that. I am a slow typist and try to be considered in my replies - also I might be watching something on the box with this thing on my lap!

Your post at 20.57 came through whilst I was typing a reply to Ripvan, sent 21.16. I had completely missed your reply and was only thinking this morning how unlike you not to have responded! Very sorry and I shall now backtrack. . .
Report potentialmillionaire January 11, 2011 2:50 PM GMT
Damn, I wish I hadn't backtracked!

Showcasing. We have discussed on this forum before (and agreed!)that there are a ton of muchness of muchness sires going to stud this year. Showcasing worries me as he maybe has the lowest profile of them all. However, Whitsbury are quite good at kicking their 1st seasoners into gear and I would be surprised if the others are significantly more classy looking (commercially at least) and my guess is that he might actually be the best looking, so if he translates that to his sales crops then - well whichever of them does that best wins doesn't he -
I can't see a way out of using him I'm afraid and actually have thought of sending two but I need to avoid that don't I?


I've got a mare in foal to Acclamation and right now it feels as if I actually got something right! I always see him as a very consistent stamper of stock and am surprised you seem to think the mare is so crucial. Interesting. The mare I have t.i.f. fits your brief but the mare I want doesn't! He scares me a little because the interest in him this year and last has been little short of hysterical and that means there could be a long way to fall for him. (pessimist I know)

Starspangledbanner (dreadfulname[;)] I would use in a flash if he were somewhere else and might still do. Same old worries though about farm and book size. . .

Since I started this post, even I've had to make a few calls, and the foalshare thing appears to be pretty off limits for me.No mention of mare,it's just my face that doesn't fit really.

I'm quite surprised that you are a Verglas man. Mind you at one point I did think that you might have had a pretty major history with him (via Slick) but surely even you aren't that important! (and if you are, don't waste your time talking to me Laugh) Would you ever want to use him enough to ship your best mare foaling her 1st foal? I am struggling to reconcile that.

The mare is a good runner, size and scope, would perhaps take a bit of strengthening up but I'm hoping that she has enough class for that not to be crucal. In foal to a young sire who gets plenty of winners but is most peoples idea of disappointing so far. [;)]
Report RipVanWinkle January 11, 2011 5:12 PM GMT
You must be on about HRE Potm?. Well if you think your using Acclamation the wrong year then i must be making a big mistake.

The problem for studs with foal shares is that the stallion owner wants to get a foal share with a very good mare and the breeder wants to use a better horse than there mare probably deserves to be covered by, because they think they have a good deal going with the stud but studs only want foal shares where they think something quite good will come (not saying you have a bad mare PotmSilly)

Have you thought about using Green Desert because you know that you have a possible buyer and he is a very good sire but getting old so select mares
Report Prima Donna January 11, 2011 6:30 PM GMT
Pot M,First of all allow me to apologise for my 13:11 post,I didn't realize you had missed my previous post it just looked as if you had just made the decision to not reply to me(which by the way is your prerogative)we all can and do make mistakes on this forum.

Foal shares are great but you want to really sure you have the right mare as has been said above major players are only really keen on that if the mare is just the sort they are after she has to be good or at the very least well related.
Showcasing yes would be a sound choice providing your mares are strong enough(page and physically) then why not get the deal on offer and send him two.I assume you know the Harpers well enough.
Is either of these the one in-foal to Champs Elysees?
and I think you are being a typical British breeder who looks at their sire choices very much from a hesitant point of view just be brave trust your own judgement its generally the best.

 
I'm quite surprised that you are a Verglas man. Mind you at one point I did think that you might have had a pretty major history with him (via Slick) but surely even you aren't that important! (and if you are, don't waste your time talking to me ) Would you ever want to use him enough to ship your best mare foaling her 1st foal?

No not really and I know when someone is setting a trap as soon as I saw his name on the list I knew why he was there![;)]One thing that you need to remember I never forget this,is that NO ONE is too important to speak to anybody at all,we are all breeders all horse traders so we all like to chat to people with the same interests.You can rest assured plenty of major players in this industry can be PRIMA DONNAS but this one is always happy to talk to you on this forum,you seem to assume that if I really am that 'important'I would not be at all interested in your views........assumption can be a dangerous thing Pot M![;)]Happy
Report potentialmillionaire January 11, 2011 7:46 PM GMT
As I said Ripvan, I am happy right now with my Acclamation and would definitely consider using him again. The negative scenario I mentioned is a consideration but if I had an extensive portfolio of mares (and a subsequently larger spread to my risk) like yours, I too would be there in a flash.

I agree with your comments on foal shares and as you say, the two parties are often coming from different directions. I didn't discuss any mares or actual stallions, it was just made clear no arrangements were likely to be considered with yours truly. I accept that because I have no great 'brand loyalty' and I'm not a natural 'back scratcher'. At times like this I pay the price.

I've given Green Desert some thought previously, but add his fertility to his massively declining results and age he's a non starter for me.

The mare that visited Champs Elysees Prima is not the mare in question. She is not really fitted yet either but Showcasing is an option. But if your Barbados chinwags are correct and who knows which way he'll go, it's still something to worry about - 2 noms - with so few mares.

Ultimately I do trust my judgement - but like you say lots of wavering first - and sometimes it's even been right! Since I've been wittering on, on here, I am trying to hold onto my own principals though as I worry that I can be too easily influenced and none of us should try to re-invent our wheelsHappy

I am just off to do some Verglas research as this mares family has a fantastic record with Highest Honor - albeit a bit distant - so no, it wasn't a plant. And you've said plenty in time that doesn't tally with that particular theory so I remain perplexed Confused Laugh
Report Prima Donna January 12, 2011 2:35 AM GMT
Then you will have to continue to remain perplexed,as I have already said far too much and a couple of times come very close to blowing our cover.So perhaps silence is the best option.Good luck with your choices I hope you have success with them.
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