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push
19 Feb 10 07:25
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Date Joined: 25 Jun 04
| Topic/replies: 2,672 | Blogger: push's blog
We are on the correct forum for this subject now.
The question asked was " where will Workforce get the speed from in his pedigree to win the 2000 Guineas " ?
The very same question could of been asked about his sire Kings Best, by Kingmambo , out of a mare who is a full sister to a German St Leger winner. Indeed Kings Best himself is half brother to an Arc winner Urban Sea.
Another example of a Mr P sireline stallion , out of a stout N.Dancer line mare is Twice Over ( this one bugs me as i backed him at massive odds for the 2000 G ). It must have been his class that allowed him to win over 1m 2f as a 2yo, because he has not won over further since.Twice Over came out as a 3yo and won the Craven Stakes beating Ravens Pass in the process, then incredibly they went to the Dante to follow the Derby route instead of going for the Guineas, after the Dante they decided he would not stay the Derby trip, and dropped him back to 1 mile for the St James Palace.
Stubbs Art who Twice Over beat in the Zetland stakes , went on to finish 3rd in the Guineas , so the form was confirmed.
Back to Workforce, the maiden race he won was probably not that good a race but from the worse draw possible Workforce won and watching the race Workforce hit the front at the 6f marker, so imho i think Workforce does show speed whether he is good enough to win the Guineas is another question. He will need to make plenty of improvement, and progress from 2 to 3 years.
But it is not impossible given past performances of M.Stoutes horses.
Golan once raced maiden winner as a 2yo wins the 2000G on his next start.
Tarten Bearer, 2nd in his only race as a 2yo, then wins the Dante and 2nd in the Derby.
Kings Best after the Guineas had to miss the Derby due to a slight setback, and then pulled up on his next start in the Irish Derby, this is why i believe Stoute is taking his time with Workforce as he too may be fragile ?
Anyway there is lots to look forward to , bring it on !
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Report push February 19, 2010 10:36 AM GMT
Tamayuz, high class miler from a few yars ago by Nayef ( 11.0 f ), his dam is from the family of Urban Sea, Galileo ,Kings Best, when sent to the Mr P sire line perhaps they get milers ?
Report push February 19, 2010 1:38 PM GMT
The closest Mr P line has come to winning the Derby was the mighty Hawk Wing ( 2nd ).
Report push February 19, 2010 2:35 PM GMT
The mighty Dubai Millennium, by Seeking The Gold ( Mr P line ), was out of a ND line mare that won over 14f at Grp2 level yet DMillennium turns out to be a miler as a 3yo.
Report ben10 February 19, 2010 2:40 PM GMT
Do think you could be on to something about King's Bests with stoutly bred mares, seems a definite pattern of them not seeing out 12f.
Report push February 19, 2010 2:43 PM GMT
:)
Report push February 19, 2010 2:43 PM GMT
Look out Ben , i am working on foaling dates for the Derby !
Report push February 19, 2010 9:05 PM GMT
Well Ben10, seeing how you are the only one on this forum, do you think Workforce is going to get the Derby trip ?
Report ben10 February 19, 2010 9:20 PM GMT
I'm not sure, haven't had a really good look through but King's Best with staying dam sires doesn't yield strong stayers from a quick glance. Thing is I like combining pedigrees with race evidence and he needed to be asked to keep up wth the field in his maiden so you could argue a mile at 3 might be difficult for him plus he kept going for a long way after the line, that said maybe he just didn't get what was going on. If I was to say he was a 10f horse at 3 I think they may get away with the Derby trip because there seems more and more speed bred into Derby horses (Authorized, New Approach and Sea The Stars all best at 10f) and classy horses can cope with the extra distance to a point. Also I can envisage a relatively slow pace as St Nicholas Abbey's turn of foot would be well suited to that (like at Donny) so there won't be an O'Brien pacemaker if Ballydoyle want SNA to win which will also suit Workforce if he does have doubts.
One thing I'm pretty sure on is he's something to look forward to this year.
Report push February 19, 2010 9:26 PM GMT
The Goodwood run was his first race, so although he needed to be pushed along to keep up , i am hoping it was 1, Because he was green , 2, Being trained by M.Stoute i dont believe he would have been tuned up for his debut run.
But i could easily be wrong about that.
Report ben10 February 19, 2010 9:31 PM GMT
I think that's a fair point and got to be taken under consideration.
Report ben10 February 19, 2010 9:39 PM GMT
Must admit, all things considered, that 20/1 looks tempting for the Guineas, his chance of coping with a mile and potential class makes him shorter in my book, in particular when the hype builds (only the 2 and half months to go!).
Report push February 19, 2010 9:52 PM GMT
A word of warning Ben, i also thought that Stoutes 2yo from a few years ago Confront was going to be a good 3yo, had a complete disasterous season at 3, they gelded him and won FTO as a 4yo at 10-1, and since then he has done nothing but improve.
Report ben10 February 19, 2010 9:55 PM GMT
Confront definitely had mental problems, remember him dogging it against Mac Love at Epsom, think they sorted him out in the end but obviously too late. Not sure you should significantly build that into a horses price unless he's shown signs of that which Workforce certainly hasn't.
Report push February 19, 2010 9:59 PM GMT
I think Stoute will aim Confront or Zacinto at the the 1 mile Lockinge Stakes ( their owner sponsers the race i think ).
Report ben10 February 19, 2010 10:03 PM GMT
Will they have Rip to take them on in that do you think?
Report push February 19, 2010 10:06 PM GMT
Yes if they can get him ready in time. But i expect he will be a short price if he turns up.
Report ben10 February 19, 2010 10:09 PM GMT
Oh yeah, people will latch on to the Hawk Wing comparisons!
Report push February 19, 2010 10:12 PM GMT
O Brien, had that Aus horse in the race 2 years ago was near fave then drifted out to about 8-1 , so we knew he was not ready / fully tuned for the race.
Report ben10 February 19, 2010 10:17 PM GMT
Yeah remember that, won the Queen Anne next time out. Haradsun was it?
Report push February 19, 2010 10:22 PM GMT
That s right, then retired.
Report ben10 February 19, 2010 10:30 PM GMT
Yeah, is he covering this breeding season do you know? I know they wanted him to go back to Oz for their breeding season.
Report ben10 February 19, 2010 10:31 PM GMT
covering here
Report push February 19, 2010 10:32 PM GMT
By that F.Pegasus, paid alot of money for that horse, has been disappointing at stud really.
Report ben10 February 19, 2010 10:38 PM GMT
Yeah down to $15k, sure he was loads higher than that in the past. Has a 2 year old out of Makybe Diva to come this year though which is quite surprising, she went to Encosta De Lago the following year and Galileo the year before!
I think he's best trying to get sprinters, possibly been bred with wrong type of mares.
Report push February 19, 2010 10:41 PM GMT
How much did they pay for him ?
Report push February 19, 2010 10:44 PM GMT
Was it 30 million dollars ?
Report ben10 February 19, 2010 10:46 PM GMT
Double that
Report ben10 February 19, 2010 10:47 PM GMT
In 2000, Fusaichi Pegasus was sold to Irish breeder Coolmore Stud for a reported price of more than US$60 million (£35m). The previous record for a stallion prospect was US$40m (£24m), paid in 1983 for Shareef Dancer. For several years, Fusaichi Pegasus served as a "shuttle stallion" standing at Coolmore's Ashford Stud near Versailles, Kentucky during the Northern Hemisphere breeding season and at Coolmore Australia near Jerrys Plains, New South Wales during the Southern Hemisphere breeding season, but as of the 2010 breeding season stands exclusively in Kentucky.
Report ben10 February 19, 2010 10:49 PM GMT
Found an article from 2006 that says he was covering for $150000, to be 10% of that now is quite embarrassing
Report ben10 February 19, 2010 10:50 PM GMT
Can't win them all I guess :D
Report push February 20, 2010 6:15 AM GMT
At the price they paid , it does not make economic sence, especially as he was an unproven sire.
Report push February 20, 2010 5:46 PM GMT
Smart Strike , a sire from the Mr Prospector line that does get 1m4f horses ( 11.7 f) stamina index.
Report Eont February 21, 2010 10:28 PM GMT
Smart Stikes stamina index is down to af ew runners and Tungeston Strike who was by a Generous mare. Though he did sire English Channel (Theatrical mare) but he seemed best at 11f on that tight track he won the BC race on.
Report ben10 February 21, 2010 10:33 PM GMT
I can't work out how the stamina index is calculated, was looking at a maiden tomorrow and Oratorio has a stamina index of 9.7; considering he's not had any fully developed 3 year olds how do they know that's the optimum trip of his progeny?
Report push February 22, 2010 5:45 AM GMT
Yes Ben , i had spotted the stamina index for Oratorio ( strange ).
Report push February 22, 2010 5:56 AM GMT
No Derby for Workforce !
Report Equimine.co.uk February 22, 2010 7:39 AM GMT
Another "Index" I don't like for two reasons, it doesn't measure performance and assumes once again only the sire counts in the equation.
I believe Stamina Index and Average Winning Distance are the same thing. Therefore, it is based on number of wins not the performance.So a horse winning a 5 furlong "seller" or " low grade auction maiden" will affect the SI or AWD. But coming second in the Dewhurst say won't.
Report push February 22, 2010 11:42 AM GMT
How can the average winning distance of Oratorios stock be ( 9.3 f) when he has no ( or not many ) runners over that far a distance ?
Report ben10 February 22, 2010 1:30 PM GMT
Agree push, makes no sense; Shamardal's is 6.7 which is also rubbish
Report Equimine.co.uk February 22, 2010 2:01 PM GMT
push,

The RP (guessing your source) site is not known for accuracy of this type of data.

Whilst I do not agree with the SI or AWD method. I have it at 6.79
This is based upon winners over the following 1 winner @ 5, 5 winners @ 6, 6 winners @ 7, 2 winners @ 8.

Hope that helps.
Report ben10 February 22, 2010 2:22 PM GMT
Yeah but the Shamardals appeared to be improving for a mile towards the end of their 2 year old careers, fair enough that's probably about right for them as two year olds but you can't go on that as they develop because at the moment it implies he's going to have sprinters which is simply not true.
Report Equimine.co.uk February 22, 2010 2:24 PM GMT
I should add those numbers I have quoted are for Oratorio
Report ben10 February 22, 2010 2:24 PM GMT
Oh right sorry
Report push February 22, 2010 4:15 PM GMT
Thanks for explaining that Equimine, 6.79 f seems more like it, dont know how the RP can that the figure so wrong. Are they taking into account his runners from other countries ? ( assuming he has some ).
Report Equimine.co.uk February 23, 2010 8:50 AM GMT
The figures I have used for Oratorio are the same the RP would have used.

He has had five other wins 2 in Italy, 1 in Sweden, New Zealand and Australia. They have been twice @ 5f, once at 5 1/2f and 6 3/4f and 7 1/2 f.

These victories would lower his AWD to 6.44.
Report Tidalbay February 23, 2010 12:23 PM GMT
i take it your a huge WORKFORCE fan then push
Report push February 23, 2010 3:20 PM GMT
Well Tidalbay, it is still all about potential with Workforce, yes i have backed him for the Guineas , but i also have backed quite a few from the O Brien stable. Just hoping Workforce does not do a CONFRONT and miss all the 3yo season, before becoming a good horse as a 4yo.
Report Tidalbay February 23, 2010 6:08 PM GMT
watch for stouteys LONGLINER could be well h,capped
Report push February 23, 2010 6:34 PM GMT
cheers Tidalbay.
Report push March 31, 2010 12:27 PM BST
Workforce on course for the Craven ?
Report Me2 April 1, 2010 9:31 PM BST
Hi, don't often visit this section. Regarding Racing Post Stamina Indices. These are the average distance of the races won by the progeny aged 3yo+ in Britain & Ireland (I think). The Shamardal one quoted earlier in the thread was probably based upon 4 or 5 wins so far this year. It will change as time goes by.
Report Stormbird April 2, 2010 8:30 AM BST
Tom Segel , thinks Workforce will need cut in the ground for the 2000Guineas, but so should the fave.
Report ben10 April 2, 2010 6:07 PM BST
Not sure about that tbh
Report push April 12, 2010 7:22 PM BST
See Workforce has been cut by most firms today for the Derby.
Report Prima Donna April 12, 2010 7:32 PM BST
Do you think they know something?perhaps M R Stoute is going to take Workforce to NMKT as a Derby trail,I do like him but he has got a slow pedigree.
Report push April 12, 2010 7:39 PM BST
Yes and so did Kings Best.
Report push April 12, 2010 7:40 PM BST
What i think is if he runs well in the Guineas his price for the Derby will be alot shorter.
Report Prima Donna April 12, 2010 7:48 PM BST
Yes Push I could see that happening too,Slower pedigree than KB.
Report push April 12, 2010 7:51 PM BST
How do you work that out ? Kingmambo has a stamina index of 9.9f and Kings Best dam is a sister to a German St Leger winner .
Report Prima Donna April 12, 2010 7:58 PM BST
What I would say is he has all of his staying family and then add KB along with his thats where I think its slower than KB on his own.
Report Stormbird April 12, 2010 8:02 PM BST
Only time will tell, not long now.
Report Stormbird April 13, 2010 8:38 PM BST
Looking at the pictures of Workforce he does look like a middle distance horse to the eye rather than a miler.
Report Stormbird April 25, 2010 4:02 PM BST
Good winner in the French Derby trial for Kings Best and with Workforce going for a Derby trial , could be a good year for the sire.
Report notenough April 27, 2010 1:19 PM BST
Even if one of them wins a Derby,Kings Best is dead in the water commercially.

Come to think of it, there are only a handful of owner breeders who will use him either.
Report Stormbird May 10, 2010 6:26 AM BST
Looking forward to seeing this chap on Thursday, expect him to be 7-2 for the Derby if he wins the Dante.
Report push May 31, 2010 5:20 PM BST
Plenty of money on BF waiting to get on Workforce for the Derby. Looking forward to see if he stays 1m4f.
Report notenough June 2, 2010 2:30 PM BST
I think ground is a bigger factor... wants it softer than is likely imo.
Report push June 5, 2010 4:10 PM BST
Mr P has his Derby winner at last.
Report ben10 June 5, 2010 4:18 PM BST
Yeah very nice, I sort of convinced myself he wouldn't like fast ground despite what I said above! Were you on push?
Can't believe I backed him for the Guineas :_|
Report push June 5, 2010 4:39 PM BST
Only on by default Ben, thought he would win the Guineas , so also backed him for the Derby because his price would contract with a good run in the 2000G. Did lay half my Derby bet on him off at shorter prices but still a good result. Have to say did not think being from the Mr P line that he would stay , but after his Dante run , looked to be staying on in that race, Now what about CAPE BLANCO ? I know he might not stay 1m4f but at least he would have liked the ground.
Report redal2 June 5, 2010 6:47 PM BST
I have a question for you more knowledgeable types on here. Workforce's half brother was beaten in April by no less than 111 lengths (yes 3 ones) in a novice hurdle at Chepstow. Is it usual for such a high class horse to have siblings of such modest ability?
Report potentialmillionaire June 5, 2010 7:25 PM BST
Unusual not too more like! No, I suppose some mares are pretty consistent winner producers but the large majority chuck out more than one duffer. Urban Sea, Hasili, Fall Aspen, Brocade they all had their 'blips'
Report redal2 June 5, 2010 9:04 PM BST
Thanks. Yes I thought so but that really surprised me when I looked at it Grin
Report DMCK October 3, 2010 6:48 PM BST
i know it was a bog in paris, but i was impressed by WF today, watched it on bbc and really didnt like how he looked when he was beside bekebad on the slowmo camera. He is a Arc and derby winning 3yr old and i feel he'll be sent to stud after a possible tilt at the BCT which he really should win to put to bed questions about his race preformances
Report potentialmillionaire October 3, 2010 7:03 PM BST
Well it's Sunday eve so devils advocate needs an airing.

I think there are question marks for the commercial breeder about Workforce, but I think that they will remain whatever happens and it will come down to preferences.

However I think that the Derby and Arc are such incredibly difficult races, the former being a particular graveyard, that any horse that can do the double has nothing left to prove to me in the pantheon of Racehorses. Great effort terrific horse. They don't all need to be Sea The Stars to enjoy them.
Report DMCK October 4, 2010 12:57 PM BST
every proper racehorse is aimed for the derby regardless if he really stays the trip, the Arc is of the same basis, generally 4yr olds are given light campaigns as to keep the horse fresh for the 1st sunday of october. therefore the arc and derby are to me and many others apart of the 5most important races in europe.
pm i loved what you said how every G1 winner cant be the next STS.
for me Workforce really has a great chance of being commericial and successful, Juddmonte will market and price him carefully and he'll get plenty of nice homebreeds. one point i will make is that i would like him to have a g1 win over 10f just to show he has a bit of speed
Report neill d October 4, 2010 3:15 PM BST
He's supposed to be ugly though isn't he, and breeders do have to look at their stock
Report DMCK October 4, 2010 3:52 PM BST
from the bbc slowmo camera that was focusing on bekehbad and got a small bit of WF he is certainly no George Washington
Report GANT007 October 4, 2010 8:26 PM BST
When he was broken in Ireland the boys in ferrans lock always said he would be a proper racehorse.
Report potentialmillionaire October 4, 2010 8:34 PM BST
That's interesting GANT007. Is that a statement made like these urban myths so often are, with the benefit of hinsight?

Is your source reliable? !!
Report GANT007 October 5, 2010 11:07 AM BST
Condescending or what.........I live near the place, know many lads who work there and believe me they put their money down.
Report potentialmillionaire October 5, 2010 5:51 PM BST
Condescension was the last thing on my mind GANT007 so please accept my apologies. I hoped the double exclamation marks at the end would have kept the note light.

I certainly find that my opinions at any one time can look altered after the event! - hence my 'lighthearted' comment.

I hope your mates had a good go on Sunday. It was certainly a good price for a Derby winner of his callibre.
Report Prima Donna October 5, 2010 6:17 PM BST
I would be surprised if Workforce retires to Juddmonte,being a son of Kings Best who has got question marks over him in terms of being commercial,but saying that he has done well in Japan,so with Workforce beating a top Japanese runner the other day I could see a sale to Japan on the horizon,he would hold his most appeal to them.
Being on the big side and from such a stamina laden family I doubt he will have big appeal to breeders over here,as a prospect he is unlikely to get the ever popular 2'y old types.Remember his connections were quick enough to sell the '93 Derby winner Commander in Chief who you could say had more appeal than Workforce.
Report potentialmillionaire October 5, 2010 8:04 PM BST
Mm. I hadn't given this much thought, but adding Quest for Fame and Sanglamore to the 'moved on moved out' list I suppose this is a possibility. Commander in Chief did have confirmation issues didn't he, and I don't really have a handle on Workforce really. If he did impress the breaking boys at Ferrans then that would be in his favour as an early athletic indicator perhaps.

I've a feeling in my bones Juddmonte want to hold on to him. However lightly raced Kings Best would be the worst type of Kings Best, so I'd like to see him running a bit more.
Report GANT007 October 5, 2010 8:59 PM BST
Potentialmillionaire.....It's me who should apologise as I know your form and enjoy reading your posts.

A few of them had a nice touch anti post for the derby and played up a few quid on the arc.
The chap who is in charge of the feeding reckons this years bunch are the nicest he has seen in a while....Juddmonte deserve all the luck they get..they run a good ship over there.
Report potentialmillionaire October 5, 2010 9:13 PM BST
You're right there 007, for such a large operation the Juddmonte team really seem to keep it tight. (Excepting the odd d.o.b. faux pas!)
Report Prima Donna October 6, 2010 6:33 AM BST
I've a feeling in my bones Juddmonte want to hold on to him.

Do you see them standing him Pot M?If they do keep hold of him imo poss' only to race but I hold to view he will head off to Japan once we are finished with him on the racecourse.
Report Prima Donna October 6, 2010 1:04 PM BST
potentialmillionaire     05 Oct 10 20:04 
Commander in Chief did have confirmation issues didn't he,


I don't know I can remember him winning the Derby,I can also remember thinking looking at him in the winners enclosure after his victory he was a super looking colt,I can't remember now but I think Juddmonte sold him off pretty cheaply in the end,a shame as he had a superb pedigree.
Report potentialmillionaire October 6, 2010 7:17 PM BST
I had thought that C in C was bigtime over at the knee and wasn't necessarily expected to get down the hill at Epsom? I would have thought that if he was nice, the Japanese would have needed to pay quite well for him a la Harbinger? Who knows, we need to get a life perhaps. . .Laugh

I do think perhaps that they would like to stand Workforce. But as I said earlier it's only a hunch. If they are fond of the horse then they only need to pitch him right to keep him full.
I think perhaps he has more appeal than Rail Link?
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