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09 Aug 10 18:15
Date Joined: 17 Mar 10
| Topic/replies: 2,672 | Blogger: potentialmillionaire's blog
Will need discussion, so I thought I'd head up a box so we all know where to look.Grin
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Report Prima Donna August 9, 2010 6:40 PM BST
What do you think of him Pot M,in terms of 1, commercialism,2,Of his chances of success at Highclere,3,The ability to get 2y'olds,4,the danger of appealing to perhaps only one trainer in Richard Hannon and of course his 'agent' Peter Doyle?
I am surprised he is going to Highclere with John Warren are you?Always thought he would end up with us here in Ireland.
Report potentialmillionaire August 9, 2010 9:00 PM BST
I am a little surprised that Highclere has ended up as home. I like you wondered if they would want to stand stallions any more. Obviously, J W will have been at B&Q this afternoon choosing paint colours for those stable doors - I believe he is currently rubbing down with sand paper and filling the gaps in the woodwork. . .
On the subject of commercial, well you and I know as well as anyone, 1st foals skip out the doors at the Breeding stock sales and that's when we'll truly find the answer to that one. I would use him. I've said elsewhere that I think he is pretty faithful to his sire and I think that the Green Desert tribe are a fairly reliable bunch right now. The dam side is plebian but not dire and I wouldn't be totally scared of playing the 1st season game with him - long term mind, the question marks are obvious.
I defer to no-one in my dislike of J.W. but just as G. Dubya Bush kept the Oilmen and Gun Lobby happy so does John Warren have a certain ability to push some of the right buttons. He seems to be able to over support his connected stallions at the sales without alienating his clients (I sold him a 2nd season Batshoof for decent money) and I thought that in the R.P. article when he compared Paco to other ill bred horses who are good stallions without actually mentioning the fact was typically good P.R. He is respected if not liked and to be honest I would trust him to do a better more subtle marketing job than most. I think Highclere might be a plus I'm afraid to admit.
2yo's. Not perhaps a natural fit but I think if he is a capable sire then his tough wirey physique will probably guarantee they can be used early.
Appeal? If they are stamped and athletic then everyone will dive in - as ever.
I think that Warren will have applied pressure ( Dickie, you still want to train for Highclere, Royal Ascot and Her Maj. don't you?) to get the horse and he has probably outbid a good few in Ireland too, and like you that's where I thought he'd end up.
I think, stallion prospects still being so scarce, that the price paid will mean a £10g or above fee.

Right, there's your starter for ten out there, and yes I really do need to get a life. . .Sad
Report neill d August 9, 2010 9:04 PM BST
10 really, my opinion is uneducated but I thought he'd stand for less than that, Green Desert must be really in vogue
Report Black Sam Bellamy August 9, 2010 9:18 PM BST
Price might depend on whether he manages to top Goldikova between now and the end of the season
Report potentialmillionaire August 9, 2010 9:18 PM BST
Idon't think you'll be alone there Neill d. I just think the scrum for a stallion prospect will give them no choice and Warren considers himself too important to dabble at less. Also, Roxburgh will use 5, Devonshire ditto, Queenie, Newsells, Ogden etc.etc. - They'll probably only need to market 3 actual nominations!
Report Prima Donna August 9, 2010 9:49 PM BST
I was thinking the other day that he will be about 8k,yes he is top class but his pedigree as we know is not,but as Black Sam points out and I agree with him IF he beats Goldikova,I could see him comfortably sitting at 10k even 12k but that is the absolute most.
With the likes of HRH and Roxy and co using him are they the sort who will sell them?yes I know they do but a lot of that brigade are OB types is that going to help him as he may not have his best ones in the sale ring.
Pot Ms point about JW pushing buttons is dead right,but he is far to important to 'pop'down to the builders merchant for paint and the like,he gets his flunky the same one who holds his catalogue at the sales that one who goes to your boxes at the sales asking "can you get lot No's A B C D ready for MR Warren"which we all reply with "yes of course,when we'd all love to say go and tell him to **** off"Laugh"may I suggest where you can shove your little walking stick John"Shocked
Report potentialmillionaire August 9, 2010 10:09 PM BST
And when someone, anyone with a sniff of a title appears around the corner and the rat scuttles up his proverbial drainpipe dropping us, the great unwashed and untitled, like a stone we all tug our forelocks and put the horse away when all we want to do is keep the horse out and lock the rat in the stable. . .
Report Prima Donna August 9, 2010 10:41 PM BST
I remember using that great Side Hill sire Dr Fong,on his first season, one morning at Tatt's JW came running over to me to remind me I had NOT paid the grooms fee"its very important for them"he went on,my reply was "Christ John have you really run all this way just to tell me that,if its SO important that they need it then its simple pay them more"he did not like it at all,but he would not dare say anymore,I did pay the grooms fee about a month later,sold the Dr Fong very well indeed as a yearling too,but have never used any of theirs since but with P,Boy that may change.
Report neill d August 9, 2010 10:42 PM BST
I can see your logic now Laugh, hope he makes it, his half sister Paco Belle isn't much good though
Report RipVanWinkle August 10, 2010 1:14 AM BST
I think this horse would have got a better chance in Ireland. The mares that Warren will attract will not help Paco Boy at all. I'm not sure would i be that interested in him now.

When you look at Paco Boy standing for say £10000 and Mastercraftsman for €20000 who holds more appeal? I asked this to someone last week and the reply was not what i was expecting. I said Mastercraftsman because he was a champion two year old and then very good at 3, i saw him at Coolmore in May and he's not the best looking but he is ahead of Paco Boy for me.
Report August 10, 2010 7:01 AM BST
I haven't seen it mentioned anywhere, how much are Highclere paying for him, or are they just standing him?
Report Prima Donna August 10, 2010 10:14 AM BST
The piece was in yesterdays Racing Post,reading it it gave me the impression they had bought him.How much for I've no idea,as I said above thought he would come over here but if he did stay in England then I did think he may go to the National Stud in NMKT a surprise to me and a lot of others I'm sure standing with John Warren,perhaps Harbinger will also retire there as well.
Report yer ma August 10, 2010 12:18 PM BST
For my 2pence I like the horse but you could certainly argue he's not very top drawer (possibly not sufficiently so to overcome the moderate pedigree).  As for his Highclere - they'll charge too much and it will be very hit or miss as to whether you get the benefit of JW bloodstock, Highclere syndication or Doyle buying up to first decent 20 sold.  Cant see those you name as mare owners having more than 1 each.  Even they started avoiding Dr Fong after a while and all are 'laboured' with Motivator shares for there lesser stock.  At 10k I'd swerve, Canford Cliffs at 15k sounds better to me.
Report Prima Donna August 10, 2010 12:59 PM BST
Good points yer ma,Paco Boy may have the sway with him at the moment he is one tough horse we all know,but I tend to agree that CC will be better value,but for me with CC's page 15k could be a touch top heavy,better at say 10/12k he would be one for over here(Ireland) plenty of people are looking forward to his retirement us included.
Report potentialmillionaire August 10, 2010 8:03 PM BST
I'd be way more keen on having Desert Style behind me over Tagula. . .
Haven't seen C.C. but I assume he is nice. However I think once you hit top class every stallion prospect is pretty equal really and it's best to start differentiating with the help of confirmation and pedigree. Pivotal, Danehill Dancer, Dansili etc etc etc were terrific horses but not superstars and a consistent level of top form is what I like to see in a stallion prospect.
However I appreciate the market can be easily led by some 'fleeting' brilliance and look where that fashion slavery so often gets them!
Naomi and her 'bag of pebbles' springs to mind !!!
Report Prima Donna August 11, 2010 1:30 PM BST
potentialmillionaire     10 Aug 10 20:03 
I'd be way more keen on having Desert Style behind me over Tagula. .

That is a good point,but in a way Desert Style has always been viewed as a disappointing sire,he has and is capable of getting high class runners,Paco Boy is about his best.And he does have the help of  Green Desert who is regarded by some as a very good sire of sires,I myself do like Paco Boy and may yet use him one of the mares here would be a sound choice as she has a very similar dam line to him and works well with Green Desert.Tagula is pretty much over the hill now but whilst he has got nothing of the class of Canford Cliffs before he has always been a good source of early speedy sorts,I think when it comes to the sale ring people won't forget that,he imo would have to edge over Paco that way round,Canford offers the same but better chance than Tagula of getting high class 2y'olds none of us will forget his great Coventry win,but there is no two ways about it neither one of those two have a fantastic page behind them,and old saying 'class will out in the end' comes to my mind in assessing the prospects of these two potential stallions,it will in the end come down to the quality of their mares as I doubt either can really up grade their stock.I would more than likely use both as they are two great horses,my heart says Paco Boy as I really do like him my head says Canford Cliffs,I reckon my return would be greater with him.
Report potentialmillionaire August 11, 2010 5:25 PM BST
Yer Ma, if a 10g stallion gets the 1st 20 yearlings 'well' sold then that's a result isn't it. The layer of profitable stock by any stallion just gets thinner and thinner these days. I think that the JW desciples (and yes he is the 2nd coming, don't argue now) will all use the horse to the tune of 2 or 3 noms without doubt and I suspect there may be a slightly more widespread syndication too.
I think that Canford Cliffs if he continues in this current vein is going to finish with an incredibly sexy vibe about him and I think he will be popular at the sales to start with for sure. However I do think that someone somewhere is going to have to pay dearly to secure him because of precisely this fact. This I reckon could result in a fee beyond the 15 mark I'm afraid.
Now there will be nothing remotely 'shiny' about either Paco or Canford if their bloodlines get in the way and they cannot stamp their stock. A very real possibility I fear. So at the moment, Paco, typical of his sire-line, would be a better shot to stamp his type perhaps in my humbles, and with a significantly cheaper fee may have more 'safety' appeal to me.
And then ofcourse where will Canford end up?
It does amuse me that we'll debate so feverishly when we don't know their full race records, time of retirement, venue of such, fee, syndicate details etc etc. Laugh
Long may it continue, mind!
Report potentialmillionaire August 11, 2010 5:53 PM BST
Oh, and fancy having Zoffany to your bow and then remembering the 1/2 brother you've got to sell this year is by Doc Fong - now that's bitter sweet!!!
(Apol. if it's you Prima Blush)
Report Prima Donna August 11, 2010 6:30 PM BST
Oh, and fancy having Zoffany to your bow and then remembering the 1/2 brother you've got to sell this year is by Doc Fong - now that's bitter sweet!!!
(Apol. if it's you Prima )

Pot M' do you really think I would hvave use Dr Fong two years ago?! Shocked We do aim to be commercial breeders!
If I owned Tyranny then she would be going to Danehill Dancer next year. Of course she would have a foal this year by Oasis Dream.
Report Prima Donna November 11, 2010 10:58 AM GMT
Eight and a half grand for him then,personally I'd say with all things taken into account he'd be better at 7.5k but you could say I'm splitting hairs.I can't really make my mind up with he really going to be commercial?
Report vinnie_roe November 11, 2010 6:08 PM GMT
So they are putting a value of around 3.5m on his head.
Report potentialmillionaire November 11, 2010 9:50 PM GMT
I would have thought that stud fee equates to a value of about 1.5 ?

I think a lot of folks are in the same boat of perplexion as you (and me) Prima. I think the fee is a good indication of that too. For a horse of his class, soundness and turn of foot it's a great fee.

He could be great value at that. A horse of his profile will have no problem commercially IF the foals can carry a commercial stamp. I think for me his walk is the worry, my memory of it is not favourable. A lightweight mare would not be a great idea too perhaps.
Report Prima Donna November 11, 2010 10:00 PM GMT
I know Pot M,I have a mare that would sit real well with him but trouble is she is one of those leaner types she mind does have a great walk but she is by a stamina sire from a similar line to P.Boy,I think  his price is a bit high if I end up with a rat then he would look VERY expensive,like you say you'd need a great walking strong mare and preferably from a BLK type page.
Report yer ma November 11, 2010 10:08 PM GMT
In a world of Makfi at 25k, Paco Boy at 8.5k is pretty decent. I thought it'd be more.  Still too risky for me...on another thread Virtual is being mocked and he's the previous lockinge winner and has a better page.  I've said it before I dont think the mile division has been strong for a while and Goldikova aside they end up beating each other in particular circumstances.
Report Prima Donna November 11, 2010 10:17 PM GMT
Oh yes Virtual that great sire who was only a handicapper who won his GR1 by a **** papers width plus he is a plain  big colt with terrible hocks a poor leg and then add his 3/4 bro has done S F A.............yes he is commercial to some maybeShocked
Report neill d November 12, 2010 11:27 AM GMT
Paco Boy looks like a rat and isn't particuarly precocious. I think he took the Hannons by surprise. If you saw him move down to post you'd probably never back him. I'm sceptical of his prospects.
Report potentialmillionaire March 8, 2011 8:14 PM GMT
I've just been on the Highclere website to see the horse 'apparently' has 130 mares booked with some pretty nicely credentialled among them.

In a way it backs up my way of thinking this year that the credentials of the 1st season sires are a pretty limited when the no page, no walk, P.B. and Equiano are all bar full. Ofcourse it also confirms my inabillty to get with the programme and book anything!

I find it tough to book when choices are so weak - even whilst realising that everyone else is in the same boat.

Anyone got any Paco news? Anyone seen him recently/using him/knowledged in his fertility?
Report Prima Donna March 8, 2011 9:05 PM GMT
Are you close enough to walk her in from your place?Are you thinking of him for your tricky mare who foaled the other week?I understand you not wanting to travel too far with her.Did you get the begging letter from Overbury re,Bertolini and wonder sire Proclamation our daughter had one apparently it was almost 'name your price' but please please ring us.
Paco Boy imo of the two mentioned above would be my choice he does have the Hannon factor which may help you come sales time.
Report RipVanWinkle March 8, 2011 9:16 PM GMT
Theres a good 100 of those mares that are going there thinking of the hannon factor, i wouldnt send a mare to him on that. Theres not many other reasons to use him either except first season sire appeal. I'm very surprised that he has seemed to attract a very nice bunch of mares, does he really hold that much appeal?
Report potentialmillionaire March 8, 2011 9:50 PM GMT
Nice to hear from you Ripvan - are you working too hard right now? It's that time is it not Laugh

I think that when you have perhaps the biggest commercial purchaser perhaps positively discriminating towards a sire that has to be a plus whichever way you look at it. As said before, John Warren is a definite plus too. He is good at PR and the mares attracted reflect that and I would trust him to get things wound up at sales time too. Couple that with a very popular profile and you have plenty of reasons to like his prospects in theory

The problem is him as an individual and his potential to stamp anything you'd want!

I do walk in Prima, and I drive past Highclere on the way to Whitsbury so it would seem like a doddle! He wouldn't suit the tricky mare so I was wondering whether to swap her to Showcasing and take that mare who is not as good but easier to mate, to something else. It will mean that I am swapping grades for these two but I guess that a good match is more important than pricing considerations.

I've not had the 'high powered publicity' [;)] from Overbury, still time perhaps but whilst we are on the subject, I felt that the Mastercraftsman email vindicated our reasons to be careful of him!
Report RipVanWinkle March 8, 2011 10:26 PM GMT
That email may not have enticed you potm but i have to admit that other foals i have seen have been of a good standard, they do seem to be leggy though and there heads could be a small bit better.

Its been a busy season so far from foaling our own mares to helping others there isnt much time left in the day. Do you only have one mare booked to a stallion so far? I read you have a foal, is it by Acclamtion by any chance have one going to him wondering what yours might be like thought i read you used him last year.
Report potentialmillionaire March 9, 2011 11:40 AM GMT
Ripvan, are you able to report on any other 1st season foals as you seem to get to see a few?

I've got 2 mares booked and one to do. It seems a bit pathetic really given the numbers you guys are dealing with and particularly given how mouthy I am on here! I'd like a few more but circumstances aren't right for that just now.

My mare in foal to Acclamation is due at the end of this month and she is enormous so I'm hangin in for a strapping colt. ( what says a weedy filly and 58 gallons of fluid Cry

Have you delivered anything particularly pleasing yet?
Report Prima Donna March 9, 2011 7:53 PM GMT
I felt that the Mastercraftsman email vindicated our reasons to be careful of him!

Yeah your damn right there Pot M,I've seen only a couple by him in the flesh and
I'd have to say one was nice-ish and one was like Rip Van has said a slightly plain headed beast who was leggy as was the more quality one but looking at those it made us think we had made the right decision last year in NOT using him,I wonder how many will get burnt fingers later this year when they offer foals after using the Master as if they are all like the ones we have all seen then they will need to be brave indeed after paying last years fee.
Report RipVanWinkle March 9, 2011 8:18 PM GMT
I didnt use him last year but we bought a mare in foal to him and i was very happy with the cover she had as she was small and i had seen some of her previous off-spring and none of them where leggy. As for fingers been burnt PD that happens with every stallion year in year out but some people make a profit on every stallion hopefully that will be us this year. Havent seen many other 1st season sires foals Bushranger nice foal well built. I saw a Yeats foal was a giant of a thing but was strong. I think if you want news on Sea The Stars foals ask PD

Potm we've had some nice arrivals so far and still have a good few to go, we've actually got good deals this year on nearly every stallion, the quality of our mares has improved since last year but we will still only have the same number of mares to be covered due to us selling a number of mares last year that where not up to a commercial standard. Have to say though as you've mentioned it is very hard to find the correct stallion for mares this year especially picking a stallion for an older mare as the first season sires are a peculiar bunch.
Report Prima Donna March 9, 2011 9:10 PM GMT
think if you want news on Sea The Stars foals ask PD

looked at him then![;)]
Report potentialmillionaire March 9, 2011 10:14 PM GMT
Phew, I'm glad it's not just me Ripvan. I suppose we are all slightly stymied by the market being pickier than ever and not having Prima Donna's gung ho confidence!

I think it's served him well over the years mind [;)]. I believe he's been actively involved in a video shoot recently too - equine, not the other type, (now that would be a niche market Laugh).
Report Prima Donna March 9, 2011 10:23 PM GMT
It's not a gung ho attitude Pot'M, it's called having the courage of your convictions. Or put another way, having the balls (and you'll never see them on any video I assure you Laugh)

BTW I am not allowed to be 'active' with the horses, I see myself more in the directors chair!
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