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jonnyrotten
17 Oct 10 15:22
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Date Joined: 30 Nov 08
| Topic/replies: 541 | Blogger: jonnyrotten's blog
not many covering prep fee never mind cost, time for a big drop in stallion fee's in all but the top tier? what do you all think
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Report Prima Donna October 17, 2010 6:25 PM BST
I think they will all have too get real when stallion managers set 2011 fee's,they all need to come down including the sires at Cheveley Park did you hear Chris Richardson's rather pompous comment that "we don't want a knee-jerk reaction its a global decision that's needed".
I put my head round the door on Friday it looked grim,Tatt's have made a mistake in running book 3 right on from books 1and 2 as trainers and agents who have bought yearlings need time to see if they can sell their new stock before then getting stuck in to book 3,I feel very sorry for vendors who have once again made a loss through a stupid sales company who seemingly get it wrong year in year out.Edmond Mahony's change of heart about selling in sterling rather than guineas perhaps comes from feedback from some of the bigger vendors that they would be keener to go to Goffs/DBS and maybe a level playing field over commission would not be in Tatt's favour!
Report barter October 17, 2010 8:00 PM BST
As one of the losers, I am still licking my wounds. Sold two, brought two home (no bid).  If you had a filly to sell yesterday you knew your fate before you walked up to the ring. The price of the one filly I did sell covered the cost of the transport down and the entry fee. I have been at this game for 30 years and have had some six figure sales in the past. But those days are over  and I can't see them coming back. I (and my bank manager) have had enough. I will cover only one mare (my golden goose) next year. The oldies will have an honourable retirement, however low stud fees fall in 2011.

There have been many inane comments on the market collapse in recent days. One of the best, in the Racing Post (I forget the columnist), suggested that all would be solved if Tattersalls restricted the entries so that buyers weren't faced with so many horses. Oh yes? And exactly what are breeders supposed to do with
the yearlings who don't get into the sales? At least at present, Tatts give us a chance to unload all our stock, even at giveaway prices. To that extent I think they deserve credit.

Nobody is 'to blame' for the current situation. Businesses of all kinds go through tough times and if they can't adapt, they fold.  Stallion owners will undoubtedly feel the pinch too next year, and eventually market forces may sort matters out. I don't think I'll live long enough to see it though, especially considering the diminishing attractiveness of our end product: a horse destined to  race for ever-decreasing prize money at ever- increasing training fees.
Report Black Sam Bellamy October 17, 2010 8:34 PM BST
It just goes to show who reliant the industry is on Darley and associates. Very few sales down to Rabbah Bloodstock I noticed. Darley must surely be in a position where they don't need to buy that many yearlings given the size of their broodmare band. It all comes back to prize money to me. The Arabs might not be too concerned, but Book 2 and 3 players are. There's a certain sense of irony that I should be writing this on Betfair's forum; but the un-levy'd layers on here need to start contributing to prize money via the levy like other betting establishments. Otherwise it's curtains, unless racing can find the money from within to buy the Tote, so the industry can fund itself.
Report Equimine.co.uk October 18, 2010 10:22 AM BST
I must admit that some of the numbers, allied to what appears to be both commercial and financial naivety, I hear or read linked to bloodstock and breeding horrify me.

Whilst I operate a business in the industry, my background is financial through venture capital and bigger ticket leasing. If some of the business approaches I see were put to me for venture capital investment, they would not even make first base. Generally, these are from trainers and stallion focused stud operations. They appear to think they can, and should, quote whatever fees or charges they require and clients will, and should, just pay them after a nominal discount if requested. The remark made by Chris Richardson I had to check three times, I thought I was hallucinating. It was arrogant and commercially ridiculous.

The stallion fees are to a certain extent because stallion owners, in my commercial opinion, do not know how to value a stallion. The figure for Makfi defies belief at circa £8 million. Even at the outlandish fee of £25K, this provides a return of under 10%, using any sensible discounted cash flow analysis, to the purchasers to cover profit and all operating costs related to the business infrastructure.

Suffice to say in the six years of owning the Statistical and Financial services operation in the racing industry, whilst selling our other services; we have not made a single venture capital investment. The basic principles of supply and demand appear to be totally ignored. The current climate offers small/medium broodmare owners, service based general studs and average racehorse owners the opportunity to exert their position in the chain. They are the ones who hold the influence overall.

Anyway, that is my rant for the day over.Grin
Report potentialmillionaire October 18, 2010 9:16 PM BST
I think your all being very unfair to poor Chris Richardson.

After all, only 30 Kyllachy yearlings made less than his stud fee this year. Why on earth should they drop his fee when that is the same stat as last year, when they resolutely didn't see fit to do so?
Report potentialmillionaire October 18, 2010 9:17 PM BST
[;)]
Report Prima Donna October 18, 2010 9:41 PM BST
Pivotal's median of only approx 92k just underlines how over-inflated his price is. Surely 40k is plenty enough for him. I feel his sale ring glory days are on the way out as other 'neutral' sires such as OD,IS and Dansili storm the sires lists and actually get something other than soft ground older fillies Grin
Is that you finished for the year now Pot'M or do you go into battle once more with the foals?!
Report jonnyrotten October 18, 2010 9:47 PM BST
why did cape cross do so badly in the ring this year? will his fee go down accordingly?
Report potentialmillionaire October 18, 2010 10:22 PM BST
Sadly I have to have another go in December Prima.

Nothing to write home about, the wrongest stallion at stud for one (nice colt though) but I'm hoping a slightly stronger chance than the yearlings.

Fee publication time is awaited with as much interest as I can remember right now jonnyrotten.
I think Cape Cross will take a bit of a hit, but probably not much as he is very consistent on the track.
Report Prima Donna October 19, 2010 10:29 AM BST
Good luck Pot M,people seem to think prices will be very low mares as well,we will have to see.I hope to buy a foal something That will go to DBS next year hope I'm lucky.
Did you see the prices for the National Stud's sires next year?ShockedBahamian Bounty at 10k!better off at 6k Pastoral Pursuits 7k he has done well to a degree but imo he should stay the same esp' as its going,no price for My Boy Charlie yet..........surprise surprise don't think he is going to be that popular,looks like stallion fees are once again going to be slightly unrealistic,Cockney Rebel 4.5k some have gone to good hotels he could be worth a punt but I'm sure you will be able to get him for less.
Cape Cross is slipping back now as a commercial stallion he's been around for ages with few top horses to command his fee.
Report potentialmillionaire October 19, 2010 1:41 PM BST
Thanks for that Prima. 34 Bahamian Bounty yearlings have just walked round the ring for £10k or less.

As you know I would welcome fees to remain buoyant IF the stallion men are going to reduce the book sizes to give their product some exclusivity.

If they are to retain the status quo in this matter (presumably) then can anyone see any reason why I shouldn't wander round and nuke the lot of them?

Are they completeley barking?
Report Prima Donna October 19, 2010 4:23 PM BST
YES!I think they are,please do Pot M nuke them most stallion studs are easy to find they all live in dream land.......go on press the god damn red button.It seems to me most of them operate on a 'bury their heads in the sand' policy,the markets are completely irrelevant to them.
Report potentialmillionaire October 20, 2010 7:23 PM BST
I'm worried about pursuing the w**kers to dream land Prima, in case I get overtaken by whatever ails them there!

Latest quote - O'Rourke, UK National Stud. Most of the problems seem to be the 20K + stallion, ( & he would say that wouldn't he, as they never show any signs of having one) and 'the yearling average our horses have all come in at double their fee or more' !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Well HELLO?, they all stand at well less than 10K so therefore the average yearling ALL lose money.

Priceless.
Report Prima Donna October 20, 2010 7:31 PM BST
I noticed that comment Pot'M and my reaction (and Slick's),was much the same as yours. Do you think the stallion studs are now going to start playing the game of 'pass the hot potato'? Average quote being " Well yes we know there is a big issue but it doesn't actually include our sires, they are just not the profile of those horses that lose money. It really is someone elses fault."
Report potentialmillionaire October 20, 2010 7:47 PM BST
Well John Osborne ( and from him, I am disappointed ) is dead in line with your description Prima. And given how many Invincible Spirit yearlings that Rabbah and co. will offload - he is being a little naive to think there won't be over supply. Go there for 60k at your peril as 63 of his yearlings made less than this fee during this current sales season - and incidentally they were off an 85k fee.

But ofcourse there is a bigger picture John. If only Tatts and Goffs would change the colour of their catalogue covers, then I'm sure that would help the market imeasurably too . . . .
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