now Prima that was said over a month ago, and the betting on the 1st season championship heavilt indicated that HRE was going to win (matched to something like 1.2 abeit a very depressed market), at the time i took a gamble on hurricane run at 26 and 28's as he had nothing run yet and similar support to HRE and was a late 2year old himself but upon reflection he'll have many runners in france being a french trained horse and all, Zoffany was excellant in the curragh very impressed by the turn of foot to come betweeen the 2 challenegrs byt glor na mara really impresses, given how his debut was in a G3 and he looked very green and to really pushed in the last furlong was impressive.

SO going back to the orginal statement, who's been the best 1st seanon sire?

I generally only do season sire statistics twice a year, as nothing more frequent produces good enough sample sizes. First season sires are always the trickiest, in both predicting in advance, what they should produce and assessing the progeny on the ground, especially with very small sample sizes.

One of the boring statistical methods I use is amount a stallion upgrades/downgrades his mares. By their very nature, mares that are having their first foal run cannot be assessed. The leading first season sire figures as of 26 June 2010 are below (I hope it pastes in a legible manner).


Sire                Runs    Avg. Rating    Mare Upgrade (%)
Ifraaj                  56    63            -0.91
Holy Roman Emperor    65    68            11.2
Librettist          23    64             1.58
Kodiac                  40    61            10.6
Aussie Rules          33    63            11.94
Diamond Green          46    58            -4.39
Sleeping Indian          44    58             4.84
Proclamation          36    53            -9.00
Indesatchel          33    54             8.22
Ivan Denisovich          30    61             9.34
Ad Valorem          35    53           -11.5
Iceman                  62    50           -18.56

DMCK     11 Aug 10 22:31 
cant really agree with HRE upgrading hismares a whopping 11% but am delighted to see aussie rules has good stats, i like him and think he is overlooked given his family


I think I should clarify how the mare ratings are calculated. They are purely an assessment of the mare’s abilities as a broodmare, their race record has no bearing, and they are not being assessed as racehorses.
All mares are assessed for a rating against their peers and cover quality. For instance, a mare, some who were contributors on the Hearts of Fire/Firebreak thread might recognise, called Dayville (2nd dam to HOF) is a good example. She has produced nothing exceptional, highest rated 100, but in general her progeny substantially outperform the median for the progeny of their respective sires, and with little statistical deviation. She has a mare rating of 1.24 with 1.00 being the norm.
Urban Sea the dam of Sea the Stars, Galileo etc. has an average rating of 1.36; the consistent mare Ffestioniog outperforms her on 1.39. Not because Ffestiniog’s progeny are better, but how they compare to her coverings which have been, until recently, of a lower quality than those of Urban Sea.  Her progeny have outperformed the median  of her coverings by a marginally greater percentage than those of Urban Sea.
As I mentioned first season sires are the hardest to quantify, not least because of the small sample sizes making sound assessments difficult. In addition, we can only assess them in terms of mare upgrading against their two year old records. We rate mares for two, three, and four year old plus categories.

Well at least if Ifraaj does land it, he has had a ton of winners so it won't be quite as distorted and irritating as the usual skewing effect of the sales races.

i think we'll see how good hurricane run is as a 2year old sire over the next month

im not saying any 2year group prospects but like todays JSB's winner, he should get a fair few winners to numbers ratio and we'll have a clearer of her 3year old crop

I reckon this horse will end up going down the route that was pencilled in for his sire BEFORE he turned into a very good stallion,

Yeah sure that's a poss',being a son of Montjeu coming from a German stamina laden family I will be surprised if he really makes it as a flat sire he is in the best place to give him that chance,but if later he is switched then he would be a very high class edition for the jumps market,I suspect his connections are not unaware of this either [;)]