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workrider
26 Sep 10 21:33
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Date Joined: 29 Jun 02
| Topic/replies: 31,727 | Blogger: workrider's blog
did horses make the right money in most cases , or was the sale a disappointment ? anyone on here buy or sell ?
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Report ugly September 26, 2010 10:40 PM BST
I was there on the Wednesday and generally I thought the quality was only mediocre. However most had little or no reserves and many sales were made. My trainer bought 8 yearlings over the 2 days and rarely paid anywhere near his bid reserve and in most cases about 50%. I think many of the Irish breeders are concentrating on Goffs. I was looking for a yearling that would get 7 to 8 furlongs on soft to heavy to try and win their invitational race next September.
Report workrider September 27, 2010 5:19 PM BST
ugly i have to say its one of those sales were you really could pick up a bargain . i suppose i'd rather take a chance buying one from that sale than most others . plus you just might pluck the overall winner Grin got luck with those you bought.
Report potentialmillionaire September 27, 2010 7:59 PM BST
I've not read much comment on the sale so my opinion may be well and truely wide of the mark (ok, again).

But last years renewal was truely dire so if that reflects on the standard of entrants this year then an improvement in figures was very encouraging - I hope.
Report ugly September 27, 2010 8:30 PM BST
Workrider I will keep you informed and obviously if I get a horse back there in September I probably let everyone know Laugh Cheers
Report Prima Donna September 28, 2010 6:49 AM BST
I thought the whole sale looked grim,for ages now we have heard about 'overproduction' scanning the vast majority of the pedigrees of the catalogue it made poor reading and imo 75% of those mares need culling,harsh maybe but true.
Report potentialmillionaire September 28, 2010 3:00 PM BST
Well, you'll be pleased to hear that at least one of the dams in the fairyhouse catalogue was culled last winter Prima - I sold the individual as a foal and it actually went on and made a few bob for the pinhooker!
I culled 3 out of 5 mares at that time and needless to say one has had a Group winner this year Cry but I sold it as a yearling for tuppence ha'penny and I only need remember that day to make me realise why I did it.
Hopefully plenty of others have done the same, then or since, and we will have a slightly more rosy outlook some time soon.
But I'd be interested to hear comments, as with a quite high clearance rates - disregarding the unsolds - it appears that there are still homes for cheap horses and some buyers only want/are able to play at that end of the market.
Should we be saying, 'sorry guys this game's not for you' as after all production costs are horrendous whatever level your covering?                                                        Or should we say 'you are  welcome to hoover up the unfortunates' as long as the money we make on the sexy ones keeps the show on the road?
I never really know what to make of overproduction because of this.
When I first entered the game you could get a higher % sold for a profit than you can now, that's for sure. People were less fussy.
However the flip side was, a lot fewer mega prices.
Which should it be?
Report workrider September 28, 2010 4:46 PM BST
surely its all about balance potent . culling is necessary  and needs doing straight   away
Report Prima Donna September 29, 2010 8:13 PM BST
It is about balance workrider. But unfortunately in this lower market the place for a cheap horse is getting smaller.Pot M is right about people still being on a limited budget and never being able to play at the higher levels, but IME now that you are getting stock by 'sexier' sires making such pitiful amounts the man with 5k to spend will choose to spend it on a yearling by a flashy sire rather than a cheap worthy one. The very fact that the cheap one is related to nothing but winners (albeit low level) and by a consistent source of winners is pushed aside by the fact that the other is by a new face or a stallion that "stood for lots of money so must be good". The reality that the Dam has produced one winner from 8 foals and a few didn't even make it to the track is ignored and the warnings that it raises for the yearling is missed.

A good example is the guy who was asking in here about spending 20k on a horse to race that he just wanted to win with. Didn't need to be anything special just something him and his mates could enjoy. Despite all the advice on here about avoiding new sires and going for a sire with good winners/runners and a dam that has produced plenty of winners, he goes and buys a yearling by first crop sire Amadeus Wolf. We don't know the female side, but the sire may never get a winner for one reason or another. But he is a 'name' he does stand at INS and he was 10k so perhaps the man feels he has a good deal. Could he have spent 50% money on a son of Piccolo, Bertolini, et al and increased his chance of a winner? Probably. But it backs up my theory about the marketplace for cheap horses in today's markets, small buyers feel they have had a bargain if they get a horse they "never thought we'd be able to afford". It is the breeders that feel the pinch. The cheap and worthies are the losers (along with the small time, 5k buyer in the long term)
Report potentialmillionaire September 29, 2010 8:48 PM BST
Smashing post Prima.

And perhaps we should feel happy for the man that does at least get 5k back for his crooked Shamardal (say) Laugh
Report bucko68 September 29, 2010 10:31 PM BST
In reply to Primas post, the trainer had the final say in picking the horse by Amadeus Wolf, I personally would have liked to go the proven sire route,but it just didnt happen on the day,I can read the pedigree as can any Jo Soap, but would not be confident to judge a horses conformation,hence always have to have a second opinion,now imo if guys like me and my trainer didnt take a chance on first season sires, where would that leave the Industry ? (By the way The yearlings dam has produced winners,)I am only too aware that the yearling might never win, or even race for that matter,but that is the chance we all take,Saddlers Wells was once a first season sire as was Strong Gale,what if all the breeders had said no to those two sires.


Hears a good example,i have been involved in horses since the late 90s,and in that time have had four NH horses,3 average ones,all NH bred,bought at the sales/Tatt/Goffs,after we sold the third one,"a wind sucker" who broke down,and who by the way had got through the vets at the Goffs Landrover sale,imo it was a nod and a wink as he was sold by a very high profile stud,who appeared not to know anything about this vice ,MischiefAnyhow our next horse was bought off the flat from the UK after winning a mediocre handicap,shortly afterwards i was speaking to a retired Curragh trainer and showed him the pedigree, he wasnt very positive when i told him we planned to go Hurdling, said he could not see sire getting jump winners,anwhow 7 wins to date,and was top rated Juvenile hurdler for a while,Point is some first season sires have to be sucessful,and if it were not for the buyers of these,how would the breeding industry survive ? answer is it couldnt,we bought what we could afford,is that not better than not buying at all.
Regards Buck.
Report Prima Donna September 29, 2010 10:44 PM BST
bucko68 I think you are missing my point,the point was NOT against FSS,but where cheap horse fit into the market place.
Report bucko68 September 29, 2010 11:11 PM BST
OK Prima point taken,Its a bit like doing the lotto at the end of the day,just look at the first two home in the 2 year old Tatts auction race at Fairyhouse two weeks ago,bargain buys, €2000 and €2500, god bless the bargain hunters,
Report potentialmillionaire September 30, 2010 5:13 PM BST
And to cloud the issue further bucko, the best 3 horses I have bred so far are by 1st season sires!

The fact is that your trainer got carried along by the 1st season sire bug, despite the fact that most sires turn out to be useless. It's as natural as taking a massive hit on a new car as someone drives it out of the showroom or that new handbag you bought for your wife for a fortune, that she then grew tired of.

Ist season sire mania shows no sign of abating, so the new Sadlers will get his chance and as you seem like a nice chap, I'm sure it will be Amadeus Wolf! Enjoy the ride Grin
Report Prima Donna September 30, 2010 6:32 PM BST
I think you are missing my point, and perhaps using Bucko as an example wasn't the correct way to get it across. I don't mean that Bucko has done the wrong thing at all and I hope his horse is successful for him. However I was using that as an illustration that although getting a winner was the most important thing Bucko or his trainer have moved away from a 'safer' option by going for a known winner producing sire and prolific winner producing dam. They have been taken with the potential Amadeus Wolf offers. This is what I am trying to get at, the fact that a lowish grade winner producing dam mated to a cheap and cheerful winner producing sire will generally lose out to the higher profile ie more expensive sire. This is where the market for cheap horses has gone. In 'the good ole days' the expensive horses made their money and the bargain hunters were only really able to buy at that cheap and cheerful level. There was always a place for the unspectacular page that would nonetheless come out each week and give a good chance of a win. The way the market has collapsed has made the expensively conceived stock fall into the bargain price range. These are horses that would have been considered out of reach for that buyer before and he will take his chance at getting into a 'better' level of horse. This does not translate into success on the track of course and can be disheartening. I sadly think that the days of the cheap winner producers with little class on the page are gone for the time being.

I am very much in the first season sire camp and they probably make up about 70% of our nominations each season. In that vein, what do we think of Starspangledbanner?
Report potentialmillionaire September 30, 2010 8:23 PM BST
Prima, is it me that you refer to?

Au contraire, your point higher up the page I said was smashing! I agree with you on this and your point I thought very well put and pertinent.

Reading back my small point, it was perhaps a little bit patronising, but I just wanted to get across the 'it's human nature' bit of being carried away with the new. I might think we should all be as rational as possible, but I'm in no position to judge those of us who aren't!

In reply to your point about the cheapy, it is a worry though that you may be producing for the 10k little syndicate market with your Galileo that came out a bit crooked! (ok an extreme example). It certainly holds me back from being as brave as I would like because I could simply go under with a failure on a stud fee at a £25k+ level.

Still where would we be if it wasn't one conundrum after anotherLaugh
Report potentialmillionaire September 30, 2010 8:30 PM BST
Blast I forgot the SSB bit.

I've got your confirmation assessment of him at the July Cup filed amongst the little grey cells and I have a smallish all quality barrener who I'm guessing might suit?

So yes I like (although in a 1st season capacity mainly) but I want a good 1st season 'hit' in 2011 so I am awaiting for the general confirmation of what we are guessing will be hot off the blocks to try and fit a few to purpose!
Report Prima Donna September 30, 2010 8:41 PM BST
Pot M, no it wasn't directed at you, it wasn't really directed at anyone. From your response to my intial post I could see you understood where I was coming from. Using an example of another Forumite was a mistake in hindsight. It can then all feel a little too personal. Bucko seemed to miss my point and was then running with a different idea to that I had intended. I was just trying to clarify that was all.

It is hard to second guess this market certainly! In the past there were always certain types that would sell, looking at some recent results there doesn't seem  much rhyme nor reason to them. I suppose that the conundrums keep the old grey matter in shape, however the financial risk cannot do the heart much good come sales time Grin
Report Posh Paddy September 30, 2010 8:58 PM BST
I was going to say I was encouraged by the sale simply as a Baltic King colt sold for E16K from a mare who has a simlar profile to my own (getting on a bit and has produced winners).

Now having read this I'm feeling worried that my poor lad will get completely overlooked next year and he'll go for a pitense.
Report potentialmillionaire September 30, 2010 9:13 PM BST
Don't despair PP. a) If he's a looker, you are always in with a shout.

                  b) I often talk bxllxcks!
Report bucko68 September 30, 2010 11:45 PM BST
PotM and Prima im delighted that i was mentioned in the blog, "freedom of speech" you cant beat it, yer  contributions are always worth reading,as ye seem to really study all angles of the game, watch out a new classic winner is on the way for 2011,[:)]
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