Sires in Form July

sage,wat a month for medicean!?

What do people think about Exceed and Excel - long term proposition?

Exceed and Excel and Dubawi are doing really well with just 3 and 2 crops respectively.

imagele. Good question!

They have a reputation for being hot?

They don't look better than L. / Gp 3 level?

They do run though.

If the trainers like seeing them in the mornings then he'll have a good innings, if they aren't easy to have around then they perhaps aren't quite good enough to get them to try.

He just doesn't seem to have quite hit the big time with a really top quality horse but he seems to have a good win to run ratio (perception only - I haven't looked at his figures!)

Dubawi is the really exciting prospect. He could get 80+ wins in UK alone from just 2 crops and he has several others winning in Ireland and France.

As of the end of 2009, from a statistical perspective Exceed & Excel is doing pretty well.

On my figures he had 71 two year old wins, at an average rating of 74. This is 20% above average overall. He had a 4.9% probability of producing a 100+ rated two year old.

He had 39 three year old wins, averaging 76.5, with a 10.75 % probability of producing a 100+ rated three year old. Again spot on 20% above average overall .

I think the point about quality is extremely valid, his highest rated is 109.

Purely from a statistical/numbers perspective I can see E&E being much like Acclamation, or even his sire Royal Applause.

Dubawi produced 34 two year old wins from his first crop, averaging just over 75.

He had a 6% probability of producing a 100+ two year old. However, his highest rated  was 112. His crop was 21% above average.

As I think sageform knows my database covers GB & Ireland plus the major Pattern/Stakes races worldwide.

Thanks for that. I have just checked Exceed as I do periodically and I was one short so after his win today he is now on 58. As you say he has nothing above listed class at the moment but a lot between 80 and 100.

Sea Lord was number 71 for Cape Cross today after Caltrava Cape was touched off by Aktia by Danehill Dancer who moved up to 66 with Resurge as well. Kyllachy 64 and Exceed and Excel 63. Pivotal continues to close on 56. The other notable improvement is from Footstepsinthesand now up to 31 including 6 in August, respectable for a second season.

Iffraaj had another winner tonight for David Marane its his forst horse from Sheikh Mo so it's looking good for him. Davids a top man

My interest in Exceed and Excel put me on to Electric Wave yesterday and dug me out of a hole at Newbury after backing the first 2 favourites. E&E now on 65 and clear third in my table. Ifraaj and Holy Roman Emperor clear top of the first season sires.

Thanks for those Flat sire stats, deighted to hear about Medicean,have a leg of a gelding by him,6yo,has won hurdles chases and on the level for us,and has got 2.5miles on his last win,some time with him,and his not finished.

I have noticed a few Mediceans running over hurdles lately. Good luck with yours.

All of the top 10 sires still getting good winners but Oasis Dream takes the prize this week with Waiters Dream,The Fonz, Approve and Midday all winning at York plus a close second by Pabusar and a minor win last evening at Folkstone from Aleqa. Now on 68, joint second with Danehill Dancer, behind Cape Cross on 75. Medicean took another listed with Brushing and had another at York with Conciliatory so now on 65. At the top meetings, the cream rises to the top. Only Kyllachy, now on 66, seems to be quiet at York but he has some runners in the last today.

Kyllachy finally got on the scoreboard at York and with a Group 1 winner in Sole Power. Didn't back it though.